Thursday, September 29, 2016

EX-YU airlines gear up for fleet renewal


The three largest national carriers from the former Yugoslavia are expected to make important decisions over the coming months concerning their fleets. Both Air Serbia and Croatia Airlines plan to add regional aircraft, while Adria continues to show its commitment to Bombardier.

Air Serbia's Chairman, Siniša Mali, has said the airline is looking to develop its regional fleet in the coming year in a bid to strengthen its network. The carrier, which currently operates six ageing 66-seat ATR 72 planes, is yet to decide on whether it will maintain its regional operations with turboprop or jet-engine aircraft in the future. "Our strategy is to start flying double daily to a number of cities and to get new regional planes. We will see whether they will be turboprops or jet-engine aircraft. With these, we can cover points in the region", Mr Mali said recently. Last year, Air Serbia's CEO, Dane Kondić, noted that such a decision will depend on a range of factors such as pricing and other terms and conditions. However, leasing aircraft, rather than ordering them from the manufacturer, could be a simpler solution due to the longer time required to deliver new-built aircraft. Russian plane manufacturer Sukhoi and the Japanese Mitsubishi have both approached Air Serbia in regards to its future regional fleet operations. A decision on the make-up of its regional fleet is expected next year ahead of the arrival of ten ordered Airbus A320neos from the second half of 2018 through to 2020. "The new fleet of A320neo aircraft are a key part of our strategy with which we intend to redefine our position on the market, with the most modern and comfortable single-aisle aircraft. As we expand our destination network throughout Europe, we will set new standards with the A320neo both in comfort and quality of service", Mr Kondić said recently.


Croatia Airlines is expected to make a decision concerning the acquisition of 100-seat aircraft within a month. The airline plans to expand its fleet next year, as well as add an additional four Airbus A320neo jets in 2021. Two 100-seat jets are expected to enter the fleet next year with both Bombardier and Embraer models being considered. Ultimately, the carrier aims to add between four to six aircraft of the type. In 2018 Croatia Airlines will also have to decide whether it will extend a financial lease agreement of its six Dash 8 turboprops or opt for another aircraft type altogether. The former is believed to be the more likely option. The Mitsubishi Regional Jet, which has the capacity to seat between seventy and ninety passengers, is seen as a possible alternative for the Dash 8s, with the plane manufacturer itself confirming that Croatia Airlines is one of its core customer targets in Europe. "Croatia Airlines is intensively considering all options for redesigning its fleet, primarily regarding the introduction of 100-seat aircraft, which will enable the company to bridge the capacity difference of the currently used Airbus A319/320 and Dash 8-Q400 aircraft", the carrier said. It added, "Accordingly, the company's Management Board has initiated negotiations with all global producers of 100-seat aircraft, including the Canadian company Bombardier Aerospace, the producer of six Dash 8s which are already a part of Croatia Airlines' fleet".


Adria Airways’ new owners have said the airline's fleet will be expanded this year with “several Bombardier jets”. In January Adria added a second Bombardier CRJ700, which was followed with the lease of a CRJ900ER in April. The carrier is believed to be arranging the addition of another jet to its fleet in the coming months. Despite Adria's plans to retire its aging CRJ200 aircraft during the first quarter of the year, it is now expected to remain with the carrier until further notice. Over the next few years, the Slovenian airline will have to renegotiate aircraft leasing terms for its existing fleet. Next year, the lease for one of its CRJ700 jets will expire, while leasing arrangements for six CRJ900s, which make up the bulk of Adria's fleet, will end in 2018, 2020 and 2022. Leases for three Airbus A319s run until 2021 and 2024. Adria boasts the youngest fleet out of any national carrier in the former Yugoslavia with its average age amounting to nine years.

100 comments:

  1. Six ageing Atrs? I thought ALV and ALT are in an ok shape.

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    1. They are all in OK shape but the ones you mentioned are 10 and 18 years old!

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    2. ALN, ALO and ALP have all seen better days...

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  2. C series would be great addition for all three airlines.

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  3. Pretty much over the next 5 years we will probably see a complete change in Croatia Airlines’ fleet. CRJ 900s will replace A319s, A320neos replace the A320s and my guess is the Q400s will stay part of the fleet.

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    1. I think the A319s are here to stay.

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    2. Croatia Airlines won't be ordering CRJ 900s, like ever.

      CS100 is basically a done deal, there have been negotiating with Bombardier in keeping Q400 and getting up to six CS100s, the Q400s are very efficient and very profitable aircraft for OU.

      CS100 deal is taking shape, there are only financials that need to be agreed on, what price and lease terms.

      CS100s are around $62 million brand new. OU would like to get this bit down, by about 20% and get a 10 yer lease.

      All other alternatives are totally unworkable. OU can maintain two manufacturer types, 3 is too much even for larger airliners.

      Mitsubishi was just one of the options in the past, as was E195, however in terms of fuel efficiency CS100 beats them all, longer range, more pax and about same amount of fuel.

      Sure CS100 is slightly more expensive but on orders of 6+ aircraft deals can be made.


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  4. Adria will get another CRJ700 instead of CRJ200. The plane is already undergoing maintenance in LJU and will be in Star Alliance colors.

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  5. It´s strange that neither JU nor OU are interested in Embraer´s. Very reliable and efficient a/c and already used by so many European airlines e.g. LH, OS, AF, LO, FB and so on. Excellent safe record and maintenance.
    But yeah, MRJ for OU should be a super cool option.
    C-series is sometimes criticised as being a "flying can" but won´t believe it until I try myself.
    A320 neo is a good option for JU but would be trickier to fill in the winter season.

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    1. Also interested to know why Embraer has never been of interest to either of the,m. I remember that Embraer did pitch its plane to Jat Airways in 2004 or so. They even operated a promotional Belgrade - Tivat flights.

      Those planes seem to have been doing well for Montenegro Airlines.

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    2. FB have a lot of problems with their Embraer fleet.

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  6. By the way, I just noticed that in June and July Transavia will operate two weekly flights to BEG. Third one returns in September. Looks like a lack of a/c during the busy summer period.

    Prices in August are already quite high, on some days they are close to or well over €100.

    So much for cheap flights to NL. lol

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    1. If you look it up, in that same period Air Serbia charges up to €400 for a return flight to Amsterdam.

      lol.

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    2. Somebody making a conclusion based on August prices.. priceless.

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    3. Service reduction already?? Interesting that with the rest of the destinations it´s not the same. Doubt it´s fleet shortage but rather giving priority to more important summer destinations e.g. Spain, Italy.

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    4. And if JU charged 100 euro as well he would be the first to laugh at their "desperate dumping of prices that will be covered from the pocket of poor Serbian taxpayers".

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    5. Anon 09.47

      The thing is not so much about prices but the reduction of flights during the buesiest months in the year.

      Y'all hatin' and all but you haven't written anything concrete.

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    6. Neither have you dear :) Dropping freqs in peak season is standard practice in some places, easyJet comes to mind for instance. Freqs get swapped to higher yielding seasonal services unless it's top priority to keep the product intact.

      It's also the original message tone that draws the kneejerk reactions. Tone it down and you might get a reasonable debate, should it be sufficiently intriguing. Cheers.

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    7. They did not reduce it, it was like that from the first day, they just did not put the 3rd weekly flight on sale during july/august.

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    8. Lets see if this route survives.

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  7. MRJ would be a good plane for Air Serbia. Unfortunately it does not fit into their plan to get regional aircraft in relatively quickly which probably means getting second hand planes instead for speedy delivery.

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  8. A lot of people do not like flying with turboprops be it ATR or Dash 8s. A good example of that is Montenegro-Serbia market. Many people choose to fly Montenegro Airlines simply because they will fly either Embraer of Fokker.

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    1. Completely agree, even though they are actually considered safer then jet engine planes.

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    2. ATR´s are one of the best regional a/c. They have been the working horse of JU and RO for instance during the last 2 decades. Respect!

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    3. Ja se plasim Fokera, ne znam samo odakle Montenegru i Austrianu delovi za te avione?

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    4. I agree. They are a great plane. Perhaps JU could consider the new ATR72-600 with high density cabins.

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    5. sorry my last comment referred to
      Anonymous @ 9:21 AM

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    6. ATR would be the most rational choice for Air Serbia. They have been flying them for 26 years without too much issues.

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    7. If i had to fly to MNE I would be genuinely afraid to fly on YM given their horrendous financial state.

      As for the Atr, it's a great aircraft for flights up to 90 minutes. JU might carry less passengers to MNE but they surely make more money which is all that matters in the end.

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    8. In Europe, besides YM and OS FK jets also operate with KLM, Denim, Carpetair and Tradeair. I find them quiet and comfortable, especially compared to CRJ and small ERJ.

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    9. Why would you want to swap Dash or ATR for 70-90 seater jets? That's most stupidest move I ever heard! Comparable jets of that size use up to 30% more fuel than props hence they are much less economical and are associated with higher maintenance costs.

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    10. Yes, but with fuel not exceedingly expensive - which is the case now - jets can close that gap. You can also use the jets on longer routes, and thus would not need to lease the plane from Slovenia to start flying to Hamburg, etc.

      In my opinion, they should keep the ATR, and add a 80-100 seater to the fleet, too.

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  9. Adria will definitely have an all Bombardier fleet in a few years time. Cost of operating A319/320s is higher and there is too much capacity for an airline of Adria’s size.

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  10. Air Serbia (possible future)
    ----------

    fleet:

    6 Mitsubishi with 90 seats
    10 A320neo with 180 seats
    4 Boeing 787 with 270 seats


    long haul (per week):

    tokio 2x
    peking 2x
    shanghai 2x
    hongkong 2x
    bangkok 2x
    singapur 2x

    new york 5x
    chicago 3x
    torronto 2x

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    1. Nah, they´d better stick to the lovely ATR72 for regional and to add more 330´s to the long-haul.

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    2. why 787 when they have 320? logical choice is 330/350

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    3. Not so sure about Tokyo and Singapore, with even Shanghai pushing it, and the frequencies seem low.

      Don't see a diversification required for the long-haul fleet. It will stay Airbus.

      JU should not overlook the African market.

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    4. Nice but expensive to operate long haul dest with just 2 weekly flights
      Do BKK HKG PVG or PEK 5-7 weekly, increase JFK to 6 or 7 and do YYZ and ORD 4-5 weekly
      SIN not sure. Ex ZRH we hve over 800 seats a day but I know a lot of it is Business travel. So not sure how well it wld do ex BEG
      NRT would be nice but probably too early. Let the other destinations work first

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    5. With long haul in Asia, stick to PEK. Bangkok can easily be handled via AUH and is traditionally a low yielding market.

      I would also consider ICN over NRT.

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    6. future ASL fleet
      7 ATR
      7 SSJ 100
      4 A319 NEO
      6 A320 NEO
      1 B787-8
      2 B787-9
      long haul per week
      NY X5
      ORD X3
      YYZ X2
      PEK X3
      PVG X2

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    7. That is real:
      - SSJ should be extremely cheap as no one want to buy them out of ex SSSR

      - only 787-9 should not be option, but 787-8 3x or A330 3x

      NY must be 7x!!!!
      YYZ 2x not enough, ider 3x or nothing

      But I do agree with concept.

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    8. Because I'm dreaming of......

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    9. Kanada uopste nema dovoljno za letenje tamo osim u sezoni, Jedan grad y Africi verovatno Adis Abeba nikako Najrobi i verovatno Seul pored Kine nikako Japan. Uz Kazahstan i Teheran sasvim dovoljno.

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    10. For longhaul JU should stick to only JFK, ORD, YYZ, and PEK. Other destinations don't have enough O/D passengers to be successful plus many such as Tokyo and Los Angeles are way too far for an A330 to go there, turn around, and be back in 24 hours as is the case with JFK.

      I think a reasonable goal should be to launch those four destinations by 2020, so one destination per year.

      With a fleet of four A330-200s, this is what could be done:
      JFK 5x weekly (but with better slots)
      YYZ 5x weekly
      PEK 5x weekly
      ORD 4x weekly (it is about 300-400nm further than the other destinations so five weekly flights I think would be too risky)

      This is 19 weekly flights. If they arrange the flights correctly, they could maybe even hold that schedule if one plane has to stay on the ground.

      If things go very well, maybe add a fifth plane to increase frequency during the summer (such as JFK going daily) and during the winter they can use that plane for flights to the Caribbean or Thailand or other popular winter sun destinations. Serbia has access to many summer sea destinations but not much choice when it comes to popular places in the winter. There are a small number of people who can afford such stuff and if it is correctly marketed a I think it could be a success.

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    11. Cincerning Air Serbia.
      Toronto and Chicago are at the same route, and will probably be serviced 3 times per week. Other destinations are not realistic in the mid-term calculations.

      There's no reason to swap ATRs for any other than new generation ATR 72-600. Even leased ATR 72-500 will do the job perfectly. Mitsubishi MRJ90 or Embraer would be a great addition to the fleet, as there are not too many customers announced yet for the former, and thus ASL vould negotiate a better price for 4 or 6 MRJs.
      Aircraft for a Long-haul can be only Airbus A330 or A350, but another A330-200 will enable faster profit until ASL can consider byuing a new one, and A330 neo would make more sense looking at it now.

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    12. Concerning Air Serbia.
      Toronto and Chicago are at the same route, and will probably be serviced 3 times per week. Other destinations are not realistic in the mid-term calculations.

      There's no reason to swap ATRs for any other than new generation ATR 72-600. Even leased ATR 72-500 will do the job perfectly. Mitsubishi MRJ90 or Embraer would be a great addition to the fleet, as there are not too many customers announced yet for the former, and thus ASL would negotiate a better price for 4 or 6 MRJs.
      Aircraft for a Long-haul can be only Airbus A330 or A350, but another A330-200 will enable faster profit until ASL can consider byuing a new one, and A330 neo would make more sense looking at it now.

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  11. OT: Very interesting developments going on today at OS. There is a big press conference at 10:30 in Vienna. Expected to announce +5 A320, +1 777, new premium Eco on long haul fleet and Seychelles as new destination, ...

    First real expansion finally after many years.

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    1. Indeed. They should consider flights to Central Asia: TSE, TBS secondary cities in CEE: CLJ, DEB, INI/UZC, TLL, etc

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    2. 5 A320 come from AB-LH deal.

      Haplek

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    3. Mene samo interesuje kako LH misli sve te ekspanizije da finansira. Ocigledno su se odlucili da poubijaju ostatak konkurencije u Evropi sa Eurowingsom i ostalim ekspanzijama u koje su krenuli!

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  12. I am really happy if Croatia Airlines gets some new planes next year but I’m fearing we will get a repeat of this year and that was an old Fokker for the summer.

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  13. Ex YU pise gluposti Adria nece preziveti iducu godinu.

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  14. While Adria was operating their CRJ on behalf of JU this summer (maybe still is) Air Serbia who were flying on board as JU guest ambassadors got asked if they liked the plane, overall working conditions and if they would like to work on a plane like this.

    I don't know the reason, please don't kill the messenger :)

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    Replies
    1. Air Serbia crew* typo

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    2. Forget whether the aircraft fits into the route structure, operating costs, reliability, etc. Better to ask the crew how they feel on board :)

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    3. And you know they haven't done prior analysis? They asked them for the fun of it...

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    4. I traveled on the Hamburg route with Adria's CRJ and the noise was so loud I changed seats tree times. On the other hand when I flew from Vienna with JU's ATR it was a much more enjoyable flight.

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    5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    6. Are you sure? I've flown Boeings, Airbuses, ATRs, Fokkers and CRJ is very, very quiet.

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  15. Does Air Serbia plan to use the A320neos to replace the current A319/A320s?

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    1. They could transfer some of the A319s to Aviolet and finally end B737-300 ops.

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    2. When do they plan to retire those B737s anyway?

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    3. Neki od aviona ce biti povuceni iz flote, dok ce neki sigurno biti zadrzani kao prosirenje flote.

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    4. B737 is old but gold. I don´t see why they get rid of them if they are used on short and temporarily charter routes.
      The 737-200 is still super good!

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    5. actually, excellent for moskito treatment

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  16. ASL ne treba da se resi ATR nego samo da se zamene sa novijim Avionima ma da ni to nije lako slabo ih je na trzistu a preleazak na ATR 72-600 bi potrajo zbog dodatnih obuka.
    INN-NS

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    1. I zato bi nadam se ovako trebala flota da izgleda :
      6 do 8 ATR 72-500 ili ATR 72-600 .
      6 A319 zadrzati i 2 prebaciti u Aviolet samo sa Ekonomskom klasom.
      10 A320 Neo .
      1 do 2 A321 Neo
      2 do 3 A332
      I nadam se da ce se poruciti 4 A359.
      A za ovakvu flotu ima dosta potencijala posto se ne leti za neka velika trzista.
      INN-NS

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    2. za ATR se slazem..7 bi bilo sasvim dovoljno uz 7 regionalnih od 90- 100 mesta, predlazem SSJ 100.Sto se tice A359 preveliki su za ASL u ovom trenutku..mozda za 10-15 godina dok se razradi posao

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  17. I personally love EMB 190 and I think they are perfect to change ATR/DASH on many short routes including those that don´t need A319/320.

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  18. AIRSERBIA: do they have the money to buy or lease now anything? I don't think so! CROATIA AIRLINES: whatever Mr kucko says , probably the opposite will happen. Most likely the 100 seater will be an old AVRO-RJ-100 ! ADRIA AIRWAYS: lost case!

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  19. BTW, will there be no successor to MAT?
    http://mat.com.mk/ domain is still there!
    MK needs a national carrier too I think.

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  20. One question... will ASL keep its A319s and two A320s that they have now when the 10 A320Neos come? The point is to keep them right?

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  21. By 2020, I can see Air Serbia's fleet like this:
    10-17 smaller planes for the region (ATRs, Mitsubishi, Sukhoi or Embraers);
    15 planes with capacity of about 130-170 passengers for big European cities and Abu Dhabi, Tehran, Tel Aviv, Beirut, Cairo, Astana and so on;
    5-6 wide-bodies for flights to JFK (7 pw), ORD (5pw), YYZ (3-5pw), PEK (7pw), INC or NRT (3-4pw) and maybe some African cities and South-American cities. I believe that Sao Paolo, Rio De Janeiro, Addis Ababa, Nairobi, Cape Town or Johanesburg could maybe work with reasonable prices and good marketing.

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    Replies
    1. Maybe in a parallel universe , certainly not this one!

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    2. @5:41
      Why the arrogance?

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    3. Please get real, they don't have the money not now not ever for this kind of expansion, unless whatever ANONYMOUS 6:03 PM is going to happen, only by themselves are not capable for this

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    4. @6:10, why does it bother you so much how does someone here see Air Serbia's future? Or could it be that you just don't want it to happen? If EY ordered 10 planes for JU with an estimated value of about $1 000 000 000, why wouldn't it invest more? EY is obviously here to stay. So much of arrogance and pessimism in your attitude...

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    5. So much expansion in 4 years is way too optimistic, but this will all depend on JU´s generated revenue and if EY will spend more money in investing or maybe send more Jet Airways or Air Berlin wide-bodies to BEG.

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    6. Air Serbia/Etihad will have to decide what kind of airline Air Serbia will be in the future before ordering aircraft. Are they going to continue to be boutique regional airline that ignores LCC competition? Or do they plan on transitioning into Norwegian-type of airline with both long haul and regional/Euro low cost model? If they decide on the current model they may fade away within a decade.

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    7. Boutique airlines no longer work so well in Europe. Nowadays, most people prefer to pay less, if they can and not expect so much pampering on shorter flights. The typical tourist would pay 100€ for a RT, use hand baggage only and eat McDonalds menu at the airport before their trip to save money. Even AF/BA/KL have applied this model on their shorter flights.

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  22. My opinion By year 2025 :

    Atr 72-600 ×10

    A319 ×10

    A320Neo x 10

    A321Neo x 2

    A332 x 4

    A333Neo x 2

    Long Haul -JFK daily - YYZ daily - ORD daily - PEK daily - LAX 3PW - charters to the caribbian like Cuba ana Mexico and Thailand 2pw (switching destinations everyweek)


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    1. Too optimistic man, even if JU triples their transfer pax numbers

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  23. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  24. Whatever ANONYMOUS 5:41 PM wrote goes for you too........uunless daddies from ABU DHABI put the hard cash on the table for them.

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    1. I agree totally with you. If Abu Dhabi doesn´t pay, JU will stop existing.

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    2. Where can I get more info and find proof for your claim?

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    3. ANONYMOUS 7:13 pm who do you think paid for the 10 a320neo? Need more proof than that?

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    4. Facts are well known. Serbia made deposit to Airbus during Milosevic days, google it up if you are not familiar. That deposit was built into the NEO deal and Airbus confirmed it. NEO payment schedule starts on delivery, which is likely to be Q1 2019. Accounting will differ, but essentially it will be similar to current payment for Airbus fleet lease, so if Air Serbia can pay for lease, they will be able to pay for NEOs.

      Now I need your proof for your 6:59 statement.

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    5. Easy peasy:
      On 1 August 2013, Jat Airways and Etihad Airways entered into an agreement of strategic partnership. Under the agreement, Etihad acquired a 49% stake in Jat Airways and management rights for a period of five years.
      Practically speaking, EY owns almost half of JU which is not a low percentage as you can imagine. The current look and feel is definitely not inspired by the old JAT.

      Proof 2: On 23 June 2016, Air Serbia begun operating non-stop flights between Belgrade and New York using an Airbus A330-200 leased from another Etihad partner, Jet Airways.-----
      Which CEE country´s airline can, today, afford to lease a wide-body aircraft and slots in JFK except LOT? Not even the Greeks.
      So, please just respect others´ opinions and stick to reality.
      Without EY "miracle" JU would probably been still operating their 20 year old B733 and AT72 with the 3 circled logo.

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    6. Anon at 7.53pm ... current JU lease costs would be 3 to 4 times less than would be equivalent sale and leaseback deal with NEO's .... no idea where you got the notion that it would be the same.

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    7. EU would not allow Etihad to walk in and pay the bills. EY covering all of JU expenses is a work of fiction.

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    8. Where did you get the notion it would be sale and leaseback deal?

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    9. There is no other way for JU to finance a deal of this magnitude. It will be in the order of somewhere between USD500-600M. i don;t even understand why they are entering into such a deal - this could break them

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    10. And EY wouldn't exist without petrodollars so there we go.

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  25. JU will need to cover all the Balkan capitals at least twice daily or code share to connect to JFK and future Beijing.
    OU need to open bases in SKP and TIA and to launch routes to OTP/SOF/KBP/TBS/DEB/CLJ.
    JP need to either find a big partner such as EK or to focus on destinations not covered by VCE/ZAG or BUD e.g. Teheran, Marrakech, Gerona, etc.

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    1. Greetings from Croatia.

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  26. I have been reading some of the comments on what new aircraft the airlines should get, but there are also other issues that need to be taken into consideration.

    First, as new terminals are being upgraded or built, more jet ways (bridges) will be provided and connect directly to the aircraft. Buses are a thing of the past. They will never go away, but I am pretty sure that passengers won't miss it. Some of the aircraft mentioned have air stairs built into the airplane's entry door. Unless a ramp is used, these bridges can't be used. Buses will still be needed.

    Second, turbo props are efficient aircraft, but they are also high maintenance aircraft.
    Also, a lot of passengers don't like turbo props. These days they want a jet. The aircraft manufacturers know this. Look at the aircraft they are producing. Twin engine planes with the engines on the wings. The Q's, CRJ's, ATR's, etc. have fallen out of favor with the traveling public.

    Third, the airlines always have to deal with the same old problems that they have been dealing with for decades. Summer and winter passenger traffic. Global economic conditions. Conflicts in the world. Distances they fly.

    Airlines today have to choose aircraft that fit their needs (markets) and that is not easy. They get it right, they make money and everyone is happy. They get it wrong, they lose money or even worse, go out of business.

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