Thursday, October 5, 2017

Zagreb Airport registers strong growth

NEWS FLASH


Zagreb Airport recorded its sixth consecutive month of passenger growth by handling 330.855 passengers this September, representing an increase of 15% on last year. The number of operated flights grew 1.9% to 3.937. During the first three quarters, Croatia's main airport welcomed a record 2.365.992 travellers through its doors, up 11.2% on 2016. At the same time, the airport processed 8.656 tonnes of cargo, an increase of 16.2%.

MonthPAXChange (%)
JAN168.788 7.4
FEB154.679 1.0
MAR192.533 3.3
APR240.168 18.7
MAY268.847 8.9
JUN310.927 16.3
JUL351.532 14.4
AUG347.663 13.3
SEP330.855 15.0

23 comments:

  1. Bravo, ZAG! Cargo grew as well!

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  2. Hmm it means that EK contributed to roughly 45% of the growth, if rumours of them being full are true.

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  3. so Zagreb should see about 3050000.... maybe even closer to 3.1 million if they can maintain 15% growth but I would suspect that the growth for the rest of the year would be closer to 10%.
    All in all, great result for September!

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    Replies
    1. ZAG 2017: 3.060.000 -conservative estimate, 3.080.000 - more postitive estimate. With Monarch, it would have had been able to reach the round 3.100.000 - now, this will mean up to 20.000 pax less

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    2. Any idea how long Qatar will continue to Operate the Monarch flights for?

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    3. Qatar will be returning UK's travelers back to the UK roughly until October 15th

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    4. My conservative estimates were around 3.07 million, if you look at this blog I'm sure you'll find it somewhere.

      I'll stick my neck out and estimate Zagreb to do 3.1 million.

      Monarch loss might be bad, and it might be hard for OU which is reducing London, and BA to instantly cover the loss of the two routes, however, there's loads of connections and cheap flights for Zagreb via alternative and cheaper routes. Monarch fares weren't that cheap to start with.

      BA is very likely to respond and seeing how well Monarch did on Manchester - Zagreb route, wouldn't surprise me if BA initiates the route.

      Brexit factor won't slow down the traffic between the two cities, Croatian's will still be able to travel and even work in the UK after brexit, i know how strange this sounds, but Brexit might not even happen now.

      There's a growing consensus with in all major parties that Brexit is a disaster. Theresa May the PM is under pressure to make a deal with the EU and ideally deal that won't hurt the UK economy. So BINO, Brexit only in Name!!! Is now being proposed by current PM, she has already agreed to all sorts of EU requests, and asking EU for 2 year extension to Brexit negotiations which means remaining in the EU for additional 2 years.

      As things stand, the Tory party won't last very long, and there's a very strong chance of new General Elections early in 2018, perhaps May or June 2018.

      The UK as is a real mess atm.
      So business as usual it seems. EasyJet is saying something about coming back to Zagreb.

      So numbers should be ok in 2018 for Zagreb, an 3.1 million is very likely now. Monarch loss is around 18 000 in pax over last 3 months of the year.

      However, this pax is already eaten by increase in load factor on BA. OU and other airlines that fly to Zagreb. Increasingly larger planes are sent to Zagreb, from usual E-195 or CRHJ-900, to now almost regular A320-A321 or B737 800/900.

      2365
      +285 October
      +225 November
      +225 December
      =3100 - 2017.

      2018 will quite interesting. As of now, 3.5 million is my projection.

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    5. I take a guess and tell you that Jet2.com will start serving the central English markets around MAN and EMA.

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    6. 'BA is very likely to respond and seeing how well Monarch did on Manchester - Zagreb route, wouldn't surprise me if BA initiates the route. '

      BA will step up its game but with its own fare structure which is nowhere close to ZB's.
      There is a reason why Monarch went bust. I wouldn't be surprised if they sold for nothing their flights, not just to ZAG but overall.

      Also, Monarch was a tour operator selling package holidays. BA can't do that, they don't care for those.

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    7. Agree completely. My estimate has been 3,05 - 3,07 million all along.
      I should note that my expectation for September was 320,000. This is a pleasant surprise!
      And the cargo growth...however expected, considering the French priorities, is nonetheless a pleasant piece of news!

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  4. Don't forget that ZAG lost Monarch which was always FULL and mostly operated by the A321. That's why I think growth will slow down a bit.

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  5. Alen Šćuric PurgerOctober 5, 2017 at 10:52 AM

    Manje nego prošle zime
    - Air Serbia, BEG (2pw)
    - Brusseles Airlines, BRU (5pw)
    - OU, LHR (5pw)
    - ČSA, PRG (2pw)
    - Eurowings, CGN (1pw)
    = -15pw

    Pojačanja spram prošle zime:
    - QR, DOH (4pw)
    - OU, LIS (2pw) - do siječnja
    - OU, BCN (2pw) - do siječnja
    - OU, CPH (1pw)
    - Eurowings, DUS (3pw)
    - EK, DXB (5pw) - FlyDubai koji je bio do siječnja
    - Norwegian, ARN (1pw)
    - LOT, WAW (2pw)
    = +20pw

    Sveukupno samo +5pw

    E sad, ok, ima tu još nekih stvari kao što je LH koja leti u studenom 2 pw, a kasnije jedan, Norwegian je prošle zime CPH letio samo do siječnja, sada cijelu zimu, ali OU ne leti LIS i BCN od siječnja, prošle godine je bio flydubai do siječnja tako da nije baš +5pw EK, pa ima nekih većih kapaciteta (Qatar, LOT), ali u načelu to je to 5 dodatnih letova zimi.

    Nije baš nešto. 10% povečanja bojim se da neće ići. Bit će dobro ako će bit 5% povečanja od listopada do prosinca.

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    Replies
    1. Operated flights grew 1.9%- Pax increased 15% on last year. So with basically the same number of flights they saw 15% more pax in September. The rest of the year was the same. So capacity is being used more productively.

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    2. Don't look at the number of operated flights, look at the number of seats being offered compared to last year.

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    3. Purger - last year Fly Dubai flew: up til November 5th...and December 15th - January 15th, that's it. ZAG airport (internal sources) predict double digits will remain throught the winter. I believe +10% is possible. With Monarch, it could have been +13% to +15%...

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    4. ""Don't look at the number of operated flights, look at the number of seats being offered compared to last year"" - Then Purger should have added SEATS instead of flights!!

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    5. Alen Šćuric PurgerOctober 5, 2017 at 3:49 PM

      Naravno vidiš da nisam skinuo flyDubai uopće zbog toga, samo kažem da su ipak letjeli malo više od mjesec dana iako to nisam ukalkulirao, čak ni kao -1pw

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    6. +7
      CSA didn't fly last winter too

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    7. CSA didn't fly last year only during February. This year they won't be flying all winter.

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    8. Ouuu ok. Didn't remember that

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  6. http://camteria.com/en/webcam/zagreb-airport_cam_4714

    I did post this before but might find some more interested people here. Link to Zagreb's old webcam which is still operational.

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  7. Cargo growth is really impressive, 1237 tons v 931 tons last year, September.

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