Monday, January 16, 2017

Gulf competition heats up in EX-YU


Competition among Gulf carriers in the former Yugoslavia will grow this summer with all of the MEB3 (Middle East Big 3 - Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways) to serve the region from June. As a result, new destinations, as well as capacity and frequency increases are planned.

Qatar Airways, which was the first of the MEB3 airlines to start flights to the former Yugoslavia has announced plans to boost capacity on its services to Belgrade and Zagreb this summer and launch operations to Skopje and Sarajevo. The carrier will add a further three weekly flights, for a total of seven, to the Serbian capital starting October 1. Furthermore, the airline will deploy its Airbus A320P jet on the route, which features 132 seats, with an improved premium product boasting twelve seats with 180 degree lie-flat capability in business class. In Zagreb, the Qatari carrier will increase capacity by replacing the smaller A320 with the A321 on its morning rotation from Doha. It will maintain ten weekly services between the two cities. Starting July 17, Qatar Airways will inaugurate flights to Skopje. Initially, the service was to operate three times per week and to be launched last year but was pushed back due to an ongoing fleet shortage. However, the airline has now upped frequencies for the planned service to four per week, but is yet to put tickets on sale. Furthermore, Qatar Airways will head to Sarajevo this year as well, although the launch date has not been set. The airline sold tickets between Doha and Sarajevo last year but discontinued sales due to a lack of available jets caused by late deliveries from aircraft manufacturers.

Emirates' arrival into Zagreb this June with its wide-body Boeing 777-300, offering seats in three classes on a daily basis, will shake up the competition. The airline will face off against Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines, which currently carry 71% of all passengers flying between Croatia and the Middle East. In the last year, an estimated 330.000 passengers flew between Zagreb and markets across the Middle East, Asia and Australasia with single direction flows of around 30.000 from Zagreb to the Gulf nations, 45.000 to Far East Asia and over 50.000 to the Middle East, according to the AirVision Market Intelligence tool from Sabre Airline Solutions. Emirates believes the new flights will not only benefit travellers in Croatia, but also those in neighbouring Slovenia and even the southern regions of Hungary and Austria, making it more convenient to travel to Dubai and beyond. Scheduling means markets such as Shanghai, Beijing, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Sydney, Melbourne, the Maldives, Seychelles and Sri Lanka can all be reached within a four hour transit window in Dubai.

Etihad Airways will continue to operate flights between Abu Dhabi and Belgrade this summer with its Airbus A320 aircraft on a daily basis, as well as a second daily service between the two cities operated through its equity partner Air Serbia. Through a wide-ranging codeshare agreement with the Serbian carrier, Etihad also serves Podgorica, Ljubljana, Tivat, Banja Luka and Sarajevo within the former Yugoslavia. Last year, Etihad increased capacity on its Belgrade route from the smaller A319 to the A320 aircraft.

Other Gulf carriers serving the former Yugoslavia this summer include Flydubai and Air Arabia. Flydubai plans to operate daily flights to Sarajevo from late June, four weekly to Belgrade and two weekly to Skopje. Furthermore, the carrier will launch operations to Montenegro. "The former Yugoslavia is an important market for Flydubai. Demand for these routes remains strong as passengers are able to travel to Dubai and beyond", the carrier told EX-YU Aviation News recently. Meanwhile, Air Arabia will resume seasonal flights from Sharjah to Sarajevo starting March 16. Services will operate daily during the high season, and three times per week during other times. Recently, Sarajevo Airport said, "There are plans for new flights to the Middle East, namely Kuwait, but we are still in the early stages of negotiations. Our analysis, which is undertaken on a regular basis, shows there is certainly room to expand in this area".

180 comments:

  1. " The airline will face off against Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines, which currently carry 71% of all passangers flying between Croatia and the Middle East."

    Very interesting stat. I think Turkish Airlines will be the biggest looser here.

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    Replies
    1. So with who do the other 29% fly with? That would be interesting to know because if the majority are with Croatia Airlines via * alliance hubs then they will also feel an impact.

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    2. Probably Austrian Airlines and Lufthansa.

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    3. Emirates will create a lot of demand. They will add new pax. They will of course compete with QR and TK as they do in alle markets, but maily they will be adding around 200.000 new Pax for ZAG! There will not just be a shift from one carrier to another, but the creation of new ones which will benefit the market significantly.

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    4. Hmm... 200.000 seems a bit too optimistic.

      I remember in the 1990s when Emirates launched LCA flights with their A310 they didn't bring that many new passengers but they mostly butchered Kuwait and Gulf Air.

      A few years later Qatar launched LCA with their A320 and ended up harming EK and destroying EY.

      If Cyprus saw a limited increase in demand as a result of additional competition, what makes you think Zagreb will be any different? Not to mention that Cypriots are incomparably richer than Croats and their economy and tourism are far superior to the one of Croatia.

      I am sure there will be some new passengers as a result of lower fares but I think that number is far from 200.000.

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    5. Hmmmm - I challenge some of your comments re. Tourism between Cyprus and Croatia nemjee. Tourism numbers are growing year on year exponentially in Croatia and attracting the high end market and future foreign investments in hotels in Croatia exceeds $2b. Cyprus on the other hand is a bit 20 years ago and more of a Ryanair and easyjet destination.
      Croatians generally don't travel abroad - correct. Why would they when you are surrounded by so much beauty, so much appeal

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    6. It's not only the beauty, they are used to spend holidays in Croatia. Serbians, on the other hand, are used to go to Greece. Slovenians, the majority of them, spend their summer holidays in Croatia. But I agree, I wouldn't say that tourist product is far better in Cyprus, even if Croatia has to improve a lot.

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    7. Cyprus has about 3 million foreign visitors per year. The same as Slovenia (you read that correct). Nearly a third of them are from the UK. Although Cyprus does have 2-3 times more overnight stays than Slovenia, due to the fact that it is mostly a summer destination. Cyprus tourism data can be found here (not that impressive actually but if you want to look..)
      http://www.mof.gov.cy/mof/cystat/statistics.nsf/services_71main_en/services_71main_en?OpenForm&sub=1&sel=2

      Croatia has 13,8 million foreign visitors and over 72 million foreign overnight stays, in 2016. Set to grow to close or over 15 million in 2017. Average rate of increase from 1995 to 2016 was +586.000 per year. That rate is also on the rise, especially with the decline in Turkey, North Africa and so on.
      The list for Croatia, 2015
      https://s20.postimg.org/n50405v23/turizam1.png

      Cyprus has almost no visitors from Asia. Assuming you dont count Israel as an Asian county. Their numbers from Korea, China, Japan, Australia are negligible.

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    8. To expand on that point..visitors from the number one market in Cyprus, the UK, represent +33% all visitors in Cyprus.
      The top market in Croatia is Germany - 16,7% of all visitors in 2015.

      Cyprus is very far from being anywhere close to Croatia in anything regarding tourism

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    9. Seems that Nemjee is convinced of the contrary.

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    10. Excellent commentary guys. Yes Nemjee hasn't a clue and no insight into actual data and figures.
      Who goes to Cyprus and where exactly is it? :)

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    11. If you don't know where Cyprus is that says more about you...

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    12. Cyprus

      Population: 830.000
      Tourists: 3.000.000
      Airports: 9.000.000 pax
      Size: 9.251 km2

      Croatia

      Population: 4.253.000
      Tourists: 13.8 million
      Airports: about 7 million
      Size: 56,594 km2

      Do you see a difference?

      Also, let's take the busiest three summer months.

      There were a total of 1.129.671 tourists from Europe out of which 751.369 came from the EU.

      Then we have...
      September: 242.000 EU tourists
      October: 226.806 EU tourists
      November: 87.186 EU tourists

      How many passengers do the Croatian airports on the coast handle during this period? Mind you, the numbers above represent exclusively the tourists, not overall numbers.

      Furthermore, let me add that on average a flight from Europe to Cyprus is between 3 and 5 hours. The living standard on the island is much higher than in Croatia which means that generally it's harder for Cyprus to remain competitive when compared to places like Greece or Croatia. Not to mention that Cyprus is an island which means you have no other option than to fly in.

      Cyprus has been addressing the issue of seasonality since 2004 which is why their results are incomparably better.

      Now... if we look at Asia, there were 242,512 tourists in the first 11 months out of which 27.139 came from the Gulf. If we include December then we can see that Cyprus has almost the same Asian demand as Zagreb.
      The Chinese will be coming to Cyprus this year which is why Cobalt will be launching their own flights using the A330.

      As for Australia, there are between 40.000 and 80.000 Cypriots down there which all use Emirates and Qatar to get home.

      Finally, another parameter we can use is the number of airlines based in each country.

      Croatia:

      Croatia Airlines (ZAG)
      Ryanair (seasonal)
      ECA (?)

      Cyprus:

      Cobalt (LCA)
      Aegean (LCA)
      TUS (LCA)
      Blueair (LCA)
      Ryanair (PFO)

      If we look at the numbers proportionally, taking into consideration the size of both countries, then things are quite different.

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    13. Croatia is a giant in terms of tourist arrivals compared to Cyprus. The only difference is that virtually all of those arriving in Cyprus do so by plane, whereas Tourists to Croatia arrive by Car, Bus, Train, Ship and Planes. The only meaningful means of transport to reach Cyprus is air. The same goes for Greece, where I personally have never seen a European go by Car or Bus, let alone the train.

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    14. I will also add that in 2016 the biggest increases were from the following countries:

      Russia (+47%), the United Kingdom (+13%), Greece (+14.5%) and Israel (+47%).

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    15. Anon 11.24

      Balkanites, Hungarians, Slovaks, Poles... all go by car/bus to Greece. It's not uncommon. Naturally if they are heading to places like Rhodes, Crete... then flying is the only option.

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    16. @ AnonymousJanuary 16, 2017 at 11:24 AM

      Are you serious? No one going to Greece by car? Check your facts to see how the majority of Hungarians, Czechs, Romanians, Bulgarians, Serbians and even Poles go to Greece. Are you seriously trying to compare Greece and Croatia in the tourism sector?

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    17. Your point was that the Cypriot tourism sector is far more superior than the one in Croatia.
      It is not.
      It is on par if you look at foreign visitors per capita:
      Cyprus 3,6
      Croatia 3,3
      If we however look at foreign visitors per capita in France..France is as huge as Tom Cruise compared to Croatia and Cyprus..and Italy, and Germany, and the UK and so on..

      And airports in Croatia handled 8,2 mil this year

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    18. Yet no one was speaking of France.

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    19. Cause the per capita argument is moronic
      That is my point
      France has over 60 million residents and over 80 million foreign visitors. Per capita nowhere near Croatia/Cyprus. Is the Cypriot tourism sector far more superior than the one in France?
      Look at some island nations. Mostly only charters fly there, yet their p/c are off the chart.

      "If we look at the numbers proportionally"
      That was your point, look relative to the size. Im saying that that point is stupid

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    20. Then exclude the number of tourists that visit Paris and just look at those that head to the coast in the south of the country. In such a way we would be comparing apples to apples.

      Also, don't forget that Cyprus' geographical location is far less favorable than the one of Croatia. For starters, Cyprus can't count on Turkey, a massive market of 74 million people That's as if Italy was off limits for Croatia. It's far more challenging to be a tourist destination in the Middle East than in the Balkans.

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    21. Not interrupting your argument, can any of you elaborate how exactly will EK create additional passengers to ZAG? I see some residents of Dubai coming for a visit, but other than that? Those who would need to connect in DXB already have had this option with FlyDubai or via DOH or AUH. So who are these new passengers who currently find it difficult to reach ZAG but will see it all change once the EK flights start?

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    22. Nemjee, have you been recently during the summer in Croatia?

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    23. I guess you meant IST not AUH.

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    24. Mnogo zavisti u toj konverzaciji. Nek susjedu crkne krava varijanta. Sve to ja kuzim, biti ce isto tako kad netko najavi letove BEG Kina. ;)

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    25. Where exactly? If I may ask...

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    26. @NemjeeJanuary 16, 2017 at 10:22 AM

      First off, Cypriot economy is on life support cause it is so messed up. 2nd Cyprus has very limited growth potential and they only attract tourism/leisure and ex-pat travel, very little business travel.

      Two of Cypriot airports cater exclusively to LCCs and holiday companies.

      Zagreb alone has more people than entire Cyprus, Zagreb region (County) has population of 1.2 million.

      Croatian economy has recovered and is growing rather well in past two years, this year projections are 3.5%, could be 3.75%.

      Cyprus is about to go bankrupt. Sure pays in Croatia are slightly lower than in Cyprus, an avrage NET pay in Croatia is 5870 kuna per month, gross 8100 Kuna, in Zagreb an average of 6700 kuna and 8700 Kuna gross. 1 Euro = 7.5 kuna.

      Emirates has chosen Zagreb based on market trends, looked at DlyDubai performance and Qatar's performance which is doing well in Zagreb.

      If anyone would suffer as a result of Emirates coming to Zagreb it'll be the Turkish, they'll increase their frequency to 14 weekly flights from June, but Turkey is no longer safe and stable country, fewer people will chose Turkish over Qatar or Emirates.

      I think Turkish will most likely be squeezed down to 6 weekly flights by this time next year. Qatar and Emirates benefiting from the Turkish Downfall.

      Lufthansa and other western carriers don't need to worry about Emirates, plenty of fish in the sea.

      Croatia is expecting 17.5 million tourists this year, Zagreb 1.5 million.

      From Asia, ME and Oceania:

      350-400 000 South Koreans
      300-400 000 Chinese (HK, Taiwan included)
      200-250 000 Japanese
      60-100 000 Malaysia and Singapore
      150-175 000 Australia
      50-70 000 New Zealand
      40-50 000 Indonesia/ASEAN
      40-60 000 - Qatar, UEA, Oman, Saudi, Kuwait.
      100-120 000 - Israel
      60-70 000 - Turkey
      20-40 000 - Jordan

      I guess you could say just Tourists there's plenty of room for grow, lets not include ex-pats and people who actually work in ME where number of Croatian and EU companies are based and some 20 000 Croats work.

      As I've said, Emirates will do just fine, I am worried they've sent B773, this is way too large for Zagreb, and first flights might not yield the results, or winter for that matter, but longer term the route will be profitable and Emirates might even send an A380 from time to time if demand is high enough.

      Croatia is becoming major tourist host spot, as 4 major films are being filmed in Croatia this year, and GOTs final season will also be filmed in Croatia. Massive advertising for Croatia for many years to come.

      And yes new film productions will undoubtedly come in coming years now that Croatia is seen as good filming location.

      Future is bright, lets cheer about the fact region is peaceful and everyone is benefiting from it.









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    27. AnonymousJanuary 16, 2017 at 12:13 PM

      I've been to Dubrovnik and several times to Rovinj as we have a house there.

      Anon 12.15

      Huh? Who exactly is on life support? Let me inform you that Cyprus concluded its cooperation with the IMF two weeks ahead of schedule and the country has been out of recession for a while now. Actually they have registered their sixth constitutive quarter of growth.

      'Two of Cypriot airports cater exclusively to LCCs and holiday companies. '

      Huh? You can easily check this online so no need for me to even bother.

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    28. Am I wrong or are the coastal airports mostly served by LCCs and tourist airlines?

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    29. Pre izvesnog vremena ovde je napisano da su Bosanci najbrojniji turisti u HR. Da li je to istina?

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    30. Anonymus 12:47, ahahahahaha, to je jedan jako dobar vic. Ubaci najbrojniji turisti u Hrvatskoj, sve ce ti biti jasno.

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    31. Nemjee, napisao si "their tourism is FAR superior". Jednostavno nije istina.

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    32. "Najviše je bilo Nijemaca, potom Talijana, a iza njih redom po broju noćenja idu Slovenci, Poljaci, Austrijanci, Česi, Mađari, Slovaci, Nizozemci te naposljetku Britanci". "Grad Zagreb privlači najviše stranaca i to najviše Koreanaca, Amerikanaca i Nijemaca".
      http://www.apartmanija.hr/zajednica/aktualno/turizam-u-brojkama

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    33. If EK wanted to create additional demand they would not fly to an airport handling barely over 2.5 million pax but to SPU/DBV seasonal, which handle on a summer day as much as BEG or SOF. This is only a way to butcher the competition and a capacity overkill, without clear winner at the end.

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    34. "Pre izvesnog vremena ovde je napisano da su Bosanci najbrojniji turisti u HR. Da li je to istina?"

      Ne, Bosanci su najbrojniji državljani HR. Bitna razlika :)

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    35. @AэrologicJanuary 16, 2017 at 2:12 PM

      And you'd say that, wouldn't you.

      Jealousy rears its ugly head.

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    36. You guys are killing me with this cro cyp comparison, give it a rest rest. Udaviše ljudi.

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    37. Yes, i'd be very jealous at EK serving Split and Dubrovnik seasonal and making some commercial sense at a time of failing passenger figures and yields.

      Let's also not forget that even MLA/LCA are served as a triangle route and that there isn't a smaller airport in the Euro-Mediterranean region and beyond served by Emirates.

      You do understand that Zagreb handles less than 180.000 passengers in December and that it ain't exactly a tourist mecca on its own? So doesn't that tells you something, other than my 'jealousy' of who knows what?

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    38. Why would that be a criteria? Why the hell is it important how many pax an airport is currently serving? They will be launching the flights because there is demand. If everyone thought lik you no airport would ever grow.

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    39. Both CY and HR are nothing compared to Greece. Sorry. it's the truth. No one does it like them.

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    40. TK will kill EK to DBV because they will offer one stop flights from Asia.

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    41. Because it indicates a certain form of demand and catchment area. We were hearing how passenger numbers would grow once Croatia enters EU - it didn't happen. We were told passenger numbers would grow drastically once Croatia finishes its restructuring - it didn't happen either. So now the new mantra. You're saying Emirates alone is gonna increase ZAG's numbers by 12% based on new demand? Even the passengers FZ they'll replace used to be carrying?? Wishful thinking at best. Most likely it'll cannibalize on existing demand and try to force QR away. You do realize that even FZ had trouble filling their planes off-season? For God's sake, EK failed even in Kiev and has trouble in both BUD and WAW.

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    42. Didn't BA and KL also reduce ZAG this winter?

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    43. BA yes, KL not. Aerologic you want to say that Emirates does not know what they are doing?

      Maybe you should become CEO of Emirates now when Clark will be gone. Tray to contact them. I am sure they will read your professional ideas and perfect CV.

      Luckily we have so big expert here that even can instruct Emirates how to do the job.

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    44. No, what i'm saying is that they probably got big subsidies and that most likely they will be able to chase the competition but not create additional demand which was already well covered by FZ/QR. Also, what i'm saying, is that SPU/DBV might have been a much better choice.

      Thanks for the advice, i'll consider it.

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    45. So Aerologic, if you claim that Emirates' move is wrong and will fail, than it means you also claim that you know every aspect of this business (from network planning to jeopolitical affairs, revenue management, procurement etc.) better than Emirates' management, right?

      Cause if you don't, why would you insist heavily on this failure idea? Well, logic says that you need to have different motives to raise such a claim. Like emotions leading to irrational inferences.

      So, which one is it?

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    46. Anon 4:54, apparently same thought with 10 mins difference :)

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    47. Well, it would not be the first time Emirates failed on a route. They failed in Kiev right next to me which can't be compared to Zagreb as a market and i don't think they were more stupid in 2014 and didn't do their homework as implied.

      In a time of falling revenues, opening such a low-profile route with such daily capacity is risky at best. Besides, let's not forget the number of passengers ZAG yearly handles and the fact that FZ wasn't exactly thriving in Zagreb either. After all analysis, it all boils down to a gut feeling. You know, a man should always trust his instincts.

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    48. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    49. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    50. Vrlo je zanimljivo razmisljanje pojedinaca ovde svaki put kad dodje nova aviokompanija u ZAG pisu se price kao da ce da kompanija doneti 1 milion novi putnika .
      EK jeste ogromna Aviokompanija ali nisu ni oni sposobni to da urade u ZAG .
      Ja ipak mislim da ce letovi smanjiti u zimskoj sezoni da nece biti 7 pw ali bice zanimljivo videti .
      Odlicno je sto ste se vratili Aэrologic =D
      INN-NS

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    51. Incredible how bitter some people are, just because of Emirates coming to ZAG!

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    52. Da je kojim slucajem EK izabrao BEG, citali bi posve drugaciju pricu.

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    53. And after a period of very calm comments, INN is bitter again. And he is claiming that EK will open BEG too. Because of a huge demand? What do you think of this, Aerologic? Is there a huge demand in BEG for EY, ASL, EK, and Qatar?

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    54. BEG handles almost 5 million passengers per year and is in a much better place to cover the entire Balkan peninsula, should Emirates choose to serve it. Belgrade is still served by:

      - AUH daily Etihad (952 weekly seats)
      - AUH daily Air Serbia (896 weekly seats)
      - DOH 4x weekly becoming daily (1008 weekly seats)
      - DXB 4X weekly (756 weekly seats)
      - SAW 4x weekly
      - IST 3x daily

      ...or 3612 seats connecting directly to the Gulf, without counting TK and PC which isn't flying to ZAG.

      That looks much more as an airport ready to accommodate EK.

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    55. Omg! What nonsense is that!
      Ref EK, ZAG may cover most parts of the tourism mecca in ex yu with Adriatic coast. But surely BEG can't and doesn't. Also ZAG covers almost whole Slovenia and parts of Southern AT, higher yielding areas also compared to parts that BEG could cover in terms of such a big airline.

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    56. In the same way it is covering it now for the other destinations?

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    57. Sooo much jealousy, hahaha! To the point where discussion went into excuses as to why Cyprus can't attract as many tourists as Croatia.
      The demand is strong, the growth figures are strong. Zagreb is definitely going from 2,76 mill to over 3 million this year. July and August alone will probably add 200,000. pax. Overall...3,1 mill is realistic. Possibly more.

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    58. O my good. Emirates coose Zagreba. Because there is a reason for that! ZAG is better option than BEG. Get over it.

      Kiev was one and only terminate route for Emirates. All other were stopped because of war, and Kiev is not far away from war also, wasn't it?

      Subventions in ZAG for Emirates? Really???? Can not be done. EU does not allow that. Not the way Serbia is doing it to Etihad. Here in EU we can not use those methods.

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    59. Alen Šćuric PurgerJanuary 16, 2017 at 11:42 PM

      Aerologic you should read my article on Tango 6 tomorrow about Emirates in Zagreb, facts and numbers which support their choice. I hope you will not have hard attack.

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    60. Purger, Emirates are being subsidized to start flying to Zagreb. This is legal in the EU, Ryan is getting subsidies, Hungary is paying Wizz to fly to Sarajevo Podgorica etc. Nothing wrong with EK getting some help.

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    61. BEG has more airlines, more destinations and more frequency to ME than ZAG:

      BEG will have JU, EY, FZ and QR. ZAG will have EK and QR. BEG:ZAG 4:2, more choices for passengers at BEG

      BEG has AUH, DXB and DOH. ZAG will have DXB and DOH. BEG:ZAG 3:2, more destination choices at BEG.

      BEG will have more frequences: AUH 14pw, DOH 7pw, DXB 4pw, total of 25pw. ZAG will have DXB 7pw, DOH 7pw, total of 14pw. BEG:ZAG 25:14, more frequency means more choices and less wait time for BEG passengers.

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    62. Zagreb does have a incentive program to attract new airlines. It has been discussed here before and is available to all carriers who want to start flights to Zagreb. What we don't know is who approached who first. Quite possible that Emirates see's some decent potential in Croatia via Zagreb as there are more than 1 million people from Asia and Australia / NZ who travel to Croatia yearly. How these people organise their itineraries now could have Croatia as their first and or final destination in Europe creating a new market for their service. Even though this option was already available, Emirates is still more known globally than some of those other airlines mentioned so does hold some more "game changer" power.

      Zagreb is also much better connected to the rest of Croatia and the region, especially year round. This is why Dubrovnik and Split would not have been a realistic option for them compared to Zagreb.

      Personally I think the summer will be very successful for them with not too much of an impact on Qatar. I know a few people who have already booked flights with Qatar this year.

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    63. Airlines who offer connections to Croatia via Europe will see more of an impact from this Emirates service in my opinion.

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    64. Alen Šćuric PurgerJanuary 17, 2017 at 8:54 AM

      ZAG has 18 flights (10 Qatar not 7, and 1 Korean). BEG would have 7 Qatar from October, so in summer it will be 18:22 ZAG:BEG

      But still ZAG has 4580 seats weekly, and BEG just 3294 seats to Asia.

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    65. Yes Q400..I agree. But I would add Turkish. None of them though, in my opinion will suffer major hits. And for those who are afraid for Belgrade Airport and Etihad, I don't think it'll have such a big negative impact there either. It could even help them, because it'll force EY to respond accordingly.
      As for Qatar Airways, they've proven themselves as a very adaptable, flexible company. And the way they maintain premium service at affordable prices is seriously impressive. They are keeping 10 flights per week with A321 on the morning rotation, which is awesome, since their strong presence will definitely force Emirates to lower the prices. Also this will be a huge magnet for other carriers to arrive, for various reasons.

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    66. Hi Alen - when is your article on Tango 6 coming out (today?)....I am anxious to read it... I enjoy your analyses...

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    67. I'll just repeat what I've wrote like a week ago: Partner was supposed to fly KUL-DOH-ZAG on stand by around Jan 9, but couldn't get a ticket till yesterday, which was also risky, which turned out right: instead of morning flight from DOH to ZAG, he will only be able to board the afternoon flight because it was completely booked. So much about about lack of demand out of high season. Especially in January.

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    68. Dear Purger, yes, i am having a HARD attack, especially after reading your English and the list of airports in Europe where Emirates still doesn't fly confirming my point.

      https://scontent.fhen1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t34.0-12/16128651_1802815893307018_17586374_n.jpg?oh=39963d62d4dda665c8cf95f1e6ae242d&oe=588067D7

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  2. Nice to see Qatar finally going daily to Belgrade. I wonder if we might see Etihad send the A330 to BEG this summer. Their flights are constantly packed, even in winter time.

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    1. Doubt it... first we would have to see their A321. They have good loads on the A320 but nothing too phenomenal.

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    2. Ah yes. Completely forgot they have A321s in the fleet. Last time I flew with them was in late November from Belgrade. Plane was full, 2 or 3 seats free in business class. Return flight was packed in both classes. Appreciate the fact they always put a few Serbian crew members on the flights.

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    3. Etihad definitely has great loads but I fear it's still to early to think of the A321, at least during the winter months. Summer is a bit different.

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    4. It's really interesting how people here judge loads based on a single flight. And this happens all around ex Yu.

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    5. No no I just wrote about the loads on my last flight but they are generally very good and this is widely known. Completely agree with you that you can't pass judgment based on single flight. But I have also flown this route many times and so have my friends at different times of the year. Not sure what Air Serbia's loads on this route are.

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    6. I fly JU between BEG and AUH several times a year.

      JU loads dramatically change in the seasons. Mid June to Mid September, it is almost impossible to find an empty seat. JU initially struggled in loads, having as low as 34 if I remembered right on one of the flights I took, back 2 years ago. Last year, the lightest load I had was just under 60 pax (Jan 2016). However in Feb 2016 had a full flight.

      I think that EY doesn't market the JU flights well. However, JU does have an average product compared to the competition. Most JU regional connections don't work both ways ie: SJJ, BNX, OTP, SOF, VAR, SKP, OHD, DBV, SPU, TIV, PUY, TIA.

      These connections is where JU can really improve their loads.

      Delete
  3. It will be very interesting this year @ ZAG.
    I believe that Qatar Airways will downsize their operations to daily.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why should they? EK will craete additional demand, which was currently not served. Prices will go down and mor Pax will fly.

      Delete
    2. Turkish so far at ZAG is doing the opposite. Back to 14pw from the summer

      Delete
    3. Double daily was the plan from the beginning.

      Delete
    4. The morning TK flight is an A321 in the whole summer timetable, an increase against the previous year!

      Delete
    5. The difference between the A321 and the B738 is not that big.

      B738: 151-165-189
      A321: 178-180-194

      They will proly use the middle ones, 165 vs 180.

      Delete
    6. @AnonymousJanuary 16, 2017 at 9:09 AM
      It will be very interesting this year @ ZAG.
      I believe that Qatar Airways will downsize their operations to daily.

      Turkish might, not Qatar.

      Qatar can afford to lower it prices a fair bit, only reason why Qatar's prices are where they are, cause there's little or no competition.

      Emirates will only partially cover the market anyway.

      Chinese are coming, and Korean Air will need to up its game too. 2017 will indeed be quite interesting, I predicted originally 3.07 million pax for 2017, now I need to revise that to 3.2 million.

      Delete
    7. Anon at 2:45 PM. I say 3,1 million. But wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being more. If that JFK flight happens soon enough, then for sure. Don't forget that EK will be flying only half a year this year.
      Exciting times at any rate!

      Delete
  4. It's really interesting. About 4-5 years ago you couldn't have imagined the likes of Qatar, Emirates and Etihad flying to ex-Yu. Very good for the region.

    ReplyDelete
  5. So 330.000 divided by 365 comes out about 450 passenger per day flying one way. When you divide the market between LH, OS, TK and QR one realized EK will have to bring its own passengers otherwise there might be problems filling those B777s.

    Summer could work but it will be interesting to see how they perform when the slow months come. I still think a B777 is an overkill but let's see what happens in the end.


    As for QR and BEG, great to see them introduce daily flights. Let's hope flydubai increases BEG to 5/week soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EK fleet only consists of A380's and B777 variants. They have a smaller B777-200LR But this is for longer routes and defeats the purpose to deploy on the shorter ZAG flights. It would be good if they had the B787 because this would be a more realistic capacity for a daily year round service.

      Delete
    2. The number of Asian, Australian and NZ visitors Emirates is targeting which travel to Croatia is closer to or even over 1 million per year with these numbers increasing. I'm sure a daily Emirates 777-300 will encourage some of these travelers make Zagreb their first and or last stop while traveling in Europe especially if Croatia will be on their planned itinerary.

      So I guess what I'm trying to say is that you cannot look at the 330000 figure as the market share but triple that amount and you will have a true potential figure at this time which Emirates can take a share from.

      1 million-ish divided by 365 is nearly 1400 one way passengers per day.

      Delete
    3. Even this summer they will have a decent LF I believe but I too think they will struggle during the slower winter months.

      Delete
    4. Let's see what happens in a few months. Emirates have a good sales team and their brand is global which definitely helps them.

      Delete
  6. I don't understand that no one is interested in Ljubljana. Surely if Fly Dubai believes it can fill a B737-800 to Podgorica it could do the same with Ljubljana. What's the catch?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. With EK now starting flights to Zagreb there is little chance for FZ to go to Ljubljana like their CCO said a few days ago to ex-Yu. I assume Emirates chose Zagreb among other things because they are also counting on a whole lot of tourists flying from Asia and Australia onward to places like Dubrovnik and Split. This could also hurt TK's Dubrovnik flights. Fewer and fewer people are willing to transfer through Istanbul Ataturk Airport for various reasons.

      Delete
    2. I know it's weird but your thought of "fewer people are willing to transfer through IST" is false. IST O&D traffic decreases but number of transfer passengers grow. Apparently connecting passenger traffic has not been affected at all, thanks to TK's wide network.

      Delete
    3. I think the growth was backed by a strong first half of the year, and have fallen in the second half, with the end of year being in a small plus. Just as we saw with JU, who initially showed a drop in numbers, growing in the second half, leaving 2016 with a small increase in pax numbers.

      Remember, TK have dropped a lot frequencies and have parked tens of aircraft. The past week has been a PR night mare for TK, going by the way they handled the weather situation. Hopefully all goes well, but news of more terrorist acts in Turkey is not bringing them more pax.

      Delete
    4. +the last-night's crash in FRU...

      Delete
    5. -which was an ACT airlines aircraft and crew...

      Delete
    6. Operated by TK standards on a TK flight.

      Delete
  7. It's too late now but OU should have launched flights to Dubai years ago. It has the plane and could have run the flight during the night (similar to how Jat Airways use to fly some 5 years ago). I'm sure they would have done well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. With the kaputt yields u get to DXB, def not a good idea
      Btw EK offers MXPJFK at 365 CHF all-in in Switzerland

      Delete
  8. Does anyone know the load factor of gulf airlines on any of the ex-yu routes? If you have some info please post it.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I found this, not sure if it is wishful thinking or relevant at all

    EMIRATES AIRLINE SLOVENIA, LJUBLJANA; Every day, over six continents, Emirates helps its passengers discover the world in award-winning safety and comfort. Soon Emirates airlines will fly from Ljubljana as well.
    http://www.diplomatic-corporate-services.si/services/travel-transportation/airlines/emirates-airline-slovenia-ljubljana.php

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wishful thinking by our current government.

      Delete
    2. Makes no sense now whatsoever.

      Delete
    3. They'll bring the bus service back probably.

      Delete
  10. It's great that Croatians no longer need a visa for the UAE. I hope the Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Montenegro follow. The visa is an unnecessary and expensive hassle.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Especially considering UAE nationals don't need a visa for those countries but need it everywhere else in Europe including Croatia.

      Delete
    2. UAE nationals don't need visa for EU countries.

      Delete
    3. Oops you are right. For some reason I was certain they did. Must have mixed them up with someone.

      Delete
    4. It's also great that Serbian citizens don't need visa for China, and vice versa. I do hope that Croatia follows.

      With two direct destinations in China being linked to Belgrade this year, we will definitely see a nice boost in toursm numbers from that country.

      Delete
    5. But those tourists don't necessarily need EK to fly them to Croatia. Tourists from all over the world have been flocking to Croatia on direct flights, charters, transfer flights... for years back. Even those who live in Dubai have had FZ at their disposal.

      So what dramatic change the EK flights will bring to all the tourists? How will it make easier for them to reach Croatia (except maybe in more affordable prices)?

      Delete
  11. It will be interesting to see how Turkish, Qatar and Emirates will fare at ZAG. Probably overkill at ZAG at this moment..3-4 years from now the demand from markets in Asia (excluding China which is in a world of its own) and Australia/New Zealand will at least double, but now this looks like Emirates wants to "kick" someone out

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The thing about the MEB3 is that they are very reluctant to cancel or pull out of a route. They would continue flying somewhere even with a loss just so they don't loose face. Emirates' average annual load factor has fallen beneath 80% this year for the first time so of course reality is changing a bit but still. Let's see what the situation will be like in summer 2018.

      Delete
    2. There is a significant increase in capacity of all airlines to the Croatian coast this year because of increased demand. Why would you assume that this is not true for other markets as well, which TK, QR and EK cannot serve? So no overkill, just the sign of increase interest in Croatia.

      Delete
    3. I still don't understand how they will fill the plane in the slower months. Any idea? Don't think tourists.

      Delete
    4. Ever been to Plitvice Lakes in November or February? Hordes of Asian tourists flock that place. Their number will just increase.

      Delete
    5. But those tourists don't necessarily need EK to fly them to Croatia. Tourists from all over the world have been flocking to Croatia on direct flights, charters, transfer flights... for years back. Even those who live in Dubai have had FZ at their disposal.

      So what dramatic change the EK flights will bring to all the tourists? How will it make easier for them to reach Croatia (except maybe in more affordable prices)?

      Delete
    6. @11:09
      ...or Postojna cave, Bled, Ljubljana, Piran....

      Delete
    7. We have to ask directly to EK. They obviously don't know what are they doing.

      Delete
  12. And LJU is relying on Adria. Bravo, way to go Fraport and Mr. Skobir!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And who do you recommend they rely upon? Someone is forbidden to use LJU?

      Delete
    2. How about anyone else?

      Delete
    3. LJU needs LCCs to Spain, Italy, etc. Not JP's connection to middle of nowhere in warzone (Ukraine) for 500 EUR return.

      Delete
    4. What is wrong with JP?

      Delete
    5. FYI there is no war-zone in Ukraine in a 500km radius from Kiev and ~1000km from the city they'll be serving. Most of Ukraine leads a peaceful life, just like Serbia and Kosovo.

      Delete
    6. ...or maybe you'd think twice about flying via DXB because of the situation in Yemen?

      Delete
  13. With the unexpected and surprising launch of EK flights to ZAG I wonder what ZAG airports had next install for us?
    I've heard rumours that UA are considering flights and linking up with an extensive codeshare arrangement with OU to a number of Balkan cities. Let's hope this comes to fruition

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. United has no intention of expanding beyond what they already serve in Europe because of Lufthansa. That's why they don't fly ORD-WAW for example.

      Delete
    2. This is total non-sense. They don't fly ORD-WAW because there is hardly any premium demand and they have a good partnership with LOT to cater for these flights. This has nothing to do with Lufthansa. UA can do whatever they want.

      Delete
    3. I was told this by a high ranking official at UA. I think he might know a thing or to more than you do.

      Delete
    4. A high ranking official from UA? I'm thinking you must have bumped into a flight attendant in the street on an overnight in some far flung exotic destination?

      Delete
    5. Why do you have to insult someone to make your point? God you people can't accept differences of opinion.

      Delete
    6. Exactly, we were having shots of tequila in a shady bar in the suburbs of Managua.

      Delete
  14. I'm guessing nemjee that UA can see the opportunities in ZAG and beyond. Daily flights all year with a mix of 767 400 and 757 depending on season and loads.
    Solid competition for JU and BEG. A much better alternative to an inconsistent schedule and inferior terminal perhaps?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UA was looking at launching flights from ORD to both Krakow and Warsaw but they were asked by LH not to do it so as not to create unnecessary competition. That's one of the reasons why they have limited cooperation with airlines such as LO and TK.
      LH even asked them not to look at VIE because OS is still 'not strong enough...' whatever they meant by that.

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. These are all European destinations served by UA with pax numbers in mil. Only Shannon is smaller than ZAG. The gap between ZAG and others seems too large. And they don't fly to Istanbul, Moscow, Vienna, Oslo, Copenhagen.. at all.

      LHR 76
      CDG 66
      AMS 64
      FRA 61
      MAD 50
      BCN 44
      MUC 42
      FCO 40
      DUB 28
      ZRH 28
      MAN 26
      ARN 25
      BRU 22
      TXL 21
      ATH 20
      LIS 20
      MXP 19
      GVA 17
      HAM 16
      BHX 12
      EDI 12
      GLA 9
      VCE 9
      BFS 5
      SNN 2

      Delete
    4. Airlines fly to destinations because of demand - not because there is a nice terminal or not...

      Delete
    5. Dear Djivo, thanks for the efforts listing these destinations. Have you heard that EK recently announced daily flights to ZAG? So I wonder how the same statistic looks like for EK? Can you please list the European destinations served by EK, with pax numbers in mil., so that we can have an idea about capability of ZAG?

      Delete
    6. Could someone post figures of that?

      Delete
    7. Here, this is the list of all EK destinations in Europe with pax numbers in mil.

      LHR 76
      CDG 66
      AMS 64
      FRA 61
      IST 60
      MAD 50
      BCN 44
      LGW 43
      MUC 42
      FCO 40
      CPH 29
      DME 29
      DUB 28
      ZRH 28
      MAN 26
      OSL 26
      ARN 25
      DUS 23
      VIE 23
      BRU 22
      ATH 20
      LIS 20
      MXP 19
      GVA 17
      HAM 16
      LED 13
      WAW 13
      BHX 12
      NCE 12
      PRG 12
      BUD 11
      LYS 10
      GLA 9
      VCE 9
      BLQ 7
      LCA 7
      NCL 6
      MLA 5
      ZAG 3

      Delete
    8. Very much appreciated, thank you.

      Delete
    9. I think this ends all discussion.

      Delete
    10. I wouldn't rule out anything at this point..if last week somebody said that EK is coming in daily to ZAG, he would be called an idiot, but here it is...obviously airport pax size is not the single metric here, is it. So don't be so firm in saying yes, no...be samrter now and say everything is possible.

      Delete
    11. Of course. Emirates is in Zagreb! That shows potentials of Zagreb and how companies do believe in it. Not just Emirates, but also Air Transat, ČSA, KLM, Air France, British, Iberia, Brussels, Swiss... all those which does not fly to Belgrade... There are so many of them, aren't they...

      Delete
    12. Covek objavljuje naduvane podatke. Ni sa EK necete imati 3 miliona.

      Delete
    13. So? Doednt change the fact that EK still chose to launch it. Why do you have so many problems acknowledging that one more airline could come to ZAG regardless of your interpretation of data? I know this Ek announcement hurt, but come on..

      Delete
    14. LoL Anon 11:36 ti si neki komicar?Duhovit?Sta?Pazi sad:Pegasus, Tunisair, Belavia, Swiss (tesko se hvalisati sa necim sto ZAG nema al oky, jedva sezonski, a pogledaj timetable Swissov za BEG),Transavia, Wizz Air, EasyJet, Vueling , Etihad ,Elinair, Tarom, Aegean, Israir,Montenegro Airlines, Norwegian, Alitalia ima ih tako mnogo zar ne?Zadnji anon +10000
      Nije lepo kad se rugas necemu, pa sta sto imate EK nije to sad neki razlog za toliko slavlje ZAG nece doziveti veliki porast putnika bez LCC ili jakog nacionalnog prevoznika (koga nema ali oky, bitno je da se hvalis).E sad svetlucav terminal ne znaci nista, niti ce zbog njega putnici da se stvori odjednom kao wauuu terminal ajmo sad na ZAG svi.Zagreb je daleko od neke turisticke destinacije s kojom se mozes diciti.Ipak BEG ima 5m (4.9m znam ne moras odmah da se bacas) , a ZAG 2.7m i opet necete imati 3m. Smiri hormoncice.Pozdrav iz Beograda.

      Delete
    15. AnonymousJanuary 16, 2017 at 11:36 PM
      Beogradu i ne trebaju kompanije ČSA,KLM,Air France, British kada Air Serbia već pokriva te destinacij uglavnom 2 puta dnevno a sa KLM, Air France i BA ima i code share.

      Delete
    16. Potpuno se slazem sa Vasim misljenjem.Ali nekima se to ne moze objasniti.

      Delete
    17. Guess Whoo, interesantno kako si se povukao kad je izašao članak o Emiratesu u Zagrebu, nisi baš objektivan. mogu samo zamisliti tvoju reakciju kad si pročitao vijest o dolasku EK haha

      Delete
    18. Hahahaha...

      1. Zagreb ima Norwegian i Vueling.

      2. Ti stvarno uspoređuješ Transaviu, Erlinar, Tarom, Montenegro, Israir, Belaviu... sa Air France, British, Iberiom, KLM-om???? Vic godine. Hahahahaha....

      3. Emirates je u Zagrebu. To sve govori!

      Delete
    19. I'll try to stay constructive and positive...and provide several arguments why ZAG's 2,8 million pax is not the only indication of the airport/destination variable to measure airport/destination success...
      So, while BEG does have more connections and pax than ZAG, on the other hand ZAG clearly has "better quality" passengers and airlines serving it...BA, KLM, AF, Iberia, Brusseles, now EK... This is especially impressive given that ZAG's terminal was a *hit hole, lowering the standards of service by far...Zagreb as a destination has about 20% more tourists than Belgrade, and also better quality tourists...it is a capital of a country with 15,6 mil tourists (13,8 foreign) in 2016. Zagreb alone will have 1.15 mil tourists this year, Belgrade perhaps 900k...ZAG airline prices arehigh, service was bad, while on the other hand there is a tourist destination product in place. Zagreb is a destination on its own, now it has the Advent, its "own product" which creates a whole different sets of motives for arrival, as opposed to transfering on a way down to the coast. It has a successful medical tourism (dental), solid conference tourism, Plitvice Lakes is about 150 km away, which is a huge magnet. Austria, Slovenia are near...high yielding markets...yet it lacks LCC, not because there is demand, but because they are being postponed on purpose to set the ground for more prior carriers. ZAG has in 3 years attracted a nice group of legacies: Brusseles, KLM, ČSA, LOT, Swiss, Air Transat, Air Serbia, Emirates...plus 1 x LCC (Monarch). I know more will step in, just not now yet... It's "demand" is not over inflated with super low LCC prices or ASL prices...Not saying this is wrong, I congratulate Serbia and BEG for stepping up with their game, very smart and bold. However, this just means that it's time for ASL to work on its product, and Belgrade on its destination product which they are doing very nice. There will be growth in BEG, but it all depends on a level to which a destination product will be developing. Transfer pax are easily taken away, all is needed is a different player or players... :)

      Delete
    20. Airlines launch routes based on potential for growth and profit, not on the number of pax an airport already has. And Emirates clearly chose Zagreb and at least partially explained their decision. I think they know what they are doing, unlike some people here who can't deal with Belgrade not getting everything, it's so transparent. No need to feel so insecure.
      As for UA...I would say no. I'd expect a European airline to be connecting Zagreb & NYC, which is the only thing they've announced so far in regards to those negotiations, but after this, who knows.

      Delete
    21. @Anon 12:07

      The figures are NOT inflated, just rounded. It is very unfair for you to say so.

      ZAG had 2.766.087 pax in 2016–rounding it to 3 mil does not change any relation to other airports listed.

      Delete
    22. Anon 7:52 Plakao sam danima zakljucan u sobi, strasno me pogodilo.

      Delete
  15. Thoughts on possibility of EY opening ZAG now? Any theoretical possibility in your opinion?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Same chances as EK opening BEG.

      Delete
    2. Chances of EK opening BEG are much higher, it will come eventually just as with OTP, SOF and others.

      Delete
  16. Do you think that EK will look for a code share agreement in ZAG? Easyjet? Could be if you consider ZAG owners.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Bilo bi odlicno kad bi EY poceo slati 789 ili A330 kao odgovor na QR i EK posto bi tako oni zajedno sa ASL ostali na vodecoj poziciji u LYBE.
    A takodje se nadam sto nije vrlo ne moguce da ce EK takodje uspostaviti letove za BEG pa i sa stop overom u OTP-BEG.
    INN-NS

    ReplyDelete
  18. OT

    Ryanair has just informed its passengers that their Osijek-London route will be suspended.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Meh... hopefully EW and W6 have more luck.

      Delete
    2. It's not because of bad loads or yields

      http://www.osijek031.com/osijek.php?topic_id=65661

      Delete
    3. I wonder if the route could have worked without subventions.

      Delete
  19. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  20. OT - looks like things have taken a bad turn at YM.. http://www.blic.rs/vesti/svet/crna-gora-premijer-proverava-stanje-u-montenegro-erlajnsu/nffrmy7.

    ReplyDelete
  21. We are expecting news about Chineese carrier coming to BEG and launching two routes !!! I very surprised that EK chose ZAG, congrats.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Da li znas koja je kompanija?I kada ce se objaviti informacije o letovima?I mene je zacudilo, ali ovoliko hvalisanje i odjednom ljubljenje EK-a nisam ocekivao.Lep pozdrav.

      Delete
    2. Guess Whoo, jesi li ti YU-AMC s drugog foruma?

      Delete
  22. Prvo da se ispravim, ispade da ne znam engleski zaboravio sam am,bila je rec o tri/cetiri kompanije koje su zelele da udju na trziste, to su China Eastern,Hainan,Air China koliko ja znam.Tu se nesto spominjala i China Southern sto bih iskreno najvise voleo da vidim u Beogradu, to je sve sto znam. Srdacan pozdrav !!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Desava se druze podkrade se greska.Ja sam cuo za prve tri, mada bih ja najvise volio Hainian .Hvala na informaciji.

      Delete
    2. Bilo bi lepo i to videti, mozda bi slali 787.

      Delete
    3. Reko si da ce krenuti sa dve linije. Otkud ta informacija? Uvek se pricalo samo o Pekingu.

      Delete
    4. Peking i Sangaj su uvek u igri bili.

      Delete
    5. Thinking China Southern or Air China from Beijing and China Eastern from Shanghai.

      Delete

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