Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport’s growth is expected to slow significantly over the coming summer season after its two largest carriers - Air Serbia and Wizz Air - reduced their planned operations for varying reasons. With foreign airlines keeping operations and capacity flat and no new carriers launching flights, the airport is expected to see the amount of offered seats on scheduled services in June, July and August at around the same level as last year, or marginally above 2023 levels. This is still subject to change as airlines may alter their planned operations, while loads on flights may differ from last year, which would also impact on the airport's passenger performance. Furthermore, the Easter holiday break this year falls on different months under the Gregorian and Julian calendars, which should provide a traffic boost in both April and May, while the Serbian capital is set to host the European Basketball Champions League Final Four tournament in late April, which is likely to fuel travel.
Following a record January and February during which the airport handled a combined total of over one million travellers with the average passenger growth rate at a high 24.8%, a similar increase is expected in March. However, the rate of growth from April onwards will notably slow down. Next month, Belgrade Airport is expected to see capacity grow around 8% at this point, around 5% in May, and be at almost the same level year-over-year in June. Airlines continue to update their schedules on a weekly basis, with Air Serbia finalising its summer network this week, while Wizz Air continues to alter frequencies based on aircraft availability.
Air Serbia was forced to reduce its network this summer after an accident involving an Embraer E195 aircraft operated on its behalf by Marathon Airlines led to the termination of its contract with the Greek carrier. Air Serbia was meant to have six wet-leased Embraer jets in its fleet this summer. Although it plans to replace some of them with several Embraer aircraft from next month onwards, they will be unable to fulfill the requirements of the initially planned schedule. On the other hand, Wizz Air has been forced to ground over forty aircraft over issues with Pratt & Whitney engines on newer neo jets. This has led to the airline slashing flights across its European bases.
I guess not hitting 9mil this year.
ReplyDeleteThere are many months to go and things can change quickly. I would not rule it out.
DeleteAbsolut right! Belgrade will see significant growth this year!
DeleteIf covid has taught us anything it is not to predict anything :D
DeleteMaybe everyone needs a break this summer and consolidated... That includes airline ground staff, flight and cabin crew, mechanics and passengers as well. Last two summers were very hectic and many people were exhausted... Many passengers as well didn't get the service they paid for, lost their flights, bags etc... I think we should take a break this year and consolidate to make 2025 even stronger!!
DeleteBreaks happen every year during the winter months. Grow when you can, otherwise somebody else gonna grab it.
DeleteExcept if you read my comment, you would realize that flight crews, Airbus specially, haven't had a winter break. In fact many had to use their 2023 vacation this spring (2024) as there was no room in the planning for them to be used last year. You try working for 11 months straight without vacation in this industry and let me know how you feel at the end.
DeleteUnfortunate but 20%+ growth could not run forever.
ReplyDeleteThe unfortunate thing is that both Wizz and Air Serbia planned a record schedule. If that had stayed in place growth would have been over 20% each month.
DeleteAnon 09:07 Depends on how much the bear wants to dance.
Delete0911,if that grandmum had grown a beard she would have been called a...?
DeleteOne thing I'm sure is that once the engine saga is over Wizz will come out with big growth
ReplyDeleteI notice that Wizz has replaced one A320 in BEG back to the A321.
DeleteI agree with @anon 9.9. I think we might see Wizz base its fifth plane in BEG next year.
Delete09:09
Delete2025. I see Wizz Air with upcoming expansions in Tirana. Possibly also in Bucharest. I believe that 100% we will have another new machine in Belgrade and at least 5-6 destinations. Some old small airport routes will return like INI, TZL, BNX. If Kiev opens, W6 will deploy capacity there. And of course Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia (where we can also see AOC).
What could Wizz potentially launch from BEG in their next expansion?
DeleteFrom the last one, it is noticable they are going after primary airport and Air Serbia routes.
Delete^^^
DeleteThat would be bad for JU but good for ticket prces.
W6 BEG-TIA would be nice. With open borders between RS, AL and NMK it's also feasible.
DeleteI presume Helsinki, Bratislava or Brno, Bremen, Gdansk or Wroclaw, Manchester, Dublin, Glasgow, Bergen, Ibiza, Tenerife, Almaty, Baku…
DeleteAno 1340 bolje bi bilo Prag nego Brno ili Bratislava
DeleteBrno i Bratislava se sekundarni Becki aerodromi sa gomilom dijaspore svakodnevno.
DeleteAir Serbia salje ATR za Prag, tako da bi Wizz tesko mogao da napuni A321
Šalju ATR zato što je cena povratnog leta i više nego prenaduvana zbog svog monopola na toj liniji. Vozio sam se u februaru i ATR je bio pun, što naših, što čeških turista. Moje mišljenje je da bi itekako Wizz napunio A321 sa jeftinijom cenom karte jer ima Srba dosta u Pragu i okkolini
DeletePlus bi sigurno bilo naših turista koji bi hteli da posete Prag i čeških turista koji bi želeli da posete Beograd
DeleteBEG should do more to attract new airlines. And I don't mean just because of this situation but in general.
ReplyDeleteThey have actually attracted quite a few in the last couple of year - British Airways, Luxair, KLM, Hainan, Air Baltic....
DeleteNow when I look at it, they attracted mostly European legacy carriers.
DeleteThey don't want to step on JU's toes too much because they depend on them. That's why they are not too proactive.
DeleteThat won't last forever, eventually they will go out and attract new airlines.
Delete8,1 by 31 Dec 2024. That's it. Next year more. Wizz will add more capacity, JU also without problems with fleet.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, I see no issue with this. Given the facts that last year was chaotic, VINCI a terrible key player as a handler and Menzies coming I think that a slower ( as in not lower but slower growth ) year could be a time well spent. So far, planes are mostly on time, baggage is here. BUt, there is a potential problem with Menzies employees and their salaries which are at the time of writing lower than before and will change on Friday but we will see will that be a good or bad change. As a BEG employee, I always like the Summer Season and am really looking forward to this one.
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteI think we shouldn't forget charter traffic. I don't now if it will be up or down on last year.
ReplyDeleteNznam ko je analiticar ovog teksta o projekciji saobracaja na Aerodromu Beograd. Kraj sezone i kraj godine ce pokazati istinu. Mnogi koji su procenjivali saobracaj nisu dobronamerni bili. To se moze videti u proslosti.
ReplyDeleteBuducnost je tek ostvareno. Ipak blog trpi sve...
😀✈🌐🛬
Vi zaista optuzujete ovaj sajt da je zlonameran? Clanak vam lepo objasnjava da su ovo brojke na osnovu postojecih kapaciteta na letovima. Jos i kazu da su pormene moguce.
DeleteWait! We still have to fight the people who think that Slovenians travel from Croatia and Croats from Slovenia. The subject is delicate.
DeleteFR WILL COME TO BELGRADE 🇷🇸 🇮🇪
DeleteThis guy is so deluded OMG
DeleteThe fact that May Day and Easter holiday will be combined one after the other will provide huge increase in numbers. I heard a few days ago on tv that based on data by tour operators over 100,000 people have purchased holiday packages to travel outside of Serbia during that week.
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteWhen will we finally see charters to Zanzibar..... Interest is huge at the moment. Thailand and the Maldives would also be successful. For many years BEG lacked exotic destinations. I think it's about time!
DeleteMiami is a step in the right direction.
DeleteIt will become like Romania. Suddenly BEG will start charters to Thailand, Tanzania, Oman, Maldives, Kenya.... It's only a matter of time?!
DeleteI still wonder why JU shut down Aviolet. However, the JU brand is bigger, occupying all the charters in Serbia. JU is a real leader in the charter segment. I believe the A330 will be deployed to at least Thailand or the Maldives soon after the two new ones arrive. About Zanzibar he is now a hit!
DeleteOman should work.
DeleteI think an ACMI airline based in Serbia should be created, this would allow for the addition of temporary capacity in JU and the expansion of charter programs with a new player. As for Serbia not being in the EU, they can just set up an AOC in Malta and that's it. I think there should be more Serbian airlines with big planes like A320 or 737 and not C560X (not bad of course, but...).
DeleteWell there was one - Aviogenex. There were several interested buyers, some very well known, in the airline but the government blocked it so it wouldn't be a competitor to JU.
DeleteSerbia had Aviogenex. It was kind of like a small Enter Air. It was a very good airline. Nowadays she could play the role of a strong player in BEG and the charters would probably be theirs. Of course, this will not benefit JU.
DeleteAt the same time^. Agree!, The state did not do well then.
DeleteAgreed*
DeleteMany airlines tried to compete with JAT/Air Serbia, but it didn't work out.
Delete@9:51 AGX without Yugotours is like a paddle without a canoe - useless.
DeleteIf you had to have fleet issues that they were very lucky it is this year because Wizz Air can't respond in any way.
ReplyDeleteTrue
DeleteSomething tells me Wizz will find a way. They already brought one A321 back to BEG which was not planned.
DeleteProbably annual growth will be around 8%.
ReplyDelete9 million at least, more like 9.5 mil until the end of the year. With two widebodies arriving, 3 Ejets and 3 ATR is already more than last summer. Frequencies will grow on all lines plus new Asia destiantions, maybe even Miami this year.
DeleteI see actually no problem here.
ReplyDeleteWe cannot expect 20-30% growth every year!!
BEG will have Around 8 Mio passengers in 2024, and that's good.
Tirana will surpass Belgrade...so what??
Next year will show that Tirana cannot have such a growth continuosly- and even if- Belgrade results are generally good.
It had 8m already in 2023.
DeleteYes, I don't understand how you concluded they will have around 8 million when growth in Q1 is over 20% and when it is still expected to have growth throughout the year. The article simply says it won't be 20%+ growth.
Deleteeven if the summer months have the same seats available, there can be a larger load. BEG had about 300k unfilled seats during june/ july/ august. which could be filled this summer. the winter schedule should be larger than it was in 2023 with the introduction of at least the 3rd widebody entering service to China. by the end of the year BEG should reach 9 mil or close to it.
DeleteThe negative side of both JU and W6 being impacted is that ticket prices are growing.
ReplyDeletePrices are quite high everywhere, but BEG doesn't have enough LCC
DeleteIt has Wizz Air, easyjet, Norwegian, Eurowings....
DeleteAgreed, could support a few more LCCs
DeleteBelgrade Aiport isnt immune to the Europena Economic downturn, the one which most governments are hiding
ReplyDeleteThis actually has nothing to do with the economy. If you read the article, you will see why the growth (yes still growth) will slow compared to last year.
DeleteWhat downturn are governments hiding? Please enlighten us what is going on in Western Europe. The only place in the world that hundreds of thousands of people want to move to and settle permanently, year after year.
DeleteAussie knows better what's happening in Belgrade and Europe.
Delete> The only place in the world that hundreds of thousands of people want to move to and settle permanently, year after year.
DeleteThe only place? Never heard of the USA and millions crossing over from Mexico?
What is the third largest airline in BEG? After Air Serbia and Wizz
ReplyDeleteLufthansa
DeleteThank you
DeleteNot Turkish??
DeleteThe good thing is that we will see if there is an organic growth in passenger numbers and demand, rather than growth resulting from capacity growth.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the peak is coming to the end.
ReplyDeleteDon't get your hopes up.
Delete2 big mistakes that JU did is the divorce with Etihad and Jiri deciding to lauch a huge expansion. Just go to TrustPilot and carefully read the comments about JU and the rating is now 1,4 out of 5 and you have the "staff" responding in a very lame way. Also, the latest Marathon nearly fatal incident will not help. BEG needs to talk with Vinci for attracting new carriers especially Ryanair or more easyJet routes.
ReplyDeleteBEG airport and and as a large city lacks "basic" services as an airport hotel, railway or metro. Also why are so many reviews related to luggage loses, cancellations and delays? Clearly and internally Marek needs to look into the issue. The Marathon incident is much more serious that you can imagine and it was a pure miracle everyone survived.
You are right. They should not have expanded and posted 45 million euro profit. They should have shrunk to make you, KUM & co. happy.
DeleteBEG airport has started 2024 with growth of over 25%. Did you expect that 25% growth to last forever. It will have growth throughout the year.
Rail to the airport is under construction. Line will be open in 2027.
The profit is low considering the massive growth that Belgrade has seen. JU is riding on the growth but it is not driving it. If JU was doing something strategically brilliant then its share in Belgrade would be growing. It's not. So it is not BEG which is growing because of JU, but the other way around.
Delete^ you can't make this stuff up 😂 yes, BEG is not growing because of JU. Have you read this article today and seen what impact it has on BEG when JU is not growing?
DeleteRegarding the Trustpilot reviews, I agree that they are bad, but at the same time have a look at the others: LH (1.2), KLM (1.4), LOT (1.5), BA (1.4). Even Emirates has only 1.8, Singapore Airlines 2.0, Turkish 1.4...
DeleteWhat airlines could BEG attract that would make sense to fly there?
ReplyDeleteI would say Iberia but I think the market has already been won over by Air Serbia with flights to Barcelona, Madrid, Palma, Valencia, Malaga...
DeleteSAS
DeleteSAS is a potential option like you mention. I don't know if it is still a case but years ago we did a university study about traffic flow between Scandinavia and Serbia and had data on passenger numbers. What it showed at the time is that traffic is extremely seasonal between Scandinavia and Serbia. In summer, particularly certain months, it is very busy but in winter it isn't. Of course things might have changed since then.
DeleteI don't see the point of Iberia or TAP. What can they do or bring to the market? Air Serbia has completely won over the market between these countries and Wizz also has flights to both.
DeleteI also don't see much point in Finnair. Air Serbia tried and failed in Helsinki. Other than Scandinavian transfers which are not large, I don't see what they can offer. Asia transfers don't work anymore considering the flying time from Helsinki to anything in Asia.
Iberia and TAP could offer connecting flights + lower prices for P2P traffic.
DeleteIf JU failed in HEL as they did not gave appropriate plane it does not mean Finnair would fail.
Finnair stopped flying to ZAG but they still fly to small LJU. Of course it is mostly due to tourism, but BEG is so bigger than LJU that some portion of its market could be taken by Finnair.
AY I also don't see happening. JU has more to offer on the route than the other way around.
DeleteTAP would have a very hard time to make a return now that 2 players have entered the market.
SK I don't see returning with 2 carriers quite established throughout Scandinavia.
IB could be a possibility considering the large hub they have at MAD and JU's low frequencies on the route.
Icelandair could be a great option. It would make for an awesome alternative for the TATL market.
Volotea could also make for an interesting airline in BEG.
Interesting thoughts and very to the point.
DeleteThe only one I can see as having real potential is Volotea = flexi, a lot of destinations, ultra low cost.
What about ITA?
DeleteITA I dont see happening anytime soon. A third player on the BEG-Rome route would involve dumping fares on a route that already has fairly low fares. ITA codeshare with JU and I think that's enough for them now. JU operating 14 pw on the route would have more benefit for them rather than launching the route themselves at this moment.
DeleteWith codeshare they wouldn't have to cut the prices, there were times when ITA (Alitalia back then) and JU made Wizz suffer on the route, with great frequencies and connections. I think ITA's comeback would benefit JU's Rome operations but not sure what will be changed with LH's takeover.
DeleteIncrease in seats and competition always equals lower fares. ITA/JU codeshare isn't really big and would need a larger increase to create the demand needed, which I don't see happening. Rome isn't a market that can support 3 carriers so 1 would have to go. All would suffer until 1 carrier pulls out. Losing Wizz on the route for a JU/ITA duopoly wouldn't benefit BEG. Neither would ITA entering the market really benefit JU at this stage, which is slowly trying to turn the route into double daily for its own hub.
DeleteQatar Airways is also cutting QR234 from BEG (evening flight). I'm hoping that means widebodies on QR232 (day flight) though..
ReplyDeleteThey are not cutting. These flights were only scheduled during the winter. They actually have more flights than last year to Belgrade this summer. They are flying daily instead of the 5 weekly they flew last year from March until July.
DeleteQR have fleet issues especially when they "bizarrely" decided to switch from A320 to B737. Now they will have to wait a bit because of Boeing serious internal problems. There are serious fleet shortages in the industry. Even Wizzair is deploying Avion Express planes.....
DeleteQatar didn't switch to 737 they just got a few to help with shortage on ME routes. They have A321neo order pending delivery after they resolved Airbus dispute.
DeleteAnd I didn't mean they cut the flights to less than last summer, just a shame that there's no 2nd daily, but I hope they make up for it with B787-8 on daily service.
And i almost stopped flying from Belgrade, because it's so much more chepaer from Budapest with Wizz Air.
ReplyDeletei don't care for Air Serbia, i care for cheap tickets, so basically, we just need competion and ryanair in BEG and also others.
That will lower the price (THE MOST important thing for passengers) and improve the numbers much (the most important thing for people argueing here :) )
And Air Serbia will be fine also
Saying at least for cheap flights in Europe. Prices from BEG are more and more expensive
DeleteDoes the city bus 72 continues from Belgrade Airport all the way to Budapest Airport for the same fare? You think we don't know how much it costs, how long it takes when border is busy and how inconvenient it is for a family with small kids and baggage to get from Belgrade to Budapest airport, and then the same on the way back? Or you don't care about it?
DeleteBasically in Europe LCC and P2P is growing more and more. Also with the introduction of trains, almost everyone would prefer rail to plane. Spain and Italy are good examples where Madrid Barcelona was one of the busiest domestic air routes in the world and now you have 3 entire high-speed trains in 2h30min from downtown Barcelona to downtown Madrid. As for air travel, more and more cities are being connected with LCC. People are used to travel with a small bag or 10kg and learning to avoid fees and paying less. It is becoming a norm not to be served even water on European flights and business class becoming just "luxurious economy". Yes, prices are logically cheaper from BUD, they traffic is highly P2P because nobody really makes transfers there following the collapse of Malév in 2012. It is not only a hot touristic spot, but huge university city, but basically for a 9,5 million country the only real airport. Debrecen is just a "decoration". This is why there is much more merit in countries like Croatia, Montenegro and Bulgaria with smaller populations, but more airports compared. Then you have Slovakia with 5 million and Bratislava or Kosice barely have large traffic because everyone flies from Vienna. Merit algo goes to all Baltic airports that have very high traffic even if there is a large diaspora in UK.
DeleteVilnius had 4,4 million passengers in 2023 and the small country has 4 operational airports
Yes, Srbija has 3 airports, but the real hub is BEG and the difference in traffic between BEG and INI is enormous. Same trend in Czech Republic - compare traffic in Prague with Brno. 14 million vs 700 thousand for a 10,5 million nation. So yeah, we can continue with the comparisions forever....
...and EasyJet and Wizzair in Zagreb. You are boring.
ReplyDelete