Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Jat passenger decline eases

Jat still waiting for growth

Jat Airways has failed to put to an end to its sliding passenger numbers, recording lower figures for a fifth consecutive month, though the rate of decline has eased compared to previous months. Numerous flights were cancelled throughout June as a result of the carrier’s fleet shortage which had a direct impact on its figures. In June, Jat welcomed 134.624 passengers, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the same month last year. The average cabin load factor stood at 70%, down four points.

Services to Montenegro were hardest hit with the airline operating 23% fewer flights than last year. As a result, passenger numbers were down 9%. On Euro-Mediterranean flights the airline performed somewhat better with a 2% passenger decrease while the average load factor amounted to 70%. Charter services were once again the carrier’s strong point with a 23% passenger increase compared to the same month last year. In the first half of 2013, Jat handled 556.559 passengers, a decrease of 3%. The average cabin load factor over the past six months amounted to 68%, down from last year’s 72%. Overall, services to and from Montenegro have been most affected with a 15% decline in the number of operated flights resulting in a 9% passenger decrease.

In June, Jat’s busiest scheduled service was Paris, followed by Moscow in second place and Tivat in third. During last month, Jat’s fastest growing route, recording the biggest increase in passenger numbers, was Brussels. Similarly, Paris was the Serbian carrier’s busiest route in the first half of the year. Overall, Jat remains Belgrade Airport’s busiest airline, maintaining a market share of 37%.

MonthPAXChange (%)Average load factor (%)
JAN77.962 463
FEB61.341 259
MAR82.395 170
APR90.844 1667
MAY109.393 373
JUN134.624 0.370


  1. I am hoping that from this winter season they will introduce flights to Ljubljana. I am supposed to visit Slovenia in November and it would be cool to fly with them.
    Adria sends their crappy CRJs, no thank you.

    1. I am glad, that Jat will introduce some new routes and get new fleet!

      But, why do you think that Adria´s CRJ is crappy?

      You wan´t to say, that their CRJ is more crappy than Jat´s ATR ? :S

    2. It has nothing to do with Adria, that aircraft is horrible. It was initially designed as a business jet so when the Canadians decided to offer it as a commercial jet, they needed to increase te space under the cabin without moving up the windows. So now the seats are way too high in comparison with the windows and you really have to bend to look out. Unless you are really short.
      I flew on them countless times back in the day when they used to be a regular visitor thanks to Austrian Airlines.

      Also, since when is the Atr a horrible aircraft? For a one hour hop it is perfectly fine and comfortable. However, on longer routes it gets tiring.

    3. ...also Jat's ATRs have new interiors so I don't see what is so crappy about them.

    4. Jat already had the service to Ljubljana, I was regular user because it was every time around 50€ cheaper then Adria, but, gues what, it was constanty EMPTY. That's why it has gone. Even Adria today, with no concurention, has difficulties with that line, probably because of crisis in Slovenia.
      I am not an aviation expert, but on my last flight to LJU there was 12 pax. 12!!! That is really saying something, although it was better on the way back. I do not believe that LJU could be profitable for Jat.

  2. CR9 is ok and if you are lucky like today JP operates a CR9 to BEG

    But the downwards trend will end as of November.
    10 new A319 with a new brand, new design, new Service will Change the world from dark to bright :-)

    1. Yes, the CRJ is slightly better but I hate the fact that the front is considerably lower than the back. Also, the cabin is way too narrow.

      I am sure that if the numbers between Belgrade and Ljubljana were as high as before the crisis we would have seen a daily A319. Back then there were around 80 O&D passengers per day and if you add some connections voila... an A319.

    2. JP upgraded its Belgrade flight to an A319!
      They probably read your complaint here on the blog...
      ; )

    3. :D :D
      I should re-post the same thing a day before I fly to LJU in November!

    4. :D
      Good luck!

  3. as of 01.08. JU and AB start codesharing (

    1. Shame there are no flights to US West Coast.
      TXL sits almost perfectly on the route from BEG to LAX/SFO.

    2. Some schedule coordination is needed to make the most of codeshare agreement. As it is now, JAT's morning flight arrives at TXL at 09:45, while AB flights to US from TXL are:

      LAX 09:45 (inbound 11:00)
      ORD 10:00 (inbound 07:00)
      JFK 13:00 (inbound 07:25)

      If JAT's flight was moved an hour earlier they could also connect to ORD and LAX. After all, most of Serbian diaspora is in Chicago area. Perhaps adding another flight midday to TXL, or alternatively move JAT's DUS flight to accommodate passengers connecting from LAX.
      LAX flight arrived at arrives at DUS at 13:35. Currently, JAT's flight departs from DUS at 11:05.

    3. If they get enough demand for connecting travel, it will be easy to introduce more flights to TXL/DUS. My impression is that existing flight cater mostly to O&D market

  4. OT:

    Croatia Airlines loses the monopoly!

    Trade Air to start Zagreb - Osijek - Zagreband Rijeka - Split - Dubrovnik - Split - Rijeka flights

    1. Great news, great news for Zagreb airport, the airlines is Sun Adria and they've got 3 Foker 100, perfect aircraft for domestic and regions routes.

      Croatia Airlines is good, but we need more competition in form of domestic airlines.

    2. actually, two are operational (9A-BTD & 9A-BTE) and one is stored (9A-BTF)

    3. I am not too optimistic about this. They need their fares to be similar to those offered by bus and train companies. Unfortunately with the current price of petrol and the fuel consumption of the Fokker I doubt this route will stay for long.

      Will they be able to feed OU's network in Zagreb? Why not Osijek-Dubrovnik?

    4. Split and Dubrovnik connected to Rijeka is a must especially during the tourist season but not in a F-100.

      Same goes with Osijek - Zagreb flights.

      EMB-120 or equivalent would be a perfect fit for this.

    5. Ex-You would need some more "national" lines:

      Zagreb-Osijek (daily)
      Osijek-Pula (seasonal)
      Rijeka-Dubrovnik (seasonal)
      Rijeka-Split (seasonal)
      Pula-Split (seasonal)
      Pula-Dubrovnik (seasonal)

      Ljubljana-Split (seasonal)
      Ljubljana-Dubrovnik (seasonal)
      Ljubljana-Tivat (seasonal)

      Sarajevo-Banja Luka (temporary forbidden for B&H Airlines)
      Sarajevo-Tuzla (fot connecting flights) (today 19-25 buses)
      Sarajevo-Mostar (for connecting flights)(today 20-25 buses)
      Sarajevo-Bihac (in case of constructing of an airport in Zeljava Airbase) (today 5-7 buses, 10 h route)
      Sarajevo-Skopje (2-3 flights weekly)
      Sarajevo-Pristina (2-7 flights weekly due to big albanian diaspora in Sarajevo)
      Sarajevo-Tivat (seasonal)
      Sarajevo-Split (seasonal) (today 5 buses)

      Banja Luka-Tivat (seasonal)
      Banja Luka-Split (seasonal)
      Banja Luka-Belgrade (daily)

      Mostar-Zagreb (daily)
      Mostar-Tuzla (daily) (today 4 buses, but journey time:6h)

      Tuzla-Split (seasonal) (today 2 buses, journey time: 9h)
      Tuzla-Pula (seasonal) (today 2 buses, journey time: 10 h)
      Tuzla-Zagreb (daily) (today 5 buses, journey time: 5h)

      Belgrade-Split (all year)
      Belgrade-Zagreb (daily)
      Belgrade-Zadar (seasonal)
      Belgrade-Nis (daily) (daily 44-48 buses)
      Belgrade-Kraljevo (daily)

    6. Why should anyone in the world take a plane from Osijek to Zagreb? Ohterhand, Pula is so delocated that it would be wise to have an allaroundyear connection with zagreb and the south. if the exyugoslavian societies grow more together, there will be new lines needed. Today we have some 5 BEG-TIV flights even during the winter, and no flight from Belgrade to Split or Dubrovnik out of the season. Broken societies.

    7. The regional routes BEG/Jat needs more than all others are those to the coast:
      daily to Dubrovnik
      daily to Split
      daily to Pula

      For Ljubljana,Nis ;Kraljevo and especially Banja Luka i foresee
      bad numbers and cancellation of these routes.
      Banja Luka flights are definitely the idea of the government not of Etihad...

  5. Danas je 17. jul a oni o buducoj letnjoj sezoni.

  6. I´m not getting the point of the tone of this article. The decrease of passanger number is economically relevant figure only if the provided service input is the same. If you are for instance offering 10 beds in private accomodation, than it is a relevant figure if you have sold 8 beds in 2011 or maybe 5 beds in 2013. And even so, the question is: was the cause of the decrase bed marketing, bed service od maybe bad market´s year. The cause of passanger number decrases in JAT´s case is the cutting of the timetable and offer. So if the company has cuted 20% of flights, there is nothing sensational or interesting in the news that the passanger number has decreased. The real point and problem is the cutting itself, and regarding the fact that the flights are cut because the planned and realistic timetable didn´t get a govorment support for renting of additional plane, the case is clear, and there is no point to put every month out, that there is a decrease in passanger numbers.

    1. How do you then explain the drop in passenger load factor (PLF)? Whichever way you may want to spin this, the bottom line is passenger numbera are down, plf is down, therefore more likely than not income is down (and probably losses are up). You can't run away from this. Let's hope this situation changes in the coming months.

    2. The passangers load factor depands on plane types and seet configuration as well. If they have more boings flying than 1 or 2 year ago, and more ATRs, than the PLF may decrease even if they have more passangers. They have also canceled FULL flights to TIvat in order not to cancel "sensitive" tranfser and codeshare flights such as London or Moscow - despite the fact that those flights are not full. And this also bring the decrase of PLF. Just face it - the analysis here has nothing to do with professionalaty.

  7. Why will JAT soon lease two B737-300s from Bulgraia for ONE year period, if additional 733 eqp is necessary for 2013 summer season only? Perhaps few JU 733s will need to stay during winter at JAT Tehnika? Shall we see 2013/14 two fleets: current JU 733/AT7 fleet, and "EY" A319/DH8...???

    1. Because once the decision is made to go A319 Jat wont get them the next day. It will be at least 1 to 2 years from when the decision is made until Jat has at least half of the A319's they require.

      It still is a very popular aircraft and there is a huge order backlog for the A320 family aircraft type of about 4500 aircraft. Question is how much sooner with Etihad's influence can Jat expect first deliveries. It might still be years before they can operate a full Airbus fleet so they have to still rely on the 737's for a few more years.

    2. The say is that Jat will retire its Boeing fleet immediately.
      It will take some years before Jat will get its own A319/320
      but in the time before they will operate leased ones i think.

  8. Its such a shame that BA does not fly to BEG, they had a 70 to 80 percent cabin occupnacy. Now look at this pic which was taken on BA Amsterdam route and still they dont consider BEG

    1. Not true, in the period between 2006 and their withdrawal from Belgrade, British Airways scored the best loadfactor of 66% the summer when they decided to axe the route.

  9. JAT is consolidating its business these days, in July they will carry out nearly 20% more flights versus last year. They will see roughly 3%, maybe even 4% more passengers compared to July 2012 ! No more decrease.


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