The global air transportation industry is poised for continued recovery and expansion, according to the latest outlook presented by Dr. Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Chief Economist and SVP for Sustainability at the IATA AGM in New Delhi. Passenger traffic is expected to reach five billion segments in 2025, translating to 4.3 billion origin-destination journeys, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.2% projected through 2044. Over 60% of this growth will originate from the Asia-Pacific region. Air cargo is also forecast to grow modestly, with a 0.7% year-on-year increase to 69 million tonnes.
Despite complex regulatory landscapes and fragmented environmental frameworks, the industry is projected to post a net profit of $36 billion in 2025, equating to a 3.7% margin. Revenues are expected to reach $979 billion, while expenses will total $913 billion. Lower oil prices are offering some relief, though the disparity between jet fuel and crude oil prices (the crack spread) remains a challenge. Additionally, compliance costs related to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the EU continue to burden airlines, with fees nearly doubling the implied SAF price in some cases.
Passenger traffic remains the primary driver of industry revenue, accounting for the lion’s share of earnings in contrast to cargo and ancillary services. Total yield for passenger services is expected to drop by 3.2% in 2025, while cargo yields will decline by 5.2%. Regionally, North America will lead with $12.7 billion in net profits, followed by Europe ($11.3 billion) and the Middle East ($6.2 billion). On a per-passenger basis, the global airline industry is projected to earn $7.2 in 2025.