Thursday, February 9, 2017

Ryanair considering Ljubljana flights


Europe's largest airline, Ryanair, is in talks with Ljubljana Jože Pučnik Airport over potential flights to the Slovenian capital. Ljubljana Airport recently confirmed it had entered into negotiations with the no frills carrier but noted that these were still at a "very early stage". Ryanair yesterday included Ljubljana in an advertisement along with other cities it already serves across the continent. It is the second time the two sides have sat down for talks. In 2011 Ljubljana Airport proposed for Ryanair to operate services out of Dusseldorf, Madrid, Oslo and London to the Slovenian capital, however, the deal never materialised. Over the past year, the carrier has been running frequent recruitment drives for new cabin crew members in Ljubljana, with one of them taking place tomorrow. In a short statement, the airline said passengers should "keep an eye out for Ljubljana".

Ryanair currently operates services to every European Union-member state with exception to Slovenia. The budget airline briefly maintained flights between London Stansted and Maribor in 2007 and 2008. Despite solid loads, the route was terminated after the budget airline hiked prices for a joint advertising program, which was turned down by local authorities. In 2013, following its failed talks with Ljubljana Airport, Ryanair requested for the European Commission to act swiftly and conclude their investigation into whether Adria Airways accepted state aid and benefits from the Slovenian government to the tune of up to 85.5 million euros from 2007 to 2011, contrary to European Union competition laws. In a letter to the Commission, Ryanair said, “State aid was provided to Adria despite its inefficiencies while Ryanair has to develop its own market and is losing revenue”. The Commission subsequently ruled in favour of Adria.

Slovenian media recently reported that, in addition to Ryanair, Ljubljana Airport is in talks with carriers such as Iberia Express and Vueling, while Norwegian Air Shuttle told EX-YU Aviation News of its interest in the Slovenian market. In a statement made this Monday, Ljubljana Airport said, "We have introduced an updated and flexible tariff system which has improved competitiveness, as well as incentives available for attracting new airlines. The system will contribute to the introduction and expansion of new and existing flights, as well as to the engagement of new carriers". Low cost airlines have recently boosted their operations to the Slovenian capital. Late last year, easyJet launched flights from London Gatwick, while the Dutch-based Transavia announced it would introduce services from Amsterdam this April. Furthermore, Wizz Air recently outlined plans to boost capacity on its London Luton - Ljubljana service by upgrading its equipment on the route from the 180-seat Airbus A320 to the 230-seat A321 aircraft this September. Ljubljana Airport's General Manager, Zmago Skobir, said last month that the airport is doing its best to attract new carriers but warned that fuel prices, state taxes and other charges, which it has no control over, continue to act as a deterrent for airlines.

112 comments:

  1. This would be great. All those destinations proposed in 2011 would still make a lot of sense today except for maybe London.

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    1. Considering the loads on Easyjet and Wizzair even London would make sense. Or even better, some other UK airports.

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    2. Where is all the demand coming from between Slovenia and the UK?

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    3. I am surprised that Wizz Air is increasing capacity in stead of frequency.
      Looks like they need to get their CASM down...

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    4. O&D. Good work by Slovenian Tourist Organisation in UK for attracting tourists in all seasons plus London being very popular among Slovenians as a city break.

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    5. Manchester or Liverpool would be good.

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    6. Loads are not the only relevant variable, as people often forget about LCC variable pricing. It's the resulting revenue per seat that matters, which is a product of the load factor and the average fare. A flight could have an average of 90% LF and still be hugely loss-making. Ask easyJet how they fared on the double daily Warsaw - London.

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    7. It's quite impressive that there are flights to 3 London airports from LJU.

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    8. 9:07

      Keeping the CASK at a minimum has actually always been one of the key points of their strategy and one of the reasons they have the competitive advantage over everyone else bar Ryanair. In this particular case, from a company standpoint it doesn't matter whether they are increasing capacity by switching to A321 or adding another frequency - the demand elasticity will produce similar results.

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    9. Yes, 17 flights per week to London in S17, just Wizz and Easy.

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    10. Yeah but if Wizz Air is looking to reduce CASM by increasing capacity over frequency then it can be a good indicator that the airline is not making as much money as it hoped in LJU. Like you said, loads might be there but the yield isn't.

      I guess easyJet struggled on WAW-LON but they are not the ones suffering on the LJU-LON market.

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    11. As indicated above, from a company standpoint it is irrelevant how the capacity is increased. The plane is already there anyways so it isn't like it's been commissioned for this purpose specifically. On top of that, LJU doesn't have a based aircraft so it's very probably it's just plugging a scheduling 'W' hole from where it's based. I wouldn't read more into it.

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    12. * Adding capacity in any case is an indicator of a high performing route to begin with. Just to address the original implication since that seems to be the main point you're concerned with.

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    13. Still, it leaves a lot of room for speculation. Passengers want cheap fares and a lot of flexibility. U2 provides them with both when it comes to LON-LJU. Wizz Air doesn't, it's still playing second fiddle on this market.

      Like I mentioned earlier, the loads might be there but the yields are probably not. Or at least not as much Wizz Air wants.

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    14. 'Adding capacity in any case is an indicator of a high performing route to begin with'

      Yeah but Wizz Air offers like three weekly, not daily flights.

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    15. The three weekly argument does go towards the product quality as well as market share argument, but not the performance one. Increase in capacity is an indication of a good performance irrelevant of the base capacity deployed. As with any properly commercially governed company, they wouldn't be able to consciously sign off something that deteriorates value unless it had strategic value. A LJU-LON three weekly increase on an A321? I'd hardly call that requires strategic attention.

      Anyways, as mentioned above, I think it's just a convenient scheduling combo, nothing more. It just had a good enough performance to get signed off the A321 on top.

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    16. I don't disagree with you but I also add that there is room for speculation. ;)

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    17. Cheers to that. Surely deserves a beer then. :)

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  2. So after they didn't get what they wanted in 2011 FR tried to eliminate Adria. Haha typical.

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    1. It is well known they reported Adria to the European Commission. They even bragged about it in the media.

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    2. Last year Ryanair CCO said something about Fraport having a monopoly in Slovenia and that it is wrong and bad for country :D Have no idea what they were talking about since it is not even true. They seem to be soar about Slovenia. Hope they come though.

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  3. If BEG was more willing to cooperate I am sure LJU-BEG could have worked two times per week.

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    1. No need with JU flying twice daily.

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    2. When Wizz and Ryanair receive new planes, I am pretty sure there will be intra ex-yu rutes

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    3. 9:09

      Ah how I wish that were true. Nope.

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    4. Tranquilis

      What are you implying exactly? JU operates double daily in summer and 12 weekly in winter. Same as with ZAG.

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    5. The business model is completely different. Apples and oranges.

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    6. I just checked and it seems we were speaking about different comments on here.

      As far as ex-YU routes go, there is potential for LCCs especially when it comes to:

      BEG-TIV
      BEG-TGD
      ZAG-DBV

      That's all.

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    7. Probably. There are some barriers to entry on those though, and even if that were not taken into account they're all very seasonal. The high season would have to pay for the low season / downtime. I wonder if there is sufficient upside compared to other similar routes in the region, since that is the basis for comparison, i.e. decision.

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    8. Don't know about the others but there is more than enough market in winter between BEG and TGD. The others are questionable.

      Then again BEG-TIV is double daily in winter at the moment which means that an LCC could pull off two, three weekly flights.

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    9. I guess it does sound reasonable on its own. I was referring to the basis of comparison being the yield of something like BUD-BOJ for instance, provided available capacity to do any of the two.

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    10. Not possible with TGD and TIV until Montenegro joins EU.
      If EU enlargement happens at all - Montenegro has no major disputes and and is following all the recommendations of EU, and it is still not reached the middle of negotiations.
      Other eastern European states (if Slovenian blockade of Croatia is excluded) finished full negotiations by this time.
      So, I don't see BEG-TIV/TGD by Wizz or Ryan in the next five years at least.

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  4. I noticed Ryanair advertising Ljubljana yesterday on their Facebook page. Strange. They never do stuff like that until they actually announce a route.

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    1. Strange indeed. And they put it in front, so it may indeed mean something.

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  5. Maybe a Ryanair base in Ljubljana? It's always nice to dream.

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    Replies
    1. May your dreams come true ;)

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  6. Wow, 20 comments in less than 20 minutes...

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  7. Since the end of this month is the do or die moment for Adria, vultures have started circling. Ryanair is smelling blood.

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    1. Why is it do or die for Adria? Are things bad again?

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    2. The collective agreement ends in February, and there is already talk of a possible strike.

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    3. Thanks. I thought things were getting back on track at Adria.

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    4. whar kind of collective agreement?

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    5. Collective agreement between the owners and pilots.

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    6. The owners of what? He he.

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  8. Ljubljana Airport is finally waking up. With more easyjet flights, bigger capacity from Wizz Air and new Transavia flights it looks like they are really going after LCCs.

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    1. Plus possible new carriers... It looks like double digit growth will continue.

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  9. I bet Fraport management wasn't planning to convert LJU into a LCC heaven like SKP.

    Ryanair's advertisement yesterday could be a warning sign regarding JP. I won't be surprised if JP fails to make it to S17.

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    1. Fraport has been cosying up to Ryanair over the last few months. They gave them discounts at Frankfurt Airport in November, much to Lufthansa's dismay.

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    2. But Ryanair has struggled to find decent slots so their schedule is far from optimal. I guess now they will have to face reality like most airlines do that want to fly to decent airports.

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  10. Something tells me they might be interested in more than one new route. Let's wait and see...

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    1. Do you know anything we don't anon?

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  11. Wouldn't this kill Adria?

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    1. Not if the routes would be different than the routes adria serves I think.

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    2. Not really. If you look at the list of destinations proposed, none of them would compete against Adria, except London. And I don't think it is in Ljubljana Airport's interest to "kill" Adria.

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    3. Oops sorry, my answer is pretty much the same as 9.28. Did not see it posted.

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    4. I don't see why Ljubljana (Fraport) should protect Adria Airways (4K Invest). Both are privately owned.

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    5. Because Adria has an over 60% share at LJU and the airport is highly dependent on their performance.

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  12. It would be fantastic to finally get some scheduled flights to Spain!

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    1. I agree. I think Spain and Scandinavia are underserved from Ljubljana and there is potential for these two markets.

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    2. And Italy. No flights to Italy, good potential, Italians are number one tourists that visit Ljubljana.

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    3. Probably Croatia too. I'm sure there's as many Croats travelling to Slovenia too.

      :)))

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    4. From almost anywhere within Croatia you get pretty fast to Slovenia by road. Which is not true for Italy.

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    5. It is for the regions with high disposable income who make up the majority of visitors.

      I mean, random wishlists from Anonymous posters are not really something to discuss about, but this one stood out as deserving of a special mention. :)

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    6. Ok, so tell me why Madrid and not for instance Rome? Don't think there are hordes of Slovenes going to Madrid, at least not more then Slovenians going to Rome. So? Business? Not the case, Italy is much more important.

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    7. There is probably enough demand for Rome-Ljubljana. However FR is starting Ciampino-TRS next month and AZ has 5 daily FCO-TRS, so I don't really see either of them launching LJU from Rome.

      Perhaps Vueling could do it, I think they have a base at FCO.

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    8. Great news for Ciampino, thanks, didn't know that, a good alternative for me :)
      Yes, Vueling has a base at FCO.

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  13. Slovenia is the last EU country that is not served by Ryanair. Hope this changes soon!

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  14. Let's hope they just don't start London. There are already enough flights :D

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  15. Why does Ryanair recruit so many Slovenian crew even though they don't fly there? All of their other recruitment are at their base cities. Is there some catch?

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  16. There is a rumor going on they will announce some flights to Ljubljana from September.

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    1. Rumours, rumours, rumours... I want facts ;)

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  17. Bad news for Zagreb

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    1. Alen Šćuric PurgerFebruary 9, 2017 at 10:13 AM

      Not exactly!

      Fraport has huge connections with Ryanair, and ADPI with easyJet, as CDG and ORY are between biggest easyJets bases. So, if Fraport will start Ryanair, for sure ZAG will be forced to open (motivate) easyJet to make base in Zagreb.

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    2. +1, don't think ZAG will just watch if Ryan opens a base in LJU. So I like very much the idea, good for ZAG :)

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    3. Purger,
      Ako easy stvarno dodje u Zagreb, to ce biti definitivno kraj CTN dominacije, ali sto je globalno vaznije i nizak udarac LH grupi koja ce se sigurno boriti da spreci takav razvoj situacije.

      ATCO

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    4. A zasto bi bio kraj? Pa nece valjda otvoriti 10 linija.

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    5. I highly doubt ZAG will work on bringing easyJet, they are not interested in turning the airport into a LCC central. They prefer to have modes growth that actually brings money.

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    6. Also, let me add that easyJet wouldn't add anything new to Zagreb. What routes would they launch that are not already served? Maybe Hamburg or Madrid but that's it.

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  18. For an aiport like LJU its very dangerous to go to bed with Ryanair. Its easy for Ryanair to "kill" Adria, and once they have a monopoly they will begin demanding. History has shown. Ryanair at big airports works only if there is strong competition or if the airport pays.

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    1. I'm not exactly a fan of Fraport but they are probably not naive.

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  19. No doubt Fraport are trying to get Ryanair as Lufti is planning to leave Frankfurt and move to Dusseldorf their hub. This is an insider info from Frankfurt.

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    1. I very much doubt Lufthansa would leave Frankfurt

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    2. This is the reason Frankfurt have brought Ryanair. Fraport and Lufti are negotiating to extend their contract.

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    3. DUS can't handle LH moving its hub there, there isn't enough infrastructure to handle such an increase in traffic.

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    4. The movement won't happen immediately - it will take effect in few years if they don't agree to extend their current contract.

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    5. Still, I can't see it happen. Also, if LH moves out FRA will immediately go bankrupt. Especially now with the new terminal being under construction. Passenger numbers will drop from around 55 million to maybe 7 or 8 million.

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    6. LH moving to DUS is te single most ridicoulos post on here ever. Svaka cast!

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    7. If you don't believe you can ask somebody working for Lufti or FRA

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  20. A precursor to Adria pulling out of their longstanding June-September Manchester route?

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    1. Well Adria did announce it is resuming Manchester this summer.

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  21. Ryanair has been expanding a lot across ex-Yu lately. This year they are starting a few new routes out of Croatia and a new route out of Podgorica. Ljubljana would be a nice addition.

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  22. I just hope that " keep an eye out" means something concrete. This answer is used by most of the airlines on Twitter when they don't have anything smart to say just want to end a convo. Ryanair used the same answer on Twitter as a reply to someone under the advertisement pic.

    Hopefully everything turns out OK and someday I will be able to fly from my front door to Spain for Euros :)

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  23. The most developed country in ex-YU finally needs to be recognised! It´s a shame LJU relies so much on Adria but glad Fraport finally got friendlier. I hope it sees the same effect such as VAR/BOJ who also belong to the same portfolio. Good luck SLO!

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    1. VAR and BOJ can say thank you to Erdogan and less so to Fraport.

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    2. Yeah, especially with W6´s decision to base a plane in VAR. All the destinations are summer ones, especially FMM :) Thank you Ergodan. I suggest you investigate a bit on why this changed this year, before jumping to conclusions.

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  24. I wonder which routes could FR realistically operate from LJU?

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    1. LON is quite well served from LJU. Rome is probably not realistic. I wonder about Spain, northern Germany or Scandinavia?

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    2. I guess Scandinavia could be served well enough with CPH daily with a clever schedule and a codeshare with SAS.

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  25. I really hope this happens for LJU. Numbers would grow even more.

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  26. I will believe it when I see it.

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  27. While it's nice that they are trying to attract new carriers, it would be nice to get some decent LCCs like Norwegian or Vueling, not shabby ones like FR or Wizz.

    They should also do their best to keep AY seasonally. It would be relly cool if Paris got upgraded to AF proper from AF. I'm not sure if other legacy carriers are realistic. Iberia Express to MAD is a wet dream :)

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  28. My guess is, they will star off by offering flights to FRA. That will probably be the beginning of the end for Adria.

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  29. It would be great if there would be flights from Scotland to Ljubljana! 🤗😀✈🛫🔝

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  30. Ryanair removed the advertisement.

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  31. In Slovene:
    vnaprej = "in advance"
    and
    vnaprej = "from now on"

    Good luck with your business dealings!

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