Friday, April 8, 2016

Zagreb Airport eyes busy summer

Zagreb Airport set for strong passenger growth following record Q1

Zagreb Airport anticipates record passenger growth this summer season with the arrival of new airlines, the launch of new routes, as well as the addition of frequencies and capacity on existing services. "We are entering the summer season with optimism. All of these factors will surely result in continued passenger growth, which will serve as the best possible introduction to the new phase of our business development, which begins with the opening of our new passenger terminal", the airport says. It adds, "Over the past two years, seven carriers have introduced services to Zagreb, boosting competitiveness and improving connectivity to new destinations, as well as frequencies on existing routes".

Headlining Zagreb Airport's summer season this year is Croatia Airlines, which will introduce four new destinations including Lisbon, Milan, Prague and St. Petersburg. Furthermore, Czech Airlines will launch four weekly flights from Prague later this month, returning to the Croatian capital after a four year hiatus. Air Malta also plans to operate one weekly seasonal charters to Zagreb from July 18 through to August 15. Notably, the Croatian capital will boast two long haul services this summer with Canada's Air Transat to introduce seasonal flights from Toronto on June 14. The carrier says, "There is a high level of interest for Zagreb and booking numbers are very good". On the other hand, Korean Air will resume its charters from Seoul on May 20. A total of eleven flights will operate during the summer (May, June, September and October) with an Airbus A330 aircraft. In addition, the charter carrier Wings of Lebanon, which last year ran service to Dubrovnik, will also fly to Zagreb this year, operating a one weekly flight from Beirut, starting July 3 to September 11, with a Boeing 737-300 aircraft.

Both LOT Polish Airlines and Qatar Airways will boost frequencies on their services to Zagreb this summer, with the former operating daily flights from Warsaw, and the latter ten weekly services from Doha, which is up from seven weekly last year. Furthermore, both Air France and KLM have increased capacity on their respective services to the Croatian capital. On Monday, the French national carrier upgraded equipment on its daily flight from Paris from a 100-seat Embraer E190 jet to the larger Airbus A318, which has the capacity to seat 135 passengers. Furthermore, the change sees the service operated by Air France itself rather than its regional subsidiary HOP!. Similarly, KLM has upgraded its daily operations from Amsterdam from the E190 to a 122-seat Boeing 737-700 aircraft, which features twenty business class seats, twelve economy comfort seats and a further ninety standard economy class seats. The upgrade sees the route transferred from KLM Cityhopper to KLM's mainline operations. The B737-700 will be utilised until September 5, after which the E190 will make a comeback on the route.

Zagreb Airport handled a record number of passengers during the first quarter to the year, welcoming 509.387 travellers over the past three months, an increase of 6.5% compared to the same period in 2015. Furthermore, the number of aircraft movement increased to 8.906, up 0.7%.

MonthPAXChange (%)
JAN156.947 4.2
FEB153.077 7.9
MAR199.201 7.3

86 comments:

  1. Well done Zagreb. Goes to show what a competent management can do in a relatively short period of time.

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    1. EU membership has also helped :)

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    2. Nice one, I expect Aegean, SAS, Alitalia, TAP, EasyJet, will re-launch their service in 2017 one new terminal opens.

      This year 2.8 million, next year 3.05 million is my projection. This year 21000 landings top, next year 22500 top.

      What I am noticing there are fewer flights each year, yet more pax per flight, this is really good trend, reason why I think Zagreb won't have massive growth in number of flights, 22500 is my absolute max for 2017, Can't see number go much higher then 24000 in 2018 when I predict Zagreb to handle around 3.4 million and 25500 landings in 2019 when I hope Zagreb might hit 3.7 million. 4.0 million is almost dead cert by 2020, and 27000 landings.

      My prediction.

      2015 - 2.588 million - 20 000 landings
      2016 - 2.8 million - 21000 landings
      2017 - 3.05 million - 22500 landings
      2018 - 3.4 million - 24000 landings
      2019 - 3.7 million - 25500 landings
      2020 - 4.05 million - 27000 landings.

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    3. Someone wrote a similar comment the other day.

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    4. I think one LCC will base plane in ZAG when new terminal will be opened (most likely easyJet). And that would be at least 470.000 passengers more that year. Including other companies that would be at least 600.000 passenger in 2017 more.

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    5. @AnonymousApril 8, 2016 at 2:27 PM

      I need to be realistic and used my conservative estimates,

      300-350 000 growth is possible, 200-250 000 initially. i know AS OU grows, growth of traffic will also grown significantly, OU plans a fleet of 20 aircraft:

      4 A319
      6 A320 Neo
      6 Q400
      4 CS100

      Current Utilization of the fleet is around 70%, needs to be around 80%, or about 2.1 million pax per year. Imagine a fleet of 20 aircraft and Utilization of 80%, that corresponds to 3.5 million pax and if we assume 70% of it will be made through Zagreb airport, conclusion is 2.5 million pax, from current 1.4 million this is nearly 1.1 million growth over next 10 years, only OU, with 30 other foreign carriers at Zagreb and LCs Zagreb could hit 7.5 million pax in 2025, however this is over next 10 years.

      At current rate that would corresponds to around annual increase of around 12%, not sure how sustainable that is over 10 year period.


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  2. Good work for ZAG. Now it should really focus on trying to get a LCC to base a plane there. Maybe Eurowings?

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    1. Easy jet would be good too but they left a few years ago. Considering their presence in Croatia during the summer, I hope they are at least considering ZAG.

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    2. It is because there is no difference in ZAG LCC and legacy carrier service. Basically in this moment ZAG does not have this opportunity (separation and lower and cheaper service) and capacity do bring LCC.

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    3. And fly to where? Vienna, Munich and Frankfurt are all out of capacity....

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  3. The new terminal can't come soon enough.

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    1. Wasn't the roof supposed to be made of glass?

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  4. My wish list for ZAG:

    A US carrier at least seasonal or Air Canada. Best would be UA with OU shuttle to the coast vv
    KE with scheduled flights
    TP back to LIS
    SK

    Looking fwd to visit Pleso in 6 month. All the best for the SUTT

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  5. Qatar's today Doha service will be an A321, A7-ADS

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  6. This is what someone posted in the comments a few weeks ago. Hope it happens

    Also, had a chat with Zagreb management in past few days, there are talks with quite a few new airlines for flights to Zagreb, 2016 might be hard as current terminal is packed and management would like to offer better service at new terminal once it opens, so there was bit of reluctance to flog off Zagreb so fast.

    OK, major US Carrier is in talks for summer seasonal flights connecting New York and Zagreb, flights should metallize in 2017 if all goes well, Croatian Government is mentioned in form of subsidizing some of the flights to Zagreb and Dubrovnik.

    Details are still sketchy but we'll know more in coming months.
    Korean Air has asked for free afternoon slots at Zagreb for 2017, they'd like to start twice a week service from Seoul to Zagreb with London/Frankfurt being final destination. Talks are still ongoing however, this is not the only airline that is talking flights to Zagreb from Asia, Chinese Carrier, not mentioned which one has serious plans for Zagreb and Dubrovnik, they have held talks with Zagreb for past year and are very serious, however old terminal is only reason why flights didn't materialize yet. Another Japanese carrier is also holding talks with Zagreb, not JAL, in starting seasonal and potentially year round service if seasonal flights prove successful, Zagreb had 220 000 Japanese visitors in 2015, 145 000 Chinese Visitors and 270 000 Korean Visitors, fyi.

    British Airways is keen on increasing its frequency to Zagreb, it seems they had very good 2015 serving Zagreb, no concrete informations as of yet but they'd like to have double daily starting with April next year. This is where it is heading based on current projections. Amsterdam, London, Paris and Frankfurt are most successful routes out of Zagreb, with Vienna, Munich and Rome also being in very high demand.

    475000 French, 425000 British and 325 000 Dutch visitors visited Croatia in 2015. FYI.

    Alitalia, SAS, Aegean and Finnair are in talks with Zagreb airport starting flights to Zagreb from summer season in 2017, SAS would serve daily flights to Stockholm and eventually connecting Oslo and Copenhagen too. Aegean is short of planes and this is only reason they couldn't slot Zagreb yet, they wanted to do it in 2015, but lack planes for Zagreb service for three weekly service. Finnair wants to test Zagreb in summer first to see if flights prove successful to maintain three weekly flights, They're interested in flights starting May or June 2017.

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    1. cntd....

      Aer Lingus, Irish Carrier has also been in touch and the're looking for twice weekly service to Zagreb, connecting Dublin and Zagreb. Alitalia would like to start similar flights connecting Zagreb with Rome on a daily basis and adding Milano and perhaps Florence at some stage as well.

      Tap is coming back in April of 2017.

      AirBaltic is also interested in three weekly service to Zagreb with flights from Riga and perhaps even adding Vilnius if flights prove successfully. Tallinn is another option however this won't happen next year.

      EasyJet is also interested in returning to Zagreb, connecting LGW with Zagreb with four weekly flights, talks are still ongoing however if BA comes in hard not sure how EasyJet can compete on London route.

      There are few other carriers, including Singapore Airlines which are keen on starting flights to Zagreb on seasonal basis at first. Singapore has been talking to Zagreb for better part of past 6 months. They'd like to tap in to Kiwi and Aussie markets, where some 170 000 visitors to Croatia and Zagreb came from in 2015 and 80 000 Malayan and ASEN visitors.

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    2. That would all be really nice but I highly doubt it.

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    3. I can imagine european airlines starting services, but I highly doubt in any longhaul apart from seasonal US/Canada and maybe Korea.

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    4. I think with the new terminal we will see at least one surprise. I cant wait. I also hope that this nice investment will yield out to some nice new visitors

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    5. "Korean Air has asked for free afternoon slots at Zagreb for 2017, they'd like to start twice a week service from Seoul to Zagreb with London/Frankfurt being final destination."

      Makes absolutely no sense.

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    6. If some of these plans materialize, it will be great, and I'm sure some of them will!

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    7. Oh yes I remember that guy who posted all the above!!He was a guy that works in an architect firm which is building an airport and had no PROOF of whatever he wrote!

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    8. What kind of proof would you need? A contract? A picture?

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    9. twice a week as stop to LHR or FRA that really makes no sense. I could understand
      - one flight per week nonstop,
      - or ZAG with stop in ATH on way to ICN
      - or ZAG with stop in IST on way to ICN
      - or even ICN-FRA-ZAG-FRA-ICN or ICN-MXP-ZAG-MXP-ICN
      - or ZAG as stop on way to BCN

      But ICN-ZAG-FRA of ICN-ZAG-LHR no sense!

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    10. So if Singapore starts flying to Zagreb, would that affect loads on Qatar flights?

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    11. Of course SQ would impact QR negatively. But I don't really expect SQ to start ZAG since there are way more attractive options for them in EU, especially having in mind that SQ is a bit more up scale carrier pricing wise. Also, SQ would need to face bloodbath that QR can manage more easily (more connectivity and destinations, lower costs, smaller plane...). Not sure if ZAG is worth to them that much.I don't expect SQ by any means here. EK would come much sooner, and I also do not expect them any time soon.

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    12. Dear anon 2:33PM I remember exactly my conversation with him and he told me he had sources for whatever he wrote and in the end he proved himself wrong because all of these he wrote were just his wishes and speculations for ZAG airport!

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    13. So there were no new carriers in Zagreb last year (or there are no new carriers in Zagreb this year), Anonymous 3:44 PM? What I mean is, he was wrong about absolutely everything?

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    14. Dear anon 4:22PM please read carefully of whatever he wrote,almost everywhere he refers of what is going to happen in the year 2017 and when I asked for his sources he just told me he was informed from "inside"!!!Finally the "inside"was just his mind that created all of this.

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    15. Anon 4:50 PM, as long as you don't have any visible evidence for your claims, please let the guy above alone. Your posts, on the other hand, show your obvious desire for Zagreb to fail, it's a private company now, they're probably negotiating with other carriers, some of these "wishes" will probably happen, some of them definitely won't.

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    16. My friend anon 6:02PM,I really don't have any reason to hate ZAG airport or any other airport it's readiculous!Okay I get it I have to deal with dreamers that's fine with me.

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    17. Good, thank you, sweety!

      xoxo

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    18. Any news on possible services on new Zagreb terminal, shops, bookstores?

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    19. There is more information on the duty free offering in this article from last year

      http://www.exyuaviation.com/2015/10/development-of-zagrebs-new-terminal.html

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  7. Congratulations ZAG! The future seems quite promising! ZAG is the opposite to SKP, where it covers major European airports but lacks LCC. I am hoping to see Volotea, Wizzair, Ryanair serving the old terminal. It´s going ot be a good year for Hrvatska :)

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  8. And when 2017 comes, he will be like, there are talks for airlines to come to Zagreb in 2018. When 2018 comes ...... 2020 should be our year..

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    1. And with so many new companies that comes to Zagreb last 2 years and will come in few months:

      - Qatar,
      - flyDubai,
      - KLM,
      - CSA,
      - Brussels,
      - Swiss,
      - Air Transat,
      - Air Nostrum,
      - Air Serbia,
      - LOT,
      - Trade air (to Osijek and Rijeka),
      - Wings of Lebanon
      - 4 new Croatia Airlines routes

      + bigger capacity and more frequencies on lot of routes (KLM, Air France, Lufthansa, Croatia Airlines, Korean, Qatar...)

      you still can say it is not happening???


      Admin, you forget Lufthansa 7 new flights to Frankfurt.

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    2. Zagreb airport management is doing a great job, some people just can't get over it. That's why there are fewer comments on the blog when the (positive) news is about Zagreb! Good luck, can't wait for the new terminal to open!

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    3. Postovani kolega Purgeru, ovo otvaranje ZAG je iz perspektive putnika sjajna vest, medjutim rukovodstvo OU ce dobiti veliku glavobolju obzirom da ce konkurencija odneti dobar deo kolaca koji je nekada pripadao samo njima.

      Pozdrav iz Beograda, uz cestitke

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    4. Apsolutno.

      I što bi neki rekli na ovom blogu

      "It is not a good news for Croatia Airlines"

      I nije... ali globalno za putnike jest. Činjenica je da su karte iz ZAG ozbiljno pojeftinile od kada je došao KLM, LOT, Brussels, CSA... tj. od kada imamo više mogućnosti konekcija.

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    5. poštovani Anonymous@12:27PM - u pravu ste što će novih kompanija na prvu ruku zasmetati OU. Međutim, taj isti OU se sada pokreće jer je shvatio da bez tržišne borbe nema ništa. Kontrolirana konkurencija je sasvim u redu. Da je OU bio tako sjajan, već bi davno postao ono što je ASL danas, a imao je hrpu prilika... OU se jednostavno "uljuljao" u ulozi tobožnjem "regionalnog lidera", izgubio svaku veću ambiciju i zadovoljio se ulogom Star Alliance pulena...
      Cijene koje su "derali" za ZRH i BRU dok nije bilo Swissa, ni Brusseles airlinesa su bile strašne... na taj način se ne širi promet ni kvaliteta, već se nemilice "grabi vrhnje" i to na najgori mogući način...

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    6. Mada treba imati i u vidu da OU nije mogla da reaguje par godina zbog EU pravila, ne bas svojom voljom. U svakom slucaju cestitke Zagrebackom aerodromu.

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    7. Ma da... izgovori, izgovori i izgovori.

      Trade air im je ponudio da preuzmu one linije koje su ukinuli, te da otvore nove u code-share sa OU dok traje restrukturacije. OU je to odbila! Sapienti sat!

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  9. OT

    I have a few questions and I hope someone could answer them.

    1. Does anyone know who will operate Belgrade-Burgas charter flights this summer? Aviolet?

    2. Do we know if there will be some foreign charter airlines in BEG given that most of the tourists will be spending their holidays in the EU this summer.

    3. If I remember correctly, OU's first BEG flight was from DBV which was eventually dropped and replaced with SPU (which is being increased by both JU and OU). Given that JU is increasing DBV this summer, how come OU has not returned as well? The market is there, that's for sure. With competitive pricing they could capture some of the Montenegro market. Are they ignoring DBV-BEG because they don't have the necessary aircraft?

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  10. LJU will be eaten by ZAG...

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    1. Not if they start attracting lowcost carriers. So far ZAG is lacking in that department but then again, I think LJU won't do much about it.

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    2. What I would do if I had some huge money to invest in transportation project - there is military/civilian airport just across SLO/CRO border near Brežice - Cerklje ob Krki (ZAG max 30 min away, LJU max 1h) with great access from highway LJU-ZAG. Currently it is used only by Slovenian Air Forces, just upgraded to latest NATO standards (NATO $$$). There are plans to build a terminal and logistic center also for civilian purposes (project Phoenix), but far from any materialization since this was project from political parties from right side. With some serious investor, cheap termnial can be build if at the same time LCC could be attracted to setup a base serving both ZAG and LJU.

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    3. But would it make commercial sense? In a relatively small area you would have four airports: Zagreb, Ljubljana, Maribor and this one. Given the fiasco in MBX I doubt Slovenia would be too interested.

      Also, I am sure ZAG would lobby hard against it. They've just invested millions in building a new terminal and the last thing they need is additional competition which would lower their yields.

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  11. Does anyone know the estimated percentage of passengers who use ZAG to transfer to coastal cities vs. passengers who stay in Zagreb during their visit?

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    1. Last time I saw the numbers only about 15% were transfering to the coast.

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    2. Thanks. This actually means Zagreb alone is getting more and more interesting to visitors of different types.

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  12. In addition to what has officially been communicated in this article and other press releases, OU will also be running around 12 rotations to BEY this July and August. About one third of the flights will be direct, while the rest will have a stop-over in OMO.

    p.s. today is the 3rd time this month that Air France has sent its A319 aircraft to ZAG...

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    1. OU should code-share with JU to BEY.

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    2. Perhaps yes for the year-long connections, but these particular flights cater for the charter market demands...


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    3. OU should introduce a night flight to BEG, arrival at around 22.00 and departing at 06.00.

      JU should also reschedule their departure.

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    4. By same logic Air Serbia should code-share Croatia on routes to Munich, Lisbon, Zadar and Barcelona.

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    5. Why not? Especially since they don't fly to those destinations but it's OU that turned down JU, not the other way around.

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    6. How can you know that?

      I grantee you that JU did not ask so OU could not turned them down!

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    7. They did actually. Everyone in the company knows. It was around a year ago. JU management went to Zagreb, proposed codeshare on ZAG-BEG and got turned down.

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    8. for ZAG-BEG it make sense, for other routes that never happen!

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    9. The treatment of JU by OU is indicative of the overall treatment of Serbian companies in Croatia.

      Therefore, JU should view OU as a hostile competitor, and move onto its markets, without compensation. At this stage, OU stands to lose far more than JU.

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  13. With growth like this, what kind of growth will we see once the new terminal is built? Could Zagreb actually become the busiest airport in the former SFRJ? The potential is there. Zagreb will be still using the old terminal, so I feel there won't be an issue regarding capacity. The sleeping dinosaur has woken up.

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    1. Ne treba zaboraviti BEG koji krece od Juna i koji nece ostati na 1 wide-body liniji bice zanimljivo.
      INN-NS

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    2. But dont forget that new airports don't create demand by just existing. Significanbtly higher numbers will not come unless OU increases transit traffic, local economy recovers and subsequently people start to earn more and by the looks of it currently it all depends on incoimg demand increase - it will go up, but it cannot be in millions. Again, nicer airport does not attract airlines, demand does. All the best to all ex Yu airports!

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    3. Odlicno ovo za Beograd, nadam se uspjehu! Svakako cu isprobati vec ove godine u 9 mj. ako se dobro pogodi let iz Zg za Bg bez duljeg cekanja

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    4. ZAG's development will certainly be interesting to follow, to say the least. It caters to a bit different market than BEG. I think both ZAG and BEG possess different sets of strenghts and weaknesses, some of which are:

      BEG "Pros"
      1. centralized airport traffic serving the population of over 8 mil
      2. the city is a growing business and tourist destination
      3. ASL is a regional airline leader with a strong route development strategy that focuses on transit traffic

      BEG "Cons":
      1. Domestic market is fairly weak economically and is reliant on price dumpings and/or LCC
      2. Capacity-related issues that needs to be answered by one of the investment strateges whether to put the airport up for a concession or not...
      3. ASL dominance: has reprecussions on 2 things: readiness of other airlines to expand their operations from BEG and investors' readiness to invest into the airport infrastructure

      ZAG „Pros“
      1. Catering to the domestic market that is economically the strongest in the entire Ex Yu
      2. Ex Yu tourist destination powerhouse, with a growing business potential (conferences that require building of a conference center)
      3. New terminal will allow easy/comfortable transfers and ZAG is the most suitable transfer hub for the Croatian coast and/or the incoming tourists that rent cars and explore wider surroundings (Zagorje, Plitvice Lakes), including the coast
      4. New terminal allows for the easy long-term passenger growth... with little or no restriction for slots etc.
      ZAG „Cons“
      1. Surrounded by several large hubs and other coastal airports which makes the „hub“ model more difficult
      2. Weaker national carrier that will probably have a hard time growing and regaining its position of a regional leader
      3. So far, the traffic policy has not been encouraging for the LCC carriers

      My conclusion is that in the long run, both cities have huge potential and at some point should try to design a better model of cooperation, so as to weaken Budapest and Vienna which are directly „stealing“ pax from both ZAG and BEG: Vienna via transfer flights (they are the „real“ Balkan hub, while Budapest for offering dirt cheap Wizz fares...
      Many winter routes could do so much better and could be sustained year round should BEG and ZAG allow flight transfers... at ZAG they could happen easily and painlessly...and both airlines and airports could benefit from that. Too small damn markets to act like they can sustain themselves independently...

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    5. Mark my words, in the coming years, BEG's main competitor in ex-YU won't be ZAG but either SPU or DBV (probably the latter).

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    6. no way. much bigger european resorts are dead in the winter, let alone those two... populaton/business base is simply lacking for that to happen...

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    7. Doesn't matter, as time goes buy they will handle more and more passengers during the summer months and those leading to them. Look at Larnaca or Paphos, the former handles over one million passengers in August alone. Rhodes is another good example.

      The amount of passengers they will welcome during the high season will compensate for the slow months. In the coming few years Zagreb will no longer be the number one airport in Croatia- that is unless an airline starts building a hub or that Zagreb miraculously becomes a tourist and/or a business Mecca which I highly doubt.

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    8. SPU has not enough space for big growth. Building 2 taxiways is already a big show.
      And on both finals you have towns/villages near the airport.
      You can deal the development of the landside, but the airside is much more difficult.

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    9. Exactly which is why I pointed out that it will most likely be DBV that will keep on growing. The thing with SPU is that there can be two solutions, find a place to build a new airport or expand the existing one by purchasing the land and property all around to make space for the much needed expansion.

      At some point they will have to find a solution as things are already getting out of hand during the summer.

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    10. I personally think Zagreb will maintain its lead as Croatia's biggest airport because once the new terminal in up and running I believe the focus by the management will shift towards increasing LCC presence which should give Zagreb a pretty decent boost in passenger numbers especially if they can become a LLC focus in the region.

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    11. Yeah but still, there is a limit which is linked to the number of people that live in Zagreb's catchment area. It's not like they can surpass five or six million passengers per year just on O&D. Furthermore, what will happen if LJU starts attracting lowcost carriers? What if Wizz Air decides to expand there by opening a base? What if FR/W6 opens a base in BNX? What if FR keeps on expanding in Osijek? All of these potential (and quite realistic) scenarios will take away a considerable amount of passengers from Zagreb.

      Coastal airports will keep on growing as long as Croatia keeps on promoting tourism. I think we can all agree that it's much easier to sell Dubrovnik or Split than Zagreb.

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    12. @NemjeeApril 9, 2016 at 9:03 AM

      Slovenians prefer to use car and only fly to destinations that requires 3 hours drive or longer destinations,

      Fine example is Frankfurt, Rome or Paris.

      Wizzair is a low of the low cost operators and I am not referring to the price, i am referring to their quality of service.

      Most Slovenians prefer to use any other airline other than Wizz. So Wizz has little chance of setting up some sort of a base as most Slovenians trawlers would stay clear of that Airline, they know Wizz offers poor quality.

      Look Wizz left Croatia precisely cause most Croats don't want to fly with Wizz.

      Eventually when the base is set up I'm sure Wizz air will be back in Zagreb, however so will be Vueling, Norwegian Shuttle, German Wings (who will base two or 3 aircraft in Zagreb), EasyJet and so on.

      As is now, LCCs aren't excited due to the fact that they're treated same way as legacy carriers, once new terminal opens there is a room to manoeuvre for airport's management and with 3-4 LCCs setting up a base in Zagreb, Norwegian. German and EasyJet, very likely, you'll see Zagreb numbers go up.

      As things stand atm, Zagreb is served poorly by LCCs, however look at Riga, Vilnius, Gdansk, Krakow and similar airports and you can see where Zagreb is heading in few years time.

      Zagreb could hit 5.0 million pax by 2020 if LCCs come in and set up a base, it could actually hit 5.5 million, as is without LCC's Zagreb is expected to hit 4.0 million by 2020 based on organic growth, no LCCs.

      For a reference, most airports that had LCCs come in grew rapidly in matter of very few years, from 700-800 000 for Krakow to 3.0 million in very short space of time, Same with Riga and Gdansk.

      Zagreb can duplicate that and considering the fact that Croatia is a massive tourist destination with 15 million visitors each year, you can bet your $ Zagreb will hit big numbers.

      And Legacy Carriers don't need to worry, most LCC travel is weekend brake or short hops for a brake in the country side. Right now there are 70-80 000 permanent EU residents living in Croatia from Germany, Benelux, Scandinavia, UK, France, Italy and Spain. This numberer will grow a lot more in coming years to about 5% of Croatia's population by 2020 and 10% by 2025.

      You can bet this will drive additional traffic to Croatia and in particular Zagreb where majority of EU Residents live.




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    13. I don't know, I am not buying the whole 'Croats and Slovenes won't fly on Wizz Air.' Don't forget that Slovenes already fly on Wizz which has two destinations out of LJU. Ex-Yugoslavia is still a predominantly poor region and people will fly on whoever offers the cheapest fare. Yes, I know W6 failed in Zagreb the last time around but today they are a much different airline and if they can effectively fight Ryanair or operate a six aircraft base in Sofia, then I am sure they will do just fine in ZAG.

      Now, both Belgrade and Skopje experienced this lowcost boom. In BEG Wizz Air handles around 450.000 passengers with a 1.5 aircraft base. Without a base in ZAG we can expect them to carry around 300.000 passengers. I highly doubt FR would be interested in opening a base at a rather expensive airport such as ZAG. I know they fly from centrally located airports in some places but it's usually in higher yielding markets or in those where they have no alternative. You did not mention what will happen in ZAG if LJU or BNX start turning into lowcost airports? They will not only attract passengers from Zagreb but also those from places in Croatia that currently gravitate towards ZAG.

      I will repeat myself, Croatian tourism is on the coast. That's also where its future is. Zagreb will always have a certain number of tourists but it will most likely never match Budapest or Vienna for its O&D numbers to go anywhere beyond 5 million passengers. Dubrovnik or Split have a great chance as both airports could easily handle over 1.5 million passengers per a summer month. I am sure that city authorities are thinking of ways to promote the coast during the winter months, especially with older people from places like Norway, Denmark, The UK...

      Also, there is something we must not forget. When LCCs launched flights to BEG, Jat took a really big hit. What will happen to OU? Could they compete with FR or W6? Their yields will take a big hit and we don't know what their reaction will be. So it's not just about creating new passengers, there are also those who will switch from legacy carriers onto LCCs.

      The only way ZAG could move past the 5 million mark is if OU (or some other airline) starts building a hub system.

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    14. @NemjeeApril 9, 2016 at 4:19 PM

      I think you forogot the fact that new managemant of the airport wants to turn old terminal in to a low cost base, they'll make deals with GermanWings, Norvegian, EasyJet and Vueling to benefit all parties. I am sure they can get some serious ball rolling from mid 2017, till then LCCs will need to wait.

      Ljubljana can become a low cost base indeed, however so can Maribor and Graz. All relatively close to Zagreb.

      However I don't think this will pose any serious problem for Zagreb, mainly cause Zagreb is more convenient for Zagreb metro area, and with good train connections in northern Croatia Zagreb has decent chink of the market all to itself.

      However LCC offer must exit in Zagreb primarily to make Zagreb more attractive as a city brake, last year Zagreb had 1.02 million foreign visitors, this year this number could hit 1.15 million and 2.0 million nights. nowhere near to what Coastal resorts get in terms of nights, but in terms of arrivals Zagreb beats Dubrovnik and Split.

      Zagreb is financial and economic centre of Croatia, that also has some weight when it comes to Airport pax. As to coastal airport booming, sure they'll experience significant growth, however so will Zagreb.

      Spit might hit 2.5 million pax by 2020, Dubrovnik 2.2 million, however they'll continue to be empty during October 31st through to March 15th, with few flights, this is what all resort airports experience.

      Can they overtake Zagreb at some point in a distant future, sure everything is possible, it is probable, no it won't happen.

      Zagreb will hit 300k pax per month this year in July, August and September, next year June, October will also be over 300k, and in 2018 only January and February will be bellow 300k, with August and July probably hitting 500k.

      Zagreb, if LCCs arrive, all 4 I mentioned and each bases 1 aircraft in Zagreb, I can guarantee you, Zagreb will hit 5.0 million pax easily.

      LCC Terminal is capable of handling 3.0 million pax after it is redecorated and interior sorted to allow for maximum efficiency.

      And by 2020 Terminal 1 might actually handle 2.5 million pax on it own due to LCCS, New terminal I expect will handle around 3.0 million,.

      The risk of legacy carriers from low cost competitors isn't significant as most passengers that arrive to Zagreb or use Zagreb airport are largely non-Croatian, around 70% are foreign business or tourist visitors.

      You compare the passenger structure of Gdansk, Riga and Krakow Airports, you's realize mostly these are domestic passengers with around 20-25% being city brake visitors. What that illustrates to me is that Zagreb growth hasn't even started yet, plenty of room for LCCs and legacy carriers.

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    15. Well, I guess we will have to sit and wait to see how things turn out in the end. As always, time will tell. One thing is certain and that there are fun times ahead, not just for Croatia but for the whole Balkan peninsula.

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  14. Bravo for Zagreb and quite possibly the best management in the region!! Split could really look up to Zagreb and Dubrovnik. In any case, the new terminal cannot come soon enough, because once it's opened, the traffic can finally start growing without constantly having to put breaks on!
    By now it's clear that Belgrade, Zagreb and Dubrovnik airports have profiled themselves as the three major players...
    Btw, if it is correct what they are saying, the current terminal will become specialized exclusively for lcc

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  15. Ako Admin ili neko drugi ima odgovor na pitanje, sta je sa letovima Doha-Sarajevo, letovi vise nisu u sistemu??

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    1. Seems as per GDS they are now moved to November.

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  16. What is new with flight to DBV on september?? Qatar, Emirates, Ettihad??

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    1. Forget abt that. No sane airline would START after summer...

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  17. OT FlyDubai Sarajevo-Dubai two times on 5 days a week

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    1. lol what does two times on 5 days mean? From what I deciphered you are saying that there will be double daily flights on 5 out of 7 days and then on the rest of days 1 flight.

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    2. Yes of course. There will be double daily flights on 5 out of 7 days. Thx

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    3. Yes, from 10/07 to 13/09 double daily on Mon,Tue,Thu,Fri and Sun. Sarajevo will be connected to UAE with 3 daily flights (FlyDubai and Air Arabia)!

      Delete

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