Thursday, June 2, 2016

CEO: Several scenarios for Croatia Airlines' future


The CEO of Croatia Airlines, Krešimir Kučko, has said there are several likely scenarios for the carrier's future, noting that both Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines could  be potentially interested in the company. "There are different scenarios that include different business strategies that would influence the size of the company. Personally, I believe we have a future even without a partner. It could be somewhat more difficult and result in slower and smaller-scale growth, but there is certainly a future", Mr Kučko said. He added, "If the decision is made to sell the company, we will be sold. If a decision is made to go through recapitalisation, we will put all our efforts into it. Only recapitalisation can secure quick growth and long-term stability for the company. The Minister [for Sea, Transport and Infrastructure] said there is no quicker way to develop than with a strategic partner, which is true. However, at the same time, expansion without a partner, is possible, albeit slower than anticipated. In our first year after restructuring, we have launched more new routes than ever before, even without a strategic partner".

The airline's CEO said that during his previous talks with the CEOs of both Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines at the Star Alliance Chief Executive Board Meeting in Chicago in December last year, there was no talk of a possible takeover. However, "that does not mean there is no interest now", Mr Kučko added. Last month, Turkish Airlines confirmed interest in its Croatian counterpart following several weeks of speculation. The airline’s Chief Human Resources Officer, Abuldkerim Cay, said his company sees an equity investment in Croatia Airlines as a good business opportunity and noted that a potential deal would benefit both sides. Last December, Lufthansa denied claims it was seeking to acquire the Croatian carrier, labelling the claims as "untrue". On the other hand. recapitalisation, which Mr Kučko is backing, would entail changes to the airline’s capital. This may occur, for instance, when a creditor exchanges a loan for a stake but does not require changes to the company’s management structure.

According to Croatia Airlines' CEO, the company could be of interest to financial institutions, which are not linked to the aviation industry. "We are a regional company that does business globally and a large amount of revenue is made on offline markets. This could make it appealing to investors that are outside of the aviation industry. That would include any financial institution that wants to generate profits on investment", Mr Kučko concluded. Earlier this week, the CEO announced plans to expand the airline in 2017 by opening bases throughout the Balkans, including Sarajevo, Pristina, Skopje and Tirana and purchasing four to six aircraft.

86 comments:

  1. Whatever they do they should not sell to a financial institution.

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    1. That's true. On the other side that's the only way he will keep his job .That's why he prefers financial institutions

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    2. That's true. On the other side that's the only way he will keep his job .That's why he prefers financial institutions

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  2. Well I miss one scenario that he sure must have forgot to say .And that is he is on his way out in 2016 so 2017 has nothing to do with him.That means finally Croatia Airlines can get back business and stop with he's friendship Politics

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    1. What makes you think another 'friend' of the regime will not be appointed?

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  3. Pa neka prvo barem povezu Zagreb s cijelom EU, pa neka tek onda otvaraju base po Balkanu ako vec toliko to zele. Zar nije jeftinije da otvore te liniju Zagreb-Tirana (koja bi sigurno bila isplativa jer masa ljudi leti do Tirane iz Ljubljane) i pojacaju linije iz Sarajeva i Skopja, otvore nove linije i pojacaju neke postojece linije iz Zagreba i da vise imaju transfer putnika iz spomenutih gradova. Mislim zalosno je ako ce zapustiti Zagreb, koji ce za malo manje od godinu dana imati nov aerodrom , a strane kompanije budu totalno izbacili OU iz ZLZ.

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    1. +1 za Tiranu.

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    2. Naravno slažem se u potpunosti da bi razvoj ZAG trebao biti prioritet. No, nije isto tako bi baziranje aviona u SJJ i SKP moglo stvoriti sinergijsku vrijednost koja bi bila ogromna prednost. Evo vam samo dva primjera:

      SJJ-ZAG-ARN-ZAG-SJJ
      * znači to nije samo let SJJ-ZAG-SJJ u valovima CTN-a i ZAG-ARN-ZAG za CTN, to je i SJJ-ARN-SJJ sa 1stop.
      * break even na ovom letu sa CRJ-900 bi bio 30 putnika na legu SJJ-ZAG-SJJ, 25 putnika SJJ-ARN-SJJ i 35 putnika ZAG-ARN-ZAG (to je daleko manje putnika za break even nego u slučaju dva zasebna leta)

      SJJ-ZAG-SJJ-FRA-SJJ-CDG-SJJ-ZAG-SJJ
      * uz to moguće su i konekcija preko SJJ iz ZAG za potencijalne letove za CPH, ARN, HEL, GOT, FCO

      Tome treba dodati i činjenicu:
      * najavljenih investicije vlada Makedonije i BIH u kompaniju
      * subvencije koje su redovna praksa u Makedoniji i BIH
      * niže aerodromske takse, jer bi Croatia tada osim letova iz ZAG, SPU, DBV, PUY i ZAD još imala dodatne letove iz SJJ i SKP, a više letova znači i manje aerodromske takse po letu, te niže cijene roba i usluga koje se koriste u inozemstvu, kao i u SJJ i SKP.
      * uz ove gornje opcije bilo bi realno i povečavanje broja frekvencija iz ZAG za SJJ na 21 tjedno i za SKP na 14 tjedno
      * code-share Star Alliance parnera na te letove (TK, LH, OS, LX, SN, SK), ali i druge mogućnosti koje već koristi OU (AF npr. za CDG, KL za AMS)

      Naravno baza u TIA i PRN su čista glupost bez ikakve osnove.

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    3. I think its really contradictory that OU wants to open 4 bases outside of Croatia. More than once have they tried to ban JU from flying ZAG-BEG because JU was on top of O&D offering connections via BEG (at least on different flights). Now the conversation here is that OU should fly pax (presuming on the same flight) from SJJ via ZAG to ARN.

      The idea however interesting could mean more expenses. How has JP benefited from the same idea other than a higher fleet utilization? What does Croatia gain from having their national airline base ac outside of its borders? Will OU have to recruit foreign workers for the new bases (ie Macedonians, Bosnians)? Many Bosnians have Croatian passports, do they get priority? Would they be subject to Bosnian regulations or Croatian?

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    4. As EU company Croatia can fly to any destination in EU from SJJ and SKP even now. They can even have 100% in air company in BiH and Macedonia what nonEU company can not (Air Serbia, Etihad, Turkish...) Those are benefits to be member of EU.

      4 bases out of Croatia is not real, and for sure is just personal PR of CEO trying to stay on his position with "huge" plans.

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    5. I also think 4 bases out of Croatia is unreal as well. It shows that OU isn't seeing ZAG as a hub for its operations.

      ZAG could offer a lot to OU. A fantastic new terminal is almost complete which will greatly improve its operations. Long haul ops are going strong. It should be OU that is looking at stretching its wings out of Europe and not JU, as Croatia has a bigger demand for it.

      OU hubbing ZAG would strengthen its regional presence even further. OU still offers more flights in the ex-YU region regardless of JU's large expansion. OU could do a lot more sticking with ZAG and properly hubbing its operations there.

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    6. Da hoce te 4 baze jer su skoro pa oterani iz sopstvene zemlje od silnih LCC i leagacy kompanija to znamo dobro a to nije nikakav plan da se uspori rast ASL .
      ASL nece cekati kao sto vi mislite .
      INN-NS

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    7. OU needs to get more planes, and to get more planes, as is, OU can barely support current services out of Split, Dubrovnik, Zadar and Pula in summer months, Zagreb always suffered as a result in summer months.

      Adding two more F100s for 2016 summer season might alleviate fleet shortage, however in 2017 as things stand OU will need to wet lease at least 4 additional aircraft to cover summer months.

      2018 OU will need to have new CS100s in service, at least four. A319s and old A320s won't be sold before 2025 cause there's little chance OU can replace them in time with adequate aircraft and will have finances to buy new aircraft before 2025.

      Ideally OU should make a deal with Bombardier for 10 CS100 with lease to own deal, with 4 purchased outright and 6 used as options, than replace A319s and 320s in 2023 with CS100s.


      This would give OU an fleet of 4 A320 Neo, 10 CS100, 6 Q400. If OU does go for New York and Toronto flights as planned by current management around 2020-23, perhaps purchase of two A321LR Neo is a smart thing to do.

      OU should be able to sustain 22-25 strong fleet and if successful and profitable sell 75% steak to Lufthansa around 2027/8 in exchange for support and preservation of the fleet and airline in a long run.







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    8. INN, ajd se dogovori, jel 64% udjela u ZAG, 46% u SPU i 23% u DBV (easyJet kao idući ima tek 11% udjela) pretjeran udio (što govoriš dok braniš 52% udjela JU u BEG) ili je to zapravo loš udio pošt su ih "ostali otjerali".

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    9. Ne moze se racunati isto 52% u BEG sa 64 % u ZAG .
      Da SPU i DBV zbog cele godine ali steta je sto im leti odvuku LCC putnike.
      INN-NS

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  4. Jatovanje all over.

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    1. TIA i PRN je jatovanja. U ostalom iskreno ne vidim ni trunku jatovanja. Nažalost ne vidim potencijala u sadašnjoj upravi da to provede, ali to je realno i to je dobar plan.

      Bojim se da je "jatovanje" više stvar vašeg straha od konačno jednog pametnog poteza CTN-a.

      U svakom slučaju uvjeravanje da je ovo jatovanje je ista zabluda kao i uvjeravanje Kučak i ostalih ljudi u hrvatskom zrakoplovstvu da je priča sa Etihadom i Jatom bilo jatovanje. Iako sam ih upozoravao da je to vrlo realna opasnost koja će ozbiljno naštetiti Croatiji, naš CEO je kao papiga ponavljao da nema ni malo opasnosti. Kada je konačno shvatio da su se sve moje prognoze sa Air Serbijom ostvarile (pa čak i dva dnevna leta za ZAG što su svi 2013. sa podsmjehom odbacivali), da to nije bilo jatovanje, bilo je puno prekasno. A bilo je odgovora na Air Serbiju. Sada je sve to daleko teže nakon što su izgubljene tri godine nepotrebno i nepovratno.

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    2. Naravno da nije jatovanje, moze biti samo Ceteenovanje. Kapiram da su se u ASL uneredili od straha od ove izjave ;)

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    3. Purger,

      "Nekoliko scenarija" tipično je jatovanje. Da nečega stvarno ima čitali bismo o jednom scenariju a ne o bezbrojnim mogučnostima iz snova koje stavljaju Kučka na slatke muke koju od njih da odabere. Čak ni Jat nikada nije tvrdio kako istovremeno pregovara sa Etihadom i Aeroflotom te razmatra prodaju hedge fundu kao i sveopču regionalnu ekspanziju u roku od 7-8 mjeseci. Da su takvo što rekli, na ovom bismo ih blogu i danas ismijavali zbog toga.

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    4. Pa nisu se ni u Croatiji uneredili 2013. iako su trebali. Iako sam im govorio da trebaju. Pa vidi što se desilo?

      Zabijanje glave u pjesak je vrlo opasna metoda prolongiranja problema, koja problem samo čini još gorim nakon kratkog proteka vremena.

      Ako se dio ovih planova ostvari (6 regionalanih zrakoplova, baze u SJJ i SKP, dolazak A320neo), Air Serbija bi hitno morala intenzivirati pregovore oko preuzimanja Montenegra, otvoriti baze u TGD, SJJ i SKP. U protivnom odnos snaga, koji je sada debelo na strani Air Serbije, će se izmjeniti.

      Ne kažem da će Air Serbija propasti, ili da će joj egzistencija biti dovedena u pitanje, daleko od toga, ali da bi joj Croatia mogla usporiti rast i pomrsiti račune, o da, naravno da bi. Poglavito što će ovako nešto naići na vrlo plodno tlo kod Turkisha i Lufthanse koji su krenuli u opaku borbu protiv Etihada (Adrija i suportiranje baza od strane Lufthanse je najbolji primjer).

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    5. Neznam zašto bi to bilo jatovanje?

      Činjenica je da Hrvatska (ne Croatia) pregovara i sa Turkishem, i sa Lufthansom i sa investicijskim fondovima. To vam mogu pouzdano reči da je tako. I iskreno to je svakako bolje nego kada imaš unaprijed pripremljenog "strateškog partnera" jer onda se radi ili o mitu ili o političkim interesima. A ni jedno od toga dugoročno za kompaniju i državu nikako nije dobro. Jatovanje bi bilo ako bi se sve nudilo samo jednome!!!!

      Konačno više zainteresiranih parnera uvijek donosi benefit na kraju! Pregovarači su tada bitno mekši u pregovaranjima.

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    6. Jatovanje was also when our politicians confirmed to have had talks with airlines interested in buying Jat but never did (aka Air Asia). Thank god for us that saga is over.

      Purger, as you have said in the past, OU has a huge advantage in the ex-YU region over JU. Just the Croatian market is large, and OU has a fantastic presence in Croatia over the winter months.

      JU has been present in DBV and SPU for a few years now, PUY even more, and has yet to make one of these cities all year. SJJ is still daily, BNX this summer on random timings. SKP should all year be double daily year round but isnt. VAR has seen no change since starting other than going from year round to seasonal, and from daily to 4 p/w.

      OU seems to be further down the road to its regional fleet expansion/change compared to JU. A big downside to JU is that lack of regional aircraft, as well as the ATR being problematic for their ops. Sure the ATR is a great aircraft, but when you have SJJ on weight restrictions because of the ATR capacity, makes you wonder how PRG is doing.

      JU is hoping JFK will help boost its regional expansion, but I don't think that will happen until they have a clear plan for the ATR fleet and a serious expansion of a regional fleet.

      OU isnt as weak as we think it is, nor is JU that serious of a threat as of yet.

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    7. That is why I said "ne smije se zabijati glava u pjesak", and Air Serbia should react immediately, not to wait few years like Croatia did, and to give competition advantage.

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  5. I guess we will see how things work out for Adria and whather the same scenario can be applied to Croatia Airlines.

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    1. It isn't working out that great. Passenger numbers have been decimated over the past 2 months (I'm talking about LJU, TIA, PRN ops - not Tallinn)

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    2. Decimated? A bit overly dramatic, no? Number of JP rotations in TIA is only marginally down from last summer and in terms of seat capacity, it's probably the same. And even the closing of CDG and BRU was more due to Adria rather than the mkt. Transavia brought TIA-ORY forward from July to April as soon as JP closed CDG.

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  6. I just can't get him. Always very, very, very confused. No strategy at all, always a couple of different scenarios. Odlučno možda.

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  7. I'm dispointed in the whole Croatia Airlines prioritization process. First of all I was hoping it would be much quicker, that there would be more interest because the airline certainly has potential. I think Garuda which was really keen to buy it would have been an excellent solution because it is based far away from Croatia and would not turn the airline into a feeder. Instead, Garuda would probably have fed Croatia Airlines traffic.

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    1. Agree 100%. OU has very strong prospects. It just needs cash and a good management team.

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  8. Future means Eurowingslike model with fewer aircraft mainly based outside of Croatia.

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  9. Sorry for the OT:

    Yesterday a person was continually posting how his "preliminary figures" were showing that Belgrade Airport performed badly in May. Anyway BEG has posted growth. Not huge but a bit over 2%.

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  10. Time to stop playing around and replace this management, they have waisted enough time .let the professionals in and do the business and that is saving Croatia Airlines.

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  11. First and most important they must replace the actual Management. Then lets get to business. Croatia Airlines has waisted enough time with Management. Let the professionals do their job.And only then maybe Croatia Airlines can be saved

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    1. Ko da ih zameni kada im se nova vlada raspada?

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  12. With new management OU should urgently:

    1. Bring at least 6 CRJ 900

    2. Open routes from ZAG to DUB, ARN, HEL, OSL, MAD, DUS, FCO (nonstop), ATH (nonstop), DME, OTP, SOF, TIA, OMO, TGD, and more flights to SJJ, SKP, PRN.

    3. Open base in SJJ with one CRJ900 (routes to FRA, MUC, CPH, ARN, GOT, HEL, CDG, AMS, BRU, FCO, DME)

    4. Open base in SKP with one CRJ900 (routes to MUC, FRA, CPH, CDG, AMS, BRU, ATH, DME)

    5. Code-share on more Star Alliance and other partners.

    6. Bring one Star Alliance partner for one route to USA (United, Lufthansa, SAS, LOT, Singapore), Air Canada to Toronto, and one to Far East (Singapore, Air China, ANA) with connection to those flights via ZAG to SKP, SJJ, PRN, TIA, TGD, OMO, SOF, OTP, SPU, DBV, ZAD, PUY, OSI, BWK

    7. Code-share with Montenegro (if it is not too late and Etihad/Air Serbia is in deal)

    8. Sell 4 oldest A319/A320, leave two the best A319/320 to base them in SPU and DBV during summer for charter flights what would make 6 A320 in fleet (4 A320neo and 2 A319/320).

    9. Lease two A320 to Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, Malaysia or Singapore during winter and lease two A320 from same company during summer.

    10. Organize real waves, use niche market (migration ZAG-Adriatic, national holidays, tourist project, vouchers for frequent flyer to coast...)

    Possibilities are not like 3 years ago, but still are on!

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    1. Nice plan. One comment though - they won't be able to do SJJ/SKP-DME nor any other non-EU destinations without a domestic (Bosnian or Macedonian) AOC.

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    2. @anon 11:26
      Agree with you, but there is also one more thing to keep in mind: I'm not sure if CRJ 900 range is sufficient for SJJ/SKP-DME

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    3. I start from presumption that they should open company in BiH and Macedonia, not just to base aircraft there. As Macedonia and BiH are interested to invest and to support those companies one should open it in pattern: 60% Croatia : 40% local government), to have control but in same time to use those benefits.

      If you base aircraft in SJJ/SKP you don't have to use just that plane for some routes. You can fly:

      ZAG-DME-SJJ-DME-ZAG with A319 for example.

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    4. Hi Purger, hope u do well. Question, your destinations u mentioned, guess some wld be just seasonal or do u see yearround traffic to HEL OSL ATH? Pozdrav fm ZRH

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    5. It is nice to see that CTN has plans on growth but there is one more player who prevented the growth of CTN. I include the government/Zagreb airport, for the extremely slow growth. Zagreb's terminal is small and outdated. The gov't of the passed, airport management and CTN should have worked together from the start. In that way I feel Zagreb would have been a true hub and CTN would have been in better shape today than what it really is. Teamwork was missing.Just the way I see it.

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    6. BEGLAX

      I present total different system of flights and waves for CTN summer and winter time-table. But here I don't have possibility to present that elaborate of some 200 pages.

      In short my plan from 2010:
      Summer: 4 waves (2 feeding waves to LSZ-PUY, BWK-ZAD, SPU, DBV, OSI, SJJ, SKP, PRN, TGD, OMO, TZL, and 2 waves to Europe).

      06:00-07:30 1st wave (from feeding hubs)
      08:00-13:00 2nd wave
      13:30-16:30 3rd wave
      17:00-22:00 4th wave
      22:30-00:00 1st wave (to feeding hubs)

      Winter:
      2 waves (one to feeding routes and one to Europe), with planes leaving ZAG at 15.30-16:00 and stays in feeding airport till morning next day

      extra flights to FRA, MUC, VIE, ZRH, LHR, CDG, BRU, AMS and IST in 3rd wave (some of those by code-share partners: TK, KL, AF, SN, LX, OS, LH), and just connections to SPU, DBV and SJJ in evening.

      06:00-07:30 1st wave
      08:00-14:30 2nd wave
      15:30-17:00 1st wave
      extra flights: 15:00-20:30
      extra SPU, DBV, SJJ flights: 21:00-22:00

      By that way I should make routes:
      - 4 flights per day all year to FRA, MUC, VIE (more in summer)

      - 2 flights per day all year to BRU, AMS, CDG, LHR, ZRH, IST (more in summer)

      - 1 flight per day to CPH, FCO (+ one via SPU and DBV)

      - minimum of 3 flights per week to BCN, MAD, LIS, DUB, DUS, HEL, ARN, OSL, PRG, MPX, ATH, OTP, SOF, DME all year, and more flights during summer (4-7 per week to those destinations)

      - seasonal flights should be done to Adriatic coast, but ZAG hub should have all year routes with at least 3 weekly frequencies to all destinations + perfect 100% connections to all feeding airports

      With 4 planes difference summer/Winter (leasing to/from company in south hemisphere) + planes in feeding airports (you can use them for ad hoc charters there for sport, pilgrims, tourists...) you can make winter without any minus (without profit, but for sure without minus)

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    7. Purger,
      Uz apsolutno postovanje, za vecinu od navedenih stvari se zakasnilo i steta je bezpovratno nacinjena. Stranci, a narocito LCC ce preuzeti primat u MZLZ, SPU, DBK,Podgorici i Skoplju, dok LH grupa nece dozvoliti ozbiljno sirenje u Sarajevu. MGX svakako odlazi u istoriju. Verovatno odlazi cela Airbus flota, koju ce sa malo srece zameniti 4-6 CRJ900 (sa malo srece dokupice se jos nekoliko Q400). Sve u svemu malo je realnih razloga za optimizam jer veliki uvek jedu male, a i propustene sanse uvek mnogo kostaju.

      Pozdrav,

      ATCO

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    8. I would sign off your system. Sounds good. Would love that schedule and yep, southern hemmisphere is the point to consider. And Croatia has good connections there, for example Chile, where Croats are highly regarded. And Chile has with LA also A319, 320 fleet
      Thanks Purger. Look fwd to fly OU this October

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    9. Anonymous 3:14
      Apsolutno se slažem da je sad prekasno. To sam predlagao 2010. Kad se nakon desetaka sati sasanaka najvišeg managementa CTN-a isto nije prihvatilo stavio sam na CAF avar "The end". Sada je to neizvedivo, osim ako ne dođe neka ozbiljna kompanija koja bi to financirala i podržala.

      BEGLAX:
      You fly OU? To ZAG? If so, you are my guest for lunch!!!

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    10. Purger, in your best-case OU scenario would you think of BEG as part of network, Q400 could do the rotation feeding towards west?

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    11. Purger: flying ZRH-ZAG-SPU-FRA-ZRH
      not sure low long in ZAG, probably just 1h ot 1.5h
      but next year for the new terminal opening i ll be visiting ZAG. Than lets hve lunch together ;-)

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    12. Anonymous:
      No, not in this moment. JU is too strong, nothing good would come from fight like that. OU has more than enough destinations where they have no competition at all. I should open Serbian market as soon as possible but that would be INI not BEG. With BEG I should be stand by.

      BEGLAX:
      OK, sure. I am happy to make lunch with you.

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    13. Purgeru,

      Slazem se za BEG, za tako nesto je potreban ozbiljan novac za dumping kojim bi se privukli putnici znatno nizim cenama od konkurencije. To bi tesko odobrili i mentori iz LH grupe koji na ovim prostorima favorizuju LH, LX, OS, JP i tek na kraju OU. Konacno za tako nesto je potrebna znatno ozbiljnija flota za koju opet nema novca.

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    14. Apsolutno. CTN nije u situaciji sukobljavati se sa ikim. Jer tako bi samo nepotrebno trošila resurse. Smatram da nije trebala uči niti u skub sa ČSA, koliko god ova bila slaba.

      U sukobe nema ni potrebe ići jer ima previše linija koje nisu pokrivene i gdje nema konkurencije. Stoga bih pokrio prvo niche, pa linije bez konkurencije, pa rizičnije linije bez konkurencije, a tek onda bih se pohrvao sa konkurencijom. I da, tu bi Air Serbija bila broj jedan. No, u ovom momentu ni u ludilu.

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    15. HI all, sorry for joining the conversation late.

      Personally I think OU needs to set a target of handling at least half of the total pax flow in and out of Croatia. This should be a company goal which they should proudly strive to achieve. A goal of this type would also be a good motivator for the work force. This means today they would be handling some 4 million passengers. This obviously requires a fleet double that of today and larger, not smaller aircraft like the A321 to service Split and Dubrovnik in the summer months. So what to do during the winter slower period??

      I thought, and probably posted the idea before about having a partner in the southern hemisphere or Asia who would in tern require a larger fleet during the southern summer thus switching the fleet between the two during their respective summers. Alternatively, I think OU should take full advantage of being in the EU and have a charter arm based in a secondary airport in England, France or Germany where they would sell packages to European winter holiday destinations such as Tenerife, the Middle East and North Africa for example.

      Thought?

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    16. Edit:
      (I thought, and probably posted the idea before about having a partner in the southern hemisphere or Asia who would in tern require a larger fleet during the southern summer thus switching the fleet between the two during their respective summers.)

      I should have added here, similarly as mentioned by Purger above.

      Delete
  13. OT : ASL is downgrading Brussels route from daily to five weekly flights.

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    1. 6 x p/w starting June 11 (ex Saturday)

      5 x p/w starting June 28 (ex Tuesdays and Saturdays).

      From winter schedule 5 x p/w (ex Saturday and Sunday)

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    2. Why on earth?????

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    3. Croatia Airlines from Zagreb is flying that routes 16 times per week. That makes Air Serbia noncompetitive on BRU connections.

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    4. Actually it is very competitive. Most passengers on BRU flights are transfers continuing to Athens, Beirut, Thessaloniki and Abu Dhabi. Serbia is not in the EU, there is little business travel. Over the past few years passengers from the US also used to fly via BRU to Belgrade. There is no need for that anymore with direct flight from BEG and Jet Airways moving its base.

      Finally, Croatia Airlines usually flies to BRU with a Dash 8 turboprop.

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    5. That since Croatia is now a proud contributor to the Brussels bureaucracy. Plenty of useless characters requiring daily ferrying to and fro your capital city of Brussels.

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    6. For air companies it is absolutely unimportant who are passengers and why they fly if they pay for ticket.

      On that route Croatia flies with Q400 (that is one of most stupid thinks they do), but some of those flights are also with F100 jets. Brussels fly that routes with A319 in code-share with OU. So, 8 out of 16 flights are with jets, and 8 with Q400.

      Delete
    7. BRU has not performing well for us, it hasn't for quite some time now. It's better to reduce it and to reallocate the capacity elsewhere, especially on routes where Aviolet was supposed to operate. ;)

      Delete
    8. Logical step since the following have impacted LF on JU flights to BRU:
      1) Terrorist attack in Brussels
      2) Jet Airways ceased its flights from BRU which BEG pax used for both YYZ and NYC flights. On my inbound flight last year with Jet there were 12 pax from YYZ and I would guess a few more from NYC so this def impacted overall LF long term
      3)Serbia is not in EU
      4) I would suppose less tourists to Brussels which would equate to less transfer pax
      5) Minimal diaspora (someone correct me if I am wrong)
      BTW both flights I took with JU to BRU last year were around 90% LF, but that was last year...

      Delete
  14. BEG 416K pax in May. Up 100k from last year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ou shit, thats good. 100k more, wow!!!!

      Delete
    2. It's 10,000 not 100k. Mistake ;)

      Delete
    3. Would be interesting to see who contributed by how much. Unfortunately JU doesn't publish their numbers but I guess around 2.500 of those came from Wizz Air's Baden Baden route?

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    4. 2.4% increase.
      When are we going to know the results from the other ex-yu airports?

      Delete
    5. Dubrovnik is out, 8% increase. Zagreb and Split usually publish their figures during the second week of the month.

      Delete
  15. OT
    I heard told by a friend who works at the Paris Charles de Gaulle airport that Pristina will have an air link with paris . Anyone has information?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Those guys that run this airline, don't know what finally they realy want to do! This to me shows that they are unprofessional and unable,well it's time to go home and retire.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Sve je to odlicno ali baze se otvaraju zbog prevelike konkurenicije unutar sopstvene drzave za sta su sami krivi i ovo nije nikakav napad na ASL kao sto mnogi pricaju.
    INN-NS

    ReplyDelete
  18. OT: Dubrovnik airport in May

    2015 198168
    2016 213321

    ReplyDelete
  19. OT: Turkish Airlines Airbus 330F TC-JDR on the way to Tuzla Int. Airport!
    https://www.flightradar24.com/THY6739/9e6662b

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hi guys can someone please explain to me about this a321neo LR that many says for transatlantic routes of croatia airlines. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Is n't this type range up to 4000 nautical miles? Because I think direct flight distance zagreb to New York is about 4270 nm, unless there is a stopover let's say in island. Thank you in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  21. The distance between ZAG and JFK is approximately 3738nm. And between ZAG and YYZ is 3829nm.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So if a321neo LR range is up to 4000 nautical miles, is it safe to have this 200 nm margin in fuel?

      Delete
    2. @ Anonymous June 2, 2016 at 8:42 PM
      Yes!

      Delete
    3. The 4000 nautical miles range does not include any cargo.

      Delete
    4. Narrow body intercontinental flights could be a game changer for the big boys, especially in Europe - if everyone can have a 150-seater to USA (or anywhere else), why transfer in FRA, CDG, AMS, LHR?

      Delete
    5. @AnonymousJune 2, 2016 at 9:32 PM

      Includes fully laden A321 Neo, 169 in economy and 16 in the first class with 40 inch pitch. Airbus is saying in this configuration fully laden A321LR Neo has range of 4100nm or 7600km. Zagreb to New York is 7000km, well 6920km. So plenty of room for A321LR Neo. Also flight can be done via London as stop over, Zagreb - London - New York, London is 5500km from New York.

      Croatian has two daily slots at Heathrow Airport, morning slot can be used for New York flight, first class would always be sold out with most likely number of economy seats reduced down to 150 seats and first increased to 24 seats.

      Delete
    6. Very close and I'm not too sure if this figure includes the required reserve fuel and it also does not take into account meteorological conditions such as head winds which will be more prevalent in one of the directions.... probably heading to the USA due to the North Atlantic jet-stream, if my memory serves me correctly. So it will be difficult to make Zagreb NY work because there is a good chance a extra fuel stop will be required on most of the flights because of the headwinds.

      Also, will the A321neo be ETOPs approved? This could be another issue.

      Delete
    7. @Q400June 3, 2016 at 7:16 AM

      Yeah i think A321 LR Neo is fine, B757 is, A321LR Neo has longer range, Stop over in London would be most prudent imho from a financial stand point, first class tickets alone could finance the flight to New York and London needs first class tickets all the time especially to New York, Toronto, Los Angeles, Washington and Chicago.

      I'd say if OU can get two A321 LR Neos, they're set if they go through London, first class alone would sell like hot cakes and this would also free two aircraft and 8 weekly aircraft slots on A320 currently used on London route.

      From a financial stand point New York via London is best seller, ok stop over in London for aircraft to pick up passengers isn't a big deal, 1 hour or 90 min longer flight won't really make a difference in scheme of things.

      But from financial stand point OU could make a killing. First class tickets can be sold for $1500-1750 (3000-3500 return) (way bellow UK rates of $2500-3200 OW) and still pay for entire flight to New York with the 24 first class tickets alone.

      150 Economy Seats at $750-800 or $1500 return would be a pure profit for the Airline, that's $112000 per flight or around $20 million per year x 2, $40 million.

      OK we should add lease deal which ain't cheap at $12 million per year, but even then $16 million of pure profit isn't bad.

      OU might as well purchase after that two more A321LR Neo for flights to Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle, where large Croatian communities live. Los Angelso area is home to 100 000 Croats, Bay area to another 70 000, California is home to 200 000 Croats.

      Seattle home to 50 000 Croats, Chicago another big city and home to ~150 000 Croats, Cleveland, Pittsburgh all have massive Croatian diaspora living there, Pittsburgh metro is home to 170 000 Croatians.

      interesting destinations for long term to consider. OU should be aiming for 5 million pax by 2027/8, 3.0 million by 2020. imho


      Delete
    8. How about flights to Asia?? There are a lot of touirsts from Korea/Japan all year round.They can do route ZAG-DXB-ICN.

      Delete
  22. OT: today was pilot training @ Pula with the brand new Swiss 777-300 HB-JND.
    These were the first flights after delivery two days ago.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes, Pula is used by the Lufthansa group for training, a fir bit, they use Pula and Zadar.

      Delete

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