Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Etihad to 'review European investments'


Etihad Airways is reviewing its strategy of investing in European airlines and is seeking an exit in a shake-up that could lead to the departure of group CEO James Hogan, company and industry sources told the Reuters news agency. Etihad saw a strategy to take equity stakes in carriers like Air Serbia, Air Berlin and Alitalia as a way to expand its European network but losses have mounted with Air Berlin and Alitalia failing to turn a profit. On the other hand, Air Serbia, in which Etihad holds a 49% stake, has posted two successive years of profit (2014 and 2015). Etihad announced on Sunday it was cutting jobs, with local rival Emirates following a day later in reviewing its workforce as overcapacity and a stronger dollar squeeze earnings.

Mr Hogan's expected departure could come within the next three months according to the German daily "Handelsblatt", which cited several sources as saying Etihad wanted to start unwinding its European investments in January. "It is our long-standing policy never to comment on rumour or speculation", Etihad said in a statement. Last week, the UAE carrier finalised a deal for Air Berlin, in which it owns a 29% stake, to lease 38 crewed planes to Lufthansa. It is also buying Air Berlin's Niki unit and placing it into a new leisure airline joint venture with tour operator TUI. The measures will halve Air Berlin's fleet, leaving it with just 75 planes focused on long haul flying from Berlin and Dusseldorf. Alitalia is considering job cuts and grounding planes, and Italian media have previously suggested that Lufthansa could become an investor in the struggling carrier, something that both have denied.

Etihad ownership stakes in other carriers (click to enlarge)

Etihad and the Serbian government signed a five-year investment and management agreement in 2013 for Air Serbia. In an interview to the "N1" network this July, Mr Hogan indicated that Etihad's involvement in the Serbian carrier would continue past the initial five-year deal. "Air Serbia today is an integral part of our group. We entered this partnership for the long-term, we are not here for the short-term. But what is important is that we grow the business in a measured way. We want this business to be successful in the long-term, we want this business to continue its network coverage, we want to improve the depth of the network", Mr Hogan said at the time. Air Serbia handled over 2.55 million passengers so far this year, it's best since rebranding from Jat Airways three years ago. Furthermore, it recently announced plans for a step-change in business in 2017. Last week, at the Southeast Europe Aviation Summit, Mr Hogan said, "We are totally committed to the future of Air Serbia. While on the one hand there are some challenges, on the other there are huge opportunities". According to the head of the Etihad Aviation Group, the company is currently in talks to open a call centre in Serbia to service its European partners. Etihad is also reviewing MRO (Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul) opportunities in Serbia as well.

175 comments:

  1. I don't think this will have an impact on their investment in Air Serbia because A) it is the only one that has had any sort of success since it was taken over B) it was political and not a financial investment

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    1. Ti si pravi političar :) a ne AS

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    2. ? You think they invested in Jat because they saw huge potential? I doubt it. They invested there because they were ordered to invest there and that's the reason I don't think they will be de-investing from it any time soon.

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    3. They were succesful of receiving big subsidies from Serbia something that they couldn't get from Iraly and Germany for their airlines.

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    4. Ako ti smatraš da je nekoliko miliona dolara za emirate velika stvar onda nema šta da ovde pričamo. JAT je napravio veće gubitke nego šta je država uložila u AS. Te pare koje je i dala za formiranje AS su ostale u Srbiji i omogućile su zapošljavanje velikog broja mladih ljudi. Da političari su to koji treba da pregovaraju o osnivanju nacionalne aviokompanije i svakako oni treba da nađu te pare da bi se uopšte pokrenuo tako jedan veliki projekat. Tebi izgleda sve smeta šta je pozitivno i kreće se u dobrom smeru.

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    5. Nekoliko milijuna nije problem, no oni su potrošili puno puta po nekoliko milijuna i stavili firmu u egzistencijalne probleme. Sad je svakih par milijuna bitno. Kad se ima nije, kad se nema i te kako je.

      Konačno ako je glavni gazda odlučio da se miče iz Europskih akvizicija onda će to napraviti brzo, efikasno i sa cijelog tržišta. ASL će tu biti kolateralna žrtva.

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    6. ^ Ljudi koji misle da se milionski poslovi vode kao lokalna piljara... Niko se ne povlači iz profitabilnog posla bez preke potrebe. I taj glavni gazda ima nekog mozga, nije se probudio jutros i rešio da napusti čitavo tržište.

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  2. All good things have to come to an end. Fairy tale seems to be over soon.

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  3. Thank god SERBIA is not in the EU yet,concering the aviation part.

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    1. Yes, better to stay isolated from everybody, make your own rules and think you are the best.

      Really worked well with Yugoslavia...

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    2. I also think that being in EU is the major disadvantage for medium and small national legacy carriers.

      The rules favor big companies. If LH, AF, KL run into a major trouble, the rules will change, because their governments will intervene. We saw what happened with Swiss Air and Austrian and how Swiss gov (which plays by EU rules) and Austrian governments readily intervened, took over losses and invested hundreds of millions to sweet the deal for LH.

      EU is based on the economic theory from the 1980s and the 1990s, that private is always better than state-owned. This may be true in many cases, but as we can see with Turkish, it is not an universal truth.

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    3. TK is most probably the worst example in recent history to state your opinion.
      TK had to dismiss employees just because they didn't conform to the regime's political perpsectives and the entire company is currently facing severe financial troubles. So it would have been essentially better for them if they weren't dependend on the government's political interests.

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    4. I may also say that it is the worst dismissal of an argument you don't agree with in history. If we are already talking about history, according to your logic we should dismiss Egyptian, Greek or Roman civilizations because of bad decisions taken at the end that destroyed them?

      When there is stability, open and friendly foreign policy, rule of law and a government that puts economic interests first, a state-owned company can prosper quite fine. These are conditions that exist in most EU states.

      Similar conditions existed in Turkey until few years ago and Turkish prospered.

      Turkish is a proof that state-owned company is not necessarily worse than private owned.

      EU fails to recognize it for purely ideological reasons, to the detriment of EU medium and small national carriers.

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    5. If you think that the fact that governments can just put millions of EUR into state-owned airlines, is a positive for aviation, then I think you are mistaken.

      The goal should be that national carriers are self-sustaining (not neccesarily with huge profits), rather than just to be there for the pride of some politicans/citizens/countries, whatever the cost.

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    6. They cannot be self-sustaining if 4-5 Great Whites are ready to eat each and every one of them. Government support is the only response to that.

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    7. I just think that state ownership can be successful.

      I think that the current EU basic assumption that private ownership is ALWAYS better is just not true.

      States should be allowed to own and invest under the same conditions as private entities.

      Under the current rules, if you are not big enough and your government is not rich and influential enough in Brussels, your national carrier will meet sooner or later the destiny of Malev.

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    8. please re-instate my comment. I wrote one word in capitals. It is not spam.

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    9. @Anonymous at 3:02 PM

      "States should be allowed to own and invest under the same conditions as private entities."

      Država služi da zakonski reguliše tržište i da omogući svim učesnicima fer i ravnopravne uslove za tržišnu utakmicu.

      Nije u redu da država svojim propisima reguliše tržište i da se pojavljuje kao igrač u tržišnoj utakmici. U tom slučaju nisu svi učesnici ravnopravni. Zamisli u fudbalu da je sudija koji sudi utakmicu istovremeno vlasnik domaćeg tima. :)

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    10. Nije to loša priča za velike lige, kakva je SAD. U ligama kakva je EU, gde su pravila pisana da zaštite velike nacionalne kompanije, pravila su takva da država može da drži fudbalski klub i da se takmiči, ali ne sme nikako da kupuje igrače.

      A sudija nije država, već EU, koja propisuje i kontroliše pravila.

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    11. To sve naravno važi kada si mala ili srednja država i/ili siromašan.

      Međutim...

      Ako se ikada dođe u situaciju da LH ili AF dođu u škripac, neće promptno ići u bankrot kao u SAD, već će pravno-ekonomska gimanstika naći način da ih pošto-poto održi na tržištu. Videli smo to već sa Austrianom, Brussel, Swissair. Preuzmeš dugove, napuniš kompaniju kešom poreskih obveznika, pa je onda pokloniš Lufthanzi. Slobodno tržište, nema šta!

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    12. Ima i slučajeva kada je država sudija, npr. Nemačka, koja može da priušti da ignoriše Brisel.

      Da li to što nije formalni vlasnik nešto pomaže?
      Pa ne baš.
      Vlasnici LH su velikim delom paradržavni fondovi. Kada država čini sve da podrži Lufthansu kroz razvoj hubova i druge infrastrukture, a drzi na ledu BER vec deceniju, šta je onda to?

      Kasno shvatiš da to što si AB doveo do ivice provalije, neće LH mnogo pomoći pošto si samo stvori rupu u koju promptno uleću Ryan i Easy. Osnivaš navrat-nanos Eurowings da tu rupu nekako začepiš, ali shvataš da to ne pomaže mnogo.
      E onda daješ veštačko disanje AB, preuzimaš njihovu flotu... V
      Veliko je pitanje da li će ti to pomoći.

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    13. Nažalost tako izgleda EU tržišna utakmica.

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    14. Ne razumem ovaj deo oko BER? Pa to je uzasan blam i rupa u budzetu sto se ne otvara. Niko nije lud da ga ne otvara zarad neke trzisne taktike.
      Bas mi je zao sto se pisu zakve besmislice.

      Vise o tom fejlu na ovom linku
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-07-23/how-berlin-s-futuristic-airport-became-a-6-billion-embarrassment

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    15. True that the EU competition rules are based on a liberal theory, but it does not favour private over state ownership, as a matter of fact EU law is neutral as to ownership model. State aid rules require that if there is a state intervention, it must at terms that would have been acceptable for a rational investor, creditor etc. - so called market economy operator principle. To this end, EU has developed guidelines for State aid which is acceptable to airlines and airports. So no, it is not absolute prohibition of State aid. But yes, the principe one time last time does apply so you cannot spend taxpayers money to subsidise failing businesses to the detriment of other competitors in the market.

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  4. As I said months ago, Alitalia will be their biggest mistake. But let's say they leave JU which I highly doubt. The airline is in a much better position to get sold again now then it was 3 years ago during Jat era.

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    1. Is it?

      1. Operation and lot of departments are in Abu Dhabi. It is not easy to start with those in Belgrade again.

      2. 10 A320neo has to be paid. Huge amount of money. Who will pay for this?

      3. A330 cost huge amount of money and JFK route burns millions. They can not just cancel that deal (there are contracts, obligations, provisions...)

      4. There are two credits that were taken as part of Etihad Group to be paid also.

      5. If Etihad pull out, Serbia must pay 60 million loan (out of 100 million, 40 was investment and 60 loan). Even if Etihad decide that with no reason, and stop contract before deadline Serbia must pay this immediately.

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    2. You make it look like you made and/or signed that contract? Give me a break, please.

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    3. interesting. someone with the knowledge of the situation and with proper analysis is dismissed since he knows too much. very high level communication we got going on here (btw i am not the author of the post that was dissed)

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    4. Everyone can read contract. It is huge read, but if you have time, you can see it by yourself. If you did not you should not discuss about it.

      There is also question of leased 11 planes (conditions, amount). In case of Etihad pull out this stays, contracts for leasing are fixed. So, are you sure Air Serbia will be capable to run company with 21 planes, pay leasing for 11 planes (A330 including), pay 2 credits, pay back 60 million Etihad loan?

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    5. If EY leaves JU, Serbian government can get Hogan to run Air Serbia :P

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    6. @10:53 AM
      hahaa, good one

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    7. You say JU was dim witted enough to relocate departments to AUH??

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    8. It wasn't JU's decision to make.

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    9. očigledno čovek govori o sredstvima koje je etihad uzimao sa tržišta novca i od kojih je deo završio u er srbiji,a ne o ulaganjima predviđenim transakcionim ugovorom

      "two credits that were taken as part of Etihad Group to be paid also"

      http://www.reuters.com/article/etihad-bonds-idUSL5N11M1IQ20150916

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    10. Ovaj momak šta daje kao neke konkretne cifre je stvarno smešan. Po njemu izgleda da AS je veliki gubitnik i da sve to pokriva Etihad . Nemam reči za ove izmisljotine

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    11. Hot Lane
      If you cant handle the truth refrain from commenting and embarrassing yourself.

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    12. Ne ne pokriva to Etihad, upravo suprotno. Pokriva Srbija, građani Srbije. A Etihad muze.

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  5. No good reason for Etihad to divest from Air Serbia.

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    1. Air Serbia is one of the best bets they msde.

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    2. Huge subsidies from the taxpayers. What's not to like?

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    3. Not really, most of taxpayers money went to cover old Jat debt. You are new here or just playing dumb?

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    4. LOL at 3:00PM
      The Serbian government has been putting money into Air Serbia until this year.
      It also assumed responsibility for all the debts of JAT.

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    5. LOL @3:23 Most of the money they have been putting into Air Serbia since 2013 was for JAT debts.

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    6. Old debts + workers to leave 300 million (and then they bring several times more workers, so it was not about making business more efficient with less workers but to clean from those who are "not on route").

      But after that they invest 157 million.

      So Etihad 40 million investment + 60 million loan
      Serbia 157 million investment and subventions.

      It is not true that any money after 2013 was debts. Just subventions and investments. Not a cent in debts.

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    7. Really, after more than three years you still try to spin those same lies and numbers, and of all places on this site where it has been repeatedly proven, year after year, to haters like you that those numbers were not true? You are beyond repair, you don't need the truth, just to be left alone and ignored.

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    8. You are joking right?

      Debts were put on Serbia in August 2013 and in end of 2013 (they find some more). 300 million.

      But after that Serbia invest and subvent 157 million. In every decision they insist that those are not old debts but investment. Just they did not explain why they invest 57 million more. And why Etihad did not invest all 100 million, but 60 million out of that was credit to be paid back after Etihad pull out.

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  6. While I don't think they will leave JU this is important news, because it probably means they will be investing much less in any of their subsidiaries. So no money will be given for lease of new planes, service improvements etc.

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    1. Sure, Air Serbia is their top priority. Not Alitalia, not Air Berlin, not Jet, not Darwin, but Air Serbia.

      Luckily you are real.

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  7. Just a reminder, things like this have happened before: http://www.economist.com/node/705265

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  8. I don't get it to be honest. They are planning to deinvest yet they are creating another airline with TUI in Europe. Where is the logic?

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  9. Etihad divesting in either Alitalia or Air Berlin would bring both bad and good news to ASL.

    Between AUH and FCO, MXP, DUS, and TXL there are about 2 a330s each day. Some of that traffic would be redirected through BEG.

    But ASL cooperates closely with both Alitalia and Air Berlin through codeshares, maintenance, training, etc. This might stop.

    Only time will tell if this will be good or bad for ASL.

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    1. On that topic, notice that Air Serbia recently started inhouse pilot training for the A330 and A320 which were previously done with Alitalia and Air Berlin. Could be a good indicator...

      http://www.exyuaviation.com/2016/12/air-serbia-boosts-in-house-training.html

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    2. Given the uncertain situation at both AB and AZ, JU should be looking at rebuilding its strong ties with AF and KL. Transavia launching BEG flights is definitely not a good sign for JU.

      Anyway, the ongoing crisis in EY shows that you can't buy success with petrodollars.

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    3. On the other hand you can damn well buy success with European bureaucrats who will tailor the legislation to fit your interests.

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    4. Alitalia's and Air Berlin's failure is not the fault of European bureaucrats. It is the fault of years of gross mismanagement.

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    5. Anon 13.30

      Unfortunately it's not only European Union bureaucrats that can be bought. ;)

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    6. Alitalia problems are due to its 51% non-Etihad stockholders. Etihad has inherited, not created bad situation.
      It is a bureaucratic creation, particularly 49/51% rule introduced to insulate LH, BA, KL and AF from non-European competition.

      When Etihad attempts to invest, the majority owners refuse to follow, and EU bureaucrats declare that Etihad is not allowed to increase its ownership above 49%. Then they blame Etihad for not turning the company around! Go figure out!

      If I were Etihad, I would just leave Alitalia and all the mess to Italian government.
      Italy is a major EU economy, equal to UK, but it is a second rate political power. It allows to be pushed around by others.

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    7. You forget that if there was no 51/49 rule, EY could just put couple of aircraft in Serbia, Italy and Germany and compete with all the companies instead of buying 49% stake in them, much easier.

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    8. In Alitalia they had 49% formal ownership just as in Air Serbia, but they have 100% control of management and governing the company. They absolutely control Alitalia as they control Air Serbia.

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    9. and yeas it is their fault, they don't have a clue how to make those bankrupt companies to profitability.

      Lot of talks but no results.

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    10. What a total nonsense. They can not have 100% of control of management because EU commission would intervene immediately and kick Etihad out of Alitalia.
      The 51% rule exists to keep the company under dominant EU control.
      Serbia is not a part of EU, but it still had to prove that actual decisions for ASL were taken in Belgrade, with the dominant role of the Serbian government.

      Your reasoning is colored by the very unfortunate Balkan philosophy "da susedu crkne krava". You wish to blame Etihad for the failure, because you wish same to happen to Air Serbia.

      I would like nothing better then to see Air Serbia, Croatia Airlines, Adria Airways and Montenegro to succeed and to beat the non-ex-yu competition. To me it proves that people from this part of Europe are not less worthy or less smart or less successful than Germans, French or Turks.

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  10. Is that Belgrade Airport in the first image?

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  11. such a bad timing.

    first year that airserbia started paying taxes to BEG combined with losses from JFK route will amount to tens of millions euro losses. it will look awful in that review of investments etihad is mentioning when hogan is out.

    then there are also matters of upcoming 2018 neo deliveries to be paid god knows from where and also 3 decades old boeings and atrs need some replacement and that will add to the cost of renting newer aircrafts.

    also, the management contract is running out in 2018.

    definitely not a good news and a grim prognosis for airserbia

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    1. Sto je babi milo, to joj se i snilo.
      :D

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    2. Utter catastrophe! You forgot to mention tbat it's gonna be the ear where even sky might fall on JU's head. Dread, despair and decline everywhere!

      Ha ha ha. Trolling, you gotta love it.

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  12. Negativno poslovanje Er Berlina i Alitalie povlaci sumnju u opstanak Etihad grupe. Ocigledno je da obe pomenute kompanije imaju veci broj zaposljenih i aviona u floti. Zbog ekonomske moci Lufthanse, Er Berlin i pored velikog ulozenog novca nije u stanju da opravda ulozeno. Alitalia je u slicnoj poziciji. Ali zbog nizih cena usluga od velikih operatera, kao i veceg broja zaposljenih...
    Sto se nase Er Srbije tice, ukoliko nastavi strogo ekonomsko upravljanje i proda jos 25% na berzi, nastavice uspesno opstajati na ovim trzistima gde dominira Lufthansa.
    Za Gospodina Hogana smatram da ima dobre reference da dodje na celo druge najstarije komercijalne avio kompanije na svetu. Australijskog QANTAS AIRWAYS - a. Za samo tri godine, svetski priznata a u Australiji kao ikona postovana avio kompanija, slavi sto godina od svojeg formiranja na prostorima Kvinslenda.
    Sa privatizacijom, ekonomicnoscu i efikasnoscu cvrsta je vera u uspeh baze komercijalne avijacije Srbije. Er Srbije, Aerodroma Nikole Tesle i Aerodroma Srbije na prvom mestu!.
    Srecna dolazeca Nova 2017 Godina, i proslava Bozica ljudima koji ga slave po novom kalendaru.
    Pa i meni mirni letovi izmedju Beograda i Sidneju, koji se penju na sedamdeset sesti put.
    Rodney izmedju Kralkeva i Sidneja. +

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    1. Uvaženi gospodine Marinković, jel ćete biti tako ljubazni da mi objasnite sledeće:

      "Zbog ekonomske moci Lufthanse, Er Berlin i pored velikog ulozenog novca nije u stanju da opravda ulozeno. Alitalia je u slicnoj poziciji"

      Air Berlin ima Lufthansa kao močan konkurent na istom tržištu. A koje je to isto za Alitaliju?

      Delete
    2. Postovani Anon 5:16 PM.
      Glavni konkurent za Alitaliu jest njihova tradicionalna inkompetencija.
      Preveliki broj zaposljenih u odnosu na broj sedista, Konkurencija nisko budzetnih avio kompanija. Rekonsilidacija Italjanskog avio prevoznika nije bila delotvornija zbog velikog otpora predstavnika zaposljenih u pregovorima sa Etihadom. I pored investicije od vise stotina miliona evra, nisu bili dovoljno delotvorni.
      Meni je ocigledno da u vecem delu juzne Evrope odnos prema ekonomskom uspehu uglavno je okacen o "levi lakat"...
      Oprostite na nacin ojajsnjenja...
      Svako vam dobro.
      Rodney & Son.
      Kraljevo +.

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    3. A to Etihad nije znao kada je ušao u Alitaliju? Tada nije bilo velike konkurencije LCC, prije Etihada nije se štrajkalo u Alitaliji?

      Etihad je vrlo jednostavno ušao u nešto za što nije bio dovoljno sposoban. Prevelik zalogaj. Majušna kompanijica sa 120 aviona mislila je da može kontrolirati kompanije koje su imale preko 600 aviona.

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    4. Vi ste upuceni u okolnosti za razliku od mene. Ljudi kojima odgovornosti nisu na prvom mestu, jeste bankrot. Prodaja onome ko ima novca. Kada i to ne uspi, treci lek je novac od poreza drzave kompanije... Ipak devet avio kompanija nije kupilo Etihad. Ni ceo ni parcijalno
      Ali Etihad njih jeste... To jeste razlika. Sa druge strane velicina ne garantuje opstanak. Ne uvek. I dinosaurusi su bili krupni... Ponekada se gubi novac na ponekoj investiciji. Mnogo cesce neodgovorni ljudi propadaju, pa da i novac poreza uz politicare priskoci...
      U svakom slucaju, krila Srbije imaju buducnost, u Boga i ljude se nadam.
      Vama Anon 8:54 PM, ponovo iskreni pozdrav.
      R. Marinkovic
      Kraljevo - Sydney.

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  13. The departure of Mr. Hogan is a confirmed matter within Etihad. The Advisory Board will push for a new CEO as soon as January and EY will begin to divest from all its European bussines adventures (even for a loss!) and focus on a strategic partership with Lufthansa. Greetings from AUH!

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    1. Is it known who will replace Hogan?

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    2. I am not sure that EU Commission will allow EY/LH partnership. It stinks too much of monopoly.
      Also I think LH went to much in suppressing AB competition.
      Subsequent delays in opening BER were an indirect political support to LH. It may sound good, but it is not healthy for German market at all.

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    3. But Hogan was removed from the leadership to a ceremonial position few months ago? These are not fresh news, let alone anything shocking.

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    4. Baumgartner took over Etihad CEO role from Hogan back in May.

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    5. Yupp. But then Hogan was made to be Capo di tutti capi and Baumgartner was left to operationaly manage EY, while Hogan was in charge of the entire group, with all ceos reporting to him

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    6. But that is a ceremonial role. It is a kind of honorable demotion.

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  14. And they just signed a CS with Montenegro Airlines according to Ex-Yu

    http://www.exyuaviation.com/2016/12/etihad-montenegro-airlines-ink-codeshare.html

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  15. BEG-IST today about 90% LF.

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    1. On YU-ALP, to be fair.

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    2. Yes, it was on YU-ALP which had a minor incident on landing in IST, i had no time to go into details.

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  16. Interesting times ahead. I hope Etihad finds a solution that does not affect Air Serbia.

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  17. Rich daddy ran out of money, what do you think the spoiled child is gonna do?

    In my opinion, first thing would be cancelling JFK and returning the loss-generating chunk back immediately, even with a huge compensation. Secondly, network (and fleet) has to be consolidated, i expect this to happen after the summer season. Both operations and fleet could shrink anywhere between 10-30%, followed by job cuts. These can make the company survive 2-3 more years, until 2020 maybe, before it goes bankrupt (and this is not the worst case scenario considering JU does not have administrative units, support units as well as access to finance).

    If the government can manage the process JU can turn to the new Adria, if not it'll share the same end as B&H.

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    Replies
    1. I guess we have a reply to how many unsubstantiated guesses one can put in a paragraph.

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    2. @12.01 it would be like all your Christmases come at once but unfortunately for you it won't go that way.

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    3. Beiging, Chicago and Canada flights are just about the corner!

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    4. Beignets? No, they don't plan to start MSY. PEK will be on Air China or similar, and ORD/YYZ are not far behind. Sorry to rain on your Christmas (25th) parade.

      Delete
  18. OT Two last JU501 JFK-BEG have come to Belgrade 100% full.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. well its Christmas time and holiday season started in the USA. Time to travel. When if not now would the planes be full. We are talking about capacity of 254 seats- a larger 321 ;)

      Delete
    2. theres no larger and will never be larger 321 ;)))

      Delete
  19. & AэrologicDecember 21, 2016 at 11:52 AM
    BEG-IST today about 90% LF.

    LF on today's JU552 BEG-IST is 80%, but ATR is operating instead of A319. Air Serbia cancelled 10 flights JU552/3 in October, 7 flights in November and 4 in December due to low bookings. Moreover, during last three months more than 20 JU552/3 were performed with ATR instead of 319. Despite all implemented measures LF is constantly below 50% on flights to IST.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Have you read the news recently?

      Delete
    2. Any info on TK's loads?

      Delete
    3. If the loads were that bad i'd send the Atr myself, better to have 55 pax on the ATR than on the A319/A320.

      Anon@12:36PM - The flight was supposed to be completely full last night with only one place vacant, at the gate it was 55/66, i hastily translated it into 'around 90%'.

      Delete
    4. @AэrologicDecember 21, 2016 at 9:12 PM

      55/66 is 83%; so it is not around 90%. By the way, there was 50 passengers on board.

      "The flight was supposed to be completely full last night with only one place vacant" - sorry, but not true at all according to Air Serbia. Please don't fabricate things.

      Delete
    5. Will you please shut up? If 83 isn't close to 90% on such a small scale then you'll need to check your basic maths. There were also non-rev pax + technician. Anyway, i don't know what's the point you're trying to make here, the flight had a good load relative to the equipment, there's nothing more to it.

      Delete
    6. But there was 50 not 55 pax, so it is 76%, far away from 90%, isn't it?

      Delete
  20. Ocigledno je da nazalost ima dosta zluradih komentatora kojima je ova vest donela osmeh na lice nadajuci se da je to pocetak kraja srpskog avio prevoznika.
    Kao sto je neko danas vec pomenuo ulazak Etihada u JU je bila politicka odluka i da ironija bude veca ispalo da se ta takva odluka pokazala opravdanijom od drugih "ekonomskih" odluka kao na primer da se kupi 49% u AZ.
    Centrala Etihada je pominjala "evropske investicije" gde se po svojoj velicini ali i po nakupljenom dugu naravno izdvajaju AB i AZ dok se o investicijama u Aziji (Jet Airways i Air Seychelles) uglavnom cuti jer njihov problem nije toliko veliki.
    U ovom slucaju je Air Serbia "na tapetu" samo iz razloga jer je locirana u Evropi a ne zbog njenih losih poslovnih rezultata. Da AZ i AB ostvaruju rezultate kao JU ovakva tema se nikad ne bi ni pominjala.
    Dakle, JU nema razloga da bude napustena od EY pogotovo sto JU moze posluziti kao primer u Evropi da EY investicija itekako moze uspeti ukoliko se njihova pravila striktno postuju.

    ReplyDelete
  21. could LH be hot candidate to buy JU for little money ??

    Strategically OU and JP make more sense feeder-wise because they will have the rights to fly FRA/MUC - BEG/SKP/SJJ/PGD/PRN and so on and on

    ReplyDelete
  22. OT: EW (Eurowings) to start Zadar/Pula/Split and Dubrovnik flight from Munich (MUC) from March 2017.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unfortunately Split is not a MUC destination, only via DTM

      PUY/ZAD 3pw
      DBV 2pw

      Delete
    2. all flights ops by Air Berlin!

      Delete
  23. Those are truly bad news for Air Serbia.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Alitalia about to go bust! (unfortunately only in german)
    http://www.austrianaviation.net/detail/montezemolo-alitalia-in-akuter-konkursgefahr/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Clanak kaze da problem nije do Etihada, koji bi rado ulozio, vec do preostalih vlasnika 51% koji ne zele da prate eventualno Etihadovo ulaganje. Etihadu su vezane ruke prakticno, posto ne sme da predje 49% vlasnistva.

      Delete
    2. Jeste, vezane ruke. To što kontroliše kompaniju 100% nema veze. Važno je što piše na hartiji. Ma de...

      Obečavali čudesa, ostvarili ništa.

      Delete
    3. Ne kontrolišu kompaniju 100%, to je apsolutna izmišljotina. Da to tako može, niko živi ne bi kupovao više od 49% bilo koje kompanije. Tako nešto može da kaže neko ko je zlonameran ili nema veze sa propisima i praksom EU.

      I to sam članak priznaje, mada ni malo nije naklonjen Etihadu.

      Drugo, taman da ima 100% kontrole, a nema, na koju foru može da za dve godine pretvori gigantsku kompaniju koja decenijama stvara gubitke u totalni uspeh?

      Koliko smo čekali da Austrian "proradi" nakon što je uz stotine miliona miraza bez duga poklonjen Lufthanzi? A Swiss?
      Pa kako to za nekoga imamo gomilu strpljenja i beskrajno razumevanje i izgovora, a za drugoga kompletno druge aršine?

      I niko nije obećavao nikakva čudesa, to je još jedna namerna i nepoštena izmišljotina.

      Delete
    4. Pa što je onda Etihad stalno ponavljao da će da okrene te kompanije i učini ih profitabilnim? To su Hoganove izjave, ne moje. A bogami nadavo se on izjava u medijima o super budućnosti Air Berlina, o tome kako će Alitalija da bude 2016. profitabilna...

      A ovo sa 100% kontrole što ne može da bude? A jel? Hrvatska je u EU i tamo se vodi spor već godinama radi MOL-a koji kontroliše INU, a kupio je samo 25% udela.

      Ne treba daleko da se gleda. Air Serbia je najbolji primer. Ne smeju u Beogradu ni oglas da objave da im to ne odobri ured iz Abu Dabija. Više ni osnovne stvari ne odlučuju u Beogradu nego se kompanija vodi iz Abu Dabija. Operacije, marketing, red letenja... sve iz Abu Dabija. 5 glavnih menađera je iz Etihada, na plati Etihada, nisu uposlenici Air Serbije. Pa ako ne uspeju u Air Serbiji i ovde će da kažu da nisu imali nego 49 odsto?

      Delete
    5. Pa ti ih prijavi EU komisiji sa tim podacima. Ako su tacni, nadljali su.
      Mada je Evropska komisija vec uradila istragu i utvrdila da to sto pricas nije tacno.

      Delete
  25. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  26. This news is a BOMSHELL. German media (Spiegel online) reports today that ALL of Etihad european involvment is at stake and that Hogan is likely to leave very soon. It is very unlikely that ASL will be exempted from a global trategy change at Etihad. Now I understand WHY the serbian government looks badly for a concession of BEG airport! Without ASL the airport is almost worthless taking into account the mass of work that needs to be done/invested. I now also understand why Aviolet was etsablished. A former JAT captain told me, that if Etihad divests, the name ASL is gone and so are all aircraft EXCEPT the Aviolet B737-300...... So 2017 a small new national carrier called Aviolet with a couple of B737-300?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Obavezno.Kakva 17 ko ce cekat 10 dana sutra odmah se raspadaju.

      Delete
    2. http://www.fvw.de/

      Alitalia bancruptcy is almost immediate if they cannot scrumble 180 million Euros befored NY!

      Delete
    3. With all respect it seems they are nothing but guessing as nobody at this moment has relaiable information what will happen.
      I have read article in Spiegel online and they are only repeating the news that was published from many other sources. They do also mention Air Serbia (as it is a member of Etihad group), but they do not provide any single argument. They simply follow the logic "it is European air carrier belonging to Etihad group" so the conclusion comes by itself.
      I am not saying it is not the scenario it might happen, but regarding to Air Serbia they are nothing but guessing.

      Delete
    4. Former JAT captain, former JAT CEO as "advisors"... we have seen how wrong some of the "has-beens" statements and interviews were.

      In an unlikely event Etihad does pull out, keep in mind that majority owner of Air Serbia had contingency plans in place for a while in case Etihad doesn't extend the contract. They have been talking about it (Mali for T6 etc), and it looks in line with management succession planning at any global enterprise. Majority owner is commited to keep the lights on at JU one way or another.

      Delete
    5. Keep it real peopleDecember 21, 2016 at 3:36 PM

      @AirCEO
      "Majority owner is commited to keep the lights on at JU one way or another"

      Translation from English into Balkan:

      We will use the peoples mney to contonue funding our prestige political project.

      As it is written a few posts above:
      "If Etihad pulls out, Serbia must pay 60 million loan (out of 100 million, 40 was investment and 60 loan). Even if Etihad decides for whatever reason and stops contract before deadline Serbia must pay this immediately".

      Delete
    6. @Nebojsa: Your expectation is not different than thinking "Dinar will not be affected by FED's rate hike decision, because Serbia's name is not mentioned".

      Delete
    7. @Anonymous 3:38
      Comparision is not the appropriate one.
      Quote from "Spiegel online"
      "Ähnlich schlecht liefen die Beteiligungen an Air Serbia und Alitalia."
      End of quote
      This is the only place where JU was mentioned in negative meaning, but even that sentence is not truthful as EY investment in Air Serbia is not bad at all and surely cannot be compared to AZ.
      Don't forget it is German newspaper and that they are actually celebrating EY losing AB.
      In next couple of days / weeks we shall surely have more details.

      Delete
    8. Etihad is a minority stakeholder in AB, with less than a third stocks.
      I fail to gasp why they are blamed for everything.
      Etihad does everything it can to help. The problem is with other stakeholders and with the German state, which would like to keep AB alive and Etihad from gaining more influence.

      Delete
    9. @Keep it real

      "If Etihad pulls out, Serbia must pay 60 million loan"

      It's unlikely, but if they pull out there are two options: loan payout to EY gets you rebuilt and well run airline, thousands of direct and indirect jobs, healthy revenue (JU is top10 exporter in Serbia), complete freedom to make new deals and alliances, access to increased profits from BEG etc. Option 2: shutdown JU and lose all of the above plus lose all of money invested since 2013 to clear old Jat debt.

      Choice is clear. Bottom line is JU will continue to fly.

      Delete
  27. Svi cemo mi pod Nemacku cizmu opet. Bar sto se tice avijacije.
    Kroz 10 godina, gledacemo Evropu sa 2-3 velika prevoznika, a kada uvru ostali igraci srednje velicine, videcemo kako ce proci Wizz, Ryan i ostali

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A kod Nemaca uvek lepo. Strakjuju dve nedelje, naprave tonu gubitaka, kukaju kako ih ubise low cost carriers, ali na kraju se naprave knjige da prikazuju uspeh i enormne profite.
      E da je Ryanairu toliki politicki uticaj u Berlinu i Briselu, gde bi tek oni bili sa "uspesima".

      Delete
  28. Well, I do not need to guess to know that it's hard times for ASL coming. Etihad is supposed to pull the plug by year end. The new managament is set up for early January. It is clear that the serbian government will not be able to pump such sums into ASL to keep it afloat as per Etihad former strategy. For instance it was just announced that Niki will be stopping flight VIE-AUH. Further I do not think that LH or any other major carrier is interested to take over ASL, taking into account that "dirty deals" in the background that make it look better as they are. Suddenly, I think that OU with a brand new terminal could be much more interesting for LH group as regional hub. JP, YM and ASL face a very grim future. If the the serbian government is lucky, they will find a local "biznismen" to run Aviolet with couple of 737-300 for a while.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep bright future ahead for an airline selling Heathrow slots to pay to repair a couple of engines

      Delete
    2. Brussels Airlines was completely run down when overtaken by LH. Now Brussels Airlines is properly managed and expanding. Important is that LH Group sees potential. I think hat OU with new ZAG terminal and geo(political) position has now good chances!

      Delete
    3. At this stage everything is guessing and especially your claims about "plug pulling".
      Let's not forget it all started with news from Handelsblatt and that they are of course concentrated the mostly on European market due to Lufthansa major presence here.
      It is interesting EY investment to Jet Airways has not been mentioned anywhere despite that company had continious losses in 2013, 2014 and 2015 (years when EY was present in Jet Airways) and turned out to be profitable first time in this year after 8 years of money burning.
      It would be logical EY to withdraw from companies which made huge debts no matter where they are located, but as mentioned above Europe is the most important for Germans as it is LH playground so therefore we have these not very precise news.

      Delete
  29. iznenadjeni, nemojte molim vas !

    ReplyDelete
  30. If Etihad ends its partnership with Air Serbia, you would think that the knowledge and experience gained would continue to benefit the airline. But if politics gets in the way and major changes are made with management than anything could happen.

    I also think Long haul will continue with the support of the current Serbian government.

    Definitely an interesting year ahead for Air Serbia.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Just to make it clear. LH is now partnering Etihad. They even intend to integrate most or even all A330 from Air Berlin. They got the "green light" from german government in order to save AB from going bust in the election year 2017. Ring a bell? LH-EY wide partnership is sealed. This is a change of paradigm. You bet the first thing ASL is gonna drop is JFK! Everybody please understand: politics are driving economics and not the other way round. Merkel has enough problems, she doesn't want thousand of employees and some 500000 passengers of AB stranded in an election year. That's why LH is allowed to "save" AB. ASL is going to be collateral damage. I think OU will be sooner or later intergrated into Eurowings, maybe the remains of JP. YM and ASL heaven knows?! But for sure LH is not giving up on the Balkans.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If it was up to EY, BEG-JFK would have never happened. It was a political decision.

      Delete
    2. I fail to follow your argument how this all would negatively affect Air Serbia.
      Air Serbia is not in EU. It is a different story altogether.

      Delete
  32. I think the time has come for the airlines in the UAE - meaning the Government, to realize that multiple operators in each Emirate is not realistic and to consolidate them into a single, solid flag carrier as is the case in most countries, perhaps with dual hubs at AUH and DXB.

    By uniting Etihad and Emirates and probably swallowing up flydubai, Air Arabia could remain the LCC of the state - it is the only one profitable (flydubai is not) and it can cover those low yielding markets beyond the reach of the legacy Etihad-Emirates product which could be streamlined, more focused, less grandiose and more robust to face the economic challenges that are and will be.

    The dream of shooting the A380 to every village of the globe was doomed from the start IMHO, and replicating Qualiflyer was a disaster in waiting.

    2017 will be a very painful year for Middle East aviation, we will probably see some spectacular failures and disappearance of a number of carriers while consolidation will prevail elsewhere.

    JU and Serbian Govt should be worried that they will likely lose a strategic partner at a very delicate time of the airline's existence and not due to its own fault. I hope that contingency plans are well rehearsed... as for YM, this news could not have come at a worse possible time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. +100 for the Middle Eastern part, the bubble will very soon explode especially with EK. How on Earth will they be able to continuously fill triple 777´s and 380´s?!
      I praise AF/KL for acting very smartly, a very good example of how they adapted their model and created Transavia, same with LH - its divisions were a good idea and well, EW is still struggling but not in a tragic situation.
      Middle Eastern carriers´ days will soon be gone and the planes just abandoned in the desert.

      Delete
    2. AF makes losses. Even with this cheap oil prices. Nothing to praise there.

      Delete
  33. I told you before and kept repeating it so many times, having a boutique European airline is very expensive - those days are gone especially with the fierce competition and LCC.
    EY model had no base, they tried to make Tegel and Fiumicino hubs and Nikola Tesla a regional one. Feed them with Switzerland (EY regional) selling Niki. What a mess! In the most likely scenario, JU will still remain part of EY but no further expansion. I am also glad that incompetent Hogan has gone!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Znaš kako se kaže: I ćorava koka zrno ubode. Tako i proroci propasti. Kad tad se desi nešto negativno i oni odmah skoče: je l sam vam rekao!
      Samo pitanje da li je to što je ubola ovog puta zrno ili još jedan trač od koga neće biti na kraju ništa.

      Delete
  34. Oh, molim te. Ja sam samo bio realan.

    ReplyDelete
  35. First, EY will remain partner of JU if Serbian government offer lucrative incentives to UAE, and that's likely to happen.

    Second, it was newer published that Hogan started his career as station manager in JAT Australia. Therefore he was very emotionally involved with and truly looked after growth of JU under EY's umbrella. His largest mistake was Kondić who's only attribute at the time was his Serbian origin and Australian passport. Over three and a half years Kondić managed to create a schizophrenic atmosphere in the company and to derogate suppliers and other companies JU is working with. Hopefully, Kondić will step down with Hogan.

    Third, whoever suvceeds Hogan will try to keep JU as small but important gate to the European territory. I don't expect surrender of Balkans to LH just like that.

    Fourth, the consolidation of UAE market by merger of EY with ek is not likely bearing in mind political circumstances in the country. It would be possible only if Abu Dhabi would get the main role, which is unlikely.

    Fifth, it's obvious that ju is facing tough period. As soon as they get rid OK Kondić, chances are higher for the better outcome.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 'Fourth, the consolidation of UAE market by merger of EY with ek is not likely bearing in mind political circumstances in the country.'

      Dubai is again entering a recession. I don't think it will be asked much. Abu Dhabi bailed it our the last time - and guess what, it become the owner of the holding company that own Emirates and dnata!

      With both airlines not fairing well, I think ego and politics will take a back seat... heck even the tallest building in Dubai is called Burj Khalifa...

      Delete
    2. @Anon at 8:19 Other than hate for Kondic you don't bring much to the table. It's not all rosy elsewhere, how come you don't know it? Not enough experience?

      Delete
    3. Anon @ 8:57

      Must be you are fan of Kondić, or you are from his communication department. But it is known all over JU what were his major contributions to the company. He was very good in creating animosity towards JU. It's well known in Serbian government as well.

      Delete
    4. Poruke što ovde pišu neke komšije kako mrze JU, ili ljudi što navijaju za Wizz, to po tebi sve lično piše Kondić da bi stvorio animozitet prema JU? Hvala za informaciju nisam znao.

      Delete
  36. Good ridden to bad rubbish, Hogan,Kondic, and the rest.Ljubica

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You must have been one of those ex-JAT people that were told to find something new in life to do 3 years ago ... still haven't found anything yet ?

      Delete
    2. Why they ask those 600 people to leave, and spent millions of our money for that, and then they give jobs to 1.400 new workers. So it was not to try to make company more efficient, to cut costs, but it was to remove "nepodobne" and put "podobne" instead. On huge cost of tax payers.

      Delete
    3. What are you talking about ? It was 300, not 600. In any event, those 300 who were told to leave, were for many years a burden on the taxpayer, collecting a pay cheque and doing nothing. Etihad did the taxpayer a huge favour by getting rid of those people. They weren't "nepodobne", rather, they were "neradnici". Just get on with your life. I'm amazed that after 3 years, you are still unable to do so...

      Delete
    4. Ahahahahaha,good job ASL PR.:-)

      Delete
  37. Nebi se trebao EY povuci iz ASL sa kojom je imao dosta uspeha i svakako im je to najbolja evrospka kompanija.
    A takodje ASL ima jos dosta potencijala i ne mora da znaci da je istina sto pisu novine .
    INN-NS

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ..."The airline is now planning to roll back its European investments, which include a 29 per cent stake in Air Berlin bought in 2011, a 49 per cent stake in Air Serbia acquired in 2013 and a 49 per cent stake in Alitalia"... http://gulfbusiness.com/abu-dhabis-etihad-dismiss-group-ceo-james-hogan/

      Delete
    2. They are simply stating which investments have been made in Europe, the article doesn't state that all three stakes will be abandoned.

      Although I do understand why you wish for it to happen so hard.

      Delete
  38. OT: It has begun! Lufthansa strikes back :)
    http://www.aviatica.rs/lufthansa-group-integrise-ceo-brussels-airlines-u-eurowings/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This piece of news is several days old.

      Horrible news for Brussels though.

      Delete
  39. This doesn't necessarily have to mean that Hogan's successor will withdraw from ASL as well. Air Serbia has been quite a successful enterprise. Nor does this have to spell disaster for ASL whatever happens. We'll see. At any rate, the next couple of years shall be very interesting. And now OU has to consolidate its strategy and immediately jump at a potential opportunity. The same goes for ZAG as the regional hub, which was/is/has been the Aéroports de Paris plan all along. May the best competitor win!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. OU has no resources to jump at anything.

      Delete
    2. If they get the strategy right, they can take out a loan.

      Delete
  40. I think some are getting ahead of themselves. It doesn't mean they are giving up on their business plan, it just means that they will evaluate it once again and see if it made sense.

    Just because they are going to try and sell some of their business ventures doesn't mean they will find a buyer for them. Who in his right mind would buy AZ?

    AB is a different story because LH is a scavenger and is taking over bits and pieces it likes. Airlines like Air Seychelles, Jet and Air Serbia are safe in my opinion. It doesn't mean they are perfect but in comparison to AB or AZ they are light years ahead.

    This could also be a trick they are playing on AZ and AB investors who are making their life hard.

    Anyway, interesting times ahead, that's for sure. I hope that now when EY and LH have signed a code-share agreement JU will do the same with OS.
    Austrian Airlines needs a 10.00 departure to BEG to offer convenient connections from North America. Air Serbia's flight departs at 09.25 so it's a perfect fit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If JU signs a codeshare with OS, the prices on BEG-VIE will skyrocket even further. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

      Delete
    2. Well, the only time when fares between BEG and VIE were low was when Niki was flying to Belgrade. The moment they suspended flights fares doubled.

      The only way we might see some competition on this route is if Wizz Air launches BEG-BTS.

      Delete
  41. Good move EY. Investing in all those loss making airlines was not a smart strategy especially given the financial strength of EK and QR. At least QR invests in commercially and financially strong airlines rather than loss making airlines

    ReplyDelete
  42. There is still not a "move". Only hopes "da komsiji crkne krava"

    ReplyDelete
  43. Za sve one koji navijaju za njemacku i lufthansu samo znajte da ce oni sve nas da cizmom zgaze. Ljepa nasa polako postaje ljepa njohova. Josip

    ReplyDelete
  44. kids, this is capitalism. If main business is at stake, owners of the capital will not hesitate to kill all other investments, which are not MAKING profit, not only money. Oil is at historical low, Gulf airlines have huge debt due to new planes shopping frenzy and now they stand at the abyss. Be sure, if killing AS is going to ease the pressure, they are going to kill it. It is unfortunate, but this happens when state sells national airline. Just have a look at IT industry, when companies are in trouble, they axe work force by thousands...

    ReplyDelete
  45. And it's happened - Hogan is out. 2017 is going to be interesting. I'm guessing EY will concentrate all their efforts and finances on their own carrier and try to shield from the behemoths of EK and QR.

    ReplyDelete
  46. And it's happened - as supposed nobody mentioned Air Serbia. It remains by EY.
    http://www.aerotelegraph.com/wird-etihad-grossaktionaer-von-lufthansa

    ReplyDelete
  47. Kadrovi Etihada odlaze iz Air Srbije i to je jasan znak da se Etihad povlaci .

    ReplyDelete

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