Monday, November 30, 2015

Adria scales back network growth for 2016

Adria to consolidate operations in 2016, add aircraft

Adria Airways' CEO, Mark Anžur, says the airline plans to consolidate its operations next year and scale back plans to expand its route network. The statement is in stark contrast to the airline's earlier strategy to add a number of new routes from Ljubljana and secondary bases next year. Speaking to "ATW", Mr Anžur said, "We are developing our own strategic plan, which can be supported or not by the new owner. 2016 will be a year of consolidation. We will work to maximize the efficiency of existing routes, rather than opening new ones. We have had flight operation problems because of a lack of crew, so we have to fix that and work on our load factor. In 2017, we are planning on growing again significantly".

In contrast to his latest statements, earlier this year, Mr Anžur said, “Next year we plan to base an aircraft in Tirana and have three daily flights to a number of destinations. We are considering at least two new routes. Italy is a very real possibility. We are already planning new flights for the 2016 summer season from Ljubljana as well. For us, these are interesting destinations as they are important business hubs and offer the possibility of connecting flights. The Iberian Peninsula will certainly be among them. Even Italy would be of interest". Over the last two years, Adria has grown significantly, adding routes outside of its home base in Ljubljana. This year, the carrier is expected to post a 16% jump in passenger numbers and 10% revenue growth. Only 5% of that growth so far came from the Slovenian capital.

Despite plans to scale back its network expansion, Adria is still looking to add two aircraft to its fleet next year. According to Mr Anžur, these will likely be an Airbus and Bombardier jet. A Bombardier CRJ700 is expected to enter the fleet during the first quarter of 2016, while a CRJ200 will be retired. Furthermore, the airline's CEO says the Airbus aircraft could be either an A319 with 156 seats, rather than Adria’s existing 144-seat configuration, or an A320. The A319 has cheaper upfront costs, but Adria also needs to strike a balance between demand for more seats in the summer and weak winter demand. Commenting on the airline's ongoing privatisation process, Mr Anžur says, "They [potential investors] have already submitted their bids and very soon the government will shortlist one and enter final negotiations”, noting there are both financial and strategic partners in the running. Shareholders are selling a 91.58% stake in the airline. The remaining 9% will “most probably” be sold as well, the carrier's CEO notes.

74 comments:

  1. Could it have to do with their Tallinn operations? I am sure they are giving them priority over Ljubljana given that it's safe cash.

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  2. This year was probably a disaster for them if they have decided a 360 degree change in stategy

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  3. So I doubt we will see that Maribor "low cost base" opening nect year either.

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  4. What new route do people think they should open from LJU? Which lines are lacking?

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    1. Italy and Spaìn

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    2. Should be Rome and Madrid or Barcelona as it used to be

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  5. I don't understand how operating so many bases (Lodz, Pristina, Tirana, Ljubljana and now Tallinn) can be profitable with so many different crew and you aircraft having to be stretched in so many places.

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    1. They were even considering a base in Venice!

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    2. Of course it can't be profitable ,especially with moving crews around Europe every 4 days.

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  6. How many routes did they add this year?

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    Replies
    1. TXL and ARN from LJU
      BRU and CDG from TIA
      AMS from LCJ

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    2. Forgot the summer seasonal:
      SEN from MBX

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  7. Adria's management is incompetent as usual. Instead of learning something from Aegean who are expanding left and right they are scaling back.

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    1. You are not allowed to mention Aegean on this blog, haters will immediately attack you.

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    2. Talking of Aegean, for those interested here is a picture of their latest A320 that was delivered fresh from Toulouse three days ago. If I am not mistaken this is the 10th aircraft they added to their fleet in the last year.

      https://scontent-vie1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/t31.0-8/12239272_1025666587495957_2170327828197116109_o.jpg

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    3. @ nemjee

      looks like an updated livery too.

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    4. JATBEGMEL,

      Hmm.. no, no. It's the same old livery, maybe it seems revised because of the blue sharklet? Also, some of the second-hand A320s they got do not have the grey belly. I noticed that a lot of Olympic operated flights have been upgauged to an Airbus, these are mostly regional and domestic routes such as Mytilene, Chania, Kos...

      I still think they will have to add more aircraft if they plan on going through with their S16 schedule.

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    5. Aegean reported 9 month results.
      Εarnings: €792.2 million
      Profit before tax: €114.7 million
      9,23 million passengers, an increase of 17%
      No debts and 300 million+ cash in the bank.

      They could easily buy OU and finance its fleet and route development.

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    6. They are at a fleet of 59 aircraft now (45 A320's, 14 Q400s) and are receiving 3 more before next summer season.
      source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegean_Airlines

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    7. They could, not doubt about that but like I wrote on here a few weeks ago, Vassilakis said that they are mimicking TK and they are in a race against time as they want to expand as much as possible before the new IST airport opens up.

      In other words, I have a feeling that even if they do buy OU (which I doubt will happen but you never know), they will use both aircraft and crew for their Athens expansion, especially since their fleet is identical. I also doubt that the OU identity would be kept. I could see all the Q400s being transferred to OA.

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    8. Who owns Aegean?

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    9. From Wiki:

      As of 3 July 2014 the airline is owned by Theodoros Vassilakis (34.17% - 23.6% via Evertrans S.A. and 9.46% via Autοhellas S.A.), Alnesco Enterprises Company Limited (9.48%), Siana Enterprises Company Limited (9.48%), Konstantakopoulos Achilleas (6.39%)

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    10. Main shareholder is Vassilakis family, then there some ship owners.

      @Nemjee
      Yr suggestion is not logical, they can expand ATH without the burden of OU.

      OU will most probably become a small Aegean if purchased by A3 group. Brand will remain and focus will be given in inbound tourism as well keeping and expanding ZAG connections from/to Balkans and major european airports.

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    11. Anonymous November 30, 2015 at 2:52 PM
      +1

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    12. If OU brand remains separate and focused on tourist charters I don't see much benefit for A3 buying OU except to block Air Serbia from expanding.

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    13. Well, Aegean has not entered the charter market in Cyprus so I don't see why they should rush to do it in Croatia, especially since they are not that strong when it comes to Greece.
      I still believe that they will not buy OU but like I said, you never know.

      One thing is certain, A3 would not create a hub in Zagreb, that's certain. They have nothing to gain from it and it would bring them in indirect confrontation with Austrian Airlines, that is Lufthansa.

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    14. Come on guys, never heard of hybrid model? A3 depends less and less on pure charters, its more than obvious in their stats. They keep growing their international traffic thanks to ATH hub and HER and RHO bases.

      My educated guess is that they will create a small -if u prefer it like this- hub in ZAG, looking for flows from the balkans (north of Greece who won't backtrack to ATH to travel to UK, Benelux etc.) to main european cities while on summer they will exploit the inbound market of the dalmatian coast.

      Of course thats speculation but its quite logical if u follow their moves so far. My personal opinion is that A3 will offer more value to OU for Croatia than seeing their airline become a second tier feeeder to german or turkish mega airports.

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    15. Anonymous 5:46 PM is correct.
      Aegean substituted most of their charter traffic with scheduled flights to the same airports.
      HER I think has scheduled flights with A3 to 10 destinations in France alone!

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    16. Those scheduled flights are there for the tour operators, not so much for the O&D.
      Funnily enough it's only recently that A3 went after the charter contracts in a more aggressive manner. Up until then their charter presence was rather limited which made sense give the chaos that was present in the Greek aviation market.

      All international flights that are operated out of Rhodes and Heraklion are for the tourists. Their flights out of Athens, Thessaloniki and Larnaca not so much.

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    17. Their aggressiveness is best portrayed by how they responded to Ellinair's expansion. The moment Ellinair announced SKG-EVN charters, guess who did the same. This is just one of many, many examples.

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    18. @Nemjee
      Totally wrong on charter business as well tourism related subjects. A3 does what FR and U2 do, they sell part of their capacity to TOs, travel agents etc and claim benefits/losses on whats left. It seems that this model has fitted well as pure charters, meaning being subcontracted to just transport customers of others, are diminishing. I

      A3 until crisis hit Greece snobbed tourism entirely, their focus was ATH and SKG as well fighting state owned and privatized OA. They were forced though to learn the hard way when ATH traffic collapsed and empty seats had to be filled. Charters at the beginning provided income but A3 adapted quickly and gradually developed tourism traffic on their own. Acquiring Olympic and lowering costs were other major contributors, OA still has a very good contract on PSOs.

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  8. The Tallinn operation should be profitable, I wonder if it would be enough to offset losses in other routes though.

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  9. 1. Kako se nemogu chekirati u Parizu za konektirani let Point a Pitre - Ford de France karta kupljena kao jedna. Kazu to je zato sto let nije AF nego Air Antilles. Ali koja korist od code-share onda? Prvo puta ovo cujem.2. Kako moj kofer koji nije otvaran moze u Zagrebu tezit 23 kg a u Parizu 25. Zbog te "razlike u vlazi" morao sam se preparkiravati na podu uz salter. Sto u ovakvim slucajevima? Da nisam morao mijenjati aerodrom sve bi bilo ok. Kako ja mogu znati da mi je je kofer ok ako je prosao vagu jednog aerodroma i dame na drugom nece njavit? Sto da sam ga umotao u onu foliju?

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    Replies
    1. Zato uvek nosim svoj digitalni kantar as merenje ;)

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    2. U Zagrebu su te pustili. Slicno je sa LH oni mere kabineske kofere po zelji na Minhenskom i Frankfurtskom aerodromu posebno kada dolaze sa Balkana ili Arabije.

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    3. Kako su me pustilu ako su izmjerili 23 kg sto je dozvoljeno. Tako pise i na tegu.

      I moj digitalni mjerac je pokazao 23 kg.

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  10. The other day I was taxiing behind Carpatair F100 in CPH, with a call sign "Adria"?? Anyone know if this is related to their Estonia Air replacement?

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    1. Yes, Carpatair aircraft are also being used for the Esthonian operation.

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  11. A319 sa 156 sedišta? To mora da boli.

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    1. LH's A319's have 138 seats. http://www.lufthansa.com/us/en/Seat_maps_A319
      Wonder what JU's load factor would be if they had these 'efficient' seats.

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    2. Hard to believe that JU's load factor could get any worse but it is a possibility.

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    3. FYI JU's lf was higher than Croatia Airlines' during Q1-Q3 period.

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    4. I seriously doubt that!

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    5. You can doubt all you like, but facts are facts.

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    6. What "facts" are you talking about 7:41?
      The "facts" that ASL hides from its reports?

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    7. Easyjet has 156 seats in A319. However in that case they need completely new interior and - what is more important - 4 emergency exits above the wings. Anžur obviously does not know what is talking about.

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  12. What happened to the CRJ900 Adria has on order?

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  13. I don't understand. Why don't rhey just hire more crew if that's the problem?

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    Replies
    1. I think profitability is the problem and lack of crew is just an excuse.

      But I don't see a problem with this. They should try and drive the loadfactor up and then go and expand. Similar to what Air Serbia is doing this year.

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  14. OT: Transavia opens a base in MUC with 4 aircrafts

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    1. incl. 3 weekly flights to DBV

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    2. yes but that means even less pax for OU

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  15. OT: National Airlines was mentioned as potential carrier for flights from USA to Dubrovnik in 2016. Is this going to happen?

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    1. Why not? Are they going to fly to Belgrade instead?

      May 29, 2015: "Radujem se što ćemo u narednih godinu dana imati direktan let ka Americi, pa čak i ako to ne bude Er Srbija, biće mi drago da to bude neka američka aviokompanija, jer će to biti dobro za obe zemlje" naznačio je Kirbi.

      Now that this scenario is unfolding, could it be National? They didn't get 777, so perhaps Dynamic? Maybe not, they just had a mishap at FLL. Who else is left, just Omni?

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    2. I can see Delta launch ATL-BEG flights with their B777. They could cover all of the US from there, especially the north-east.

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    3. Another day passed that US Department of Transport did not gave permission for Air Serbia's flights to US.
      Is there any info about when will that be?
      It was supposed to have come three weeks ago according to the Vučić/Kondić press conference.
      Any reason for the delay?

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    4. Ja mislim da od svih americkih igraca samo AA bi mogao doci.
      Sto se brinete toliko za dozvolu bice sve uredu.
      INN-NS

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    5. Flights should have started much earlier than June.
      Why are the Americans making life difficult for Air Serbia?
      No American airline is flying that route.

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    6. Kako je BEG prosao na nedavno zavrsenom ECAC oditu (ocena 2 od 10) tesko ce Amerika uskoro. Sad postoje i formalni razlozi za odbijanje zbog neispunjavanja standarda.

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    7. Siguran sam da si im već poslao mejl ;)

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    8. Anon at 5:58 it does not matter what is the reason for delay. Delay is what matters.

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    9. Ne verujem da će LH prestati da leti za BEG zbog loše ocene. Ako je u redu za LH biće valjda u redu i za JU za Ameriku.

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  16. Dobro je za ASL sto nijedna EX YU Kompanija za sad ne planira neku veliku ekspanziju zato sto je tremutno i sama zastala malo ali ce se popraviti zato su ovo dobre stvari.
    INN-NS

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    Replies
    1. pod hitno zameniti ATR sa RJ avionima - potpuno nebitno kojim (CRJ, Embraer, CS ...)

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    2. ti ce ih platis?

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    3. ne, svi mi kao i sve do sad !

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    4. Ti ocigledno ne shvatas da su tvoji roditelji platili kroz usluge koje im je pruzio JAT imovinu koju POSEDUJE ASL, a ne ti. Ostalo je lizovano tako da tesko lupetas.

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    5. Nije vazno placanje vazno je da se pare obrucu u srbiji .
      INN-NS

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    6. Pa dodji i ti malo da obrces pare u Srbiji.

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    7. Bio sam za vikend pa sam obrucao ;)
      INN-NS

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  17. Kompanija se raspada, piloti štrajkuju, otvaraju milion baza, a tako mala zemlja. Ništa mi tu nije jasno

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