Air Serbia is considering expanding its ten-member ATR72-600 turboprop fleet as it continues to grow its regional network. Speaking to “Aviation Week”, the carrier’s CEO, Jiri Marek, said, “The ATR fleet serves as the core feeder within what we call the wider Balkan region. We currently operate ten aircraft and are exploring opportunities for further growth. For some time, we considered ten aircraft sufficient, but with rising fuel prices, we are now looking at the possibility of expanding the fleet”. He added, “At the moment, the ATR fleet is relatively stable. However, if attractive opportunities arise on the market, we may add one, two or even three aircraft. Our main focus in terms of fleet development is currently on phasing out the Airbus A319s, replacing them with A320s and expanding our Embraer E195 fleet”.
Air Serbia launched its regional turboprop fleet renewal programme in 2022, gradually replacing its ATR72-200 and ATR72-500 aircraft with the newer and more fuel-efficient ATR72-600. The first ATR72-600 arrived in January 2022, followed by three additional units that year, three in 2023 and a further three in 2024. The process was completed in June 2024 with the arrival of the tenth ATR72-600. The transition enabled Air Serbia to standardise its regional fleet around a single aircraft variant. At the time of the programme’s completion, the average age of its turboprop fleet stood at approximately nine years, down from 22.
Commenting on long-term fleet requirements, Mr Marek said the airline will need to replace between ten and fifteen aircraft. “We strongly believe that, if we look solely at fleet replacements, we will need between ten and fifteen aircraft. However, we operate in a market that is growing significantly faster than the rest of Europe, with strong GDP growth across the region. Air travel demand typically grows at twice the rate of GDP. Even with conservative forecasts, we expect this market to grow by at least 5% annually over the next five to ten years, although growth is more likely to be closer to 8%. Based on our current fleet of 40 aircraft, it is relatively straightforward to calculate how many additional aircraft we will need each year simply to keep pace with demand”. Air Serbia has announced plans to add two A320s, which will replace two A319s, and one Embraer E195 to its fleet next year, while negotiations for a third A320 are in their final stages.
That would make sense
ReplyDeleteAgreed. And the ATR fleet can also be used to reduce seasonality in winter. For example, ATR is great for a Saturday flight to Alpine ski resorts, such as Innsbruck, Bolzano, etc. I’m pretty sure they can fill up a 72-seater once a week in winter.
DeleteGood. More regional passengers means more potential passengers for the longer routes.
ReplyDeleteBravo
DeleteThe ATR is probably the aircraft where an extra two or three units could make the biggest difference to thel timetable.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely. More frequencies and more ATR routes would benefit transfer passengers to rest of the network
DeleteI wonder whether they would consider factory new ATRs eventually or continue looking exclusively at used aircraft.
ReplyDeleteLeased for sure
DeleteFactory new and leased aren’t mutually exclusive. They could lease new ATRs too. But his reference to attractive opportunities on the market sounds more like they are looking for available aircraft at a good price.
DeleteFor me the main downside of the ATR is the noise. Otherwise perfectly happy to fly on one for an hour.
ReplyDeleteATR76 is much better regarding noise reduction comparing to ATR72 or ATR75.
DeleteI don't see the issue with noise. Older A319/A320 tend to be noisy as well, esp. if you're close to the engines
DeleteWell, he basically said that within next 10 years they were going to double the current fleet of 40 aircraft. That would be 80. But that calls for a new airport.
ReplyDeleteNo. 50-55 would be JU's limit with the current aiport and thats the late 2030s.
DeleteAt this point, adding aircraft is for increasing frequencies. There aren’t many new destinations left to add and the new capacity will be up gauging. A321 will soon be a necessity for competitiveness.
Delete(You will cue to the listing every airport in Europe and the mid east crew with that comment :-)
DeleteGuys, Air Serbia's CEO envisages some 8% annual groeth. If it were 8%, that would mean 115% in all, in 2036.
DeleteNo it doest
DeleteIt 'doest'? Do Your calculations or ask AI. It's some 20 million a year, mate.
DeleteYou can’t conclude they need a new airport just from the fleet size. It depends on how many aircraft are on the ground together, when the flights operate and what infrastructure is added over the next ten years.
DeleteThe 115% increase over ten years is correct but where does 20 million come from? At 8% annual growth you multiply the starting figure by about 2.16. You would need to start at roughly 9.3 million to reach 20 million.
Delete@10:56 can you explain what on earth you are talking about? You mean passengers? people are talking about fleet numbers. JU carrying 20million passengers a year in 10 years is not possible. Do yourself a favour and ask AI.
Delete@11:45 Indeed. But one can project based on announced plans and restrictions of the airfield etc. Furthermore the idea that unremitting 8% growth is going to occur is quite optimistic. We see huge fluctuations with airlines far more established than JU. Indeed sometimes they will have much higher growth than that, and I'm sure within the next decade periods of contraction we cannot foresee now. But all in all they have been excellent with managing the fleet and maintaining very solid and sensible decisions over their growth which is to applauded.
Delete@11:47 Clearly, 20 million would be the traffic at BEG. And, of course, if JU is to mantain its share of it, JU needs to expand its fleet... much - and well beyond airport's capacity at peak hours. That's what Marek has been pointing to for some time. I don't plan to act as Capt. Obvious for some forum members - do some hermeneutics yourself.
Deleteindeed which would make a fleet of between 50 and 55 aircraft realistic by 2036.
DeleteIdemo dalje...
ReplyDeleteMnoge destinacije koje danas opslužuju ATR-om su isti prerasle i potrebno im je više aviona tipa E195. Nije ostalo još puno novih ruta gde mogu slati ATR.
ReplyDeleteIndeed. But replacing some of the existing ones will also need to occur in coming 5year cycle.
DeleteI believe that additional ATRs would enable adding more morning feeder flights
DeleteZapravo, očigledno je iz ovoga što je Marek rekao da neće biti menjanja ATR-ova avionima koji troŝe više goriva. Linije ATR-a mogu u proseku da se produže, pre negoli skrate.
DeleteDodatni ATR-ovi bi mogli značiti ili još novih regionalnih ruta iako je malo toga ostalo nepokriveno, ili dodavanje frekvencija.
DeleteHe is quite clear that the priority remains the A319 replacement and E195 expansion. More ATRs sound like an option if a good deal comes along, rather than a firm fleet plan.
DeleteNo, this is the key: 'For some time, we considered ten aircraft sufficient, but with rising fuel prices, we are now looking at the possibility of expanding the fleet”.
DeleteThis shows the shift in planning and that some routes that would otherwise be flown by jets, would be considered as ATR destinations.
Or bulking out the frequencies of some existing ATR destinations. Either way, the decision to have the aircraft is very solid. Personally I love to fly on them!
DeleteThis week Prague has been getting the E195 almost every day.
DeleteLots of regional flights getting E190 these days and many destinations seeing bigger aircraft.
DeleteToday even Kazan is getting A320.
It’s the election weekend too, people coming to vote…
DeleteThank godness.
DeleteI za Sarajevo u poslednje vreme većinu letova obaljaju E190,195 avioni.
DeleteCurrently, for 10 ATRs Air Serbia has 4 A330s. If they add three more ATRs, does that mean they will also add one more A330?
ReplyDeleteThere isn’t a fixed ratio between the two fleets. Those additional ATR passengers could be connecting to European flights as well. Another A330 would need enough demand on the long-haul routes themselves.
DeleteIf they add three, that is a 30% increase in the turboprop fleet. Quite a substantial expansion
ReplyDeleteIf demand grows by 8% annually, they would need roughly twice the capacity in nine years. That is a much bigger undertaking than adding a few aircraft next summer.
ReplyDeleteI’m not convinced you can translate market growth directly into aircraft numbers. Replacing an A319 with an A320 already adds capacity without increasing the size of the fleet.
Delete+1
DeleteThey added the first ten -600s in less than two and a half years. After such a rapid replacement programme, it makes sense that they paused before deciding how many more they actually need.
ReplyDeleteIs that ATR that was hit by ground handling still out of operation?
ReplyDeleteYU-ASF. Yes. Apparently should be back soon.
DeleteMore ATRs can open opportunities to launch morning and evening flights to Bucharest, Sofia, Skoplje and Tirana. Also to launch more new routes such as Iasi, Wroclaw, Graz, etc...
ReplyDeleteIt was only a matter of time for the lists to begin...
DeleteDon't forget Maribor, Kosice, Tatry Poprad, all the villages in Romania, Plovdiv, even Brno and Ostrava....
Delete'Villages' in Romania... Give us a break from your strange imaginative geography.
DeleteHuh, I expected that ATRs would be slowly replaced by E195s, because they have bigger capacity and higher speed, which is nice if you have pilot shortage and growing market. But I guess with high fuel prices ATRs look pretty good.
ReplyDeleteThey have said from the very start the Embraers are replacing the A319s. They have close to 50 seats more than the ATRs so I don't know how you concluded it would be a good replacement for the ATRs. They never mentioned plans to replace ATRs. If they had that planned they would not have renewed and grown the entire ATR fleet just 2 years ago.
DeleteThe ATR is a perfect aircraft for routes like Zagreb, Rijeka, Banja Luka, Budapest and the new expansion into Romania. Speed is only one aspect of a calculation. Frequency is very important and that is where a lot of growth will occur.
Delete@12:19 when I said slowly I meant 5-10-20 years. Again, with passenger growth and pilot shortage E195 looks more and more attractive. For example, on routes to TGD and TIV already half of rotations are A319 and E195, it's reasonable to assume that with time similar developments will happen to other destinations. And by that time TGD and TIV would be served by A320 and A321.
DeleteI fly every month Vienna-Belgrade and flight difference between ATR and others is trivial and not something us usual passengers care.
Delete@13:39 how exactly does using E195 instead of ATR help with pilot shortage? Crew is doing same rotation on both
DeleteThere is no crew shortage. An airline with 15% more flights this November does not amount to crew shortage. Stop making nonsense up.
DeleteI agree that speed doesn't matter to passengers. But flight to Prague takes 1:10 on E195 or 2:00 on ATR. Thats 50 minutes more of pilot time and plane time, 100 minutes per rotation. You can just make more flights with same amount of pilots and planes.
Delete^ As as people have noted they use the right aircraft when the route needs it. Prague being the perfect example. So i don't think there is much to debate tbh.
DeleteProduzetkom razvoja Er Srbije, realno je ocekivati flotu od 52 aviona. Od cega 15 ATR 600. Uskotrupnih 30. I 8 sirokotrupnih aviona. Razvoj i liberizaciju nekoliko aerodroma u sklopu kompanije Aerodromi Srbije. Aktiviranje potencijala omogucice rast i buducnost vazdusnog saobracaja Srbije.
ReplyDelete8 widebodies is wet dream only.
Delete^ same was said for 1 then for 2 then for 3 then for 4
DeleteWell then get ready to change your pants because JU will not stop growing.
DeleteI still think BEG wasted a great opportunity to build a 2nd runway, when they resurfaced the existing one.
Delete2nd runway would provide extra capacity during peaks.
The runway is not the issue and airports can get much later than this with one runway. Rather the terminal layout and isn't great for future developments. But it is what it is and has lots of life in her yet.
DeleteIndeed, a new terminal between the runway and the highway would complete the project.
DeleteI still done get it why they hire 2 A321s for a season to test them out and see how they fit. There are definitely a handful of routes where these birds could come useful.
ReplyDeleteIts been discussed alot
DeleteI hope they utulise extra ATRs on routes to/from KVO.
ReplyDeleteIST and couple of seasonal routes are not enough.
Judging by the passenger numbers, they seem to be more than enough.
DeleteToo much really, but it's political.
Delete'Too much' passengers? or 'too much' Aircraft hahah
DeleteIt is PSO for a reason. It means the route can't not work without financial support.
DeleteTrue, IST cannot work and needs PSO.
DeleteWho wants to travel to Istanbul ?
Try a destination in W Europe.
Vienna would be packed, northern Italy too, all within ATR range.
DeleteVienna was also PSO and failed so much it wasn't worth continuing the PSO. IST is the most rational choice due to travel trends in that part of the country. Finally, try to understand that Air Serbia is a HUB AND SPOKE airline. Google what that means.
Delete^there are some people here who believe that Serbia is the economic equivalent of Germany and that as a result it needs airports in all parts of the country with at least 20 routes.
DeleteWhen oil crisis hits ATR becomes a cash cow for the airline.
ReplyDelete