Monday, May 15, 2017

Air Serbia to maintain long haul operations


Air Serbia plans to maintain its service to New York despite a shift in strategy and a greater focus on "flying to European markets". It comes in the lead-up to the route's one year anniversary this June and just weeks after the airline announced the planned suspension of its second longest service, to Abu Dhabi, this coming winter season. Although the carrier has conceded that its New York operations are yet to turn a profit, Air Serbia's CEO, Dane Kondić, said in an interview to the "B92" network last week, "As a small company, we need to invest a lot, not just in the route but also in the sales network. We have to be realistic. People there do not know about Serbia, with exception to the diaspora, but we can't rely solely on them, despite the route's average load factor being 70%. Conquering the United States is no easy feat but we are working on it".

Flights between Belgrade and New York will peak at five per week during the height of the summer season, before reducing to four weekly as the winter approaches. The airline has planned a temporary stop-in-service between the two cities from October 1 to October 13 due to scheduled heavy maintenance of its sole Airbus A330-200 aircraft, with flights to resume as per normal from October 14. For the upcoming winter, the airline will look to better connect some of its regional flights to its transatlantic service, although the carrier has noted that this in itself will be a challenge due to slot constraints at JFK Airport that dictate the timings of these flights.

Last week, the United States Department of Transportation issued its final approval for Montenegro Airlines to commence codesharing on Air Serbia's flights between Belgrade and New York. This development is expected to further boost loads as Montenegro has proven one of the best selling markets for the airline's US service. The Serbian carrier is also in discussion with a few airlines from the United States in order to better connect its flight to their networks. "It is a long-term game, especially for us since we are a non-aligned carrier flying across the Atlantic. We are making great progress. Our cargo business for example, has been performing beyond expectations. Going forward, as we continue to build momentum and connect more destinations and airlines to our JFK service, we will similarly see better returns", Mr Kondić said recently.

183 comments:

  1. 70% LF for the first year of ops. which only had a few months of summer and all of winter is a pretty good result.

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    1. With 70% LF and a low yield (full fare Pax in Biz missing) the losses must be tremendous. The problem is, that the JFK Ops will have a significant impact on its other business, which we will see in the future. Its really bad they are jeopardizing the whole business because of just one route.

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    2. Their yields on this route are absolutely horrendous - I estimate for the 6 months or so from Jun-Nov '16, on revenue of about $8m, their total operating costs would have been about $12-13m. These are the sort of loss margins that JAT would have been proud of! As long as Vucic is happy, right?

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    3. Those numbers are wrong.

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    4. I think we all know how it ends, when politics is involved in commerce.

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    5. Most new European routes when launched by airlines in the region have a 70% LF. For example last year's ZAG-LED flights which were operated just during the summer had a 70% LF. So for a new transatlantic route that is not a bad result.

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    6. Anon at 9:26 prove your numbers before making false conclusions. Doomsday scenario is based on completely wrong numbers.

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    7. @AnonymousMay 15, 2017 at 9:23 AM

      I presume you are including lease and fuel costs ?

      How much was a lease for A 330 ?
      How much does it cost to fly A330 to New York?
      How much does it cost to land at New York and Belgrade?
      How much does it cost to pay staff to run the aircraft, pilots, ground crew, air crew?
      How much does it cost to maintain the aircraft? B, C and D checks?

      I estimate Air Serbia's revenue on A330 for period June 1st to December 31st, (I don't know when A330 joined the AS fleet)

      178x5x16 weeks x2 = 28480 x $1055 an average includes business and Economy.
      178x4x13 weeks x2 = 18512 x 1055 ...

      Assumption is,

      Economy = $700
      Business = $1800

      Total revenue: ~ 49 580 000.

      This is the revenue for return flights as well.


      If we assume leasing cost is around $4 million per month, over 7 months, that is $28 million. Add all other costs, and you'll end up with the real figure. However my numbers are ideal numbers.

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    8. PS, MY revenue is estimated on return ticket being $1400 and business class $3600, also lease being $4 million per month.

      Cost of leasing one A330 200 is hard to gauge as it depends on the age of the aircraft and what sort of lease it is. From Airbus lease would be in the region of €30-32 million per year for a brand new A330 200, however Assuming AS is paying only half that for much older aircraft, this would come just under $1.5 million per month.

      Assuming AS is paying $10.5 million for 7 month lease in 2016, and tickets aren't as expensive as in my model, say 60%, this comes at $29.75 million, now again remove the cost of operation and maintenance, the crew and you get the real profit or a loss.

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    9. Everyone is laughing at those numbers. Leasing is 4Mil per month? No, just $500k. Where is the cargo revenue, forgot about it? Someone please stop this joker!

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  2. "The airline has planned a temporary stop-in-service between the two cities from October 1 to October 13 due to scheduled heavy maintenance of its sole Airbus A330-200 aircraft, with flights to resume as per normal from October 14".

    Didn't they say in the past how they would take an Etihad plane to do the flights when such occasions occurred?

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    1. For them its better they don´t fly at all, because with this they reduce the losses significantly.

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    2. That's only if the plane broke down unexpectedly, this is a scheduled maintenance

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    3. Seriously? So for a scheduled unavailability of the sole plane they don't get any EY and EY Group support? Must be a joke, right? Who is now supposed to believe a EY plane would step in if needed on short notice when they don't give a damn about ASL long haul ops when they know months in advance!?

      I would never book a ticket with them long-haul. If I make a flight reservation I do not want to be in a limbo as to if the flight will be actually operated or not.

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    4. "I do not want to be in a limbo as to if the flight will be actually operated or not."

      They have not cancelled a single flight to or from New York since they started flying there.

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    5. That is true btw. Anon. @10.23, very stupid comment.

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    6. Anon 10:23,

      ASL will not sell any tickets for the period between 1-13 October so no passengers would find themselves in a limbo.

      That said, I do agree the infamous EY support could have been utilized for this unavailability.

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    7. Da čovek umre od smeha kada pročita neke komentare. Kao " ja ne bi nikada uzeo kartu sa AS pošto nece 13 dana leteti za Ameriku radi redovnih tehnički radova na avionu . Mislim da su takvi komentari dno dna. Pre uspostavljanja JFK linije smo rekli da samo u slučaju kvara na avionu EY će da pomogne svojim avionom da ne bi došlo do većih kašnjenja. Ove brojke od 14 milliona dolara troškova koje koristi dotični gospodin nemaju stvarno nikakve veze sa životom. Promo cene u ekonomskoj klasi za JFK su važile za prvih 9 sedala a ostalo su bile tržišne cene pa čak i nešto skuplje tako da je yild bio na nivou srednje vrednosti. Druga ogromna stvar je Cargo koji je donosio više nego odlične pare. Ne znam da li je negde objavljeno ali sam WiFi na jfk letu je doneo profit od skoro 1og miliona dolara.

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    8. Da čovek umre od smeha kada pročita neke komentare. Kao " ja ne bi nikada uzeo kartu sa AS pošto nece 13 dana leteti za Ameriku radi redovnih tehnički radova na avionu . Mislim da su takvi komentari dno dna. Pre uspostavljanja JFK linije smo rekli da samo u slučaju kvara na avionu EY će da pomogne svojim avionom da ne bi došlo do većih kašnjenja. Ove brojke od 14 milliona dolara troškova koje koristi dotični gospodin nemaju stvarno nikakve veze sa životom. Promo cene u ekonomskoj klasi za JFK su važile za prvih 9 sedala a ostalo su bile tržišne cene pa čak i nešto skuplje tako da je yild bio na nivou srednje vrednosti. Druga ogromna stvar je Cargo koji je donosio više nego odlične pare. Ne znam da li je negde objavljeno ali sam WiFi na jfk letu je doneo profit od skoro 1og miliona dolara.

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    9. Sorry, I should have expressed myself better. My point is I highly doubt that EY would support JU with a long haul plane if the need arises unexpectedly - when they dont support JU when the need arises expectedly. I know so far we have been really lucky that the plane never went tech during any of the rotations, but we all know that is only a matter of time.

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    10. $1M samo za wifi??? To mi malo izgleda previse.

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    11. Da covek umre od smeha kada "dno dna" za neciji komentar kaze neko ko je NAMERNO LAGAO da je na JU JFK letu bilo 200 putnika kad ih je bilo 60. Kao uostalom i miion dolara od wifi-ja, sto takodje, i ne u manjoj meri, zasluzuje jos jedno umiranje od smeha

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    12. Ma šta god. Pa danas svi priznaju, čak i sam Kondić, da JFK donosi ozbiljne gubitke, prvenstveno radi ekstremno niskih cijena.

      HOT, iako si već potpuno diskreditiran, gledaj cijena za JFK se prodavala po smješnih 400 EUR cijelo ljeto. Mogao si kupiti kartu kada god hoćeš po toj cijeni. To je niska cijena i tijekom zime, a ljeti mora biti enormno viša da se naknade zimski gubici.

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    13. EY is still suporting Air Serbia in case A330 goes tech. In fact Air Serbia recently got replacement A340 (yes, 340) approved until June 2018. Tough luck for haters.

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  3. I really think they should use that plane and introduce another destination in the US or Canada.

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    1. The Balkan Diaspora is huge in Chicago and Toronto. If Air Serbia's prices are 10-20% less than AF, KLM, Lufthansa etc. then it can work.

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    2. TS or RV could start YYZ-BEG soon, possibly for 2018 summer season. If Air Serbia is serious about YYZ they should start ASAP to gain foothold before TS or RV enter the market.

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    3. I doubt they have any plans to introduce any other long haul routes any time soon.

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  4. LF od 70% is not so good. First of all it was product of huge dumping, very low prices of ticket. Second of all route was cutting frequencies in winter to just 3 pw what makes utilization of plane disaster. Lease of plane and crew are paid to sleep in Belgrade and do nothing. Huge cost, big loss!

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    1. Crew paid to sleep in Belgrade? Crew lives in Belgrade and they are trained for more than one aircraft. When they are in Belgrade they do other flights as well. There is no exclusive A330 crew.

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    2. The prices are pretty much the same as other airlines offering flights from BEG to the US.

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    3. Strucknjak zna dal je dobar ili nije. Stavite anona 9:10 da bude CEO u JU

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    4. @anon 9.08

      Actually in the beginning the fares from the US were above market rates and this hurt them quite a bit. Especially coming in with a new product from a country few people know about. Later the fares were adjusted downward and now they are exactly the same as other airlines like anon 9.16 says.

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    5. "The prices are pretty much the same as other airlines offering flights from BEG to the US"

      Right- Lufthansa, Swiss take those pax in Eco from BEG because they can afford to do it if there is space. Those airlines make money because the have a very healthy and strong point to point business damand in biz and first class, which JU is entirely missing.

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    6. ^ That's all true but after they started with those high fares and then adjusted them they dumped prices, which in my opinion is completely understandable for a new flight and new product like you say.

      But they did not dump prices this summer, which is a good indication that bookings are doing quite well.

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    7. The above comment was meant for Anonymous at 9.38. The comment afterwards was posted as I was writing mine.

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  5. For many flights during the summer from New York you can no longer book tickets. The planes are full.

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    1. Karata koliko pozelis.

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  6. How in the world they can focus "more on Europe" whereas 80% of their services are already in Western Europe?? Cut Beirut and Tel Aviv? What else?

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    1. Perhaps they will use the Abu Dhabi plane to boost some frequencies in Europe. That flight return is 12 hours. You can do several flights within Europe during that period.

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    2. ...or perhaps they'll just lease it out, which means they're talking BS.

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  7. I hope the NYC turns out to work well. It is very early days for people to be passing judgment whether something is successful or not. MA, OK, RO and even OA used to fly to NYC but all of them stopped. Not sure how it will work with JU having a smaller network. The regional market is just too small to feed the flights on a regular basis. The decision to reduce NYC in winter was smart in my idea. It is the reality of the market.

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  8. I'm wondering how the JFK route affected ASs European network. Have there beem less pax on flights to AMS, CDG for example where people used to connect onto US flights?

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    1. Considering they reduced a few west European cities by one weekly flight this summer it is likely that the reduction came from that.

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    2. Or because of a lack of a real hub system at BEG?

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    3. BEG hub system is far superior to any other in the ex yu.

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    4. "By far" is a major stretch, dude.

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  9. Hope they will make this route work.They need to advertise their product.Wish them all the best

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  10. Good. I'm glad they will keep it. The way things were going for a moment I did think JFK would be up for the chop next. When it comes to long haul you have to look into the long term future. These things take time, especially if you an airline coming from Serbia. Ultimately I think this will turn out to have been a good decision. I think they should have had a similar mindset on some other routes as well. Istanbul being an example.

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  11. Having a codeshare with a US airlines would make them much more appealing for travel to Eastern Europe. Hope they manage to work out some deal there.

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    1. Code share with AA would be quite good.

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    2. How come this was not sorted before the flight started? Surely this would improve sales and capture people who have to fly one stop to Serbia (at the very least). What is holding the agreement up?

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    3. Probably lack of interest from US carriers, which is understandable.

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    4. Or lack of strategic planning or marketing, typical of the mentality from this region :)

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    5. While I agree with you there is a lack of planning in this region I think in this case it is just that airlines from US are simply not interested. This is just such a small and insignificant market for them.

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    6. Codeshare with B6 would be ideal. I think it's also good they are getting some codeshares with other airlines to the US like YM and soon Atlas global.

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    7. I agree. Numbers would be much better had they secured a codeshare inside the US.

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    8. Not sure if anyone here is aware but there is an interline agreement - the connections I know of with AA and JetBlue are from San Diego, Cleveland, and Phoenix. My family and different groups of friends bought these tickets and they are on ONE ticket so they can connect straight to BEG with the direct flight through JFK which is nice!!

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    9. Also ^ the prices from Cleveland when booked were the cheapest with JU compared to competitors, from Phoenix as well, only from San Diego they were more overpriced. Only thing is they offer 1 piece of checked baggage if you're connecting it for example Cleveland - Beograd.

      Also it is true last year I wanted to book JU JFK - Beograd. Lufthansa and Aeroflot were offering 800 dollar tickets while air Serbia was offering 1300. A few weeks later, I couldn't wait anymore and booked with Lufthansa. The day after I booked JU knocked prices down to the same as LH! Hahaha.

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    10. Didn't know that. Good to hear.

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    11. @12:37

      Well, they had a good idea, but not so good software (or maybe they do it manually) - they need to charge the premium for a direct fligt. They actually should have charged you more than LH, but not $500 more, as evidenced by your behaviour, that was too much of a difference. However, I say you would have paid extra $200 or so, having also and extra baggage allowance with JU and the comfort of a direct flight. Lesson learned, I hope.

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  12. Can someone ask this incompetent man why they are leasing out two aircraft if they are suspending AUH because they need the capacity elsewhere?
    These generic statements by JU are becoming sad. Can't wait for Dane to be sacked.

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    1. If you are Air Serbia competitor and you think CEO is making sad and wrong steps that would destroy the company, you woild actually want for that CEO to stay, not to be sacked. Something is wrong with your logic, or it's that Dane is really making steps to strengthen Air Serbia?

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    2. But I am not their competitor, I am a Serbian citizen who wants them to make it. The problem is that more and more people are fleeing from the company because of mobing. This woman Marija who worked for QR in Switzerland left after just a week!

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    3. What does your Maria example has anything to do with leasing out two planes? There are people leaving LH after a week, so what?

      JU is removing AUH because they need capacity in the summer. There is no point in cancelling the route now as many seats are already sold, and there is no point in flying it during winter ehen it's low season.

      Leasing out unused planes is actually good for the company as it brings revenue instead of being parked.

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    4. AUH in the summer months does very well, especially June to September, and ticket prices are high. It would be stupid to cancel the route in the sunmer, where Im sure they make alot of money. Winter loads have improved alot compared to a couple years back, was surprised to hear of full and overbooked flights in the slow months (feb)!

      Balkans, in particular Bosnia, is very popular with the Arabs, and its disappointing that JU doesnt go after this market where it can offer soo much.

      As for leasing out ac, with the amount of reductions made during the winter time, they have excess capacity. A good way to reduce some loss.

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    5. Anon 10.27. JU needs extra capacity in summer? Where. JU have dropped so many destinations last 3 months and trying to lease out their leased aircraft you need to ask what will be next. At this rate JU will soon be left with a dynamic fleet of 1 A330 and their old 733 and ATR aircraft. At least the JFK flight is guaranteed to be the last route still flying, albeit unprofitable.

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    6. They need extra frequencies, and more capacity on many routes during peak summer days. AUH A319 was tied for 12 hours, so now it can help. More seats will also help.

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  13. Winter was always going to be a problem with these flights. I hope they have a better strategy in place this year than last concerning winter ops. I also agree that reducing flights to 3/4 per week in off-peak season was the right thing to do.

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  14. I may not be an aviation expert, but still do not get the strategy of JU lately. Ok, no more boutique, they cut unprofitable routes, ok. But how on Earth will they feed those NYC flights?

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    1. Agree. I find this confusing as well.

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    2. By cutting all the feeding routes east of Belgrade so people can walk and make a "step change" in their aviation business, literally.

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    3. They don't know it themselves. They will offer few random connections here abd there while their losses keep on accumulating.

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    4. If you care to read the article you would find out they will focus on feed from markets like Montenegro. There is no need to provide JFK connections to passengers arriving at BEG from LHR, AMS and most other destinations.

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    5. Monte(f*****)negro, has 600.000 people. Why not focus on Romania which has 23.000.000 or Ukraine with 40.000.000? Both destinations reachable by ATR. Could someone mind to explain?

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    6. Ukrajina dokle vise? Imaju svoju avio liniju sa vezom sa USA i linkove preko beca i minhena i varsave. Ako ti mislis da su oni neki primitivci nista onda.

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    7. Correct Anon 10.32. JU are solely relying on connecting traffic from Montenegro. No wonder the route performs the way it does. Unprofitable. Operates 3-5 times a week, some weeks not at all depending on maintenance schedules. Boring! Book another reliable airline I say.

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    8. ^ You are a class A troll. "Some weeks not at all depending on maintenance schedules". WHEN? It has flown as per schedule every week since its launch.

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    9. JU employe@11.23 - Koliko ja znam, CLJ nema direktnu avio vezu sa SAD, isto tako vazi i za Temisvar, Bukurest, Lvov, Odesu, Kisinjev. Mislim naprotiv da ste vi primitivci, koji ne vidite nista dalje od svog nosa odnosno bivse juge, zato i propadate. Nismo vise u 80' godinama.

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    10. Toliko puno znas da jezivo citati te kako si napredan. To trziste je pokriveno sa LCC kompanijam. Razvoze gastose po Jevropi. Kad budes imao para slobodno ulozi novac tamo.

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    11. JFK route has a very decent LF. That is not the problem, yield is. Generally, prices of tickets are very low, and it's not just in our region (including Montenegro), but also in Ukraine, Romania, etc. Until they are able to charge a bit more than 400-500 EUR for a r/t fare to JFK, focusing on a shorter, rather than longer connecting flights is a good strategy.

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    12. Is that done by decimating connections from Sofia? Would a 3 weekly to CLJ be such a disaster?

      Air Serbia just doesn't seem to be able to put its act together.

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  15. I hope the US doesn't introduce that silly electrics ban for European airlines like people are saying.

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  16. why in the world is not officially announced that airbus neo order was cancelled?
    and as a taxpayer i also want to know what happened to pre-delivery payment of 20mil€ from JAT era?

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  17. How come when making a booking online with JU it is impossible to enter the FF number (I have the Etihad guest number since the startup with ASL)? the system gives an error then requires you to re-enter the e-mail again ...VERY unprofessionally done. Can't they do something right and make that site user friendly?

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    1. i think they are still making the system work..and no benefit with higher tier levels, so far

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    2. Heh, had the same issue last night. You can change your booking to include FF# after you purchase the ticket, though, no errors are reported at that point and it really makes no difference as, unfortunately, no free services are provided for status pax (such as free seat selection).

      However, their Serbian translation is like an unfinished translation file for a computer game or a BBS. Some examples: Let(s) (umesto Let(ovi)), Call customer service at 555.555.5555, Al Italia (umesto Alitalia - they should at least know the name of their closest partner airline), etc...

      My booking summary is a peculiar mix of Serbian and English: Departure, ponedeljak, Class: Ekonomska, etc.

      I really find it super unprofessional they haven't ironed out this part of the website - it is the most frequently used one and screams "we don't care" as it is.

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  18. The issue here is the regional network and that there is not much they can connect to? O&D is not enough to make these flights work. For example, look at the 05.30 arrival from JFK. Besides TGD, LJU and ZAG there is nothing to connect to.

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    1. Da li ti mislis da je bolje u minhenu kada sletis u to vreme ili malo ranije?

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    2. no but from MUC you have onward conections to 100 destinations and thats the point

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    3. But MUC didnt have 100 destinations in the sixties. You have to start with a few and grow from there just like others did.

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    4. True, but in 1960's you did not have competition. Today if you choose flights via BEG with 12 hours connection time, or via MUC with 1 hour connection time, what will you choose?

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    5. Zag tgd and lju dont have to wait 12 hours. Btw google flights is full of cheap flights with 20 hour connection time that include overnight at the terminal for dozens of aiports around the world. People go for it to save a few dollars, nothing strange about JU and BEG.

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    6. Oh, yes, on same days ZAG and LJU passengers have to with for more than 12 hours.

      Maybe there are some people who want to wait for 12 hours for connections, but for sure there are no so many of those, for sure not enough to for fill A330, as we can see on Air Serbia example.

      It is so stupid that they have system where you have to wait for so long. In small airport like Belgrade where connection time should be 20 minutes.

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    7. I did Google Flights search LAX-BEG For July 4/ July 12 and cheapest one is with LX: LX 41, then 21 hours 5 min overnight layover at ZRH, then LX 1416. Small airport like ZRH (compared to PEK or ATL) should have connection times of 45 mins, not 21 hours, according to your dumb reasoning!

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    8. Lol!! Ever came across that the cheapest flight in any flight search engine does not have to be the shortest or the one with smallest transfer time? What is that answer 5h23am even supposed to mean??

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  19. They said before that they think it will take 3 years to make the route profitable. Do you guys think that is possible?

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    1. No - JU are dropping its regional presence to support a loss maker. Wizz and Ryan are gaining momentum in the Serbian market and all JU seem to care about is maintaining JFK flights. Next they will be selling slots at LHR.
      JUnshould give up on JFK and leave it to the likes of LH, LX and OS. At least they operate daily. At this rate there won't be a JU. I give it tops 3 years

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    2. Ryan doesn't even have a single route to Belgrade. Your interests are for LH ans LCCs.

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  20. A lot of you have no clue about aviation. I am not a fanboy and am quite indifferent about Air Serbia. But who on earth would expect a route like this to turn a profit in the first year!? Many airlines launch routes that are unprofitable for the first year or two. It is normal and standard practice. So for people who are jumping and frothing at the mouth that this route is not profitable 11 months after it started you need to enter the real world. I think Air Serbia did choose a good moment to launch flights to New York. This year it would already have been much much more difficult.

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    1. people are jumping on this issue because this is a political-showoff route and it will never turn a eurocent of profit

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    2. Bodybuilder,

      You may wish to read a bit about the fate of legacy carriers that previously attempted to stay small, never try anything out of the box, and only serve major European hubs.

      If you are too busy with your muscles and have no time to read I can quickly summarize it for you: they are all either dead or will be dead within several years. None of them has any future in what Lufty sees as the future of aviation in Europe.

      I'm not saying JFK is a perfect niche but the way you imagine ASL profitable (being a fake lowcost airline) is in fact a road straight into the grave.

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    3. well, for one i hardly believe that LH will bury anyone who is sustainable, regardless of their business model, would it be A3 or RO (not flying to USA) or JU (if it were a sustainable business)
      second of all, not all expansion are good, especially if they are not able to turn profit, but are only contributing to burning hole in company cashflows.
      so, if ever passed the finance department of any airline you would know a thing or two about the numbers that work behind all this laughable "they should expand to YYZ, TSE, ORD and buy 20 regional jets" nonsense that is thrown around daily in this place

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    4. Unfortunately enough, that's the road where they're headed.

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    5. RO is anything but sustainable. A3 may be holding at the moment but once Eurowings is at full swing their management will figure out the only step that makes sense is to sell the business to Lufty (who will then incorporate it into Eurowings).

      In fact, LO may be the only one that survives the whole show, and surprise surprise - check their long haul routes.

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    6. PS is rather alive as well. They're getting 5 738 this year, 4 77L next year.

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    7. A3 management are businessmen and not politicians , they sourly know by opening now a route to New York is a dangerous risk and they know that any kind of loss will be paid by them and not by the Greek tax payers.

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    8. A3 now has no hope of going TATL after Emirates began flying from Athens.

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    9. That didn't prevent them from opening Tehran, Riyadh, Cairo among other routes.

      Delete
    10. Emirates did not open the athens to new york by themselves the Greek state allowed them to do so , anytime the greek state can cut off this agreement with emirates.

      Delete
    11. it is kind of hard to argue why wouldn't greece want to see more of those flights, let alone cancel them. it brings them more tourists, there is no domestic company flying to usa, so it is all good for them. however if there will be cuts by new US administration this one is first to go because it is provocatively meddling with fifth freedom

      Delete
    12. Aegean and Emirates cooperate on EWR-ATH.
      A3's CEO has said it himself that it's still too early for them to launch long-haul flights.

      Delete
    13. What do they know. They should come to Air Serbia for instructions how to do it with 15 planes to feed JFK routes (of course AvioLet 4 737 are not feeders with charter routes).

      Delete
  21. RO is anything but sustainable. A3 may be holding at the moment but once Eurowings is at full swing their management will figure out the only step that makes sense is to sell the business to Lufty (who will then incorporate it into Eurowings).

    In fact, LO may be the only one that survives the whole show, and surprise surprise - check their long haul routes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sounds like a good excuse to do nothing and wait till they take over the market.

      Delete
    2. You do realize that Aegean fought and defeated Ryanair. Eurowings is no match for Aegean.
      A3 will not under any circumstances be sold to anyone. Don't forget that they also turned Etihad down a few years ago.

      Delete
  22. Ovo je propast !

    ReplyDelete
  23. Just wondering what the yields on the JFK route might be?

    ReplyDelete
  24. Expected Hainan announcement of Belgrade route again did not materialize over the last couple of days. That route is now in a limbo of perpetual postponement and possibly a victim of "concession ransomware".

    What Air Serbia should have done instead is to request 2 years of financial support from stakeholders for 2-3 A330 from the start as non-negotiable requirement to start long haul. It would than have A330 to start PEK, supported by codeshare with an airline from China and commerical contracts with tour operators from China that would funnel the tourists to BEG. Air Serbia screwed up by allowing single plane long haul, and I say that as a JU superfan.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Actually Vucic and HNA Group hold talks today.

      Delete
    2. "Air Serbia screwed up by allowing single plane long haul, and I say that as a JU superfan."

      +1

      Delete
    3. Today? It's almost 9PM in Beijing.

      Delete
    4. and still nothing

      Delete

    5. Ex Yu aviation news from 10 May 2017.
      "Serbia's President Elect, Aleksandar Vučić, will travel to Beijing tomorrow where, he says, details of the new route will likely be made public on May 16 when he holds talks with the Chinese President and Prime Minister."
      Today is 15th May

      Delete
    6. Plan was to announce route on 15th May. What went wrong?

      Delete
    7. Vucic promissed the announcement will be made before elections for a president in April but it didn't happen.

      Delete
  25. YU-API (Airbus A319) is not flying for over a week (https://www.flightradar24.com/reg/yu-api). Maybe it is getting new seats?

    ReplyDelete
  26. https://www.airserbia.com/sr-RS/korporativni/vesti/er-srbija-ugradjuje-nova-sedista-u-deset-erbas-aviona

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why couldn't they do this from the start when ordering those planes?

      Delete
    2. “The new seats are roughly 2.6kg lighter than our older-generation seats, which will cut down the empty weight of our Airbus A320 and A319 fleet by more than 3,500kg"

      Simple maths: 2.6kg mupltiplied by 144 or 174 doesn't give anywhere near 3.500kg but a number with one zero less.

      Delete
    3. Kondic's math in calculating the weight is probably the same he uses when calculating JU's profitability. lol

      Btw wouldn't it be fun to compile all of his statements so far, for each of their unique and phenomenal business model? :D

      Delete
    4. @QR921
      ...read well:"our Airbus A319 and A320 fleet". 10 A319/320 not just one, sooo 10x350kg=3500kg

      Delete
    5. @4:31

      Well, he is referring to the entire fleet, i.e. 2.6kg times 144/174, times 10 planes. Very creative.

      Also, no more business class.

      Two photos here (http://www.b92.net/biz/vesti/srbija.php?yyyy=2017&mm=05&dd=15&nav_id=1260592), looks like real thing rather than renders. Actually, more leg room than before, as pouch is above the tray table. I would say a very welcome change for Y pax.

      Delete
    6. So basically they are saving 350 kilos per plane? That's like what, your two average American passengers.

      They are really grasping at straws here in order to justify any kind of strategy shift.

      Delete
    7. Jeez some people are really showing their dumb side just to justify their hate for Air Serbia. New Air Canada livery is lighter than the old one by less than 350kg (depending on a model) and they are proud of the savings. Airlines reduce salad dressing portions to reduce much less weight. Manufacturers invest huge efforts to shave off few hunded kilos from a new plane. Get informed before opening your mouth

      Delete
    8. And all of those airlines get ridiculed. Have you seen the reactions to the new AC livery?
      Maybe you are the one who needs to get informed before attacking others.

      Delete
    9. Did they get ridiculed for weight savings or design? For design. So your argument fails again.

      Delete
    10. The seats that were removed obviously look more spacious, however the legroom looks ok to be honest. I would say the legroom is about the same as before.

      Delete
    11. Air Canada's CEO did not step forward and claim that the weight reduction was one of the best things about the change. Our Danko did exactly that. So your comparison of the two is apples and oranges.

      Delete
    12. OMG Anon 9:55 you can't be any LESS smart! Weight reduction as a result of new livery on a widebody is miniscule compared to 350kg saved per plane with thin seats! Still, AC was proud to talk about those savings in it's Navi magazine, go to page 15:

      https://issuu.com/spafax/docs/air-canada-navi-issue-1

      Weight reduction from new livery on A321 is only 4.5-6.8kg! Air Serbia A319/320 saving per plane is 350kg, helooo!!! Of course Air Serbia CEO should talk about those savings!

      When other airlines install same Recaro seats and save similar weight, they also talk about it you dumb "expert"! British Airways and Iberia are going for the Recaro slim seats and here's what Iberia CEO (yes, CEO!) had to say:

      "We are especially proud of the balance between comfort and economy achieved by the new Recaro SL3510 seats. The design makes the seats incredibly comfortable, while freeing up extra legroom for all our passengers. They are also lighter in weight, which translates into greater fuel economy and cleaner skies”

      from: http://economyclassandbeyond.boardingarea.com/2017/04/10/british-airways-iberia-go-slimline-recaro-sl3510/

      So essentially Iberia CEO said almost the same things as Air Serbia CEO! Another example that I am right and you are just not and will never be!

      Delete
    13. Hahahaha wow... so you proved your point, you must be proud. That still doesn't change the fact that JU is not AC or IB and it will never be under current management which is the very definition of incompetence.

      Also, speaking of Dane's statement, maybe we should make a collage of all the ones he made so far, from JU being a legacy carrier to being a boutique to being a hybrid to most likely being a lowcost sometime next year.

      Also, why didn't Dane brag about the reduction in weight from suspending the meals? LOL

      Delete
    14. It was never about JU being AC or IB! Whole thread is about weight savings of new seats, and you lost your argument. You are no match for me, and your opinions on Air Serbia are worthless.

      Delete
  27. Flew with them from New York to Thessaloniki and back. Great service and great price.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What was your connection time in BEG on each way?
      Thank you for any info.

      Delete
  28. Један ОТ

    Да ли неко зна који је разлог да данашњи лет Ер Србије Сплит Београд има неуобичајену путању: Сплит ка југу и у висини бококоторског залива правац ка Београду, обилазећи тако ваздушни простор БХ.

    Лоше време није разлог, јер у исто време је било доста авиона на уобичајеној рути

    ReplyDelete
  29. They really need to join an alliance if they want US flyers. I live in New York and I have no intention of flying JU to BEG. 10,000 miles is a lot of miles to waste. For me that's a difference between Gold and Platinum. And I'm not going to give that up to save a couple of hours.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Air Serbia and Etihad have a loyalty program too. Ask your IT company to switch to that alliance instead of current one and you won't have to transfer at FRA or MUC

      Delete
    2. 10k Miles if you're in full fare Y. Otherwise you're getting 25-50% of the miles flown at best. My last roundtrip on KLM to ATL in Y netted me whopping 3.5k miles.

      Delete
    3. @ Anon 6:28 - Etihad alliance is not very useful in the US. I get a lot more value from elite status with a US based carrier. American elites are used to complimentary upgrades to biz on domestic flights. That perk is hard to just leave on the table ;)

      @ Putnik - Not true on Delta (my preferred carrier). Delta awards 100% elite qualifying miles on their own metal, and on their Category 1 partners which is most of my flying. This is true for all legacy US carriers

      Delete
    4. Anon at 6:50 you remind me of Clooney's character in Up in the air movie, things you would do for status. Well you can start flying more often to BEG so that Etihad perks are worthy, or simply choose to skip your alliance once a year for a convenience of a direct flight.

      Delete
    5. O cemu li ovaj covek lupeta? Za ozbiljne statuse mu treba mnogo
      vise od 10k milja. Sad ce trci svaki cas u BEG kako da ne.

      Delete
    6. @ Anon 6:56 - LOL, I am that good looking too! ;) But seriously, that movie is so true. I am still somewhat reasonable -which is why I am "only" Platinum as my Diamond friends like to remind me. You have no idea what people are willing to do for status. I personally know people who do so-called mileage runs. A friend recently flew to Tokyo and immediately flew back to New York - never left the airport there, just because she needed miles to get top tier status. And yeah, OK, this is extreme. But most people are willing to put up with a little bit of trouble for the larger prize. In my personal experience, I was upgraded on about 50% of my flights last year. That's literally thousands of dollars in value. All I'm saying is, if they wants to get customers outside of diaspora, they need to find a way to make flying JU less punishing to our loyalty program strategy.

      Delete
  30. If JU were smart, they'd tell EY to start AUH-BEG-JFK dailies with a 77W. This would allow JU to escape from its ludicrous A330 financial drain, would also allow EY to free up an A320 airframe, would actually upgrade the overall offering by both carriers while allowing JU to code-share at far lesser risk and continue to feed both sectors. Not to mention the pax appeal that a wide body ops would do to protect their services from the Gulf versus QR, FZ and even EK one day.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree that would make much more sense and would be a win-win for all involved.

      Delete
    2. +10000000

      This is the best suggestion i read on this forum in a long time...

      Delete
    3. It makes sense... which is why it won't happen.

      Delete
    4. Excellent idea and this would mean a daily New York flight from Belgrade year round instead of 3 or 5 weekly which is a problem and reason Air Serbia is not very successful on this route.

      Delete
    5. Did anyone check us-Serbia bilateral? No?

      Delete
    6. Pusti ih da zamisljaju kako vode aviokompaniju.

      Delete
    7. Oh cume on. We already have ATH, MIL, RIX, PRG flying to NYC operated by another carrier. Besides why would a person from SE Asia fly e.g. DEL-AUH-BEG-JFK or BKK-AUH-BEG-NYC instead of flying direct or have 1 stop?
      When you comment, think first please.

      Delete
    8. The concept presented does not eliminate EY's other non stop flights between AUH and JFK, merely adds another rotation. And with regards to your last question- price! The same reason people from the subcontinent fly EK's flights via ATH and MXP. Maybe you should be the one to think first!

      Delete
    9. The only successful one-stop route in such case would be BEG-ZAG-JFK

      Delete
    10. In today's political and social climate- only if you want to make a failure...

      Delete
    11. It's already happening, the other way around ;)

      Delete
  31. Open Skies signed in 2015... also open skies with UAE and US...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Omg its not about open skies. Read relevant docs including DOT ruling.

      Delete
    2. Omg drama queen its the same agreement Greece has with US as does Italy allowing Emirates to operate through flights... they also did this with Hamburg before... Serbia - like Greece, Italy and Germany can designate Etihad as their operating carrier... actually happened already when Uzbekistan flew via Belgrade to JFK some 12 years ago...

      Delete
    3. ...and the same way Uzbekistan operates flights via Riga.

      Delete
    4. Conditions have been placed on EY/JU codeshare, from Docket DOT-OST-2016-0078:

      "Etihad further states that it will be marketing only Abu Dhabi-U.S. services, and will not sell transportation in the local U.S.-Serbia market."

      Delete
  32. OT
    Both LOT B738s entered commercial service while their seventh B788 is ready for delivery.
    LO is such an impressive success story. Shame that JU failed in its restructuring process.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jat was far bigger than lot in the 80s. Then someone reduced country to pieces and prohibited JU from flying to US for almost 25 years while lot kept growing. Imagine if someone did that to Poland?

      Delete
    2. I don't think you can compare the two. Poland is a homogeneous country made up of Poles. Yugoslavia was made up of several different nationalities which couldn't stand each other and who used Serbia to get rid of their old colonial masters (Italy, Austria and Hungary).

      JAT was an artificial creation just like the country and it was doomed from the start.

      Poles are smart and competent. That's all. LOT could have gone the way of Malev, CSA or Olympic but they didn't. The reformed themselves and got stronger and next year their long-haul fleet will be greater than that of Austrian Airlines.

      Delete
    3. +1
      Croatia is a prime example of how bad management and political interference can destroy a company with a clean slate.

      So much potential there yet it was all missed. Ex-Yu is not mature enough to have a strong national airline.

      Delete
    4. Poland is by far the most prosperous economy of Eastern Europe, a country with 40 million people and a huge Polish communities around the world, especially in the US. It would be a huge surprise if LO wasn't successful.

      Delete
    5. But the thing with Poland is that Lot's hub is all the way in the east while the most prosperous parts of the country are in the old German areas to the west.
      That's why Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines and all the lowcost had such an easy job taking away this market.

      Delete
    6. Definitely OT but the main reason why Poland and the other Visegrad states + Baltic states have done so well for themselves is they started from the absolute rock bottom, broke with USSR, joined and benefited from the EU/NATO back when it was still largely beneficial to be a member. There was really only one direction they could go, up.

      Delete
    7. Actually, the main reason Poland is doing so well is because once Communism fell they completely retired their entire political 'elite' and replaced it with younger one where most came from abroad.

      Look at ex-YU countries, how many politicians have been recycled since the late 1980s, early 1990s? Way too many. Just joining the EU wasn't enough, look at Romania, Bulgaria or Slovakia.

      Delete
    8. @6:54: That's nonsense. Next year LO will have 10 wide bodies, whereas OS will have 12.

      Delete
  33. OT: CLJ Jan-Apr almost 740000. A good reason why JU should launch flights to this destination! Daily CLJ-BEG night flights to feed NYC and Europe.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh no, but no, it shouldn't be launched, it's not Yu, it's not Croatia, it's a Ukraine-like destination + there are low-costs flying there {^-^} {^-^}

      Delete
  34. IMHO I still think this route was premature. ASL should have focused on consolidating its European network first before making such a big, ambitious leap. Now its trying to do just that but with the added strain of an expensive/unprofitable long-haul route. Personally, I can't blame Kondić because its pretty obvious it wasn't his choice. The government (AKA Vučić) insisted on this route and as the majority shareholder, Kondić really doesn't have a choice going against the grain. I suppose you can only blame him for not have the guts to stand up to tell them the truth. Not that it would have changed anything, besides getting a new CEO.

    Just my two cents.

    ReplyDelete

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