Monday, March 13, 2017

Emirates foresees strong Zagreb loads


Emirates’ Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Thierry Antinori, believes the carrier's upcoming daily service between Dubai and Zagreb will be a success both during and out of the high summer season. Speaking at last week's ITB Berlin tourism fair, Mr Antinori said the airline forecasts an average cabin load factor of between 70% and 80% on its 364-seat Boeing 777-300 aircraft, which will be deployed on the route starting June 1. "We are introducing this service because of the firm belief that Croatia has strong economic potential, especially in the tourism sector. Croatia has a solid diaspora in the Middle East and Australia, while this service will link Zagreb with forty cities in the Middle East, Asia and Africa", Mr Antinori said.

The Chief Commercial Officer noted that the introduction of flights to Zagreb makes strong business sense. He added that as sponsors of the Real Madrid football club, the first passenger on board Emirates' service between Zagreb and Dubai will be midfielder and captain of the Croatian national team Luka Modrić. On the other hand, the Croatian Minister for Tourism, Gari Cappelli, said, "This is an opportunity for Croatia to concur new markets such as China, Japan and Korea because Croatia must expand onto other markets. It will act as a safety net and a response when some of our struggling competition returns to the tourism scene".

Speaking at the tourism fair in Berlin, Emirates President, Tim Clark, said the airline needed to adjust its business model for the future. "I honestly believe that the nature of demand... in regional, domestic and long haul is going to change over time, and therefore we have to adapt and adjust our business model accordingly", Mr Clark said. On the subject of capacity growth, he acknowledged that there is a "degree of flat-lining" by Middle Eastern airlines. However, he insisted capacity is still being increased and still sees no danger of overcapacity in the long-term. Where Emirates has in previous years boosted capacity by as much as 20%, its available seat-kilometres will this year be increased 7% to 8%.

120 comments:

  1. So much for people predicting this route will fail.

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    1. What else was the man supposed to say? We are launching this route but we are not certain how it will perform?

      Plus, there was no mention of advanced bookings which is fishy.

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    2. Well they do give a realistic annual LF of 70-80%.

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    3. Well Purger's pax growth numbers were based on EK 100% load factor :D Good luck to EK and all other palyers in Croatia market!

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    4. 70% LF is pretty weak.

      I read this news as , oh well we hope to break even

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    5. Svaka se vijest moze interpretirati po svom ukusu.

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    6. No one said the route would fail. What was said that it could easily create overkill in ZAG which would affect primarily the loads of QR and TK. It was also said that the EK loads may be problematic in low season. None of this means the route is doomed to fail (such conclusions are typically drawn on new routes to BEG).

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    7. And on ZAG routs too.

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    8. Good luck, can't wait to see EK on their first flight to ZAG!

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    9. EK can foresee good loads to ZAG but can they foresee good yields esp during winter? (mic drop and out)

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    10. So, Anonymous 4:49, they don't know what they're doing?

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    11. They are taking a risk hoping it pays off. After all, they've discontinued destinations in the past. :/

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    12. They will definitely discontinue the route to ZAG! Better?

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    13. Alen Scuric PurgerMarch 13, 2017 at 5:28 PM

      I said there would be 100%? OMG. When and where? You have my article about that route and you should read it again. And please don't spread those kind if nonsence around.

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    14. 90% during summer
      60% in winter
      Equals the stated average of 75%

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    15. When you quantified expected benefits to ZAG apt pax growth on account of EK capacity.

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    16. Transfer pax are counted twice, so you can "get more than 75%".

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    17. Alen Šćuric PurgerMarch 13, 2017 at 11:26 PM

      If Anonymous 8:41 againg that is not true! I said how many seats Emirates will have per year than I multiplied that with average LF they had last year (79,6%)

      "Ukupno u godinu dana Emirates će ponuditi 265.720 sjedala na zagrebačkoj liniji, a uz prosječnu popunjenost od 79,6% koliko kompanija ima, za očekivati je dodatnih 212.000 Emiratesovih putnika iz Zagreba u idućih godinu dana."

      Link originalnog teksta:
      https://tangosix.rs/2017/17/01/zagrebacki-aerodrom-se-vraca-na-scenu-zbog-cega-je-dolazak-emiratesa-toliko-bitan/

      So, again, please don't spread those kind if nonsense around.

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    18. It was on this blog where summ of EK pax equated to 100% load factor.

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    19. Alen Šćuric PurgerMarch 14, 2017 at 8:34 AM

      Absolutely not true!

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  2. Thierry also mentioned future expansion in the region :)

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    1. How about BWK? They are expanding their runway? I hear Croatia is really popular among Asians and Australians.

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    2. well, you have correct facts, but Croatia is popular destination everywhere, not just in Asia in Australia :) You know, almost 16 millions of tourists in one year, really good numbers for one small country with population approx. 4 mil. citizens :)

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    3. Which is why DXB-BWK makes sense.

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    4. Well, having all that Italian cultural heritage on the coast is certainly paying off. :)

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    5. They looked at MBX but there were no more slots available during peak hours... damn, all those A332s.

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    6. @AnonymousMarch 13, 2017 at 9:05 AM

      Emirates won't expand in ex-YU/region.

      They might add Dubrovnik on seasonal basis twice per week perhaps, but only when Zagreb service is solid and performs well.

      Emirates might consider adding Bucharest if it didn't already.

      Perhaps after few years in Zagreb they might try another route in the region, but I doubt it. Emirates is looking at potential market and ROI, no other destination in the region has good ROI, however Zagreb offers best potential ROI due to growing tourism. 17 million tourists expected this year, this is in top 25 destinations world wide. By 2020 Croatia is expecting 20-22 million tourist, 4-5 million from non-EU markets.

      As new Star Wars is starting to film in Croatia and final season of Game of Thrones, Croatia will only get more visitors that follow these two franchises.

      James Cameron will also visit Croatia this year with his production company looking for locations for his next Avatar film.

      Los Angeles, Australia, new Zealand and Canada are known filming locations so far.
      With Croatia and Ireland mentioned also as locations for next Avatar franchise.

      Filming starts in mid to late 2018.



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    7. Evo ga, falile su mi tvoje brojke. Opet isto pitanje: na cemu se temelje tvoje projekcije? Gdje nalazis materijal za tvoje projekcije?

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    8. Don't forget that EK will fly to ZAG which has underperformed in the first two months. If we are to look at the increase in passenger numbers then Skopje is a much bigger tourist destination than Zagreb. lol

      I guess all those tourists you speak of come by road to Zagreb.

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    9. Skopje has 1,700,000 passengers Sarajevo olny 800.000.

      Dont compare SKP to SJJ !

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    10. Zagreb has not underperformed in the first two months. In January ot had 17,000 pax more than last year with 82 flights less. And In February it had 1500 pax more than the year before on 244 flights less and a day less in a month. Might want to open the dictionary and look up the meaning of the word underperform. @anon at 4:52 PM

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    11. Of course it underperformed. All ex-YU airports are so far experiencing double digit growth while ZAG is adding 17.000 and 1.500 passengers. lol

      Even LJU managed to grow like 15%. Not to mention SKP.

      You might want to wake up and smell the coffee Michael.

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    12. It should be normal if you had minus last January like BEG had that this January you should have much bigger plus. Still you are just little up to numbers of 2014.

      BEG
      2015. 308.381
      2016. 290.580
      2017. 329.714
      +6,9%

      ZAG
      2015. 150.667
      2016. 157.111
      2017. 168.788
      +12,1%

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    13. Actually you left out something interesting:

      In the first two months of 2017 BEG added 55.377 passengers while Zagreb added 13.281.

      I guess that's why you ignored February and used only January. Nice. Smart move but... not that smart.

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    14. Ti si dosadan

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    15. @Anon 8:17AM
      Your pathetic attempt of provocation makes you just that - pathetic. Putting in the spotlight one fact, but pushing under the carpet the other just to "prove your point"? Actually, pathetic is an understatement. Grow up.

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  3. I think it would have been great if they did the same thing they are doing in Athens now and perhaps flown Dubai-Zagreb-Newark. Would have been a win win for both sides.

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  4. A breakdown of booking would be interesting (I know it's impossible to get). By breakdown I mean premium seats booked, when are bookings doing best. I think it's a bit early to pass judgment.

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    1. The interest and demand from Australia has exceeded expectations. In Australia Croatia is a must see destination and demand is high. Australians also preference Qantas / Emirates over other airlines. Smart move EK.

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  5. Good news for ZAG and EK but not that good food for Qatar Airways. EK is directly going after their passenger base.

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    1. *news not food haha sorry.

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    2. They should upgrade to a B787 to better compete.

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    3. Well, we can expect overall demand to increase as well. Note that (with the exception of Australia), TK will actually be hurt badly, maybe even more so than QR.

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    4. Upgrading to a B788 is easy, filling it is a whole different story.

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    5. Maybe instead of double daily they could fly one daily with a larger bird.

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    6. so you said that is better to fly one daily with bigger plane instead 2 daily flights with smaller plane? Are you serious? DO you know how many connections you have with 2 daily flights and how many with one flight? Don't know what to say, be realistic!!

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    7. Anon 9:37, filling B788 would be a problem for Qatar? 787-8 have 22 seats in bus and 232 in eco. A320 have 12 seats in bus and 120 in eco. 2 daily flights with A320 is a little bit more seats than one 787-8 and we all know that for now Qatar have great LF on routes from/to Zagreb.

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    8. Well, Anon above didn't specify if all the current frequencies or just a few. The best solution would be to keep the same number with the A320. Better to have more options than one widebody aircraft.

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    9. It depends also on cargo potencial. EK will have good rates now with 773 capacity.
      When you give EK the cargo market then it would be better to fly more narrowbody frequencies with more travel options.

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    10. Qatar is more than capable to compete with their prices, all while maintaining the premium service. I'll certainly continue to fly with Qatar.

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    11. But you sticking with QR won't be enough, they need you to fly more often than once a year.

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  6. How will these flights affects TK's Dubrovnik flights?

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    1. And how is that route performing overall?

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    2. during the winter really bad, they even canceled some flights, demand is really low. TK probably will not fly to Dubrovnik next winter.

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    3. Not great during the winter. It was under the airport management expectations but did well during the summer even with the Turkey crisis.

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    4. Sorry did not see pretty much the same comment as mine above.

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  7. Lol, I love when airlines says how they "opened new (Asian, African...) markets", like people (in this case Croats) couldn't fly there at all!

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  8. The glory days of the MEB3 will soon be over. The supply will overwhelmingly surpass demand because of the continuous, huge number of seats. Planes will then be parked in the Mojave desert. Wait and see.

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    1. Ok, I will wait and see.

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    2. lol anon 10:35 :D

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  9. OT

    Today's flydubai BEG-DXB, a couple of seats empty, LF 90%... not bad for mid march

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    1. On top of them operating an extra flight! Last year this time it was three weekly.

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    2. FZ have had really cheap fares lately to DXB. 200€ tickets return with all taxes included have been available the past couple of months.

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    3. FZ has always performed well in Belgrade. I wouldn't be surprised if this coming winter they increase BEG to 5/week.

      There is a lot of P2P demand from Belgrade to Dubai and many Serbs go there for holidays

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    4. any new info on EK flights to BEG?
      I would not be surprised if BEG is launched as a stopover destination with ZAG or BUD in the winter time(something like Larnaca and Malta before, not sure if these flights are still on). I hope ZAG works out for EK, but seasonality is a issue in the region.

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    5. I don't think EK will make any tagged flights, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some frequency reduction during winter. 350 seats daily (actually 700 both ways) is way too much for ZAG, especially since it is not only EK here but fierce competition from QR. Scenario where they simply take their passegners in full is not realistic (and QR is not going anywhere), nor creating additional demand of say 250 pax per direction. Not that quickly and not that fast. So, I would more expect frequency reduction vs any tag. That being said, it is also quite possible for EK to still keep daily for overall network ballance and connection purposes.

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    6. We saw that ZAG had very little growth in January and February when numbers were around 170.000. This is very weak.

      DBV should have been their first destination in CRO.

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    7. Oh yes, DBV...especially in winter :D

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    8. Hehe DBV seasonally.. even TK can't make DBV in winter. Few can. OU only stays there because of subsidies.

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    9. Well with EK launching flights a lot of passengers will come from Slovenia who were using VCE in the past. This route will do really well. Zagreb is an upcoming global destination and EK knows this.

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    10. Anon@4:47PM

      Another one that has no valuable knowledge whatsoever, so it seems. You do understand that ZAG managed to pull around 6% more passengers even with much less flights than in 2016 or you'll just ignore that piece of information and stick to only a "weak increase of passengers"?

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  10. "an average cabin load factor of between 70% and 80%" that is not really "strong" loads but decent for a new route. All the best to Emirates and ZAG

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  11. Looking forward to this new route.

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  12. Would be amazing if they sent the A380 for the inaugural.

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  13. Agree that premium sales will be interesting to see. Especially first. How many F class seats are there on EK 773?

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    1. 12 in first, 42 in J.

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    2. 12 seats in F for the few aircraft left with that configuration, that is A6-EM# series ac.

      8 suites is in F for nearly all ac.

      42 seats in business class for all B777 ac.

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  14. So much hate towards ZAG and CA.

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    1. Where did you read any hate towards ZAG? I don't think anyone even mentioned CA in the comments?

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    2. Shame. Cry me a river.

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  15. What about Dubai-Zagreb-Newark? Could work. I know its late now that Emirates opened the Athens-Newark route but would have been interesting.

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    1. Won't work, Lufthansa won't allow it. If EK was to enter this market LH would be down to one daily flight to ZAG.

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    2. Yeah, as if United and Delta will be happy...

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    3. Delta won't care as they don't get any passengers from Croatia. United on the other won't care either as ex-YU is not interesting for them. Biggest losers would be LH and OS.

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    4. Delta gets pax mainly via AMS and CDG departing ZAG and Split (new daily KLM 73G flight in main season).

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    5. Not really, 99% of those fly on KL, not DL. Delta cares about markets where it can fill at least a B763, ex-YU is not one of those.

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    6. Alen Scuric PurgerMarch 13, 2017 at 5:50 PM

      How exactly can Lufthansa "not allow?" Operator of Zagreb airports are French. Luftansa has no influence to them at all!

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    7. Oh please... give me a break. French are as corrupt as the Croats. Enveloppes will be exchanged and all will be sorted out.

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    8. KL/AF/DL have strong codesharing. How do you know who is operating the TATL flight?

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    9. Because the market between the coast and the US is not as great in terms of flying passengers. Most visit as part of a wider tour. Croatia's coastal airports mostly grow thanks to European holidaymakers.

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    10. Alen Šćuric PurgerMarch 13, 2017 at 11:31 PM

      "French are as corrupt as the Croats. Enveloppes will be exchanged and all will be sorted out."

      OMG... now really, really???? Private French company is courrpt? LH will give private company envelopes? You really believe in this?

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    11. hahahahahaha!! Good one Purger! This is the first time in my 41 years of life that I've heard corruption mentioned in the context of the relation between two private companies. Normally when private companies are concerned we call the "exchange of envelopes" contracts. Not corruption.

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    12. Erm... there is bribery and corruption between private companies. What are you going on about??? Are you living under a rock? Lufthansa owns the Zagreb market which means they have the most influence.

      At the end of the day DL or UA won't come so no need to stress over this.

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    13. Alen Šćuric PurgerMarch 14, 2017 at 8:51 AM

      I presume, that coming of Air Serbia, ČSA, Monarch, Norwegian, Emirates, Air Transat... was also support by envelopes from Lufthansa as that was for sure huge Lufthansa strategic interest to have them in Zagreb.

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    14. Yes, for example enveloppes were exchanged when JP had to be kept alive or when restriction of LCC carriers had to be introduced. Bribery exists on all levels. Just wait for the massive bribery scandal in Deutsche Telekom that's about to explode.

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  16. OT: 27 ponuda za BEG koncesiju, ni jedno pitanje na beg.aero tenderu oko preuzimanja Er Srbije jednog terminala po ugovoru. Mnogo jake ponude ako se nisu setili da pitaju najvažnije pitanje.

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    1. Air Serbia and Etihad never publicly commented on takeover of one airport terminal which is weird on it's own.

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    2. The fact that 27 different companies from all over the world applied means that there are big plans for BEG. Good for all of us, especially JU.

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    3. @Anon at 5:49

      Thanks. You avoided talking about JU taking over BEG Terminal, indirectly confirming it is a taboo topic. Also reflects poorly on 27 bidders that didn't read TFA.

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    4. JU will get terminal 1, which is currently busy being upgraded for them. So no big mystery or intrigue.

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    5. They probably didn't bother with it since Etihad's contract is up next year. During the re-negotiations they can just drop the whole terminal clause and voila.

      Let's be serious here for a moment. As long as Dane is around, JU can't afford to lease an Atr even less so to run a whole terminal.

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    6. If Air Serbia gets Terminal 1, where will their passengers pick up luggage on arrival to T1?

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    7. Everyone arrives through the same arrivals lounge at T2.

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    8. ASL has just cancelled 18 flights BEG-ATH from the end of APR to the end of JUN.

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    9. Is it because EK fly direct to NY, JU gets less JFK transfer pax, or other reasons?

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    10. The biggest loser of EK's entry into the market will be UA since they will be directly competing with Emirates' new flight.

      Who knows why JU cancelled these flights to ATH, they also cancelled several flights to LCA.

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    11. And we read here by "experts" that Emirates JFK flights will have no influence at all to Air Serbia.

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    12. Emirates will primarily hurt US airlines which fly non-stop to Athens. Passengers which used to connect will most likely keep on doing it.

      Mind you, EK is not offering rock bottom fares. They are quite reasonably priced.

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  17. To all that hate ZAG and Croatia - EK is coming to ZAG and not to BEG.
    You can't do nothing about that.
    You have to live with that.

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  18. Ima li brac bwk potencial da privuce
    Easyyet.rayan air, wizzair ,transaviu ili pak neku trecu kompaniju na brac? Ima li pomaka sada nakon produzennja staze?

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