Monday, April 17, 2017

EX-YU airlines forecast mixed 2017


The national carriers from the former Yugoslavia have forecast mixed passenger results for the year, following a record 2016 during which the four welcomed over 6.6 million travellers.

Air Serbia, which has positioned itself as the busiest carrier in the former Yugoslavia, will this year grow at a decreasing rate and has reduced operations during the summer when compared to last year. However, at the same time, it will boost existing capacity on its narrow-body fleet with the introduction of new slimmer seats. The airline has recorded 7% passenger growth during the first quarter, according to preliminary data. For 2017, the airline has signalled a shift in its business model that will "allow for accelerated growth", according to the carrier. "There is still much more room to grow within what we have. The focus is going to be on internal consolidation and strengthening the business before we go on to any major further growth", Air Serbia's CEO said recently. The company handled 2.62 million passengers during 2016, up 3% on the year before, which represents an additional 70.000 travellers.

Croatia Airlines anticipates handling over two million passengers this year, making it its busiest on record. The growth will be fuelled by the introduction of four new routes this summer season from Zagreb, on top of the four new services launched from the Croatian capital last year. "With a total of eight new destinations in the last 365 days, Croatia Airlines has offered the market an additional 100.000 seats, which is why in 2017 we expect further growth in passenger traffic and a record 2.000.000 passengers", the company said in a statement. The carrier handled 1.94 million travellers in 2016, up 5% on the year before, which represents an additional 90.000 passengers.

EX-YU airlines, passengers carried in 2016

AirlinePAX (million)Change (%)
Air Serbia2.62 3
Croatia Airlines1.94 5
Adria Airways1.10 5.6
Montenegro Airlines0.58 0.6

Adria Airways carried 1.103.530 passengers in 2016, an improvement of 5.6% compared to the year before. It anticipates for growth to continue into 2017 with additional frequencies on its key routes. The airline handled 227.588 passengers during the first quarter of this year, an increase of 8.3% compared to the same period in 2016. On the other hand, Montenegro Airlines expects for its passenger numbers to decline this year as it consolidates its operations and optimises its network. The Montenegrin carrier said, "Plans for 2017 are based on the reduction of costs and the maximum utilisation of all available capacity, as well as business optimisation on all levels. As a result, and keeping in mind the state of the existing fleet, the company anticipates a decrease in the number of passengers, with an improved average cabin load factor". Montenegro Airlines saw only a 0.6% increase in its passenger numbers in 2016, when compared to the year before. The carrier handled 581.519 travellers.

84 comments:

  1. My prediction for 2017

    Air Serbia - +1%
    Croatia Airlines - +6%
    Montenegro Airlines - -3%

    For Adria I have no idea. I can't catch what they are doing exactly. They seems to be growing in Ljubljana and shrinking elsewhere.

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    1. JU is actually experiencing tremendous passenger growth in April (some 15%) without adding frequencies.

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    2. That's good news. How come such growth?

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    3. Every airline is experiencing big growth during this April because Easter is right at the middle of it.

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    4. There was Easter last year too.

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    5. Yeah but it's special this year

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    6. Why? Last year one Easter was in March and JU saw growth in March this year despite that. Last year orthodox Easter was on May 1 meaning there was a passenger spill in April and May from that holiday travel. If they are seeing such strong growth in April it's a good sign.

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    7. I like it when signs are good, don't you?

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    8. Did they have a 15% growth in March? No.
      They are having big growth this April like everybody else because both the Catholic and Orthodox Easter holidays coincide.
      That allowed a whole lot more people to travel.
      Not just in the ex-Yu region but everywhere.
      May as well as the January to March period numbers will show us far mnore accurately how this year will be for JU's performance.

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    9. Well January to March shows 7% growth.

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    10. Anyone have Q1 numbers for the other three?

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    11. Anonymous April 17, 2017 at 12:00 PM
      Correct, the April figures are because of the Easter being on the same day for all.
      From next month we will see growth numbers returning to the levels of the Jan-Mar period.

      Lets all hope that the increase in seat capacity on the Airbus fleet will happen quickly and it will compensate for the reduction in the number of flights.

      Христос вoскрeсе!

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  2. Don't understand how Adria managed such growth in 2016 o.O

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    1. well they are the official results from statistical office.

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    2. I know I'm just wondering how they managed it. They cut a whole lot of flights last year.

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    3. They opened new flights from Poland. They were closed later on but that could have had an impact. Dunno.

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    4. The figures include Nordica's traffic.

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    5. I think the number would have been much higher in that case so I'm not so sure.

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    6. So if it includes Nordica, what are the numbers without it?

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    7. Adria has become one of the least transparent airlines in ex-Yu since they were bought. But then again if you dig a bit you see how nontransparent their owners are. In fact no one even knows who is behind 4K.

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    8. JP is now a private company and under no obligations to report their numbers to anyone.

      So get used to it

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    9. There is no requirement for airlines to publish any kind of data, except for the very basic financial results at the end of each year.

      Usually, when a company is very secretive about its results, it means they have nothing to boast about.

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    10. What are you talking about ? Publicly listed companies ALL have mandatory reporting requirements - it is part of their listing obligations.

      Airlines which are govt owned - such as JU - also have reporting requirements.

      Businesses which are privately owned (such as JP) have no such obligations to report their annual financial results

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  3. It will be interesting to see how Air Serbia's new business model will impact on their passenger numbers.

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    1. Who knows... they will basically become a glorified Wizz Air just wth more expensive tickets. Dane is even considering charging for food and drinks.

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    2. Honestly for a flight to Tivat or Podgorica I really don't need food. The current prices on these routes are ridiculous. If they came down to around 80 or 90 euros I would gladly fly with them.

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    3. It's a risky move to be making at the height of summer. They should have waited until the winter season.

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    4. Interestingly, Adria's numbers went up when they went hybrid even though they didn't introduce new routes.

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    5. I think you can't compare the two. They operate in completely different markets.

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    6. Of course you don't need food but a snack and a drink should be ok on such a short flight.
      Also don't think fares will go down just because perks have been removed.

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    7. Wizz can't offer what Air Serbia has: connections, long haul, codeshares, airports like LHR and CDG, wi-fi on board etc.

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    8. Anon 2.47 PM - Wake up! No one is interested in what Air Serbia has to offer. All they want is a cheap price point which is exactaly what Wizz Air has to offer. You included

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    9. I never flew Wizz and hope I never will. No one is interested in Air Serbia connecting flights or long haul? Really, are you a three year old?

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    10. Long haul flights? Are you referring to the 3-5 pw BEG to JFK with an up to 16 hour layover in BEG and flying on an ATR before connecting? Even at a €157 price point I'd much rather do EK via DBX.

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  4. It will be a huge year for OU. Finally breaking 2 million mark.

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  5. Good results in 2016. Combined they finally passed JAT's results from the late 80s.

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    1. It's funny that Adria still hasn't surpassed its 1987 results. Same with Air Serbia which hasn't surpassed Yugoslav Airlines' '87 result.

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    2. That's so sad, actually. lol. Quarter of a century lost in space.

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    3. And both are still a way off.

      Adria's 1987 results - 1,740,000 passengers
      JAT's 1987 results - 4,531,000 passengers

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    4. It goes to show that when you are not a monopoly protected by the government and you NEED to attract passengers who are now able to make different choices it is a much more difficult environment in which to compete.

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    5. You can't compare Air Serbia and JAT results unless you put the all the countries together again, and that's never going to happen. Imagine USA states becoming separate countries, then asking 20 years later "How come AS (Alaska) is still not bigger than Delta was before breakup?".

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    6. @11:50 Zbirni broj putnika sa exYu prostora je odavno veci od predratnog ucinka JATa. Ljudi su onda bolje znali da se prilagode trzistu. Dve avoikompanije za cartere i jedna za redovni avioprevoz.

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    7. Well you can't really compare as you have much, much more international operators now than in Yugoslavia. More people fly, but with more airlines to choose from. Very mean and out of place comparison. Pointless.

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    8. Now what is really sad is that Air Serbia is still using the same aircraft in 2017 than they were in 1987...

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    9. Anon 7.46 PM - too funny! I'm guessing that JUs flagship ATR might be around for many more years to come and may just break a world record having the most livery changes

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    10. No, thir flagship is the A330. Croatia's is the Dash 8.

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  6. Interesting for MGX that almost 50% of their passengers either depart or land from/to Belgrade.

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    1. That has always been the case.

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  7. It is really sad that all mentioned companies are still alive only due to illegal support (one way or another) of their governments. Nobody pays full amount of fees (very often nothing at all) to local airports.

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    1. This is true for most companies in the world, especially American ones, so I don't see what you're getting at.

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  8. yesterday flew BEG-SVO on Aeroflot 2091, B737 flight full (142 on board). We were boarding at A5 while A4 was boarding JU flight to Tirana. Interesting and to my surprise they had A319 on that PM flight and from what I could see the waiting area was very crowded so I presume the flight was very full

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    1. Tirana gets a mix of Atr and A319. It's one of the best performing routes for JU. It was one of the rare ones to get extra frequencies at a time when we saw massive cuts.

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    2. BEG-LED last weekend had a mediocre load on the way there and around 80 pax on the way back.

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    3. Flew OU ATH - DBV yesterday - 100% full. A lot of Australians heading to a conference. Great to see DBV attracting the high end conference market out of peak season

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  9. Quite good news for JU growing in Q1. Their numbers were down around 6.5% in Q1 2016 compared to 2015 so it means they have regained those passengers.

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  10. OT: LF on today´s flights BUD-SJJ 85,2% and SJJ-BUD 100%.

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    1. I guess it's like that because of Easter.

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    2. Do they know it is Bajram time? Zabole ih mnogo za Uskrs.

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    3. Yeah, Hungarians really care about Bajram. ;)

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  11. Good performance in 2016. 2017 will be more challenging.

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  12. I don't see why Croatia Airlines is the only ex-Yugoslav airline not to work with Air Serbia. JU has codeshares with JP and YM but no form of cooperation with OU.

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    1. One word: Kucko.

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    2. OU refused to work with JU. Air Serbia wanted to code-share to Zagreb and to the coast but Croatia Airlines turned them down.

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    3. What a stupid decision. Maybe they reconsider with a new managment at OU.

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    4. OU lost here as they could have made some more cash they desperately need.

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    5. Maybe OU just doesn't want to work with JU? No compulsory obligation on their part

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    6. Why are you so obsessed with OU?
      There is no rule that every company has to codeshare JU. Monopoly ended when YU had collapsed. Get used to that.

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    7. Monopoly? Sorry but there were more destinations available from Zagreb back then then there are today. Not to mention you had airlines such as Pan Am and Air Canada flying regular flights.

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  13. Does anyone know the makeup of Croatia Airlines passengers? Domestic vs international?

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  14. Does anyone know why yesterdays OU632 flight was diverted to Pula? Weather?
    (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9a-cqd#d1642eb)

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    1. It was flight ZAG-PUY via ZAD so it was probably diverted direct to PUY because it was late more than 2 hours in departure from ZAG

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    2. How has OU's on time performance been since the new terminal opened in Zagreb? Haven't followed that

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    3. There wasn't big delays. This plane also landed late from Brussels so something happened there probably.

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    4. Why there would be delays at the new terminal? It's an airport with an average flight number of 110 arrivals and departures combined a day.

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    5. I ask because Kucko complained about the new terminal and how it would increase turnaround time. I guess that could happen in July or August when some of the planes will have to be parked at the old terminal.

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  15. Apart from new routes it will be interesting how OU will compete against all the extra competition on the ciast and Zagreb too.

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    1. I don't think it's a case of competition for OU more like Croatia needs the extra capacity to cope with the projected increase in pax numbers. Which ever the airline is great news for all Croatian airports and great news for the economy of Croatia.

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  16. Whatevere happened to Croatia Airlines' plans to open bases across ex-Yu this year?

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    1. Hopefully Kucko came to his senses and opted instead for increasing flights out of ZAG and the coast.

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    2. Yep. Instead of opening bases in the ex Yu, they opted for Scandinavia. Thank god!!

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    3. OU never meant to open ex yu bases. It's called false PR. Purposefully false.

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