LOT Polish Airlines announced last week that it is to launch nonstop flights from Budapest to both New York and Chicago in May 2018. The two routes will be served by one of the carrier’s three-class Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft, which will be based at Budapest Airport. The carrier's CEO, Rafał Milczarski, noted that the airline will be focusing on the Baltics and the Balkans region, which could see similar expansion in the future. Notably, emphasis will be put on cities in the area which serve as hubs for Star Alliance member airlines with whom LOT can cooperate. Both Zagreb and Ljubljana are home to national carriers which are part of the alliance, while Croatia Airlines and Adria Airways codeshare on LOT's flights from their respective hubs to Warsaw.
The Croatian Ministry for Tourism is in search for a carrier willing to launch flights between Zagreb and New York. Airlines from both the US and Europe, including leisure carriers, are all under consideration, with the government determined for services to begin next year. On the other hand, Ljubljana Airport has noted that only a foreign carrier could have the potential to introduce services from the Slovenian capital to the United States. Earlier this year, Ljubljana Airport's General Manager, Zmago Skobir, said in an interview, "Theoretically it is possible for us to have intercontinental flights again, but it is unlikely. The Ministry for Infrastructure has concluded agreements with a number of countries. One of the most liberal ones is with the United Arab Emirates, which would allow for flights from Dubai to New York via Ljubljana. So, it is possible, but in reality, it depends on the actual demand and economies of scale". Mr Skobir added, "Within a radius of 500 kilometres, we have five airports, each offering flights to the United States for 500 to 600 euros. Can Ljubljana generate enough traffic for a transatlantic route to be profitable? If for example, Emirates established two to three weekly flights from Dubai to New York via Ljubljana, I think some fifty to sixty passengers would board in Ljubljana". It should be noted that the interview was conducted prior to Emirates announcing its daily service to nearby Zagreb.
Mr Milczarski said, "We want to be the preferred airline in Central and Eastern Europe. This region suffers from an insufficient number of connections. If in fact, we can be the first choice in the region, it certainly will involve further announcements". However, Mr Milczarski added that if the Budapest route proves to be loss-making, the carrier will not hesitate to suspend services, noting that it has no plans to build a hub with feeder flights from the Hungarian capital, the "Pasazer" portal reports. LOT emphasised that the move “marks another stage of market consolidation in Central and Eastern Europe, of which LOT is becoming an undisputed leader”. Within the former Yugoslavia, LOT maintains year-round flights to Belgrade, Ljubljana and Zagreb, as well as seasonal services to Split, Zadar, Podgorica and Pula, the latter two being launched earlier this summer.
I think this would be a great solution for Zagreb and flights to the US.
ReplyDeleteI doubt it will happen with LOT next year since they launching Budapest. Maybe in 2019?
DeleteWould it? Maybe on a seasonal basis, look at EK already reducing Zagreb the moment winter months come.
DeleteDidn't the ministry say that they would start off with seasonal flights in 2018 and then year long in 2019?
DeleteYes
DeleteIt will be interesting how these flights from Budapest will affect Air Serbia's flights to New York. Also further expansion from Balkans will hurt them.
ReplyDeleteWhy would it? Why would someone from Serbia bother to go via Budapst and have to wait at the border when they can go to Belgrade hassle free instead?
DeletePlus JU does not fly to Budapest so it's not like they had transfer passengers from there.
DeleteIt will attract people from other areas that might have been tempted to use Air Serbia's flights to New York.
DeleteHow? LOT itself said they would have no feeder traffic on the route. I think they are relying on the local market which is big enough.
DeleteOpet tesko lupetanje? Kad su pa putnici iz Srbije leteli u Ferhedji? Jedino ako Mihajlovicka ne zabrani totalno promet kombijima imace velikog uticaja ako su povoljne cene karata.
DeleteASL sada ima cenu oko 600 jura ako daju neku cenu oko 500 svi ce ici preko BUD. Shvatite da ljudima znaci 70 jura puta broj clanova porodice. Lutfhanza niskim cenama odvlaci putnike iz BEG cene su takve da tesko sta zaradjuju na tim putnicima.
Didn't LO start operating long haul W patterns with the 788 few weeks ago: WAW-JFK-KRK-JFK-WAW?
DeleteHence, it is very well possible imho that once a week they add ZAG instead of KRK in the W pattern, at least seasonally.
Through OU they would have a lot more feed to the 788 ops out of ZAG compared to KRK.
Wow - what a great idea LO. ZAG would also make a great feeder transfer hub for the rest of the Balkans in conjunction with Star partner OU. Great also for frequent flyers.
DeleteZAG is seriously taking off destined
^ They didn't actually mention Zagreb anywhere. They said they would look at points in the Baltics and Balkans.
DeleteBad news for JU especially given that their JFK route struggles at best
DeleteYou have data that it struggles?
DeleteSame source that JU fans use when they speak of passengers and potential of ZAG.
Delete@AnonymousJuly 10, 2017 at 11:22 AM
DeleteX1000
:)
So it shows that you are actually completely the same. Kids.
DeleteI'd say it will barely affect them. Budapest has enough other connections via somewhere like Frankfurt/Zürich/London etc. that were better than driving all the way to Belgrade. I'd rather say LOT probably had a large amount of tx passengers from Budapest on to North American routes and thought "let's see...".
ReplyDelete+1 These will be mostly for P2P traffic.
DeleteLO has grown so well lately, they have launched flights to China, South Korea, Japan, have conquered Tallinn, increased flights significantly to BEG, LJU. They also now fly up to 3 daily flights during the winter to both OTP & SOF.
ReplyDeleteWhat LO needs to consider are flights to TZL, SKP and PRN. Also BEG needs early morning departure flights to WAW.
I give them six months before they half .
ReplyDeleteI could also see them flying out of ZAG transatlantic. Makes sense on several levels.
ReplyDeleteHow?
DeleteEU member state (ie no issues with permits), Croatia Airlines which is Star Alliance and could feed these flights, they fly from Warsaw to Zagreb, there is demand for the US and lots of tourists.
DeleteWe heard the same for EK in ZAG. Theory is one, reality is another.
DeleteB777 daily is too much capacity in my opinion to fill especially when you have so much competition (Qatar, Turkish). This would be different.
DeleteI'm sorry but I can't see anywhere that EK has reduced ZAG during the winter. Am I missing something?
DeleteZAG is reduced to 5/w in winter.
DeleteThe system is still showing daily.
DeleteIt is not reducing all winter to 5 pw. Be patient. I now that you're happy, but be patient. :D
DeleteI would say the same to you.
Delete@AnonymousJuly 10, 2017 at 12:35 PM
DeleteEmirates is reducing only Nov, Jan, Feb and March to 5 per week.
No one in Croatia had any illusions about Emirates maintaining 365 flights per year, what Emirates did was bit strange to start with, sending B777 300ER to Zagreb daily.
365 seats is way too much for a destination such as Zagreb, however Emirates is doing well on the route. However they realized they won't be making money first or even 2nd year if they fly daily to Zagreb through the winter.
If Emirates keeps B777 200LR, perhaps they can send that during winter months, would be wise thing to do for Emirates, 262 seats much safer bet for the route, and I hope they do.
Qatar however, will be upgrading Zagreb to B787, and that is a good thing.
If LOT starts Flights out of Zagreb for NYC and Chicago from next year with their B787, that'd be something.
We'll see how things go.
If your EK decrease info is reliable as QR upgrading to 787, then you have no credibility.
DeleteHahahahahah so now there is no illusion? Where were you a few months ago when flights were announced? You were predicting so many things and your estimates were based on daily B773 flights.
DeleteShall I remind you that you said EK will bring some 200.000 new passengers?
EK is dead now. QR will crush them and TK will finish them off.
DeleteInteresting, but to a degree expected. I was surprised they didn't do it initially considering high seasonality of the market.
DeleteI bet QR is pleased having at least 2 weekly worries less during winter :)
Well, if QR ends up double daily in winter, EK will be in a world of hurt....no fleet flexibility could be tough in any ex Yu market where summer and winter are very different.
DeleteQR will still have 5 more weekly flights, same as TK. Croatia is booming as a destination and is becoming extremely popular among the world's elite. These people need a good premium product and a lot of flexibility. Qatar can give them that.
Delete@AnonymousJuly 10, 2017 at 7:02 PM
DeleteTo whom are you talking to troll ???
And please show me where I or someone else said Emirates will bring 200 000 pax this year ??? I await your response.
"AnonymousJuly 10, 2017 at 6:05 PM
DeleteEmirates is reducing only Nov, Jan, Feb and March to 5 per week."
Only? thats all winter season W17/18. From 28. october to 31. March is W17/18!
@AnonymousJuly 10, 2017 at 7:41 PM
Delete"Croatia is booming as a destination and is becoming extremely popular among the world's elite. These people need a good premium product and a lot of flexibility. Qatar can give them that."
This site is becoming extremely popular among aviation elite for fun and entertainment! WTF, are you saying "world's elite" will ditch their Global 6000 or G650 to fly QR to ZAG? Even if they don't have private jets they won't go all the way from NYC or LON to DOH and back to ZAG!!! You win comment of day, man!
Woohoo!!! EK is potentially reducing Zag flights from 7 per week to 5 per week during 3 winter months!! YAY!!
DeleteHahaha...the Serbs still can't handle the fact that EK flies to Zagreb instead to Belgrade! Btw...the route is doing very well, even with flights out of Zagreb as of late. Please, whine some more, it's so funny!!
Also, I am so very sorry that Belgrade wasn't mentioned in this article as potentially having the SECOND flight to US, this time by LOT. It must have hurt you deeply!
Why would it hurt us? We are getting flights to China or have you forgotten that?
DeleteAlso, let's be realistic. EK in ZAG was an overkill. I would rather have flydubai in BEG which is growing than EK which is struggling. Don't forget that FZ has been continually increasing BEG... and in winter no less.
I guess it hurts you that airlines keep on increasing BEG in winter while the opposite happen in ZAG.
Also, why should people in BEG be jealous of ZAG? We are in two different leagues for the love of God. You are chasing 3 million we are chasing 6.
As for the 200.000 projections, go and find Purger's analyses where he used 77% as the average LF to ZAG and based on that he claimed around 200 000 people will fly with them.
DeleteThis would be great news!
ReplyDeleteI have heard that they are thinking of either Sofia or Bucharest.
ReplyDeleteThat does not fit with what the CEO said. Bucharest = Tarom = Sky Team.
DeleteSOF also doesn't fit - no SA and Bulgaria Air in general is insignificant. Plus I guess economy is weaker than in Hungary?
DeleteWhy they would care about TAROM? How TAROM can hurt them?
DeleteDidn't TAROM recently announce plans to launch flights to the US?
Delete@10.02 - It wouldn't but it is obvious they are looking for feed for any other similar venture from the region. Croatia Airlines can provide that, TAROM can't.
DeleteIn the text it specifically mentions [quote:] "hubs for Star Alliance member airlines".
DeleteHowever, I think the author of today's news overlooked something:
There are exactly 3 - not 2 SA hubs in whole Balkans, that is Exyu+ALB+BG+RO+HU+GR:
- ZAG (OU)
- LJU (JP)
- ATH (A3)
Yes but I think the author was only looking at it from an ex-Yu perspective.
DeleteI doubt they would do something with Athens. Emirates already flied to Newark from there.
So, is BUD a SA hub? lol
DeleteNo, but they will start to fly from there. I suppose the same will go with OTP
Athens is still possible too, they also do W patterns with Chicago, not just New York.
DeleteWhat will LO do in Athens? Compete with double daily DL, daily UA from EWR and EK's year-round service?
DeleteChicago could work.
The B787 would be the perfect aircraft to operate ZAG-JFK route.
ReplyDeleteA380 would be even better.
DeleteUnfortunately I very much doubt Ljubljana has a chance for these flights. Especially since the airport CEO says there could be only 50-60 passengers per flight.
ReplyDeleteAnd especially if ZAG gets flights to the US.
DeleteA far-cry from Air Serbia which can't consolidate its own regional market and which was in a better starting position than LOT three years ago. The other day LO was sending the 788 to Astana. Greetings from Warsaw.
ReplyDeleteThe only thing you are forgetting is the size of the Polish market vs the size of the tiny and poor Serbian market.
DeleteThe Polish market has proportionally the same number of competitors and a less-favourable geographical hub position than BEG. Let's not forget that ASL market isn't Serbia but the whole region it can cover with ATR which comprises a population equal or higher than Poland. Aviation is an industry where strong domestic market is certainly a plus but not a precondition.
DeleteAir Serbia's market is basically Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia, Albania and Macedonia. And this market is poor and extremely seasonal. Not trying to defend JU. They made mistakes but they are quite limited by the region they operate in. Relying on a transfer model in this region can't work . It can if you dump prices against much larger and established rivals, filling your plane with transfers who bought tickets at cheap prices, unabling you to sell more expensive P2P tickets. That's what JU did and it didn't work on the financial front.
DeleteMoreover, the Polish market isn't centralized and LO faces competition in all its domestic hubs.
DeleteThe real difference between LOT and ASL isn't Poland and Serbia but the absence of vision in the later and they're just patching up the consequences of it. LO wants to be "...the preferred airline in Central and Eastern Europe [and] first choice in the region".
What is JU's vision, announcing 5 year plans every now and then? Maybe they should name their next aircraft 'The Flying Dutchman.'
Uporedjujete trziste Poljske i Srbije sa regionom? Isuse
DeleteI would hardly use LOT as an example to aspire to for Air Serbis. They are in deep losses.
DeleteAnd JU is a profit spinner? Doubt it. At least LO is expanding operates a modern new fleet unlike JU constantly decreasing its network.
DeleteBy the way has JU confirmed their financials lately. Been waiting for months now or should we skip this year and try again next year?
I didn't mention JU being a profit spinner. I said Lot should hardly be used as an example for something to aspire to. Adding routes doesn't mean you are making money.
DeleteAs for the financial results, they have been filed at the end of June as the law requires. It usually takes a few weeks before the Business Register puts up the report on its website. Have you inquired about Adria's results? I notice that your last 3 comments are all related to Air Serbia and or Serbia. All negative of course. Stop poising the comments section.
Adding routes means that you're creating jobs, stimulating demand, positioning your hub on the world's map and promoting your country as a tourist destination. As such, it is not a question of profits but whether the losses are justified by bigger gains.
DeleteProfits are everything unless you are a Middle East airline. If they have to shut down in a year because they are no longer able to get state aid, since they have already used their one chance for this decade, then flying shiny new planes does not count for much. Kingfisher was a fantastic 5 star airline flying the most modern fleet. They closed over night.
DeleteSaying that I do wish LOT all the best and hope their finances recover and keep up with their expansion.
@AnonymousJuly 10, 2017 at 10:54 AM
DeleteAir Serbia losses are staggering, however as long as Serbian Tax payers are willing to pay, there's nothing stopping Air Serbia piling more losses.
And lets not forget JAT losses which stand at what €400 million~.
One wonders who'll cover these losses. O yes, Serbian tax payers.
Yes, that's why I would not use a company such as LOT, a loss making airline, as an example of a company Air Serbia should strive to become. Or are you just not getting what I'm saying?
DeleteI'm glad you managed to find Air Serbia's results. Can you share a link to the figures so we can all see them rather than us taking your word for it?
@ AnonymousJuly 10, 2017 at 1:29 PM
DeleteYou realize LOT's losses are covered by Polish taxpayers? Now they will also cover the loss of Budapest-New York route.
Do you realize Polish education, healthcare, army are all covered by Polish taxpayers? Any bad in that?
DeleteTo su budzetska davanja u celoj Evropi, avio kompanije imaju striktna pravila kada im drzava moze pomagati. Treba li da ti sve nacrtam?
DeleteA very interesting fact is that why you consider Montenegro or Albania Air Serbia's market but not Austria or Hungary which are the same distance or closer? Heck, even Southern Poland is of a similar distance to Albania, same as Western Ukraine.
DeleteSo how comes in one you see JU's market but in the other one no?
Perhaps that's the very problem, or the problem of vision/conception as i was telling at the beginning.
While LOT aims at being the dominant player in Eastern Europe, what is JU aiming for?
Setting your goals too low can be worse and end up more humiliating than setting them too high.
Have a good evening gentlemen.
LOT should start flights to SKP and SJJ
ReplyDeleteWould make sense. Maybe they start them seasonally next year like TGD this year.
DeleteYou fool SJJ jas only 900 k passengers in a calendar year. SKP is close to 2 million but still no need for LOT !
Deletei forgot Pula has 5mio
DeleteWould it make it problematic from LOT to launch ZAG-US flights after BUD? The two cities are close.
ReplyDeleteThat's what I thought too. They kind of overlap.
DeleteDoubt it.
DeleteBUD and VIE are closer than ZAG or BEG. And in VIE is much more competition from Austrian.
I am sure that LOT did a study and looked at a few markets in the region. I'm sure Croatia was one of them but I completely understand them going for Hungary. But looking at all the other countries in the region and the market conditions, I think Croatia would make most sense for LOT for any future expansion.
ReplyDeleteThis goes to show that last year was the last moment for Air Serbia to launch US flights. Competition is becoming bigger and bigger and it would have been difficult to start such flights now.
ReplyDeleteIf LO can connect BUD with the US, than def ZAG could work too. Both ends u hve LO offices selling the flts, plus star alliance partners feeding them. During WITT they could do triangle flights BUD ZAG USA
ReplyDeleteDreamliner is an excellent aircraft for that route
Would be great to hve the LO 788 in ZAG
Slovenia market is too small for USA flts. Also everything south of LJU goes anyway to ZAG and West and Southwest Slovenia use VCE where there is enough capacity to the US
+1
DeleteDon't write off Ljubljana so quickly; there is talk that it could happen within a couple of years. Also, why would they mention Star Alliance hubs if they weren't looking into it?
Delete@JU520 BEGLAXJuly 10, 2017 at 10:11 AM
DeleteIt would be interesting if LOT start flights out of Zagreb for NYC and Chicago, like Budapest. But we must remember, Hungarian government is financing these flights at least partially.
To get Zagreb airport or Croatian government financing anything, you'd better pray for Christmas in August.
+1 last anon
DeleteVery valid point, in BUD they will surely get large government incentives. BUD is known for that, also when it comes to Wizz and other long haul routes too.
However @JU520 BEGLAXJuly 10, 2017 at 10:11 AM: There is no SA feed at BUD. BUD is purely O&D. In Zagreb LOT could get very nice feed from OU.
Please do not compare ZAG to BUD. ZAG still remains a regional, small airport. When the airport passes 5 million, we may then sit down and speak again.
DeleteAlso BUD is, at least, currently 4 times bigger in traffic. Lets see how the EK flights perform and then we can see if we may see possible JFK flights.
@AnonymousJuly 10, 2017 at 2:39 PM
DeleteIf you weren't such a bitter person, one might answer to you, however your hatred and arrogance is just too evident to have any meaningful conversion .
Re LJU: Go Opti should build a little Terminal in LJU where pax could check in bags and drive to ZAG, VCE airports
DeleteThey could cooperate with KE TS EK LO OU in ZAG and US carriers, AC, EK etc in VCE
You guys are living in a beautiful corner of Europe. Radius of 500 km you hve some of Europes top attraction and there is still much of potential to pick up especially in off season periods like November and March.
Ljubljana needs some more hotels, the new Interconti is a first step into right direction. We hopefully will see soon more
@ AnonymousJuly 10, 2017 at 2:39 PM An airport with 5 million pax is still a small regional airport, just like an airport with 3 million.
DeleteThat doesn't however change the fact that Croatia needs flights to the US, at least seasonally and Zagreb is naturally the logical choice for those flights.
*5.5 million
DeleteWell I do hope someone finally starts these flights from Zagreb to the US and I hope it's not some start up letdown like we had Sky Greece to Toronto. LOT would be perfect but like someone said above, I doubt they would launch these flights next year.
ReplyDeleteOn the Balkan market, LOT operates the most flights to Croatia so this would make sense. Interestingly they don't fly to Athens?
ReplyDeleteOdd that they don't fly to Athens.
DeleteWeird. They started flights in 2016 but they must have ended them already again.
DeleteThis might rule out that they go for Athens for some long haul routes (W pattern).
Does Aegean fly to Warsaw?
Delete@ last anon: yep (but dont know if only seasonal)
DeleteLOT used to fly to Athens daily but canceled the route. It was only really meant for connecting passengers as the plane arrive in ATH around 4 or 5am. Aegean has daily flights to WAW in the summer and up to 5/6 times weekly year round and Ryanair also has daily flights to WMI all year round. Aegean also has a summer seasonal service to KRK from Athens.
DeleteThat would kill off any chance for OU to launch its own long haul flights down the line.
ReplyDeleteI suspect these flights would be in partnership with OU. Great result all round and fantastic for ZAG and Croatia.
DeleteWhat flights? Have they announced flights? No. Have they mentioned ZAG or Croatia anywhere? No. Read the news more carefully.
DeleteIt's quite amazing how LOT has restructured considering they were facing bankruptcy 2 years ago.
ReplyDeleteWhat are their finances like now? Have they improved?
DeleteThey are still on the verge of bankruptcy!
DeleteVerge of bankruptcy meanwhile LO has one of Europes modern fleet?
DeleteGreat news for the Balkans. Finally a viable travel option to North America and on a Dreamliner - WOW
Yes LOT has been recording losses every single year since 2008. And they haven't turned a profit even after they got state aid a 2 years ago.
Deletewell if they cannot turn a profit, the highly lucrative balkan market will be a game changer!
DeleteI also wonder how this strategy of mini hubs (BUD and KRK) will work for them. Much bigger players have abandoned this approach, especially on long haul flights.
DeleteFirst. They are profitable, last year ca 45M EUR
DeleteSecond. In Poland many people believe that Krakow and Budapest are politically driven. However LOT showed some study that from Budapest to US there is 60% more passangers than from Warsaw. However Warsaw has 26 weekly direct flights to US while Budapest has none - that would be rational.
Third - Nordica acquisition was really successful with Tallin traffic growth by over 20% (contributed to LOT)
Love the smiling faces on the vintage photo.
ReplyDeletePitty I was too young and too broke in the 80ties- would've loved to experience JAT's business class ;)
I doubt Lufthansa is happy with this development.
ReplyDeleteThey are definitely being squeezed out of many transfer passengers from Eastern Europe.
DeleteTough shit for Lufthansa
DeleteLO should conquer the Balkans just like it did with Estonia. They should buy JP and YM, base 2 aircraft in Skopie and story finished.
ReplyDeleteInteresting strategy from LOT.
ReplyDeleteThis would be great for either LJU or ZAG but I think it is early days still.
ReplyDeleteOT: Few years ago Norwegian said:"Belgrade is our potential base in Southeast Europe".
ReplyDeleteWhat about it? Does anyone know? This would be great, but how realistic now...
They were CONSIDERING it. The magic word in exYU.
DeleteNorway is not in the ex-YU
DeleteOT:
ReplyDeleteLjubljana / LJU 1-6/2017 + 21 % in respect of pax, + 13,5 % in respect of cargo
+1
DeleteLOT might end up with one 787 doing 4pw ZAG-JFK and 2pw LJU-JFK
ReplyDeleteYeah, sure
DeleteI think they are waiting for the B789 to launch LJU and ZAG flights.
DeleteYes, this is true, it will happen within 2 years.
DeleteOT
ReplyDeleteOnce again OU is experiencing problems with its Q400s. Those SSJs can't come soon enough.
What SSJs?
Delete@AnonymousJuly 10, 2017 at 8:44 PM
DeleteIgnore him, he's just a troll.
What troll? Q400s experienced several mechanical issues today.
Delete