Zagreb Airport has recorded its third consecutive monthly passenger decline with traffic falling 3.3% in September, continuing a slowdown that began in July. The airport handled 455.530 passengers during the month, while its growth rate for the first nine months of the year has narrowed to just 1.1%. The latest figures come as Croatia Airlines reduces capacity during its fleet transition. Passenger numbers at the airport are expected to decline again in October, before recovering gradually in November, with December likely to see little change compared to last year.
Zagreb Airport has attracted notably fewer new routes this year. So far in 2026, the airport has secured four new services, including Warsaw Modlin, Tel Aviv and Beijing via Bucharest. This compares to six new routes in 2025 and ten in 2024. During 2026, the airport has also lost four routes, three of which were operated by Croatia Airlines. Several factors have contributed to the slowdown, including rising fuel prices, which have made airlines more cautious about launching new services, Croatia Airlines’ stalled network expansion and increases in nearly all of Zagreb Airport’s core charges and fees.
Zagreb Airport is looking to return to stronger growth and has launched a new incentive scheme, with airlines having until December 31 to apply. The new model significantly lowers the entry threshold for incentives compared to the previous scheme, under which Ryanair was the sole beneficiary and airlines were required to generate a minimum of 35.000 passengers per year. This change is expected to make the scheme more accessible, particularly for smaller markets and airlines considering lower-volume routes. Another key difference lies in the programme’s duration and flexibility. The earlier model ran over a five-year period, whereas the new scheme is limited to four years but introduces mechanisms that reward stronger early performance. Airlines exceeding 100.000 or 150.000 passengers in the initial years can secure continued incentives without needing to meet annual thresholds.
Under its new Growth Incentive Model, Zagreb Airport excludes a defined list of destinations from eligibility, as these are considered either sufficiently developed or not strategically prioritised under the scheme. Despite Wizz Air’s interest in Zagreb, the airline said in July that airport-related costs remained the main obstacle to establishing a base in the Croatian capital. However, it did not rule out launching flights to Zagreb and confirmed that discussions were ongoing. Zagreb Airport is considering reopening its old terminal building, which has not handled commercial passenger traffic since 2017, for use by low cost carriers.
Based on currently filed seat capacity on scheduled flights, Zagreb Airport is expected to record an overall capacity increase of 1.8% in November, driven primarily by Ryanair, which will offer just over 17.000 additional seats, as well as Air China’s new service and capacity increases by Austrian Airlines, KLM and Air Serbia. December is currently projected to remain largely flat, with around 100 fewer seats than during the same month last year. Capacity reductions by Croatia Airlines, Lufthansa and Qatar Airways are the main factors weighing on growth during the final month of the year.
Continued High oil prices will affect all Airports and all Airlines eventually
ReplyDeleteDefinitely with our exceptional politicians we hve in Europe
DeleteAir Serbia has 60 more flights comparing with previous winter.
DeleteBelgrade is getting a lot of new destinations including new airlines.
Obviously it won't affect all airlines and airports.
Not as bad as most of those over the Atlantic..
Delete@9.10 we have known that for a while
Deletehttps://www.exyuaviation.com/2026/09/air-serbia-adds-over-100-weekly-flights.html
Zagreb has the advantage of being in the EU and having a relatively strong tourism market. There is no reason why it shouldn't be attracting more European airlines.
Delete@09:24
DeleteNo harm to be repeated especially in comparison with today's topic.
Airport should have been much more proactive
ReplyDeleteThe reason the airport has a decline is Ryanair. Most of the growth in the last few years has been generated by them. This year they didn't grow and the numbers went south. If you read the article, even in November this year ZAG will break the decline only because of FR.
DeleteThat is true. Ryanair has basically been keeping Zagreb's passenger numbers afloat for the past few years. Without them the situation would look considerably worse.
DeleteExactly.
DeleteIf we just look back how many airlines left ZAG and how many destinations have been cancelled it was good that Zagreb had any growth up to now.
Sad
ReplyDeleteThree consecutive months of declining traffic while most airports in the region are growing. Something clearly isn't working.
ReplyDeleteTrue dat.
DeleteAnd not just any 3 months, but the busiest ones in the year.
DeleteHow many passengers is ZAG likely to have for the whole 2026?
Delete4.7 or 4.8 million.
DeleteAirport management has done very little to attract new carriers beyond Ryanair. Four new routes in an entire year for a capital city airport is disappointing.
ReplyDeleteZagreb should be growing by at least 5–7% annually at this stage
ReplyDeleteWhy? What's with this insatiable appetite for growth? 7% is an insanely high number.
DeleteOk, it should contract 5% annually. lol on an aviation forum people cheering for no growth.
DeleteBased on what?? Have you consider the growth in past year was very high while LJU was very underserved? Be realistic, if Ryanair as a major European LCC is shrinking (or staying flat), then there is simply not enough demand for further growth. We can cheer for every exyu airport to growt 10% and more, but we are not living in fairytale.
DeleteThese Zagreb results are terrible, but it is interesting that also some other Croatian airports in last 3 months have less passengers this year comparing to the previous one.
ReplyDeleteZagreb, Split, Osijek...
There is a negative campaign on social medias, telling people that Croatia is expensive. The sad part is that most of it is coming from Croats themselves. And in reality Croatia is no more expensive than any other tourist destination in Europe.
DeleteWell thats not exactly correct mate. You try self catering from a Croatian supermarket compared to one in Spain. Even Lidl etc. It is overly expensive which hurts locals also.
DeleteAnd yet again in the same Lidl I've found things cheaper than Serbia. Yes, things got more expensive, but putting to much into negative campaign can hurt you to earn less money, but the price will stay the same.
DeletePrices in Croatia are higher than EU average. That's a fact, whether you like it or not.
DeleteThey have juro and uncompetitive industry.
DeleteBravo Hrvatska!
ReplyDeleteDull
DeleteDo we really need continuous growth?
ReplyDeleteIs continuous growth something realistic?
At some stage wouldn't the market comapacity be saturated?
I think their main issue is profitability… and they are trying to find a solution for this - and Ryanair is probably not the answer
DeleteNo, it should not. Country bragging with "growing economy and tourism" should have growing aviation sector, which in Croatia isn't a case. Someone is lying.
Delete^ add to that, if they add more passengers they need to start the terminal expansion. I guess that is why they want to reopen the old terminal. It is likely much less investment than being another wing to the existing terminal.
DeleteLet's not forget that Zagreb experienced several years of very strong growth. A period of consolidation was probably inevitable
DeleteMany other airports including BEG had much stronger growth and despite it they are still growing.
DeleteForever growth? No. Continuous growth at this stage, for an airport of a capital city of an EU country which receives only 4,7 million passengers annually? Yes definitely, until it gets at least 8 million passengers annually.
Delete"No, it should not. Country bragging with "growing economy and tourism" should have growing aviation sector, which in Croatia isn't a case. Someone is lying."
DeleteZagreb authority passenger numbers will be higher than ever this year, Croatia tourist arrivals will be higher than ever this year, tax revenue from tourism services is higher than ever, GDP per capita is higher than ever.
These are neutral facts.
Airport * not authority
DeleteCroatia Airlines gets new aircraft but Zagreb gets fewer seats. Quite a paradox.
ReplyDeletePeople are being too negative. Zagreb is still handling more than 450,000 passengers in September. A 3.3% decline isn't exactly a catastrophe.
ReplyDeleteNo, these are actually great news.
DeleteSome people here...🙄
Do you know that there are words between "catastrophe" and "" great "?
DeleteCatastrophe is not the right wording, but what are the airport and OU actually doing do improve Zagreb connectivity? Not enough if you ask me. Both seem to have interest to stagnate.
DeleteIf the old terminal really reopens LCCs, things could get very interesting. I wonder whether Wizz is already negotiating something behind the scenes.
ReplyDeleteIt's quite ironic that Zagreb's biggest competitive advantage was supposed to be its modern terminal, yet now we're discussing reopening the old one because airlines find the new infrastructure too expensive.
ReplyDeleteTrue
DeleteIn what universe does a terminal building represent a competitive advantage?
DeleteActually Zagreb Airport officials for over a year said that with the opening of the new terminal they will be able to attract many more airlines. Same way Croatia Airlines was saying how the new A220 will lead to a complete transformation and opening of new routes. So far they have shrunk their network compared to before the A220s.
DeleteFour new routes and four discontinued routes. Essentially no net network growth in a year. That is probably the most concerning statistic in this article.
ReplyDeleteThessaloniki is not discontinued
DeleteThe real test will be 2027. By then Croatia Airlines should have completed its fleet transition and the airport's new incentive scheme should start producing results. If growth remains stagnant, there will be fewer excuses.
ReplyDeleteThere is already no excuses
DeletePeople are blaming the airport, but fuel prices, airline fleet shortages and weaker demand are not something airport management can control.
ReplyDeleteIt is the same with other airports which have growth.
DeleteSo, it is not an excuse at all.
I never understood the concept of blaming an airport for passenger figures. No one blames a bus station when FlixBus has empty seats.
DeleteI actually think reopening the old terminal for low cost carriers makes sense. Lower operating costs could attract Wizz and perhaps easyJet. The current terminal is expensive to operate.
ReplyDeleteBut won't other airlines want to move then too? How can you limit it to LCCs?
DeleteI find it incredible that Zagreb is discussing reopening the old terminal while the relatively new terminal is nowhere near its capacity. What does that say about the original planning?
DeleteI think you know the answer😊.
DeleteThe new incentive scheme sounds promising but it remains to be seen whether the airport is genuinely interested in attracting new airlines or simply offering Ryanair another discount.
ReplyDeleteZagreb isn't an unlimited market.
ReplyDeleteNowhere is
DeleteZagreb Airport needs to decide what kind of airport it wants to be. You can't charge premium prices and then expect low cost carriers to come rushing in.
ReplyDeleteAnd I remember that we were reading here, of course before Ryanair arrived to ZAG, that Zagreb is "prestige airport". 🤣
DeleteI doubt there will be success with new incentive model and introduction of new lines. Coz flights should start by 31.12. Unless it applies to already existing lines + Bejing.
ReplyDelete"Prijava za Novi model poticaja rasta prometa i lansiranje prvog leta moguć je između
01.06.2026. i 31.12.2026."
The A220 was supposed to be the beginning of a new era for Croatia Airlines. Instead we're seeing fewer seats, fewer routes and higher losses. Hopefully 2027 will be different.
ReplyDeleteCroatia Airlines needs to start thinking beyond feeding Lufthansa hubs. Zagreb has the potential to support far more point to point routes. Ryanair has proved that.
DeleteYou can not assume any route will work just because it works with Ryanair. People literally look at each € when it comes to plane tickets.
DeleteI doubt that Zagreb-Malta would not have worked with Croatia Airlines a few times per week for the past decade. Ryanair is not flying more than once per day on certain day between Zagreb and Malta.
DeleteI agree Malta would work. Also Malaga probably. But don't forget that people would still drive to Venice, Vienna, Budapest and Bratislava to catch cheaper flights, which are ofter as low as 30€ from ZAG with Ryanair. So the numbers would be much smaller.
DeleteHub and spoke for short haul is dead for decades. No amount of life support will fix OU no matter who manages it.
ReplyDeleteDon’t waste the money on more subsidy for ZAG. Get some routes into ZAD over winter.
"Hub and spoke for short haul is dead for decades."
DeleteWow, don't tell LH & KL, both of whom make a killing on that model.
Ryanair is not discontinuing Thessaloniki. The route is just becoming summer seasonal. Flights are on sale from March to October next year.
ReplyDeleteOne more winter cut in ZAG?
DeleteThey could have tried to get British Airways to go back to year round flights.
ReplyDelete