Monday, November 16, 2015

Strong demand for Belgrade - US flights

Belgrade - New York busiest US O&D market

Air Serbia will begin five weekly flights from Belgrade to New York's JFK Airport next June with Sabre's demand data estimating that 143.000 O&D (origin and destination) passengers flew between Serbia and the United States last year, or some 392 per day. According to the "Routes News" development magazine, this is a growing market with traffic increasing by an average annual rate of 5.7% between 2005 and 2014, with growth of 23.3% last year alone. New York accounted for the largest number of passengers flying between Serbia and the United States last year. Combined, JFK Airport and Newark Airport accounted for 36.175 passengers between these two markets in 2014 (26.234 from/to JFK and 9.941 from/to Newark). The Big Apple is followed by Chicago O'Hare, Los Angeles and Washington.

Largest US O&D markets to/from Serbia
CityPAXChange vs 2013 (%)Change vs 2005 (%)
New York (JFK+EWR)36.175 21.6 65.2
Chicago (ORD)24.589 12.0 38.0
Los Angeles (LAX)10.896 37.4 31.5
Washington (IAD)9.315 23.3 59.2

The Serbian carrier hopes to draw passengers to Belgrade from the entire US. In order to do so, it will need a strong US partner which will carry passengers from points in the country to New York and viceversa. Etihad Airways' biggest partner in the States is American Airlines, with which it codeshares on a wide range of routes. From New York, Air Serbia's part-owner has its flight numbers and designator code on twenty of American Airlines' domestic routes, including Austin, Baltimore, Boston, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dallas, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Nashville, Norfolk (Virginia), Orlando, Pittsburgh, Raleigh, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle and Washington. Furthermore, it codeshares with jetBlue from New York on 35 domestic destinations. Air Serbia will also look to stimulate the Balkan market in attracting passengers to its transatlantic service. The airline has said that flights will be timed so as to offer connections for passengers heading to and from the Balkans and Southeastern Europe, but has particularly emphasised connections for travellers from Athens, Istanbul and Tirana.

Air Serbia is still awaiting regulatory approval for its first long haul venture. Furthermore, Belgrade Airport still poses an issue for the new service. Last week, the Serbian Prime Minister, Aleksandar Vučić, said, "Right now the biggest problem is what the US call TSA (Transportation Security Administration, in charge of safety of all US flights), There are some things that need to be done at Belgrade Airport. This is something which requires major investment in the airport itself. Air Serbia is more or less ready for these flights but the airport is still not ready. This is something that we need to do. Currently, if I may say so, the brunt of the job lies on Air Serbia's shoulders, but we haven't completed our part of the job in terms of readiness of the airport to operate such flights". However, Mr Vučić noted that these issues will be resolved in time for flights to begin from June next year.

80 comments:

  1. What are the misterious things that need to be done?

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    1. Anonim 9:06AM. What mysterious things...?
      Far as my concern is, to get ticket BEG✈JFK✈BEG! And let fly. So simple. Watt to say. Government authority, Belgrade airport, Air Serbia, clearing up any task before first departures. No worries! Buy ticket and welcome aboard folks. Ovde na blogu nemoze se leteti vazduhom. Buy ticket, and all problems is over. Yours, Rodney & Globtrothers. BEG✈JFK✈BEG Kraljevo✈Sydney ✈R✈.

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    2. I'm not sure that ASL is really interested in selling tickets. We contacted them regarding this very issue (Meidterra DMC is the largest luxury tour operator to the Balkans from North America). We could provide them probably with at least 500 RT's in C class. Any business oriented enterprise would jump at this offer but not ASL.They didn't bother even to reply.

      SA
      Mediterra Operations

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  2. I would really appreciate it if ASL would codeshare to a Northern California airport. Preferably SMF, but OAK or SFO will be ok too.

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    1. Etihad codeshares with Jet Blue from New York to Sacramento so it's possible JU will too.

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    2. Yup. That is why I am really hoping for a JetBlue codeshare. Also they are a very well liked airline and I wouldn't mind flying them.

      But I will still be content with riding American out of SFO because that is a big upgrade from catching United out of SFO.

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    3. JetBlue is a great airline.
      Much, much better than AA, DL, UA in terms of how they treat their customers.

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    4. We live in a very strange world when Alaska, Southwest, Jetblue, and Virgin America are much better liked and have a more loyal following than USB3.

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  3. Always imagined Chicago was the number one route. Interesting to see NYC is ahead and surprised about LAX as well.

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  4. And the fact remains that this is a well covered market so JU will have a hard time winning each and every passenger. What interests me the most is how they plan on gaining the passenger's trust so that he pays more to fly with them even if they might not be the cheapest out there. With a single A330 in the fleet there are going to be problems when it goes tech ad it will because this happens to everyone.

    Maybe someone should inform Dane and co. that you can't just replace it with Aviolet as they do on European flights.

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    1. In case their are aircraft issues I assume they wiil transfer passengers onto Air Berlin flights.

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    2. IF AB flight has enough spare seats.
      If not they will have to wain longer for later flights.
      And/or they will have to be re-protected on other non-alliance carriers buying expensive tickets. All this is not good for JU's bottom line.

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    3. Ajde idi negde plesi nemoj da siris svoje neznanje avio saobracaja. Avio karte za aviokompanije u ovakvim slucajevima imaju nizu cenu. Dolazice neko nekad i na let ASL ko mora da bude poslat drugom rutom.

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    4. Last minute inventory is never cheap. Not even for alliance airlines, imagine with non alliance carriers.

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    5. Da bas ce ti kupiti kartu od 5000 jura za zamenski let.

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    6. This will be direct line between this two cities .ASL is already in big advantage because of that.

      You can also have question why someone fly with ASL on Belgrade Paris route even you can have cheepies flight with some other airlines.

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    7. On a two hour journey adding a connection that doubles your travel time is something significant.
      Generally few people do it to save 20-40 Euros.
      For a transatlantic flight adding a two hour stopover on a ten hour trip is less of a hassle.
      Especially if that stop saves you 100 Euros/Dollars.

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  5. I was surprised to see so much demand to JKF!? I really thought ORD and YYZ would be ahead of JFK....anyways, good news for ASL!

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    Replies
    1. YYZ BEG has more O&D than BEG to JFK, EWR, ORD and LAX combined. When paperwork is complete YYZ shall be next destination.

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  6. It is said that Air Serbia is more or less prepared for US flights despite the fact that the single plane has not been chosen and rented yet plus regulatory approval has not been issued. But are there any information regarding the pilots who will fly A330, it is unusual that nobody disclosed had Air Serbia finished training of its pilots for A330.

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    Replies
    1. Has Air Serbia opened offices in New York yet?
      Does anyone know?

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    2. There is a representative for the Americas.

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  7. What share of that is Air Serbia realistically aiming to get?

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    1. IMHO, about 1/3: no matter how patriotic many people are, most are very price sensitive, so we can't expect even all O&D traffic to go to JU. Another issue is that connecting "straight" in western Europe is vastly superior experience to either connecting in the US or backtracking. Finally, JU doesn't have strong enough regional network to win business travelers on convenience of connections.
      It will be really tough to make a business case for this line, especially since ATH and BUD that are much bigger tourist destinations can only support summer seasonal flights to North America...

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    2. +1
      The major LH group airlines (LH, OS, LX) have captures a lot of the Balkan-US market with one stop connections to every major city in the US and plenty of frequencies.

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    3. Kako ste vi pametni svako od vas vodi svoju uspesnu kompaniju za transatlantske letove. Kakvi geniji srecom JAT vas nije angazovao kada je imao 14 letova sedmicno za Ameriku. Sada imaju samo 5 da probaju trziste.

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    4. Anon 12:53 you are comparing today's liberalized transatlantic market with the one 25 years ago?
      LOL!

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    5. Ne nego vase genijalno poznavanja transatlantskog saobracaja, a da niste putovali tamo vise od dva puta.

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    6. SuisseOuest fully agree.
      PRG also with very big tourists visiting has only Delta flying to the US seasonally.

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    7. Дечко ТзарNovember 16, 2015 at 3:47 PM

      PRG, ATH and BUD currently don't have domestic airlines with long haul fleet. (OK is in KE hands so they fly to Asia instead of US). The only real option for them to get US service is by US carriers, and big US3 are currently in a great financial position and can afford to be picky when it comes to non premuim destinations like those 3 cities, so they only fly limited service there. US3 widebody cabins are also tilted towards premium seating that doesn't fit demand to CEE. Once they figure out how to emulate Eurowings or Air Canada Rouge model, CEE will get more attention from US3.

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  8. Zar nije mudrije i fleksibilnije započeti letove sa dva A332 i letovima za Njujork i recimo Čikago ili Njujork i Toronto, nego sa jednim A332 i samo Njujorkom?

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    Replies
    1. Mudrije mozda, ali mora da se ima dobra finansijska zaledjina za tako nesto. Pa samo za najam bi trebalo vise od miliona mesecno, da ne pricamo o dampingu, marketingu...

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  9. Admin - Typo, I guess, Chicago is ORD, not OHD :)

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  10. Strong demand? Are there any data what is the demand for Croatia form the US?

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    Replies
    1. It's probably much higher because of tourism in Dalmatia.
      But both markets, Serbia and Croatia are well covered by the big European carriers.
      ASL will need to seriously compete with them and be prepared for a price war.
      Best of luck to them.

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    2. There was an article maybe 5 years ago which had the figure at around 200,000. Since than a lot more visitors have come to Croatia from the US so I would guess 250,000 at least now.

      The real figure shouldn't be hard to find if someone knows someone at the Croatian CAA.

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    3. It is 7-8 times as strong. That is why one or two long haul routes are introduced from JFK to Croatia every year.

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  11. Postovani gospodine Aleksandre Stojanovicu. Hval Vam na ovom zadnjem komentaru o Er Srbiji. Zaista delim vas pogled za pocetak Preko okeanskih letova. Jos samo da kupim kartu do JFK, pa i prakticno da demantujem neutemeljene, koji lete svojim zlomisljem, uglavnom. Sa pozdravom iz Kraljeva. ✈Rodney✈SYD✈

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  12. Looks like Belgrade airport has not been approved as a transit point to the USA by the TSA just yet.

    I would assume it will be a bit of a wait plus another visit to Belgrade by TSA before Air Serbia has official approval for USA flights?

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    Replies
    1. Wasn't last week that ASL would get the final approval from the Americans?
      Wasn't that mentioned in the presentation of the flights by Vucic and ASL's management or am I missing something?

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    2. Maybe everyone who is involved with ASL (mgt and gov't) are now trying to find a way to play the blame game . They made the announcement prematurly. Wouldn't you first make sure all approvals have been secured? With the events happening in the middle east you know the issue of security will be top prority.


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    3. This TSA issue was announced last week during the press conference when the new flights to NYC were being announced so I doubt they are playing a blame game.

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    4. They were expecting approval last week.
      Looks like they didn't get it and some issues remain.

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    5. Please stop with the intrigues. As with so many occasions in the past, the drama queens here spin the story out of proportion. Nije Dane sisao vesla. If he said this, then the indication is that it will be done within the time frame, or that the clearance might even be on his desk as we speak.

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    6. The sooner the better, but few more things are needed before tickets can be sold. All those approvals are not official yet, slots/schedules are not known, US interline/codeshare partners (and to what destinations), pricing from BEG and other airports (ATH, TGD, TIA etc), marketing and other outstanding logistical items. It's a lot of work and I hope all of this can be done and tickets will be available soon.

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    7. Kad pocinje prodaja karata?

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  13. The real game changer for ASL would be if there would be US Customs at BEG like it is in AUH, that would be big game changer and could push numbers in the right direction.

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    Replies
    1. US Customs preclearance facilities in BEG for only 5 flights a week?
      Not happening.

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    2. Do you even know what are the costs of this facility? Every officer earns about $85K yearly! Then, there's lodging and free tickets for them to travel back and forth. Also, operating systems and such. And UAE is picking up 85% of the tab in AUH.

      CBP would have no issue with opening pre-clearance anywhere if some commits to pay for it long-term. But, that includes at the very least 20-30 US employees plus local security staff, and that alone costs at least $2 million a year.

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  14. Admin, has the quoted figure (143.000 PAX) something to do with both directions ?

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  15. Air Serbia should make summer US flights as much profitable as possible.

    That includes launching Zadar flights (as it was mentioned earlier) and being very present in Split.

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  16. Kao sto odavno pricam da je linija profitabilna ovo je jos jedan dokaz da jeste.
    Nadam se da ce jednog dana ASL leteti za sve gore navedene gradoe .
    INN-NS

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    Replies
    1. Ubicemo se od para na ovoj liniji!

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    2. Naravno linija ce zaraditi dovoljno da se moze jos vise linija otvoriti u USA i Kanadi .
      INN-NS

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    3. Zakljucak istrazivanja je da linija ima potencijala a ne da je profitabilna. To je velika razlika ;)

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    4. Verovtanoca porfitabilnosti u situaciji gde ima potencijala je znatno veca nego gde on ne postoji. Tako, ne viidm neki veci razlog zasto bih doslo do neporfitabilnosti, gledano na duze staze.

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    5. Good luck sa jednim Airbus A330 sto se tice za jos destinacija u SAD i destinacije u Kanadi. Ja ne znam dal postoji jos neka kompanija koja kaze da ce uvesti letove za polu godine za JFK a nema ni masinu za takve letove i jos aerodrom u ovom slucaju BEG ocigledno nije ispunio uslove za ovakve letove.
      Kao sto sam prije rekao, pusti mi "ljubomora" jer nema ni aviona ni dozvole jos uvijek, Air Serbia uzima veliku riziku i po mom moze ovaj projekat svakako proci. Bolje bi bilo da su pricekali i izgradili jos jacu kompaniju i barem duplo bolju Evropsku mrezu sto se tice destinacija i to barem 80 destinacija i duplo vise aviona prije nego sto su uzjahali za SAD. Aegean nema SAD/Kanada letova, ali garantujem da bi oni u ovom trenutku bolje prosli nego srbi i veca je sansa sto se tice LF kod njih nego kod srba. Oni bi lakse mogli popuniti veceg aviona.

      Ovo je politicka destinacija, vjerujem da je Dane Kondic imao dva izbora, ili ces uvesti BEG-JFK da "ja Vucic mogu reci da BEG ima interkontinentalne letove" ili ces dobiti otkaz. Vucic nije uzeo u obzir da Air Serbia ima slabu mrezu, po Ex Yu standardu je fantasticna jer su invalidi protivnici ne bi inace trazili partnera ili investitora, ali slaba je za ovakve letove.

      Za kraj, svaki dan eto ima u prosjeku 392 putnika, ako uzmes u obzir da avion ima oko 260 mjesta, znaci veliki dio od ti 392 putnika bi trebali letiti sa srpskom kompanijom i samo jedan mali broj bi letio preko Frankfurta, Minhena, Pariza, Amsterdama i Istanbula. Svako ko zivi u stvarnosti (decko nije u toj grupi) zna da ne bi nikada tako izgledalo.

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    6. @4:10 Tih 392 putnika su"etnicki"putnici, sto znaci bez transvernih putnika...

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    7. @AnonymousNovember 16, 2015 at 4:10 PM

      Google O&D.

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    8. Prestani da lupetas Aegan vuce turiste u Grcku, a Grci iz Amerike 80% i vise su Grci poreklom iz Male Azije ako nisi ucio istoriju pogledaj Smirnu i ratove tamo 20ih godina proslog veka nista ih posebno ne vuce u Grcku niti su mnogi sacuvali jezik iako drze grcke restorane, delom i obicaje i sl.

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    9. Anon 4:34
      Grci u Torontu barem (a koliko ja znam i u drugim sredinama) su primjer imigracije koja nije zaboravila svoje korjene, drze se zajedno generacijama, posjecuju maticu redovno, imaju svoje skole, bogoslovije itd itd. Ovo znam jer zivim i radim sa njima dugi niz godina, a to o cemu ti pricas iskreno receno nema veze sa vezom.

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    10. Anonymous November 16, 2015 at 4:10 PM

      Auuu. Opet sve najcrnije. Jadna nasa "srpska kompanija" pored takvih morbidnih prognoza.

      A vi, eksperti iz okruzenja, uvek nam pokazete da nema niceg od cele te price. Prvo bejase kasnjenja, pa Boinzi u stalnoj upotrebi, pa hrana, pa neprofitabilnost, pa drzavne subvencije, pa opasnost da cemo posalti feeder Air Berlinu i Al Italiji, pa da se neplaca za gorivo, pa da se neplaca za aerodromske usluge, pa Etihad napusta partnerstvo posle 2018 god., pa da neki stariji avioni iz vremena zajednicke drzave pripadaju vama, pa da nece nikako da radi BEG-ZAG i BEG-TIR letovi zato sto je njima ispod casti leteti preko BEG, pa da se koristi kreativno racunovodstvo, pa da smo mi jadni Srbi toliko siromasni da nema sanse da nam radi aviokompnija, pa do sad sa nekim novim teorijama i crnim prognozama za letove za SAD, itd.

      Aman ljudi, mnogo se bre sekirate oko nase "srpske kompanije". A ona sve jaca i jaca. Kako to da je svaka vasa sekiracija na kraju ostala neosnovana. Okrenite se malo vasim aviokompanijama, pa kad njihova dostignuca su na istom nivo kao nase kompanije, onda daj da opet prodjemo kroz tu vasu bezrkrajnu listu nebuloza, pa kom opanci a kom obojci.

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    11. SM November 16, 2015 at 4:39 PM
      +1000

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    12. Ko ne rizikuje ne moze ni da ocekuje nekakvu dobit ili bilo sta.
      Pricate kako niko nece iz Regiona da leti kao sto ste pricali da nece niko iz ZAG ja koliko znam leti mnogo Hrvata kao sto leti jako dosta stranaca sa ASL .
      Hvala bogu Piloti su na obukama i sve im najbolje zelim .
      Kao sto je ovo verovatno opipavanje terena za jos vise destinacija koje ce se desiti.
      I jos mi nije jasno sto se stalno uporedjuje A3 sa ASL kad kompanije razlicito posluju.
      INN-NS

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    13. Shabani nemaju pojma da je i Grcka Makedonija naseljena debelo izbeglicama iz Male Azije takodje. Vidis da ih ne pustaju u svoje drustvo.

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    14. INN-NS,

      Niko od posada jos nije otisao na obuku. Jos se ceka datum i lista ljudi koji ce otici (najverovatnije u Alitaliju) na obuku.

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    15. Cabin crews za A330 mogu odmah da oforme od "povratnika" iz ME3... jer imaju upisan tip.

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  17. http://flyingbosnian.blogspot.se/2015/11/fly-dubai-is-increasing-flights-from.html

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  18. American Airlines is hinted as Air Serbia codeshare partner from JFK. Application for codeshare to ORD and MIA is with Air Berlin. Passengers from BEG to ORD and MIA will have competing offers with JU/AA and JU/AB.

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  19. 36175 passengers per year computes out to between 100 per day, or perhaps 140 per day if we assume all of them are willing to switch to the five days per week JU operates. If we assume that JU can capture between 1/3 and 1/2 of these passengers without excessive dumping, they'll be able to fill about 50 pax with O&D passengers. The rest they'll have to fill with transit pax. On the BEG side they can probably fill another good ~50-80 transit pax, but those will be lower-yielding, especially outside the Balkans (the non-stop advantage is gone). Even so this is 100-130 pax w/o the feed on the US side, so a codeshare partner on the US side is clearly *essential*. Hopefully JU figures this out before June and gets a solid US partner -- ideally on their own code, not just AB or EY -- to feed the flights on the US side.

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    Replies
    1. If BEG gets inexpensive and non-stop flights to the USA, you can expect that the O/D demand will increase.

      People from SJJ, BUD, ZAG, Timisoara, and Southern Serbia would be more likely to travel to BEG and then fly compared to flying out of their closest airports.

      Also people from BEG that drive to BUD to catch flights there will have more incentive to fly out of BEG.

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    2. anon at 11:37, those are wrong assumptions

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    3. Don't forget that low prices ex BEG have been around only since last year - prior to that, JU interline with VS and to certain extent with AF/KL was the only way to fly under 600 euro r/t. I'd guess more than 1/3 or 1/2 of BEG O&D pax still fly with JU via LHR, CDG and AMS. Short long-haul, such as Europe-JFK will shave off almost 1/3 of time needed to get there when flying non-stop (8 hours, vs. at least 11-13 with connections).

      Also, and I was skeptical about this - but it turns out to be true - so many people HATE connections due to some kind of fear involved with landing at unknown airport, language barrier, baggage safety, etc... If offered with a direct flight to USA, way more than 1/3 or 1/2 of pax will take it, even at a premium.

      Finally, I would fight like hell for ex-JFK pax. Prices out of that market are significantly higher and start at $1,000 to Europe, more or less. While JU might lose the price war in BEG, hardly any airline will take notice of their ex-JFK pax with such low capacity and will not dump their own prices in such wealthy market JFK is - but customers will notice for sure.

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  20. Sa cenom karte 800$ iz usa plus 100$ po evropi ili tlv imaju da se otkinu od putnika koji idu u evropu.

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