Friday, November 20, 2015

EX-YU flag carriers handle over 5 million passengers

EX-YU national airlines post strong Q1 - Q3 results

The national carriers of the former Yugoslavia handled over five million passengers during the first three quarters of the year, with all four recording passenger growth over the January - September period when compared to 2014. Air Serbia remains the busiest, while Adria Airways also saw double digit growth. The Serbian national carrier handled 2.03 travellers during the first nine months, an increase of 15% compared to the same period last year. The airline's busiest route was Paris with 126.243 travellers (up 4.6%), followed by Zurich, Podgorica, Moscow and Tivat. Of those, all saw passenger growth with exception to Tivat, where figures were slightly down. Nevertheless, Air Serbia handled its second-millionth passenger early in September this year, while the milestone was reached on October 31 in 2014.

Croatia Airlines welcomed 1.456.997 travellers on board its aircraft during the nine-month period, an increase of 1.1% on 2014. Of those, 369.066 travelled on domestic flights, representing a decrease of 1.9%, while 1.035.741 passengers boarded scheduled international services, up 2.6% on 2014. The remaining 61.190 passengers flew on charter flights, an increase of 5.8%. Charters accounted for just 4% of all operations. The average cabin load factor stood at 70.2%, up 0.6% on the same period last year. The airline upped its capacity by 2.3%. Croatia Airlines handled its millionth passenger of the year on July 27, one day ahead of 2014. The carrier anticipates its end-of-year passenger growth will amount to 3%.

Adria Airways recorded double digit passenger growth during the first ten months of the year by handling 1.090.034 passengers, an increase of 13.4% compared to the same period last year. Of those, 904.731 travellers were carried on scheduled services, up 15.1%, while the remaining 185.303 were carried on charter flights, representing an increase of 5.7%. The growth was fuelled by the launch of new routes from Ljubljana and the development of the carrier's bases outside of Slovenia. The airline's average cabin load factor stood at 69%, which is down 2% on the same period in 2014. Adria says the decline comes due to the utilisation of larger aircraft. The Slovenian carrier is satisfied with its performance on all of its routes with exception to Moscow, where it saw a sharp decline in passenger figures as a result of a volatile rouble and western-imposed sanctions on the country.

Montenegro Airlines registered 461.000 passengers over the first nine months, an increase of 3.6% on 2014. The greatest passenger growth was seen on flights between Podgorica and Ljubljana, up 49%, followed by the Danish (+46%), German (+45%) and UK markets (+25%). Passenger numbers on scheduled services were up 3%, while charter flights saw a 17% boost, primarily due to a series of leisure flights from Germany, namely Leipzig, Stuttgart, Dusseldorf and Hanover, which ran throughout the summer until earlier this month.

AirlinePAX (millions)Change (%)
Air Serbia2.03 15.0
Croatia Airlines1.45 1.1
Adria Airways1.09 13.4
Montenegro Airlines0.46 3.6

74 comments:

  1. Good results all round. Will Adria count Tallinn passengers in its overall results in the fourth quarter?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's a good question. It's not actually them operating the flights. It's Nordic aviation using Adria AOC and crew and they are selling tickets through JP website. Wonder how they will treat these passengers.

      Delete
    2. I think, they will count them in.

      Delete
    3. Since Adria will be getting paid for flying these passengers I think they should count them.
      They are going to have revenues and expenses from this operation so they must report everything related.

      Delete
  2. When you think about it, the number is only a fraction higher than JAT's record year in 1987 which is quite sad. And back then you also had Adria in the mix which probably results in the same numbers you have today for four separate airlines. The true picture of 'progress' in ex-Yu 27 years on.

    ReplyDelete
  3. What about BH Airlines? :D

    sorry had to

    ReplyDelete
  4. 70% LF seems to be a pattern for ex-yu airlines.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would be very interesting if we knew what is the LF for W6, U2, FR, LH, OS etc. for flights to and from the Ex-Yu in order to make proper comparisons.

      Delete
    2. Comparing the LF of lowcosters to that of legacy carriers in the exYU region would not be very much proper.

      Even less proper would be comparing the LF of giants such as LH/FR/TK who collect all long haul and nearly all medium haul traffic from the region to that of small regional airlines who struggle to make sustainable euromed networks.

      What matters for exYU carriers is whether they have a clear trend of increase in their LF as well as the number of pax and, consequently, yield. It does not matter how do they compare to LCCs or the world's largest airline conglomerates.

      Delete
    3. OS ima bolji LF od ASL od 80-90 %
      INN-NS

      Delete
    4. Actually LX it does matter greatly.
      You see the ex-yu carriers do not operate in a vacuum, competing only with each other about who will make its respective cheerleaders happier.
      They are competing with those LCC's, with LH, OS, TK, AZ.

      Delete
    5. They can never, ever match the LF of the largest players, let alone LCCs. Therefore I see no point in comparing these. What would be the point? That every year we say: 'You guys have considerably lower LF compared to Lufthansa and you are light years away from Ryanair, therefore you suck, your management sucks, and you are all burden on your taxpayers - shame on you for not being Lufthansa!'

      I really don't see the point.

      Delete
  5. Montenegro Airline still seems to be ahead of Air Serbia on Montenegro-Serbia flights.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Interesting ratio seems to appear, when one looks at the numbers:

    2 : 1,5 : 1 : 0,5
    JU : OU : JP : YM

    Which means Air Serbia alone holds about 40% of the market. I believe that there is a good chance of increasing this to half of the market, within the next 3 years.

    ReplyDelete
  7. What the f*ck is this about???http://www.kurir.rs/vesti/drustvo/blud-i-razvrat-u-er-srbiji-seks-droga-i-orgijanje-u-srpskoj-avio-kompaniji-clanak-2026111

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. it's Kurir, same as other sh*t we have here, so who cares

      Delete
    2. Sensationalism - the favourite drug of the uneducated masses.

      Delete
    3. Admine, ako vec cistite postove onda mozete i ovaj glupavi link..

      Delete
    4. Cocaine - the favorite drug of Yuppies.

      Delete
  8. The way I look at this is as follows:

    (1)
    YM with a fleet size consisting of RJs only and a quarter of the size of that of JU carried a quarter of the number of passengers. Hmm... interesting.

    (2)
    OU's fleet is half narrow-body, half RJ (whereas JU fleet is 60% narrow-body), 60% of the size of JU fleet yet carries ~75% of the number of passengers. Again, interesting.

    (3)
    JP has very similar figures to JU. Fleet size is ~50% of JU, and passenger number are ~50% of JU. Yet, their fleet consist of 2/3 RJs.

    Something does not look quite right about JU passenger load factor. Unless the utilisation of their respective fleets is very different, it looks like JU is not reaping the benefits its narrow-body fleet.

    #JustAnObservation

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Very astute observation.
      They probably explain why ASL refuses to publish RASM and load factor numbers.

      Delete
    2. JU for sure doesn't have worse load factor than JP and OU, just they need even much better load factor given that they have much more transfer passengers.

      Delete
    3. Neverovatno i neviđeno ste dosadni sa tim loadfactorom. Nikada nisam video da neko toliko smara sa nečim. Zatekli su LF od 64% u mrtvom Jatu i vi sad ovde svaki dan tupite o niskom LF. Šta ste očekivali, da ga za dve godine podignu za 20%? Siguran sam da bi ste vi stručnjaci to uradili u bilo koju avio kompaniju da vas posade? Samo pucnete prstima i eto velikog loadfactora. Mađioničari.

      Jesu li ga podigli za 3% u prvoj godini? Jesu. Hoće li ga ponovo podići za par procenata u ovoj godini? Hoće. Vremenom će dogurati do 80%, prestanite više da smarate sa tim ako boga znate. Ne može se rečima opisati koliko zračite sa tim zahtevima da se od Jata napravi Aegean u roku od par godina pa ako ide malo sporije od toga onda je sve neka zavera i nestručnost koju biste vi iskorenili samo kada bi vas neko postavio za direktore tamo.

      Delete
    4. Unless JU flies a lot less per plane (low fleet utilization) compared with the others then #Observer is correct.
      Their LF would be lower.
      Could also be partly explained if JU's flights are much longer in average so it's fleet flies less flights during a 24 hour day compared with the other three.

      Delete
    5. Eazyjet has a loadfactor above 91%!!!

      Delete
    6. And here comes another airline CEO...

      Delete
    7. @11:05 Heheh... Kao LC da imaju koji procenat manje mogli bi da stave kljuc u bravu ;)

      Delete
    8. @11:03 Calm down. maybe if you can't handle commenting on airlines you shouldn't be in an airline related blog!

      Delete
    9. JU have much more routes which are longer .

      Delete
    10. Wow, @Anonymous 10:54 AM, I clearly hit a raw nerve there. Your statement strikes me as somewhat immature. What is the point of an aviation site if we cannot make simple non-emotional observations like the one I did? And, no, I don't have any expectations whatsoever wrt JU passenger load factor. I simply observed that with a fleet offering more seats than the other 3 operators, JU's passenger numbers seem low. Needless to say, there are 1001 other factors that come into play, such as the number of operated flights and the duration of these flights as far as the passenger numbers are concerned, but that's the reason I raised the issue in the first place. The point is to have a rational discussion, not to attack one another simply for making an observation. Feel free to respond with an average daily number of flights or flight duration to see if we can add any more light to this topic, if you have such information.

      Now, theoretically, one airline could handle half the passengers of another and, nonetheless, have higher revenue and/or profit. Clearly, we're not in a position to make any such observation, hence I did not. However, simply looking at passenger numbers and fleet (available number of seats), it seems like JU is not making the most of its narrow-body fleet (perhaps partially explained by the fact that narrow-body aircraft normally operate longer routes, but the difference is passenger numbers is to great for this to be the only explanation).

      Hope this does not overly upset you.

      #JustAnObservation

      Delete
    11. Ok we all know that Air Serbia doesn't use all 20 planes have in fleet and that part of ATR fleet and most of 737-300 are "spare" planes to jump in in case of problems with other old and unreirable planes.

      That is good for performance, but in same time is disaster for expenses, cutting profit.

      Delete
    12. Au da li je realno kolike gruposti bulaznite??? Koji crni Easyjet? Jel oni lete sve svoje linije za/iz Srbije mozda?
      Poseticu vas da je LF kod ASL u intezivnom rastu, takodje treba znati da je bilo otvaranja novih linija, koje je trebalo puniti od samog pocetka.
      Ovde se kace neki ljudi koji pojma nemaju kako vazduhoplovstvo fungcionise

      Delete
    13. #JustAnObservation,

      The only immature thing in this thread is the constant emphasis on ASL's loadfactor and the constant search for any trace of their LF being disastrously low.

      Once again: they started at 64%. Then they increased it to 67% in one year even though they had a huge increase in capacity. They will increase it in 2015 again. Year by year, they will reach 80%. Of course it is still low - what else did you expect after a 64% starting point?

      Whoever wants ASL's LF to grow double-digit every year is free to visit the Etihad HQ in Abu Dhabi and present them with the plan - I am sure they will get Kondic's job immediately.

      Delete
    14. Νο Anon 1:42
      What is annoying here is all the immature Air Serbia fan-boys who absolutely can not stand anything that does not praise their favorite airline.
      And instead highlights some of it's shortcomings and even dares criticize the decisions of its management.
      That really sends you to the crazy house!

      Delete
    15. #Observer November 20, 2015 at 12:18 PM
      +1000

      Delete
    16. #Observer
      Do sada ste niste nikad potpisali pa sad pokusavate dobiti paznju ako pljujete ASL da bi vas simpatisali.
      LF je od 70-80% zavisi od linije tako da ne znam sto se brinete ;)
      INN-NS

      Delete
    17. No Anon 2:11,

      It has nothing to do with praise of the airline but with some kind of bizarre obsession with its LF. And so we have to listen to the same kind of 'low LF, low LF, low LF' verses day and night. We know very well the LF is low. But we also know it's on the increase and it gets better year by year. Criticizing an airline for its LF even when it clearly does a good job on increasing it from a horrible starting point is not criticism but obsessive hatred.

      And the management? Well you can and should of course criticize some (or even all) decisions they make. But let me tell you something: there is a difference between criticism that is backed with some sort of knowledge (e.g. Purger or Nemjee) and 'criticism' that is based on nothing more than: 'This guy is a moron, he could learn something from Aegean'.

      What you and your hateboys don't understand is that you are just a mirror image of ASL fanboys. Equally arrogant, equally no clue what you are talking about.

      Delete
    18. Дечко ТзарNovember 20, 2015 at 4:10 PM

      @Obserever

      "JU fleet is 60% narrow-body"

      Doesn't seem right. Can you please explain how did you come up with that number?

      Delete
    19. @Anonymous 2:56 PM, well, this is what aviation enthusiasm is all about, discussing details and hard figures, not some non-sense 'vision' that usually management is trying to sell to their employees and fanbase. I have never raised the topic of JU passenger load factor before and it seemed to me very relevant to today's post about passenger numbers. Clearly your definition of "bizarre obsession" is significantly looser than mine. And, please note, I did not criticise JU as such, I simply made an observation from the figures in today's post.

      In any case, you or someone else, provided a reasonable explanation as to why JU's PLF is low. In a rather dramatic and emotional way the person in question described that the PLF was even lower just prior to the launch of the Air Serbia brand and that PLF has improved despite the increase in fleet size. That's a step in the right direction. No harm intended (or caused), I hope. However, the reaction of some of the readers needs to be toned down a little.

      @Дечко Тзар
      JU's fleet consists of 20 aircraft of which 8 are A319, 2 are A320 and 4 are B737-300. That's 14/20 or 70% (the other 6 being ATR 72s). There was a typo on my original post. So, JU's fleet consists of 70% narrow-body, not 60%. The 2m passengers include flights operated under the Aviolet brand too. Not sure if this answers your question.

      #JustAnObservation

      Delete
    20. High LF + high prices = perfect
      High LF + low prices = not so good
      Low LF + high prices = not so good

      Low LF + huge dumping = catastrofic yield.

      This is why LF is important.

      Delete
    21. #Observer, thanks for your post, hope you'll continue writing on this blog!

      Delete
    22. ASL has 6 ATRs only on paper. Observing their operational status will reveal 3-5 are in use on sustainable basis most of the time. Boeings are used in place of many ATR routes, driving LF down. Boeing and older ATRs are on a way out and ASL already mentioned upcoming ATR fleet replacement/refresh. This will allow ASL to better match demand and as result improve LF. Underperforming routes like BUD have been cut and frequency was adjusted on others. With LF on track to keep growing in the 70s ASL should be fine when it comes to LF.

      Delete
    23. @Observer

      "JP has very similar figures to JU. Fleet size is ~50% of JU, and passenger number are ~50% of JU. Yet, their fleet consist of 2/3 RJs."

      I'm not sure if I understood you correctly, but what figures?

      "an increase of 15% compared to the same period last year"

      Guys, maybe I'm wrong but I think this indicates that ASL's LF is improving.

      Delete
    24. 1) the entire (100%) of the JU fleet is narrowbody. ATR the last timw I checked was not a widebody.

      2) CLF has drastically increased in JU and is im the mid 70%. Having said that, as has Kondic, there is alot of room for improvement. Not all routes are filling well bringing down the CLF, but neither do all connections in the network match and it could take another round of expansion to boost that. We have mentioned on this blog that the midnight wave needs to increase to enable more pax to fill morning departures from BEG.

      Delete
  9. OT: LOT special offers from Zagreb, really low prices

    http://www.lot.com/hr/en/discover-new-connections?zanpid=2102735759726715904

    ReplyDelete
  10. Ne treba zanemariti ni činjenicu da u Hrvatskoj uz CTN leti još 4 hrvatskih tvrtki:

    - ECA sa velikim brojem linija i oko 200.000 putnika
    - Trade Air sa 3 linije i velikim brojem ad hoc chartera
    - Limitless sa velikim brojem chartera, a kreću i sa redovnim linijama
    - Sea Air sa linijama iz Osijeka, Mostara, Prištine i Sarajeva, te charterima
    - kratko vrijeme letio je i Air Croatia te prevezo nešto putnika

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I svi zajedno nemaju putnika koliko ASL na kraju.
      INN-NS

      Delete
    2. Istina, ali uključujući i njih razlika nije ni izbliza toliko velika. Svi hrvatski prijevoznici zajedno = 1,8 milijuna

      Delete
    3. to all above,

      and what did you discover in the end? regardless od who has more passengers, not a single one is profitable. is this kindergarten or an aviation blog?

      Delete
  11. Tema je najveci porast i apsolutno i u procentima putnika kod ASL i ocajni kod Kucka, moze exYu da brise kolilo mu volja, ali je Kucko zreo za harakiri.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Samo je pitanje koje će kompanije preživeti naredne godine. Montenegro je u dugovima, piloti su im otišli. Adria se raspada a piloti takođe štrajkuju. Croatia je takođe u dubiozi i ako ih ne prodaju biće frke. Er Srbija još ne prikazuje sve troškove već ono što im odgovara. Rade sve bolje ali imaju i monopol i prenaduvane cene karata. Možda i Er Srbija nekoga preuzme a možda i ostate status kvo. Ali vidi se da BG aerodrom nema više veliki rast putnika. Tako da ako ode i konkurencija to neće biti dobro za Er Srbiju jer ako povećaju cene putnici će ići na alternativne aerodrome koji i nisu baš toliko udaljeni. Videćemo šta će biti u narednih godinu dana

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sta lupas, samo su Temisvar i Tuzla relativno blizu i nemaju neki izbor.

      Delete
    2. ASL ima prenaduvane cene?! U odnosu na koga majke ti?

      Delete
    3. U odnosu na Ryanair verovatno :D

      Delete
    4. ASL u odnosu na sve. U ovom trenutku je mit da JU dampuje. Evo recimo BEG-WAW sa JU je najmanje 250 evra, dok LH ide čak i ispod 200€.

      JU ima "pristojno" visoke cene već mesecima.

      Delete
    5. @pera

      connections will always (or almost always) br cheaper than direct. Just as JU has competitive fares from the region via BEG. Nobody talks how German tax payers pay for Balkan transit because LH is the cheapest

      Delete
  13. Najvaznije je da je ASL prva i da ima najvecu mrezu linija u EX YU zbog buducih USA .
    Nadam se da ce sledece godine broj putnika biti blizu 3 Mil.
    INN-NS

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Zbog čega je to najvažnije?

      Delete
    2. Njemu je najvaznije. Zaboravio je napisati MENI JE NAJVAZNIJE. Drugima je svejedno. :)

      Delete
    3. Lave, W6 u Q1-Q3 18M putnika.....

      Delete
  14. Zagreb-Beograd-Zagreb
    utorak 24.11. tamo
    srijeda 25.11. povratak
    karta se pokušala kupiti 7 dana prije

    =195 EUR povratna karta

    Opako puno, puno, puno previše.

    Očito smanjenjem frekvencija i kapaciteta za 13% + ogromnom reklamom (konstatno je na televiziji Air Serbia reklama) se ide novom logikom. Ali sa 195 EUR za let od manje od sat vremena koji konkurira trosatnoj vožnji automobilom nema šanse da pune avion.

    Nas smo trebali ići dvojica, sada idemo automobilom. Jer za 400 EUR možemo dva puta do BEG i nazad i još imamo automobil na raspolaganju i ne ovisimo o lokalnim partnerima.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Prvo vam smeta niska cena propadaju kad je povisena kukate odlucite se .
      INN-NS

      Delete
    2. Znači, nema više dampinga? ;)

      Delete
    3. Niti ce na zelenu granu sa ekstremno niskom cijenom od 70 EUR, ali bogami nece niti sa previsokom od 195 EUR za 11 mjesec. Za manjenobce zrenutno letis do Londona.

      Realna cijena bi bila 110-130 EUR. Zimi i nize 90-110.

      Delete
    4. Ako je cena 195€, to samo znači da su prodali sve niže fare buckets. Što znači da je LF dobar na tom konkretnom letu. Imajući u vidu da sam ja za let VIE-FRA platio 460€ (dobro, firma je platila, ne ja lično) pre par meseci, ovo je sasvim u redu.

      Delete
    5. G Purger
      Jednostavno vam nije jedno ni drugo ne odgovara iz drugog razloga ali necemo sad o tome .
      Nego sto jos niste odgovorili Mag Aerologic na juceresnje pitanje ? :)
      INN-NS

      Delete
    6. Sine ja shvacam da ti tesko razumijes srpski, a jos teze hrvatski ali pokusaj shvatiti razliku izmedju 70 i 195 eura.

      Ja na pitanja odgovaram. Na konstatacije, provokacije i politikanstvo ne reagiram

      Delete
    7. Razumem ja odlicno srpski ne znam sto me vredjate mozda zato sto vam je krivo sto je let odlicno popunjen.
      Nigde vas covek nije provocirao ili bilo gde spominjao politiku nego je slicno kao i vi nekad postavio pitanje .
      INN-NS

      Delete
    8. supply and demand. AUH this summer was 1200€ one way because the flight was overbooked. the flight must be almost sold out since it is at that price.

      Delete
  15. Purger,

    Ako im je cjena konstantno tolika meni to vise govori da im prodaja ide dobro. AKo mogu toliko traziti za let u novembru onda…

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Po toj logici CA puni avione 100%.

      Delete
    2. @SMNovember 20, 2015 at 8:22 PM

      Ne , gube novce !!!

      Delete

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