Monday, May 4, 2015

Croatia Airlines to lease two E190 jets

Croatia Airlines to add up to six aircraft over the next four years

Croatia Airlines will lease two Embraer E190 aircraft next year and is considering opening bases outside of its home country. According to the daily “Večernji list”, the carrier plans to expand its fleet with four to six jets over the next four years. The plans are in line with earlier statements made by the airline’s CEO, Krešimir Kučko, who has spoken of the need to add 100-seat jets to the carrier’s fleet. “If Croatia Airlines was to buy more aircraft today it would choose an Embraer model”, Mr. Kučko said recently. A 100-seat aircraft would be best suited for the airline as it could operate with greater cost efficiency during the slow winter months and open up new markets during the summer.

Croatia Airlines has never operated Embraer jets in its 26-year history and would make it the third aircraft type in its fleet, alongside Airbus and Bombardier. Over the past several weeks, the carrier has concluded short-term leases of Montenegro Airlines’ E190 jet in order to ease its fleet shortage problems, as several of its aircraft are undergoing maintenance. However, the lease has also been arranged in order for the airline to study the aircraft’s performance ahead of the lease. The E190 can seat 94 passengers in a two-class configuration. Montenegro Airlines is the former Yugoslavia’s only Embraer operator, with both the E190 and E195 versions in its fleet. With the addition of the two aircraft, the airline is also contemplating opening bases outside of Croatia, with Sarajevo considered as a front-runner.

According to “Večernji list”, Croatia Airlines is also expected to enter talks with Mitsubishi over the possible purchase of the Japanese manufacturer’s new twin-engine regional jet, the MRJ90, which has the capacity to seat ninety passengers. The cost-efficient aircraft is expected to perform its maiden flight this year, with deliveries to follow in 2017. There are currently over 200 orders for the jet. The MRJ90 is being considered by Croatia Airlines as a replacement for its six Dash 8 Q400s.

The Croatian carrier currently counts twelve aircraft in its fleet - six Bombardier Dash 8s, four A319s and two A320s. Furthermore, it has an order for a further four A319s. The 175-million euro deal with the European aircraft manufacturer was made in 2008. Although the new jets were originally to be delivered by the end of 2013, their arrival has been postponed due to the airline’s financial situation. “We are in discussions with Airbus regarding our order and I am very pleased that they have recognised the situation our company is in, as well as our demands. We are counting on and want to continue our cooperation with them. However, the delivery of these aircraft currently depends on a range of factors”, Mr. Kučko said last month. The addition of new aircraft will be followed by the introduction of new destinations. The airline plans to put a greater emphasis on the Eastern European market following the completion of its restructuring program at the end of this year, which has limited its opportunities for network growth over the past four years.

87 comments:

  1. Sounds good and exciting. Would be cool if the deal with Mitsubishi cld work out

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    1. Agree. That would be very cool

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    2. Dubrovnik Airport

      April 90 646 pax

      + 3,3%

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    3. I prefer CS100s, most efficient of the lot, and cheap too, at $55 million deal can be made with bombardier for replacement for Q400s.

      Price tag should fall dramatically to $30-32 million range and agree 10 year lee to own contract for these 6 CS100s.

      With fleet of 6 CS100, 10 A319/320 airline should be better suited for Croatian needs.

      If there's a demand four additional CS100s can be purchased on lease to own contract after 20217, and if there's a demand after that for intercontinental flights an A330 200, 232 seat configured can be leased for summer seasons to bring in American and Canadian tourist. Lufthansa plans to retire some of its A330s and OU could get one cheap around 2020 for summer seasonal flights to New York, Toronto and Chicago.

      350 000 North American visitors are expected this year, (least) with 550-570 000 North American visitors expected by 2020 (very conservative estimates, real number could be twice that)

      The only problem with A330 is what to do in winter months when number of tourist to Croatia is barley 10% of summer months. Zagreb is dong well throughout the year but at least momentarily doesn't warrant an year round connection with north america. Perhaps by 2020 number of visitors will pass 2 million mark, and as American tourist constitute a quarter of all visitors to Zagreb, this might prove useful beyond 2020 for long term planning and year long intercontinental service to NYC and Toronto.

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  2. So we have Adria adding new jets, Croatia Airlines planning new aircraft and Air Serbia with A320neo order. Nice to see ex-Yu airlines developing.

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  3. Finally they are thinking about a Sarajevo base! They should have done this years ago. It is an underserved market with big potential and it helps that your former employee is running the show at the airport.

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    1. +1

      Everyone (absolutely everyone - Adria, Croatia and Jat) also had a chance in Skopje. This is now not an option with Wizz Air and a possible national airline.

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    2. +1 SJJ market has been prime for taking practically ever since TK left and TZL proved that the market is there, albeit price sensitive one. Whoever gets in there first will make some money.

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    3. ^ Agreed, however this won't happen until another plane can replace a Q400 based at SJJ. Apart from an additional ZAG rotation (making it 3-daily), destinations in the range for the aircraft include FCO, VIE, IST and ZRH (all within 500NM)

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  4. How are all these plans going to become a reality if OU gets a new owner by the end of they year? It seems like the management is certain there will be no change in ownership.

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  5. Good planes. Should have gone with them instead of Bombardier.

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  6. He he 3 razlicita tipa aviona? Ima se moze se. Kao da im Purger pravi strategiju.

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    1. Pa i JU ima 3 razlicita tipa aviona (A, B i ATR). Razlika je u prosecnoj starosti aviona (OU:11, JU:17god.)

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    2. JU има три различита зато што мора, наследио их је од Јата (737) неће их ваљда бацити. А OU има шансу да бира и поред свега тога додају и трећи тип правећи већи трошак.

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    3. JU is also a bigger company.

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  7. Slozili smo se da je B737 nepotreban visak ASLa.

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    1. Jesmo, ali su im ocigledno nezamenljivi. Lakse i vaznije je bilo zameniti iskusnije Jat kabinske posade nego 733 koji su po najavama iz 2013 trebali da lete do proleca 2014. U 733 otpadaju nasloni za ruke, ali zato su tu mlade stjuardese. Ipak solidan napredak.

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    2. Ja ionako ne letim sa asl-om.

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    3. Vasa stvar... Ipak obrazlozite, mozda je neki bitan razlog.

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    4. Anonymous May 4, 2015 at 12:11 PM, ozeni me. Jesam musko, nisu jos kod nas legalizovani gej brakovi (ukoliko si musko) ali ozeni me. Svaka cast! :D

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    5. Idi u s*x-shop i kupi sta Ti treba na moj racun...

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  8. Purger, what do you think about this? What is your suggestion for future OU fleet? Thanks.

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    1. From the very first day I was fighting for idea that Croatia Airlines needs 100-seater. And that is for sure the most important move they can do. And Croatia desperately needs those 100-seaters for AMS, CDG, BCN, BRU, CPH, ATH, even SKP and PRN to use them in wave for which Q400 is to slow to fit in timing of present midday wave. 100-seater will open possibility for new routes like HEL, ARN, OSL, DUS, MAN, MAD, SOF, WAW…

      In same time I strongly recommend Q400 (or ATR 72) as some of Croatia Airlines routes for sure are not for 100-seater jet (PUY, ZAD, BWK, SJJ, VIE, ZRH, FCO, even MUC, but in future also PRG, MXP, OMO, OTP). Even SKP, PRN, SOF and WAW could be served by Q400. But to use Q400 to BRU and CPH because Airbus is too big for those routes, is more than stupid. That plane is not designed and not profitable on those routes and for sure passengers will not be happy to fly more than 2 hours in Q400 so you loose potential passengers.

      Croatia also needs A319/A320. LHR and TLV cannot be done with Embraer. FRA, DBV and evening SPU are big enough to be served by Airbus. For sure you cannot fly charters with Embraer and to be profitable. In future they need Airbus for destinations like CAI, DME, and some Meddle East destinations. So because of that I will leave A319/A320 in fleet.

      But to lease just 2 Embraers is stupid, and to have 3 models in just 14 planes fleet is nonsense. If they have to decide on two planes I will never touch Q400 as Embraer is not alternative for turboprop. In that scenario Embraer will for sure be better option even that you fly with it to LHR (without profit), FRA, DBV and SPU (with more frequencies) and will not fly TLV and most of charters. But in same time you have Airbuses as owner. To sell them is stupid, isn't it? They bring you money and for sure you cannot sell them for enough money to buy alternative fleet of some 10 Embraers (with same seats number).

      If they need just two planes in 2016 and they plan to bring more 100-seaters in near future it would be much better that they use Trade air Fokker 100 for two years and than when they open more routes to bring 4-6 100-seater instead of Trade air. Personally I cannot understand why they don't use Trade air as franchiser with at least one Fokker and one Brasilia and to give them to fly for them routes like BWK-ZAD-ZAG, PUY-ZAG, ZAG-SKP, ZAG-OTP, ZAG-SOF, ZAG-BRU… Especially because on new routes (PRG, OTP, SOF…) Trade air wants to take all risk and only obligation to OU would be selling ticket by their system, code-share (with no minimum number of seats guarantee) and connections to PUY, ZAD, SPU, DBV, SJJ, SKP, PRN.

      Ideal fleet for Croatia is:
      6x Q400
      4x A319
      6x Embraer 190 (they can start with 4 of them)
      2x 30-seaters (like Brasilia) in franchise (Trade air)

      After that I would just buy Embraers.

      But in same time to plan to take Embraers (and I am almost sure those are Lufthansa ones of which some will go to Austrian) and than in 2-3 years to take MRJ on top of Embraers is more than stupid decision. To have 4th plane in fleet is suicide. To have Embraers on short lease and then to change plane (pilots, cabin crew, maintenance, spare parts...) is too expensive. So, I don’t understand that logic.

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    2. LHR and TLV cannot be done with Embraer.

      Say that to Lot. :D
      They regularly operate their E-175 to places like Tbilisi, Larnaca, Beirut...

      However, for the passenger it's a bit of a nightmare, especially if it's an overnight flight.

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    3. It is not a nightmare at all! When I flew LH from BEG to MUC on E195, it was much more comfortable than A346 that I had on MUC - ORD leg.

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    4. Embraer is a wonderful aircraft but not for longer flights. When I wrote that it was horrible I meant on the longer flights like WAW-LCA which is over three hours.

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    5. Believe me, it is much more comfortable than A340 - 600 that I had to spend more than 9 hour on... That's why I'm saying , I would not have a problem to be on that plane for 3 hours or more. Which is not the case for Dash od ATR...

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    6. Several times on E-195 between Seattle and Toronto and back. 4-5 hour flight. Much better than any other type of aircraft on this route. I always try to book Air Canada and E-195.

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    7. I had an Embraer E190 if I am not mistaken on LGA-YYZ flight. Air Canada was the airliner, each seat had IFE and it was pretty comfortable, cannot complain. It was a pleasant flight...

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    8. LHR is much too expensive for Embraer. Yes you can do it but with 100% LF I doubt it you will be profitable. LHR motivate companies to use bigger planes. TLV is far away and it is regular route but in fact it is charter and for those you need big plane. Embraer is very good plane, I personally like it very much, but still it is too small for flights more than 2,5 hours.

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  9. I have a strong feeling that one of those Embraers will come from Montenegro. The financial lease of one of Montenegro's E-jets expires next year and I doubt they will keep it in their fleet because they are literally strapped for cash.

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    1. Didn't they also complain about the lease being too expensive some time ago?

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  10. Overall, OU seems to be going towards capacity downscaling. Smaller, more economical planes, as opposed to machines supporting both local and mid-range network. In the long run, it's aspirations will be limited to developing into a notable regional player, but nothing more than that.

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    1. That's true .it's all due to the Ceo they have he's so narrow minded. No future vision only his own pocket vision.

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    2. Enlighten me please, how can ADDING new planes and increasing seat offer/number in the fleet be downscaling? Plus 4 new A319, supposed to come according to the postponed order. Plus Kucko being the first OU CEO EVER talking of need/possibility of widebodies&longrange. Where do you see downscaling here? I don't. So once again, enlighten me (and all of us) , please !!!

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    3. ^ Just look at the right-sizing of seating capacity when the airline replaced a 320 with 2 Q400s... this is the explanation of downsizing - similar seating capacity but two smaller planes allowing more destinations to be served off the same weekly seat plan.

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  11. Croatia needs one charter company and one regular one. Charter can work summer in Croatia and winter in Austria. These two companies need to be decoupled. Otherwise they will stay in debt forever. They will hold with Croatia Airlines.

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  12. "Only Japanese carriers have so far ordered the jet."...
    What about Trans States Holdings, SkyWest,, Air Mandalay etc?

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    1. Just look at the orders that Embraer and Bombardier have and compare it to the poor list your provided. I do not want to start with Boing and Airbus since they are on the whole another level

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    2. I am very suspicious about the Trans State Holding and Skywest MRJ90 orders. Both of those airlines are regionals, and scope clauses in USA won't allow regionals to fly planes over 86.000 lbs MTOW. Either they will have to change to the smaller MRJ70, derate the plane (most likely impossible because it can only fly 900 nm with standard weights), or fly the planes for themselves or lease them out. Either way, this makes me think that those planes may never be delivered, because I don't think the unions will allow scope clauses to be further relaxed now that the market has changed in favor of pilots.

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    3. When I say tecnical thiss what I mean :)

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  13. Dear Aerologic, are you reading on the blog today?

    Greets fm Ticino

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  14. Rukovodstvo CTN hoce da kopira ADR posto nemogu u sopstvenoj zemlji da se izbore za dovoljno putnika.
    Jos jean dokaz da jedino ASL ima prave ljude u rukovodstvu koji znaju kako da imaju dovoljno putnika( A pogotovu jako puno stranaca) na jednom Aerodromu.
    Mislim da bi bilo jako zanimljivo da nabave MRJ90, cudime nabavka Embraer-a .
    Na kraju ce izgleda imati samo MRJ i Embraer Avione.
    INN-NS

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    1. Jedino ASL ima prave ljude u rukovodstvu koji znaju kako da koriste krntije od aviona stare 30 godina. Jedva čekam da ih EASA ukine pa će onda morati da nabave nešto novije.
      To je isto kao kada bih sad išao da taksiram po Beogradu sa Golfom dvojkom. Ja sam samouveren i znam da moj Golf može i do Švedske da ide, ali ko će da mi udje u njega, da se vozi njime? Dakle, nije pitanje bezbednosti, jesu ti avioni dobri i pouzdani još uvek, ali je pitanje imidža kompanije i načina na koji se predstavljaju putnicima.

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    2. Vidis da je klinja nacisto prolupao...ne obracaj paznju.

      Ignore INN-(S)NS

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    3. Emirates for example advertises its flights and experience with shower spas, wifi, premium class lounge etc, reality is ~30 ac dont have first class suites, let aline a lounge, spa non existant, wifi not even on half the fleet and rare on their B777 ac whilst non existant on A330 and A340 ac, the A330 cabin is from 1999 and tight, nothing really works, seats have reclining issues and sent on flights as long as almost 10 hours, but tell me more how a B733 with a new cabin is an inconvenience and a bad image to Air Serbia. Lets be realistic, its not ideal but its not the appocalyps either. Its not the best product but neither is it the worst compared to other competitors. Service is of a good standard with JU, although with room for improvement of course, but a huge leap forward from Jat in some fields.

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    4. U enterijer 737-300 apsolutno nije nista ulozeno, isti su kao dok ih je Jat koristio, rukohvati sedista oblepljeni srebrnom mehanicarskom trakom, otpadaju cim se dotaknu.

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    5. Several times I had problem with seats on LH plains (reclining issues, non working screan etc). How they repair seats?

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    6. A ne smeta vam kad letite sa OS Fokkerima koji su slicno stari kao JU 733 a da ne pricamo o Americkim Aviokompanijama.
      A da ne pricam o LH-LX-OS Airbus floti koja takodje nije sjajna ali bitno da se pljuje sve domace.
      Ako ste toliko sposobni kao sto pricate otvorite sami svoju Aviokompaniju pa da vidite kako je .
      Sto reklamirate toliko sns nije mi jasno.
      INN-NS

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    7. Majko mila, pa zar je Adrija jedina u svijetu koja leti sa 100-seaterima pa da ih Croatia kopira?

      Klinjo puko si skroz!

      IGNORE INN-SNS

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    8. Kopira ih zato sto hoce da otvaraju baze po drugim zemljama zato sto nisu sposobni da se izbore sa konkurencijom u sopstvenoj zemlji a ne po avionima.
      A ne shvatam sto je ovde vecina ljudi toliko nekulturna i mesa politiku kao da smo na nekom stranackom forumu ili nekim tabloidnim novinama.
      INN-NS

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    9. Цицко па сам си био споменуо да имаш политичких веза... ко ти је сада крив?

      Па да, баш као што и Норвиџн није успео да се избори са конкуренцијом на домаћем тржишту па је морао даље да се шири. Брука.

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    10. Uporedjujete razlicite stvari DY je LCC i nije nacionalna Aviokompanija sto CTN jeste to ni jedna jaka nacionalna aviokompanija ne radi.
      Ja imam jake Politicke veze to je istina ali sto se to mora spominjati nije mi jasno a to cicko me ne provocira u opste.
      Sto bilo lepo da svi moraju da se potpisu.
      INN-NS

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    11. INN-NS, I kind of agree that they cannot attract pax within their own country and that is probably due to massive competition anywhere you go in Croatia other than Osijek. I recommend you guys try looking at Flightradar24 during summer time and will see what I mean. I am sure Croatia airlines gets a piece of cake ( tourists) but its minimal compared to Thompson, Thomas Cook, Easy, Monarch and so on. The list could go forever.

      Lets get back to Serbia now, Serbia is population wise around the double of Croatia and has only 2 airports (not counting small airports with no flights). ASL is doing well partially due to limited competition. I am not saying ASL pushed out U2 and the rest what I am saying is this:

      Paris: ASL: 14 p/w Wizz: 3 p/w
      Amsterdam: ASL: 10-14 p/w
      London: ASL: 9 p/w Wizz: 3 p/w
      Berlin: ASL: 7p/w
      Dusseldorf: ASL 7p/w
      Brussels: ASL 7 p/w
      Copenhagen: ASL 7 p/w
      Milan: ASL: 5-7 p/w
      Stuttgart: ASL: 7 p/w
      Abu Dhabi and Rome: Same alliance with AZ and EY
      If we do not include Istanbul, Frankfurt, Moscow and Vienna, I personally consider the above mentioned routes as key destinations were ASL has zero or limited competition. Let me know what you guys think. Personally I would love to see AF, KL, and BA return since the fares might drop a bit and also for my selfish reasons since this summer season flights from Toronto are pretty expensive.

      I am not trying to start a hate show here, the only thing is that I do not see enough competition in Belgrade.

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    12. add Budapest, Stockholm ( DY is seasonal and 2 p/w), Zagreb, Thessaloniki, Tel Aviv, Sofia, Sarajevo, Skopje, Ljubljana, and Prague.

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    13. AF and BA can't compete with ASL. Maybe Transavia but not AF.

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    14. ^ for AF maybe due to double daily flights, while BA and KL would be able to.

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    15. YYZ
      Znam da je napad na HR od strane LCC ali CTN bi mogao da se izbori da hoce.
      Nijedna Aviokompanija ne zeli da ulazi u sukob i gubljenje para sa ASL , AF-KL imaju odlicne codeshare ugovore a u HR vracaju mnoge kompanije zato sto hoce da pokupe pare i nemaju nikakvu konkurenciju u vidu CTN dok je u Srb skroz drugo stanje.
      Bilo bi dobro kad bi HV leteo 4 puta u codeshare sa ASL.
      INN-NS

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    16. YYZ

      "this summer season flights from Toronto are pretty expensive"

      You probably know this but I noticed that this year YYZ-BEG is for the first time more expensive than ZAG and even SJJ in some cases. This used to never be the case. There was always good seat sales for BEG especially with AF/KLM. To me is a clear sign of some tectonic change in this market.

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    17. Kad se iz YYZ putuje skuplje je za BEG nego iz BEG za YYZ .
      Od sledece godine cete imati najjeftinije letove do kuce :)
      INN-NS

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    18. Ironically, the fuel has never been cheaper. Same to Asia.

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    19. "Ja imam jake Politicke veze to je istina ali sto se to mora spominjati nije mi jasno INN-SNS" uahahahahahah cicko ti si stvarno cudo od deteta!

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    20. SM,
      Yes I did notice that and to be honest I was a bit stunned especially for Sarajevo since they always had the most expansive tickets. As for Zagreb this might be the result of SkyGreece, not sure really. Last year I used KLM to get back home and the reason being an excellent promotion as you said. This year I still did not buy the ticket ( big mistake since I found a promotion with Swiss couple of months ago for around 900 Canadian (670 euros)). Now the cheapest option is LOT Polish with a connection of only 1 hour on the way back. I am not sure will that be enough really.

      INN-NS,
      Hopefully those flights will start next year! As of now lets just wait and see.

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    21. Cicko nas je lood.

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    22. YYZ

      I have a feeling that it has a lot to do with LX's expansion to Balkans. That, SkyGreece, additional flights to ZAG from AMS etc. The other reason might be that JU is charging little more for their portion of LHR/AMS/CDG codeshares, who knows.
      Lot via WAW seems to be very good option. New plane, short connection, reasonable departure time on your way back. I’m not sure about the price currently but last year they were among the cheapest.

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    23. YYZ-ZAG seems to be cheap because Jet Airways and Croatia have a codeshare or something, and I think this is bringing the price down.

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    24. Od danas ignorisem sve Anonymous-e koji pisu gluposti.
      YYZ
      Krece Jedan grad u USA i jedan u CAN za pocetak, a 15-16 pilota ide na simulator i ETOPS za A330.
      INN-NS

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    25. INN ni jedna druga kompanija u Europi nema baze izvan svoje matične baze osim Adrije?

      Nije li Adrija možda kopirala flyBe koji to radi već godinama i ima hub u MAN i 9 baza. Da ne spominjemo Air Berlin koji ima dva huba i 4 baze. A što je sa Aegeanom koji uz 2 huba i 3 baze ima i hub u Larnaci. Itd, itd...

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    26. BE je LCC
      AB nema direktno bazu u ZRH nego 4T plus ne znaju ni sami dali su full service airline ili LCC zato ne prave profit
      A3 je izuzetak i ne moj te njih da uporedjujete sa CTN 4 puta su veci.
      INN-NS

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    27. "Od danas ignorisem sve Anonymous-e koji pisu gluposti."

      Nice resolution INN :D

      Opasan macak.

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    28. Cicko, po čemu se flyBe ili Air Berlin kao polu LCC kompanija razlikuju od Adrije koja je to isto postala prije dvije godine. Identičan model LCC usluga uz hub i konekcije.

      I nisam mislio na Zurich kao bazu Air Berlina već na Palma de Malorcu. Iako Zurich i je njihova nenjemačka baza obzirom da je Belair njihov 100% subsidiaries i feeda njihove linije i konekcije. Razlika je samo u natpisu na avionu. Ista je priča i sa Bečom i Nikijem. To je jednako kao da kažeš da Dolomiti nisu dio Lufthanse.

      I sad mi još pojasni, majke ti, kakve veza veličina ima sa time da li je netko nekoga kopirao ili ne.

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  15. There is more to this story than what has been revealed so far, but isn't that mostly the case from the ex-YU...

    The choice of operation lease (and not purchase lease, like the Q400s are thankfully on) demonstrates this a short-term decision (and purchases of E2/C-series- surprised the MRJ was mentioned- of other latest-generation planes is on the cards, or of incompetence/financial concerns.

    OU is looking too narrow focus in only acquiring 2 jets for 2016 - 3 would be far more logical, but the chance to up the fleet to 6 is a good decision. Trading 'up' the Q400s (of which two could be owned outright next year) is a poor decision as those planes have lots of hours left on them, and have a break-even load better than the AT4s they replaced!!

    6 Qs, 6 jungle jets and the assorted ageing Airbuses is the likely scenario by end of 2017, what a shame they can't get their house in order to replace the 319s - and start sending them to money-making destinations like DXB.

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    1. Personally I don't see why they would have both the E-190 and the Q400 in the fleet.
      Though I think the E-jet would probably suit them better as they would most likely outperform the Q400 on some longer routes (CPH, AMS, BRU).

      One thing that's certain is that the E-190 would be a much better fit for flights from Zagreb to the coast than the A319/320.

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    2. The recent results from OU as reported on this blog does indicates that they are already starting to lose out on the transit market to Australasia. We see this with the drop in pax to Germany. OU needs to figure out if it is wise for them to continue to ignore the increasing trend of Australians and New Zealanders using the Middle East as their gateways to Europe.

      If it now too late for them to establish a service to Dubai, I don't know but it would definitely assist in solving there fleet shortage problem of the winter months.

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    3. I think the Dubai ship has sailed away the moment FZ started flying to Zagreb.
      The market from Zagreb to Asia and Oceania is becoming increasingly competitive with Turkish, flydubai and Qatar all having direct flights to Zagreb.

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    4. For now it would be very difficult and OU probably does think so too. Remember that they just started code sharing with Singapore Airlines which could be one of the ways OU might be trying to counter this by offering more options via Europe. This again would be an encouraging sign form OU that they are ready to a least put up some type of fight.

      Another thing they could consider which is something we touched on a few days back would be going both Dubrovnik and Split to Dubai. Maybe 3 days out of split and 4 days out of Dubrovnik per week and try to code share with QF via Dubai.

      This of course would be a seasonal service. Only problem here is fleet shortage of course.

      BTW, long time no read FrequentFlyer. Good to see you back!

      Delete
    5. Maybe the cheapest and easiest solution would be to return to Istanbul and to cover Asia via Turkish Airlines.

      Delete
    6. I think Turkish Airlines would need to invest heavily in overhauling their product and invest heavily to sell it as an alternative because compared to the ME3, it is virtually unknown in Australasia. They did consider Australia flights a few years back which has since been put on hold.

      Singapore Airlines on the other hand is a popular airline for Australians which is why it could be a good move by OU in having code share with the airline.

      Also, Qantas is starting to after many years position it self as an airline which Australians would be happy to make their first choice. I see this especially with business people shifting back to Qantas and speaking highly of the product they are now offering. This is why I suggested that if OU ever consider Dubai then they should look to code share with QF to Australia and NZ.

      I can see how you can probably only make a geographical argument for Istanbul.

      Delete
    7. @ Q400

      Hvala Q400! Taking a break from some of the absurd antics on this forum has been good - but the interest in aviation in our region remains. And it's obvious i'm not the only one...

      The possible QF-EK connection at DXB seems so incredibly logical, but also potentially with SQ - it seems so obvious, but can't be done without extra 319 capacity at OU. The plane would be away from the ZAG base for ~13hrs, a lot given the current short/mid-haul ops. BA's success in ZAG is in part due to the QF codeshare, but adds 5-6hrs of extra flying time for the Oz/NZ pax...

      Maybe Purger or someone else has some stats or details on DXB passenger numbers?


      @ Nemjee

      Interesting idea, but you are thinking of LF (load factor), not BELF (break-even load factor). This is really the key in today's airline economics. I won't bore you with details, but any flight less than 75mins is far more economical on a prop than similar-sized jet.

      You are spot on re longer routes (2hrs+) - OU has been forced to 'misuse' the Q fleet as the fleet gap between a 76-seater and a 144-seater is enormous... It is on these kind of routes where replacing the Q with the E190 frees up the Q... to do what it does best!

      Delete
    8. Q400,

      I agree but that's why I wrote Asia. I think a good first step would be for OU to capture some of the Zagreb-Asia market before thinking of the Australian one. To Asia, they can offer two stop flights while to Australia (via SQ) they would have to include another airport making this itinerary less competitive when compared to the Persian Gulf ones.

      Then again, Singapore flies to Istanbul, they can offer flights to Australia through there via the code-share agreement. Another way to reinforce this partnership would be to have a codeshare with TK to SIN which would further improve connectivity with SQ to Australia.

      I just think IST could be the best fit because it's a massive Star hub and because the ZAG-IST sector is short.

      Delete
    9. Frequenflyer,

      Of course, I agree with you especially since I've seen how wonderful the Atr has been for JU on regional routes. Even back in the day when Jat was around, they would carry far less passengers to Montenegro than YM did but they would make twice as much money.
      In my opinion, the problem is that OU needs the Embraer jet for those thinner, longer routes but at the same time they should avoid a third model in their fleet.

      I think that in the end they will have to make the E-jet work, they have no other choice. Some friends of mine flew with the Q400 to BRU and they said that it was really an unpleasant experience. I think BRU and CPH would be the first candidates for the jungle jet.

      Delete
  16. It is very difficult for someone to sit on the fence and have an opinion on what fleet would best suit OU or any other airline because the variables which differ from airline to airline and what an airline would be offered is something we can only speculate on.

    For me what is encouraging from this article is the idea of what seems to be a leasing trial period of 2 years for the 100 seat type after which OU will have some sound data to compare when considering an aircraft type to enter the fleet.

    Also, the idea of a Sarajevo base at this time. Even though I too would have like to have seen something like this sooner, the reality is that both OU and Sarajevo up until now was not ready for this but now at least Sarajevo is and if anything OU should be soon.

    The stars might be slowly coming into alignment for OU. Maybe establishment of Air Serbia lit the fires under OU managements bums and started them to get things rolling or it could have just been a coincidence and that fact that OU has almost finished restructuring and changes like this are possible now.
    It could even be the new management of Zagreb airport forcing OU to make passenger growing changes otherwise they would be forced to look for alternatives.

    Whatever the reason, it is good to see the region starting to focus on creating growth like they should be.

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    Replies
    1. ^ Yes completely agree that the stars may be coming into alignment at OU. They have for the first time in years been forced to fight - and haven't done badly given the corruption and lack of vision from the CEO. I also wonder how much hiding behind the *A cloak has to do with it.

      Long-term, the airline needs to be looking at what it can do to 1) claw back summer market share to the coast, and 2) solve the drastic winter shifts in pax numbers

      Delete
  17. If this kind of multi-hub-point-to-point-national-carrier strategy had given good results they wouldn't be selling Adria now? Route all flights through ZAG and be a proper hub carrier. Multi hub flying is more expencive than having one hub and can be achived with profit only by very big players like Delta, American, Lufthansa, Easy, Ryanair.. Do Emirates, Etihad or Turkish have multiple hubs? No.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Kucko is very bad manager. I don't understand why CTN is not having charter flights, why they don't lease CRJ's, for what reason he wants Mitsubishi aircraft which is not jet produced, or Brasilian Embraer? One more Airbus wouldn't be bad... Embraer is the worst scenario...

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    Replies
    1. ^ Yet the airline has always struggled to know how many Airbus 320 family to operate, and what type. Another 319 seems more logical.

      They (perhaps stupidly) allowed the ageing 320 -CTF to be liquidated, rather than a balloon payout and operating it as a summer-only charter plane. That would have made a huge difference to the summer fleet reliability, and allowed more charters/holiday flights to the coast

      Delete

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