Air Serbia plans to handle up to half a million passengers during the first quarter of next year and introduce up to ten new routes in 2020. At the recent CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit in Malta, the airline said it anticipates welcoming some 488.000 travellers during the January - March period of next year, representing an increase of 27.4% on 2019. It forecasts for its average cabin load factor to increase four points during the three-month period, from 62% to 66%, while overall seat capacity will grow 12%. As a result, the carrier noted it was becoming one of the fastest growing airlines in South Eastern Europe.
Air Serbia said it plans to introduce ten new destinations in the summer of 2020. Although it hasn't officially revealed the latest additions to its network, the airline is expected to shortly confirm the launch of new routes from Belgrade to Amman, Budapest, Chisinau, Florence, Geneva, Lviv, Oslo, Rostov-on-Don and Valencia, while subsidised services between Kraljevo and Thessaloniki are also due to commence next year. Furthermore, the carrier plans to increase frequencies on destinations already served in its network. It outlined plans to grow its fleet by 10% in 2020 compared to last year with the addition of two aircraft. As a result, overall capacity would increase 18% in 2020.
Air Serbia handled over 2.5 million passengers in 2019 and is on course to register its busiest year since its relaunch in 2013. The company recently said, “We are working hard on making the next twelve months even better for our guests. A solid foundation and a strong wind in our sails have been provided by these results. We have continued to post exceptionally good operating results from the summer season into October and November, which were previously considered as slower months of the year”. It added, “We’ve also introduced, and continue to introduce, numerous technical innovations that will ease our business and ensure our daily operations run smoother and with far greater efficiency”.
Looks as if it will be a strong year for JU.
ReplyDeleteDo all these results include only its Belgrade base or Nis too?
ReplyDeleteand Brac?
ReplyDeleteThey don't plan to fly to Brac.
Deletein valencia on routes Meeting thay have start talk with manager of airport Brac aboute flights to brac
DeleteIf RJK and ZAD worked then BWK could too.
Deletes obzirom da se croatia jos uvjek nije sjetila pustiti letove za Brac u prodaju iako je letove vec potvrdila...otvaranjem linija za bwk air serbia bi mogla uzeti jako velik broj konekcijskih putnika jer bi sigurno imala i nize cijene nego sto ce ih imati croatia kad se napokon sjeti pustiti karte za Brac u prodaju
DeleteWhat are the biggest transfer markets from BWK?
Deletegermany?
DeleteFor JU, it would probably be the Netherlands and Scandinavia. It's unreal how many tourists from those countries visit Split & the islands during the summer.
DeleteŠteta, mogli su da uvedu Bračno putovanje :)
DeleteJU definitivno treba iskoristiti neozbiljnost i visoke cijene croatie te hitno reagirati kao u slucaju ljubljane i adrie te za sezonu pustiti brac u prodaju sa 3 do 4 tjedna leta i omoguciti dobre vremena konekcija prema njemackoj,brusselu i skandinavskim zemljama..
Deletea najbolji dani letenja bi bili ponedjeljak srijeda petaak kasno popodne i nedjelja vecer
Well, JU already hit OU with so many flights in summer to the Croatian coast. Generally speaking, JU's regional network in the Balkans is developing quite nicely especially now when they are back in Istanbul.
DeleteAnyone know if they plan on bring back double daily flights to ZAG?
Deletedont agree with OU being expensive. OU is cheaper then JU from SKP (dont know about other markets)
DeleteI'm interested to see frequencies on the new routes.
ReplyDelete2-3 weekly for all of them I believe. Some of the routes introduced this year will be increased.
DeleteAccording to a Norwegian aviation site Oslo will be 3 weekly - Tuesday, Thursday, Sunday.
DeleteOn a Russian forum I read that they requested ROV to be 4 weekly and to increase KRR to 4 as well. That's what they requested at the Russian directorate.
Delete@9.07. Makes sense. That way they won't be clashing with Norwegian on the same days. They will also have 3x weekly flights - Mon, Wed, Sat.
DeleteEW also revised their STR flights not to clash with JU.
DeleteFrom what I've heard only Geneva will clash with easyjet which doesn't seem to make much sense to me.
DeleteI think JU is pissed off at easyJet because they directly attacked them in Berlin. This is payback. Hopefully easyJet responds with flights from London or Paris.
DeleteI hope U2 responds with a base in BEG. to make W6 be a little active, not static
Delete@9.36 I don't think personal vendettas will work. They will issues competing on this route with easy if they go after the same days.
DeleteThey will also clash with LOT on Budapest route since LOT will be flying daily :D
DeleteI think BUD and LWO will be four weekly.
DeleteKIV as well.
DeleteCan all this growth be sustained with just 2 extra planes?
ReplyDeleteThe new destinations are mostly low frequencies, while KIV, ROV, AMM will operate during the night where they have enough capacity to do so.
DeleteThe 2 ac should be able to do roughly 8 rotations a day.
Interesting about January-March growth, that means advance bookings are great. Maybe even better than they expected. In 2019 BEG handled 1.035.383 passengers and if we assume in 2020 growth will be around 13% then the airport should have around 1.170.000. Though I am sure this number will be closer to 1.200.000.
ReplyDeleteWith this expansion coming I am sure BEG will have around 7 million next year. People can say many things but with 7+ million passengers BEG is starting to be relevant in the aviation world.
Next stop 10 million.
p.s. seems like Vinci knew what they were talking about when they said they are aiming for 12 million passengers.
KVO seems to be developing nicely. Yesterday's flight had 18 and 60 passengers.
ReplyDeleteConsidering tickets went on sale a week ago, not bad.
DeleteWith the subsidies they will get for these 2 weeks left of the year on that route they could fly empty and make a profit.
DeleteBus companies will be the most affected even with the highway to Chachak. Lots of people from Pazar, Tutin and Sjenica in Austria. This is perfect for them. Once the new runway is opened they should get someone to fly from KVO to German cities like Hannover or Dortmund.
DeleteAnon 09.11
DeleteThe great thing is that they are not flying empty. The government is covering their expenses so these great loads mean JU is actually making money since they are keeping the extra income for themselves. <3
they stopped selling tickets after march for KVO
DeleteThey never loaded them after March, the route was just launched a while ago. I am sure they will load the flights once they do the same for BEG. After all they need to find space in their BEG network for KVO flights.
Deletenot sure how much money you can make with 18 passengers
DeleteExactly. Like they still haven't loaded Kraljevo-Thessaloniki for 2020 summer.
Delete@ 9.40
DeleteThey are getting 297.800 euros in subsidies for these two weeks. With that alone I'm sure they will make money.
Well they have to give subsidies to someone so might as well give it to a Serbian company.
DeleteHopefully it's not only JU increasing flights at the expense of foreign airlines that are not subsidized by their governments. Without these JU Increases 2020 would have been a very quiet year for BEG.
ReplyDeleteThere are already two foreign airlines starting new routes to Belgrade.
DeleteEurowings is one, which is the other?
DeleteLOT from Budapest
DeleteAlso Nordwind has announced plans to start 3 weekly to BEG. We will just have to wait and see if those plans become a reality.
DeleteDidn't LO cancel those BUD flights? I was looking at flights for May and there was nothing.
DeleteNo, they are not canceled. They moved the launch date for their new routes.
Deletehttps://www.exyuaviation.com/2019/11/lot-delays-budapest-belgrade-launch.html
Who here is excited about 2020? I know I am. :D
ReplyDeleteQ1 2020 will be particularly good because Q1 2019 was quite a disaster.
ReplyDeleteHow many passengers could Air Serbia have by the end of 2020 with all these new routes. Remember there is Nis and Kraljevo too?
DeleteMost positive news Is the increase in LF even with a substantial increase in capacity.
ReplyDeleteShows that increase in connectivity has helped fill seats on existing flights as well.
It will definitely impact positively the bottom line.
Now just sort fleet renewal plans and they're on their way of becoming a true regional player in Europe!
Gold job JU!
I agree about LF, although I still think 66% is quite low.
DeleteI mean 66% is their estimate for 2020 Q1.
DeleteQ1 is the absolutely weakest period of the year, once they hit 70% it will be fantastic.
DeleteIt's interesting that when Air Serbia started restructuring 2 years ago under Kondic they said their goal was to decrease reliance on transfer passengers and focus on P2P travel. With this year's expansion it seems that strategy has been abandoned.
ReplyDeleteWell let's be honest, if Dane knew how to run JU the government wouldn't have sacked him.
DeleteTomorrow marks two years since he was fired.
The government had nothing to do with him leaving.
DeleteYes they did actually.
DeleteBrilliant news. Who would have imagined this some years ago. I am sure BEG will rise in that connectivity report next year.
ReplyDeleteIf it goes on like this they will be handling at least 5 million passengers a year in no time. Impressive
ReplyDeleteGreat news
ReplyDeleteLong haul seems to be the only thing they are not developing.
ReplyDeleteYes this is surprising. Maybe in 2021 when they achieve growth on their European flights to secure necessary feed.
DeleteThey should launch China. They have a sufficient European network to make those flights work.
DeleteThe major issue with long haul expansion is that it would require a second wide body aircraft and that is probably too expensive for them.
DeleteShanghai could work.
DeleteProblem is that their regional network is still too weak to sustain more long-haul flights. For example with current network they can't offer convenient connections to LCA, BEY, TLV, KRR, SOF and so on. Once they manage to boost their network even more it will be easier to later on add more long-haul flights.
DeleteRegional network will remain weak until they get more aircraft.
DeleteThey are getting more aircraft and they already boosted some regional destinations like SKP, TIA and LJU. SKG and ATH are already double daily but some like Bucharest, Sofia and Istanbul could use more flights.
DeleteImpressive.
ReplyDeleteTheir network in Italy is becoming extremely impressive. Daily flights to both Rome and Milan, 5 weekly to Venice and 2 weekly to Florence. That's three daily to Italy from Belgrade alone.
ReplyDeleteYou forgot Bologna aswell but its from Nis thou
DeleteThey're thinking on introducing Bari and Naples as well.
DeleteHopefully not, who would they carry to Bari and Naples?
DeleteWho are they carrying to everywhere else?
DeleteI do not why JU does not introduce seasonal summer flights to some of the Greece islands (like HER, THO, CFU...). They will have transfer and O&D demand. I know that charter flight are cash cows, but I think that there will be enough passengers, since I have seen how much passengers Aegean transfer form via ATH from islands. Also JU can sell some sets to the agencies and lower risk
ReplyDeleteI don't know. It didn't work out for Wizz Air for example.
DeleteYes, but it was not the same. Wizz Air had only O&D traffic, as I remember with only one weekly flight, and with terrible time table. JU with transfer flights can create very respectable network for Greece islands.
DeleteVery good to see metrics improving.
ReplyDeleteIs it true that JU stops Kraljevo - Vienna from end of March?
ReplyDeleteJust read that article on austrian aviaton.
https://www.austrianaviation.net/detail/air-serbia-gibt-wien-kraljevo-wieder-auf/
No it is not true. Like it was written above, the flights were never even loaded into the system for summer 2020 because they haven't finalized their summer 2020 schedule. Same way they haven't added Kraljevo-Thessaloniki flights into the system yet. Said site should do some more research.
DeleteOkay, good. At least they have loaded finally the INI summer schedule.
DeleteUnfortunately INI loadfactor figures are not that good in October:
ReplyDeleteFDH-INI 43% (Ø 61 PAX)
FKB-INI 36% (Ø 52 PAX)
HHN-INI 63% (Ø 91 PAX)
NUE-INI 47% (Ø 68 PAX)
HAJ-INI 52% (Ø 74 PAX)
Are these average load factors for return service or only one way?
DeleteThey are average loads from Germany to INI, so one way.
DeleteI am impressed by the fact that HHN and HAJ managed to have more than 50% LF. I wonder if JU's INI-HAJ affected Wizz Air's BEG-HAJ.
DeleteIn comparison to WizzAir and Ryanair, JU is pretty bad at the moment. October figures:
DeleteWizzAir:
FMM-INI Ø157PAX
DTM-INI Ø165 PAX
Ryanair:
SXF-INI Ø159 PAX
Now imagine the loads in the winter months or for the non-German routes. Subsidy economy.
Deletewhat is the source?
DeleteThere is a reason why the government provided JU with subsidies to operate these flights. Don't know why anyone is surprised that flights are half empty. As time goes by more and more passengers will use them.
DeleteRemember JU's BEG-AUH? There were initially 15 to 20 passengers per flight while by the end, just before they were forced to cut it, there were 110.
Source is german statistic office (Destatis).
DeleteBut the issue is, that I bet with WizzAir the flights would have an loadfactor of >75%, so finally at least around Ø 135PAX.
Air Serbia is just not known enough in Germany/ regional areas. And as well haven't seen big advertising about it.
Oh danke, their stats are mostly paid unfortunately.
Delete@Anon 12:23
DeleteYou will say that the German Federal Ministry of the Interior is corrupt and publish fake figures?
LOL Calm down. I am saying that you need to pay to get the stats from their website.
Deletehaha. But these ones are free of charge ;-)
Deletewould appreciate a link! Danke!
DeleteHere you are.
Deletehttps://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branchen-Unternehmen/Transport-Verkehr/Personenverkehr/_inhalt.html#sprg239702
there is no reasons these flights to exist at all
DeleteOf course there is. For the Serbian government it makes far more sense to invest money into INI so that passengers flying to these destinations no longer use other airports in the region.
Deleteobviously there are not many. They could have strengthen their BEG hub even more which makes more sense in the long term then this somewhat political stunt
DeleteAverage summer schedule PAX (Apr-Oct):
ReplyDeleteHAM-BEG: 3.100 PAX, 47 flights, Ø66 PAX
STR-BEG: 14.300 PAX, 181 flights, Ø79PAX
DUS-BEG: 17.180 PAX, 187 flights, Ø92PAX
Probably it was a mix of CRJ9 and A319?
What about FMM-BEG and HAJ-BEG?
DeleteI'm more interested in MUC, FRA and TXL. They are the biggest markets out there.
DeleteMUC and FRA are huge transfer hubs, no suspense there
DeleteSo? Or do we like to only show numbers which are not that great? ;)
DeleteFor FRA or MUC for example it is more difficult to analyse something as more airlines flying these route.
DeleteWizzAir is doing great on their BEG routs when it comes about loadfactor, but always depends on the yield. For October:
FMM-BEG Ø174PAX
FKB-BEG Ø154PAX
HAJ-BEG Ø167PAX
DTM-BEG Ø168PAX
I would say due to these figures of JU a regional jet with less than 120 or even 100 seats would be good for JU or on the other hand they need better marketing, because I think they have potential on those routes. But when EW starting STR-BEG it will be tough.
With more transfer options via Belgrade these numbers should improve.
DeleteBut p2p traffic is much more lucrative
Delete@Anon 12:13
DeleteBut these big airports like STR, HAM oder DUS have so many better possibilites for transfer as 5-10x daily FRA, up to 20x daily MUC with LH or via IST by TK than using a 1x daily via BEG, so I think most of the passengers are P2P PAX.
Have you been to FRA lately? The airport is a living nightmare most of the time. Recently we landed and were parked on a remote stand all the way at the end of the airport. We were riding the bus for 20 minutes before we reach the terminal. Same thing with the new IST where taxiing can take up to 45 minutes. BEG's advantage is that it's small and there is less stress.
DeleteI've been lately to FRA and I know the bus rides in FRA and as well in IST, but nevertheless. I would prefer a bus ride of 20min and wait maybe 1h for connection, than going via BEG with less possibilites and much longer waiting time. Maybe BEG works for some destinations as transfer, but I think for most connections FRA, MUC or IST has much more possibility.
DeleteSummarized I just think that the transfer ratio of for example DUS-BEG or STR-BEG is less than 10%, most I think are P2P. But maybe JU gets more transfer from the other side, so not outgoing from Germany, but incoming to Germany, for example ROV, which doesn't have that many other transfer options to Western europe.
Well as long as you think so. By that logic JU shouldn't be carrying any transfer passengers since from all places they fly to/from IST, MUC, FRA... are also a more convenient option (as you would say).
DeleteLonger connecting times in BEG? What are you on? You can't make a connection in FRA unless you have at least 2 hours. In BEG you can easily do it with 30 minutes.
DeleteHaha, I flight many times with quick connection in FRA within 1 hour between arrival and departure.
DeleteWith longer connection I meant, that when I have 20x flights per day to FRA, then I am pretty flexible about the other departure time. But when I have only one flight per day which arrives for example at 14.00 in BEG, I miss all morning departures and for evening departues I have to wait many hours as the other flight to my destination maybe only departures once per day at 18.00, for example HAM-Podgorica takes me betwen 11-17hours as from HAM only one flight available which arrives in the evening, but next TGD flights just departs from BEG in the morning.
Nonsense, HAM connected just fine to TGD which departs at 13.45. Also you might make the one hour connection in FRA but tour bag will not. Plus from what I've seen one hour connections in FRA are extremely rare, most are at least 90 minutes.
DeleteSeems like you don't travel as much as you would like us to believe.
Haha, nice you think I am a liar, but I travel as a FTL many times with Lufthansa via Frankfurt, and have 80% connection time between 50min and 90minutes for domestic German and European flights. I only travel with hand luggage, so that quick connections are fine for me.
DeleteSad is, that we can't discuss on a normal level without to imply that I lie, that's sad.
The issue with HAM, I just checked summer schedule 2020, and at least for Mo and Thursday arrival from HAM to BEG is 22:20, so you can't get for example TGD at 13.45. For sure you get the night wave to Middle East, but with one daily or less than daily flights you either get "day wave" or "night wave".
I don't say there are NO transfer PAX, but I think the most PAX are P2P pax.
Wish a Merry Christmas to everyone and let's hope to get a successful year 2020 with many happy landings. Cheers.
That's the point, you travel without luggage and without having to go through passport control. Try connecting from Belgrade to the US when you have to pass that horrid security control. ;)
DeleteIn those cases nothing less than three hours makes sense.
What are you talking about? I connected from BEG to YVR through FRA with 1h15 mins connection time and made it with time to spare.
DeleteSo you didn't connect from BEG, but started your journey from BEG. You connected in FRA.
DeleteSo there!
I flew YVR-FRA-BEG and once we landed from YVR we were sitting in the plane, on the tarmac for 45 minutes waiting for a free gate. On top of that I had a few hours between flights and my bag still didn't make it. I agree with the anon above, anything below 2 hours in FRA is risking it.
DeleteBEG will have space issues next year during most of the day. Airport has 19 gates in total and when you add JU fleet, two LH, two W6, YM and occasionally OS that spends the night there you realize that something will have to change next year. There won't be room for everyone.
ReplyDeleteSame with the early afternoon wave that starts from 11.30 until 13.50. That's when you have JU, two LH, SU, QR, EY (maybe two), easyJet...
BEG is in desperate need of an expansion.
Will this affect its runway, too? Will there be a second runway?
DeleteNo second runway, just one. One lonely runway handled seven million passengers.
DeleteSAW processed almost 30m pax on mostly narrowbodies with a single rwy
DeleteJust because someone does something doesn't mean it has to be done like that. Also SAW is building a second runway. Airports such as ATH, BUD, PRG, WAW, OTP... all have fewer passengers than SAW but more runways.
DeleteC side will get 6 additional gates till the summer...
DeleteI like how they came back to many markets they abandoned earlier: Kiev, Budapest, Istanbul... But Varna, Ohrid, Abu Dhabi, Warsaw are missing :(
ReplyDeleteKrakow should be instead.
DeleteI think Budapest will never work out as a destination. This was the case with INI as well. There is no interest from both sides I guess. There was hope with INI.
DeleteAgree with VAR but it could be a bit late.
OHD seems to be a weak destination, too.
ask Wizz if its a weak destination
DeleteThe point is that it is so close to Beograd. About 3.75 hours driving time.
DeleteZelje su jedno, mogucnosti su nesto drugo. Sa kojim avionima ce leteti kad ih nemaju dovoljno. Prestali su da lete DXB, AUG, IST...destinacije koje su uvek bile pune. Neka vrate prvo te destinacije pa nek onda razmisljaju o drugim
ReplyDeleteFYI Istanbul has been relaunched.
DeleteЕр Србија никада није летела за DXB, Јат јесте. Као што је горе написано у Истанбул су се вратили али и у Кијев. Изгледа да знају проценити шта вреди а шта не.
DeleteА друго, последња реченица нема много смисла. Неке линије су угашене јер нису биле исплативе те зашто би их сада враћали? Ок за неке које имају потенцијала али игнорисати неке добре због инсистирања на лошим је глупост.
Anybody knows if APK will get the same standard with seats and wifi as the rest of the A319 fleet?
ReplyDeleteWhat wifi??!!! Lol
DeleteThere is wifi on all A319s and A320s, other than the one added this year. It works quite well and isn't that expensive. Don't see what's so hilarious to you.
DeleteAny news on flights to NCE this summer?
ReplyDeleteLyon would be a nice addition for summer 2020.
ReplyDeleteTrue dat.
DeleteAir Serbia expansion in 2019 was not backed up by numbers showing how many of launched routes are profitable. It's nice to see passenger and LF increase but the only relevant measurement is how many of those lines are making money. Cheap JU transfer tickets via BEG are painting a picture opposite from rosy statements from the management. Is Cairo profitable? There are strong indications it's not, but there is no official answer.
ReplyDeleteAir Serbia is now attempting to launch another round of expansion with some of mentioned destinations unlikely to be profitable. Another victim of this doubtful plan is long haul expansion at Air Serbia. Intercontinental expansion was planned for years as a key component of a hub model and is now killed off to make room for failed destinations like Budapest that have 0% chance of being profitable.
Well, if 80-90% of new routes are successful, then that's not too bad. And measuring the success of a route is not only a combination of LF, yields, transfer pax but also, and other factors.
DeleteSerbia and Beograd are not tourist meccas, nor huge business hubs, at best modest regional centres. So advancing BEG as a regional hub, using the expanding services of Air Serbia is one way to expand the economy, provide new jobs, gain some promotion for Serbia.
So, it is important to look at Air Serbia, and BEG expansion in the wider picture.
"So advancing BEG as a regional hub, using the expanding services of Air Serbia is one way to expand the economy, provide new jobs, gain some promotion for Serbia"
DeleteSame can be said for Air Serbia long haul plans. Outside of IST, VIE and WAW, BEG is the only CEE airport where domestic airline offers regional connections to own intercontinental destination. Even if not profitable, importance of additional intercontinental connections are essential to both differentiate Air Serbia offering and for overall economy. Given longer timeframes to develop long haul routes, it can be argued long haul is more important for Air Serbia than adding destinations like Budapest and others on the list.
Good points. I think ORD & YYZ will work out.
DeleteQuestion is when is right timing to launch them.