Sunday, November 29, 2015

Serbia to become Europe's fastest growing market

IATA tips Serbia to become Europe's fastest growing air market

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its updated passenger growth forecast this week, projecting that passenger numbers are expected to reach seven billion by 2034 with a 3.8% average annual growth in demand. That is more than double the 3.3 billion who flew in 2014 and exactly twice as many as the 3.5 billion expected in 2015. The Association forecasts that Serbia will become Europe's fastest growing market in percentage terms over the next twenty years, with an average annual growth rate of 7 - 8%, doubling in size each decade. On a global scale, Serbia is expected to become the fifth fastest growing market in percentage terms in a list dominated by African nations. Besides Serbia, the top ten will be made up of Malawi, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, the Central African Republic, Tanzania, Uganda, Papua New Guinea, Ethiopia and Vietnam.

Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport has seen its passenger numbers increase over 105% when compared to ten years ago. The airport has recorded an average annual growth rate of 9% over the past decade. Furthermore, in 2014, it added an extra 1.1 million passengers (up 31%) compared to the year before. In 2015, the airport is expected to record more modest growth figures of up to 5%. During the past ten months, Serbia's two international airports handled a combined total of 4.196.051 passengers. Overall, Europe will have the slowest growth rate over the next twenty years, amounting to 2.7%, but will still cater for an additional 591 million passengers a year. The total market will be 1.4 billion passengers. The five fastest-increasing markets in terms of additional passengers per year over the forecast period will be China (758 million new passengers for a total of 1.196 billion), the United States (523 million new passengers for a total of 1.156 billion), India (275 million new passengers for a total of 378 million), Indonesia (132 million new passengers for a total of 219 million) and Brazil (104 million new passengers for a total of 202 million).

IATA’s Director General and CEO, Tony Tyler, says, “Economic and political events over the last year have impacted some of the fundamentals for growth. As a result, we expect some 400 million fewer people to be travelling in 2034 than we did at this time last year. Air transport is a critical part of the global economy and policy-makers should take note of its sensitivity. The economic impact of 400 million fewer travellers is significant. It is important that we don’t create additional headwinds with excessive taxation, onerous regulation or infrastructure deficiencies”. IATA has also pointed towards exciting prospects for the Iranian and Cuban markets following years of isolation. China is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest passenger market (defined by traffic to, from and within) by 2029. Japan, Spain, Germany and France will fall relative to their competitors, while Italy will exit the top ten largest passenger markets list.

55 comments:

  1. Nice. I presume they make this forecast based on the last 10-15 years.

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    1. I don't know what method IATA used for their predictions, but if they are basing it on the trends from the pasts decades, they will be quite disappointed.

      These trends change from month to month. There is nothing that guarantees constant growth.

      Personally, I don't see how Serbia could grow its airline transport industry at such a fast rate. For this to happen, Serbia needs huge economic growth.

      I am not saying that it isn't possible, but right now there is little indication that Serbia will enter a stage of economic upswing. Perhaps it only looks that way because so little progress has been made since the start of the global economic crisis.

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    2. I think average 8% growth per year is achievable considering it grew on average 9% since 2005. Yes, there was last year when there was huge growth but there was also 2009 when number declined a lot because of the crisis plus further declines in 2005 I think.

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    3. But don't forget that many of those years of high growth were merely recovery, both for Serbia's aviation transport industry and economy. No mature market acts like that. This is why the list is dominated by immature markets such as Africa.

      If Serbia can enter a period of fast economic growth, I don't see any reason why Serbia can't average 7-12% increase per year in passenger traffic. The only problem is achieving such growth when we have the leaders we currently have at the helm.

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  2. Kao i obicno,mi Srbi na sve najave sa pozitivnim sadrzajem reagujemo skepticno, sto uopste nije cudno s obzirom na to ko nam je premijer. Nije da ne bi voleo da se ova predvidjanja ostvare, stavise to bi bilo odlicno, ali budimo realni, ovo je jednistavno nemoguce. Stavimo na stranu to sto se trziste stalno menja i sto ovakva predvidjanja cesto nisu bila tacna, Air Serbia nema ni dovoljno aviona, ne mogu da se otarase ni boeinga, ne mogu mnogo da sire mrezu destinacija vise, a Etihad sve vise gubi interesovanje otkad je preuzeo AlItaliu, a mnogo novca im ide i na AirBerlin koji je pred bankrotom... Pritom za ovoliki rast potreban je i enorman rast u ekonomiji, za koji ne bi rekao da je nemoguc ali je jednistavno nerealan.
    Cak me ne bi ni cudilo da sledece godine BEG udje u pad, ove godine jedva izvlace neki rast, to jeste zalosno ali je poprilicno realno...
    S druge strane imaju 10 narudzbina A320neo, pa bi mozda donekle i mogli dosta povecati broj putnika,mada su one prepisane na Etihad...

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    1. Da su u ASL pravi profesionalci penzionisali bi ATR-ove i B733 i uveli RJ masine u flotu. Novac koji ce se baciti na silovanje Amerike mogao se upotrebiti na sredjivanje flote. Ovako samo idu u susret novim problemima. Piloti su prepoznali situaciju i masovno beze, pre svega u Aziju. Ipak ukoliko ne stigne dozvola za Ameriku (o cemu se vec suska posle fijaska ANT na zadnjem oditu) mozda se dozovu pameti. U svakom slucaju zanimljivih meec dana je ispred nas.

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    2. Da su na ovom blogu odgovorni, pomogli bi resenjem i naplatili svoju ekspertizu. Da znaju, prodali bi svoje znanje. Ako im sugestije sa cinjenicama ne primaju, nista tragicno. Za realne solucije biznisa trziste uvek postoji. Ipak, blog je blog. Zavrsava se uglavnom sa onom narodnom krilaticom: "Da je tkati kao zjati,nsvak bi zjao, nebi tkao''. Mozda je malo truda potrebno da se ova poslovica razume. Medjutim mogi blogovi se podudaraju sa navedenom poslovicom. I sam se slazem da je Srbija preumorna od oporavaka i otpora, ali zaista sam pristrasan i pun nade za rast nase nacionalne avio kompanije. Pravo resenje bi bilo da imam da investiram parbstotina miliona evra u Er Srbiju, I toliko u Beogradski, Niski i Kraljevacki aerodrom, blog bi se ''ugasio''. Hocu reci nebi se velika mudrost prosipala. Naravno uracunavajuci tu i sebe. sa verom da ce Er Srbija postati najveca avio kompanija u istoriji na prostorima bivse raspale yu drzave. Time veca od svih ostalih zajedno na istom ovom prostoru. Za aerodrome Nikola Tesla, verujem isto. Pod uslovom da se privatizuje. To se podrazumeva i za Er Srbiju.
      Za sada dovoljno. Rodney & Friends✈✈✈
      LYKV✈SYD.

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    3. @1:47 Jel vi kapirate sta je tranzicioni period?! Prosle su samo dve godine, pobogu! Stiglo je cak 12 aviona, 10 naruceno ali nekima je uvek malo i ne dovoljno!

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    4. Anon at 1:39, imas li neke dokaze za tvoje tvrdnje? Recimo da Etihad gubi interesovanje u odnosu na Alitaliju? Napisi neki dokaz.

      Jedna indikacija da nisu u pravu, Hogan je licno dosao na konferenciju da podrzi Er Srbiju pre par nedelja kad je najavljena linija za Njujork. Kada je Alitalia najavila novi let za Santijago Cile par dana pre toga, Hogan nije bio tamo. Znaci podrzava Er Srbiju vise nego Alitaliju a ne obrnuto kao sto navodis. I tako dalje, vecina tvojih navoda zapravo nema cinjenice koje to potvrdjuju, naprotiv. Imas pravo da mastas o propasti Er Srbije, ali jedno je tvoja masta a drugo cinjenice i istina.

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    5. @5:32
      Mastam o propasti Er Srbije?! Molim?
      1) Cisto sumnjam da najava letova za Santiago od strane aviokompanije sa dvadesetak sirokotrupaca koja vec leti na bezbroj aerodroma na velikoj udaljenosti od svog huba ima toliki znacaj koliki ima pocetak letova za Njujork od strane jedne male aviokompanije sa Balkana. A i ne moze James Hogan da prisustvuje svakoj cerimoniji otvaranja novih linija, stvarno mislis da ima toliko vremena?
      2) Daleko od toga da sanjam o propasti Er Srbije. Stavise voleo bi da se ova predvidjanja ostvare i da Er Srbija bude jedna od najvecih avioprevoznika u Jugoistocnoj Evropi, medjutim jednostavno moramo gledati na stvari realno, a realnost je da nemaju dovoljno aviona za otvaranje novih linija, kao i da je pocetak letova za Njujork ovako rano jednostavno nesto neisplativo i nece im doneti apsolutno nikakvu korist. Pre toga su trebali zameniti ATR sa nekim modernijim avionima poput Embraera i povecati frekvencije iz Beograda ka kljucnim gradovima za letove za SAD (Tel Aviv, Beirut, Atina, Zagreb, Varsava, Budimpesta...) doduse niko ne kaze da oni to nece uraditi, ali ukoliko ne dodaju jos aviona u flotu nece biti u mogucnosti.
      3) Same letove za Njujork zapocinju sa samo jednim A330, sto je veoma rizicno jer npr. u slucaju da se desi kvar putnici nece imati drugu opciju, eventualno konekciju na let AirBerlina sto je izuzetno naporno i to bi moglo da im oduzme dosta potencijalnih putnika, koji bi eventualno izabrali kompanije (LH, TK...) koje ce sigurno odgovoriti na letove ASL za JFK spustanjem cena svojih karata, odnosno dumpingom, sta ASL sebi vise nije u stanju da priusti.
      4) Srbija je medju najsiromasnijim zemljama Evrope i standard je veoma nizak, osim u slucaju da nam se GDP digne u nebesa ili milijarde evra padnu sa neba, sto je, slozicemo se, veoma malo verovatno, ne vidim kako bi ovoliki rast bio moguc. Nema ni Etihad toliko para za bacanje da narucuje 30-40 aviona za Er Srbiju, a s obzirom na to da sve vise aviokompanija napusta Beogradski aerodrom, sumnjam da ce rast ostati na nekom osim na Er Srbiji.
      Dakle ja ne sanjam ni o kakvoj propasti Er Srbije, ali se jednostavno moramo spustiti na zemlju i prestati da ocekujemo da ce Srbija preko noci postati Turska ili da ce Beograd preko noci postati Istanbul.

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    6. Kad budala pise o letovima za Ameriku i o srpskom GDP, a niko ne racuna na "prebogate" gastose koji jednom u deset godina dolete mozda skupe pare pa dolete jednom u pet.. Bas ce Purger da leti sa ASL Meriku ili njegov neki parnjak iz Varsave.

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    7. @7:31
      Vecina ce leteti onom aviokompanijom kojom im najvise odgovara da lete, odnosno onom koja nudi najbolje konekcije i najpristojniju cenu. Air Serbia sigurno jos uvek ne moze da se takmici sa vecim igracima poput Lufthanse ili Turkish Airlines-a sto se toga tice, zato sam rekao da smatram da je prerano zapoceti letove za JFK.
      A ti 'prebogati gastosi' Srbiju posecuju poprilicno cesto, pogotovo Srbi iz Austrije, Nemacke, Svajcarske itd. a takodje tamo dolaze i njihovi rodjaci koji ih posecuju, pa sta mislis zasto ima toliko putnika i frekvencija izmedju Srbije i Nemacke, Austrije, Svajcarske...?
      Zapravo ne shvatam celu smisao tvog komentara, totalno je besmislen, konfuzan i nejasan.

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    8. Anon 6:04,

      Problem je u tome što polovina hejtera pljuje Er Srbiju upravo zbog toga što se nije preko noći pretvorila u novi Turkish Airlines a Beograd u novi IST. Zapravo bi oni trebalo da se spuste na zemlju.

      Mislim, koliko je to prsnuće svesti možeš da zaključiš i po tome što bukvalno svaki put kada Aegean otvori neku liniju ovde krene čitava lavina pljuvačine po Er Srbiji zbog toga što ne radi sve potpuno identično kao Aegean.

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    9. Sama Er Srbija se ponasa kao da je u istoj ligi kao i Aegean ili Turkish Airlines tako da su ta ocekivanja skroz opravdana. Kada se uprava JU stabilizuje mozda ce i hejteri.

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    10. @11:00 Pre bih rekao da je menadzment najnormalniji u celoj halabuci od Vlade, navijaca pa do hejtera.

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    11. Како да не... тај исти менаџмент стално понавља како су лидер у неком недефинисаном региону. На крају крајева, услуга је секундарна карактеристика. Оно шта је битно је број учесталости као и поузданост. Нажалост ЈУ нема ни једно ни друго ван сезоне.

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    12. @8:20 ..ako vam je sve ucinjeno za dve godine malo, vi ste veliki ne otkriveni talenat.

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    13. To je jedan skup neshvacenih genija tamo u svakom uposleniku cuci jedan novi Hogan....

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  3. OT: Banja Luka Airport is committed to develop cargo traffic, and they have planed construction of a cargo center.

    Source: http://www.rtvbn.com/366546/Banjaluka-Izvezeno-5000-tona-mesa

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    Replies
    1. Šta će im novi kargo objekti ako već imaju, kako navode, 1000 kubnih metara prostora u kojem mogu držati ohladjeno meso na temperaturi od 4 do 8 stepeni i još toliko prostora na temperaturi od 8 do 16 stepeni. Sumnjam da toliko takvog prostora ima na BEGu.

      Što se tiče putnika, najzadnji su u regionu.

      Tuzla 200,000
      Sarajevo 1,000,000.
      Oni možda do 20,000.

      Jedna Tuzla ima skoro 10 direktnih linija ka evropskim destinacijama a BNX samo jednu i to do Beograda. Do Beograda je tako daleko da se može i biciklom.

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  4. OT: Any information about Lufthansa's flight LH9999? It's circling around Zadar right now, and it's not the first time.

    Link: https://www.flightradar24.com/flight/lh9999

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  5. It's interesting how every single person who says something that's not telling that it's the end and that everything is just awful and bad is a 'bot', yet almost every single person who criticizes doesn't give us some suggestion to make things better. If you already say that something is not good, then give them a suggestion, what could they do to make it better? The only thing you know is to criticize and say how everything is horrible and that apocalypse is near.
    Yeah, I highly doubt that this growth will actually happen, just like many people here, but some of you guys seem like you wouldn't even want it to happen just so you could say that you were right.

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    1. This whole argument about people complaining but not giving examples of what they would have done doesn't stand as countless examples of what should have been done were presented here. Keep up or at least check your facts before posting on here.

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    2. There are far more people who just complain and don't give their examples of how should it work.

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    3. And how do you know that these people didn't share their own opinions and proposals in the past? How do you make one Anonymous from the other?

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    4. You can see it in their comments.
      They say how something is horrible without even giving some suggestion in that comment, just to show how they are 'smart' and not 'naive' or to make it look like they are some experts.
      Of course, there are many people here who stand behind their opinion and give us arguments like Purger, Aleksandar and Nemjee, but go to any previous post and you will see bunch of people saying how something is just awful and acting as if they arenthe smartest in the world without even giving their sughestion to change something.

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    5. Why would people who are not paid, give advice to people who are paid to resolve the problems? No logic for such demands.

      In addition, it seems to me, a few of you are against people's right to post their opinions on this blog if the opinions are not what you would like to hear. It's not your business to comment their posts.
      You may post your opinions but not about their "misbehaviour".

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    6. Тролови се увек бране слободом говора иако су они ти који је највише злоупотребљавају. Једна је ствар мислити да Новак Ђоковић није добар тенисер зато што ни једном није освојио Ролан Гарос, а потпуно друга то понављати сваки дан, нарочито када тениски стручњаци више пута чињеницима образложе зашто је он добар тенисер и поред тога. Тако је и овде само није тенис у питању.

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  6. One possible way to further boost passenger numbers would be to wait for Nis to grow some more and then to try to get Wizz Air (or any other lowcost carrier) to launch Kraljevo flights. I am sure the market is there and unlike Nis, KVO doesn't have that many international airports in its vicinity. Sure, there is PRN but I highly doubt many people from Serbia would fly out of there. Also the road infrastructure in this part of the country is far from great.

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    1. I agree. They could even reconstruct Uzice airport as well, but I doubt there is money for that or that it would be profitable.
      Futhermore if Jat got bankrupt Wizz Air would expand in Serbia and BEG would might have even bigger number of passengers but that is another story already.

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    2. If Jat went bankrupt, Wizz Air would have never managed to add 1.1 million passengers in a single year.

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    3. Wizz Air will only add flights and passenger numbers that are sustainable and profitable.

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    4. If they could promote our ski resorts then Ponikve could work. However, it would mean that they would have to stop ripping people off which I doubt they will. However, Kraljevo is roughly 100 km away and I think it could serve both cities/areas.

      Well, if Jat went bankrupt then it wouldn't be only Wizz Air who would add flights but practically every other airline. We would have the same scenario that happened in Budapest or Larnaca. It wouldn't be the end of the world.
      It's a shame JU no longer celebrates it's real anniversary, that is the one when Aeroput was established.

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  7. JU statistics in November : passengers -5,5%, flights -7% yoy.

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    1. Very bad news for both JU and BEG.

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    2. AnonymousNovember 29, 2015 at 9:23 PM

      Is someone paying you to write that same message every day?

      #justwondering

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    3. I assume so. He wrote the same thing on last week's news "Swiss to suspend Ljubljana flights".

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    4. "passengers -5,5%, flights -7% yoy"
      means that loadfactor is down.
      Wasn't the flight reductions supposed to be happening so that average flight loadfactor would go up and hense profitabilityOr is something else going on?

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    5. ever attended a math class, or a school in general?

      If ops is decreasing at a greater pace than pax the load factor improves. Not satisfactory though, but still improving.

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    6. Hello? Basic math? If the drop in No of flights is greater than the drop in pax, that means LF is up.

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    7. It does not look good for ASL. Are BEG's total numbers better?

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    8. If number of flights are -7% and number of passengers -5,5% than LF is almost the same. So, those reduction did not have benefits. But they are not good for connection and demotivate potential passengers to use JU in future. Once you lost passenger it is very hard to get it back.

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    9. Anon 9:12 do you also have info about the rest of the ex-yu airports performance?

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    10. Below is my comment on AUH. CLF on that route has doubled compared to last year. This is coming from my flights and my observation, not overall.

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    11. In addition to the schedule being severely reduced, JU suspended Larnaca and Budapest which further contributed to the drop in flights and passenger numbers. Reducing your schedule in wintertime is expected but an airline should not overdo it so as to become uncompetitive...which I fear JU has become. When I said a few weeks ago that passenger numbers will not grow with a reduced timetable people attacked me on here.

      In my opinion there were only three positive developments this winter: increased BEY, increased TIA and the night flights to SKP.

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    12. Nemjee absolutely agree!!!

      +1

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  8. Dakle ljudi izbjegavajte Paris, ali ono izbjegavajte!!!!

    Avion kasnio 30 minuta. OK, očekivao sam i više.

    A onda kontrola putovnica sat vremena. Red u tri... svaku putovnicu detaljno pregledavaju.

    Došao do busa za Orly, čekam 10 minuta, kad ulete specijalci i vojska, sa strojnicama i u sekundu nas evakuirali u susjedni terminal. Baš uz puno buke i sve na juriš.

    Vozač busa kaže može to potrajati i po sat vremena. Predlaže da lovim zadnji bus na 2D koji ide za 15 minuta (u 22 sata). Znam da mi taman toliko treba do 2D (bus je na zadnjim vratima znači skoro kod 2B). Jurim sa prtljagom preko cijelog terminala i dođem doslovce u zadnji čas.

    Ali radi sveopčeg kaosa bus kasni 25 minuta.

    Na Orly sam došao iza 23 sata. I naravno, više ne vozi shuttle za hotel. Red za taxi narednih sat vremena. I eto, prošla ponoć a ja sam tek sad u hotelu.

    Znači od Zagreba do Pariza 1:50 sati, od CDG do ORY (hotel) 4 sata. Trebalo mi je preko 2 sata da izađem iz CDG.

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    1. CDG je oduvek bio aerodrom za izbegavanje.

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    2. Ma da, ali obavim godišnje 10 i više letova preko CDG. Uvijek je relativno shit, iako stvarno volim CDG. Ali sada je istinski kaos!

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    3. Sto si ti mislio da ce biti drugacije kad Zastave stekcu po Parizu? Dok AF ima najbolju uslugu CDG je najgore smece od organizacije.

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    4. Ma CDG je ok. Ima dalwgo gorih aerodrona. I unaprijed sam znao da ce bit banana obzirom na teroristicke napade i Kongres o klimatskim promjenama. Nazalost nisam imao alternative. Za Martiniqueje jedina ozbiljna konekcoja preko Pariza.

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  9. If anyone is interested in JU loads to AUH atm.

    I travelled a few days back from BEG to AUH. Load was roughly 90 pax or 75% CLF.

    Tomorrow is showing 97 pax or 81% CLF.

    This is fantastic load for November, considering only last year it was much less (roughly 40 pax).

    Regarding my flight, push back was ahead of schedule and arrival into AUH was as well early. Crew were nothing less than fantastic. A couple of pax from PRG were making problems with consuming their own alcohol they purchased in BEG duty free, crew handled the situation extremely well and professional. Wifi was available on the flight, although the price is a bit high, 600 din for half an hour or some small data, there were several who did purchase it. AeroMobile was working and available during the flight which worked well.

    As for SJJ-DXB on FZ, a few days ago the load was roughly 20 pax on the flight.

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    Replies
    1. Sounds good. Hope JU being full to AUH becomes a trend.

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  10. Spektakularne fotke novog terminala

    https://web.facebook.com/ZracnalukaZagreb/

    ReplyDelete

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