China has emerged as one of the top unserved markets to and from Belgrade since visa restrictions between the two countries were mutually lifted in 2017, with travel reaching a record high in 2019, prior to the coronavirus pandemic. Figures for that year show that Belgrade’s overall top unserved route was Shanghai, followed by Beijing, with Aeroflot profiting the most from the China - Serbia travel growth. A total of 145.248 passengers travelled between the two countries in 2019 (excluding Hong Kong and Taiwan). Of those, 62.518 flew to or from Shanghai, or around 43% of all China travellers. It was followed by Beijing with 52.123 passengers and Guangzhou with 14.087 travellers. A total of 576 people flew indirectly to Belgrade from Wuhan, which would become the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic just a year later.
Belgrade was the eleventh busiest unserved route from Shanghai and the seventh busiest European market without flights to China's largest city. Most of the traffic flow between China and Serbia over the past few years has originated from Shanghai. This is in part because the largest portion of Chinese nationals residing in Serbia have their origins in two provinces south of the Shanghai region. Overall, Moscow Sheremetyevo was the top connecting airport for travellers between Serbia and China with 69.456 opting to transfer via the Russian capital. It was followed by Doha and Abu Dhabi. As a result, Aeroflot, which introduced a third daily service to Belgrade in the winter of 2019/2020 before Covid-19 struck, was the number one feeder carrier. It was followed by Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways, which has since terminated its service to Belgrade.
The Serbian capital was briefly served by Hainan Airlines from Beijing in 2017 with a stop in Prague, however, flights were suspended a year later due to low demand. In May of last year, Serbia’s President, Aleksandar Vučić, noted, “Serbia is very popular in China due to its friendly relations and we are considering for Air Serbia to launch flights to the country in the coming period, with assistance from China. We are in discussions”. Travel between Serbia and China plummeted in 2020 due to the global health emergency. Travel in and out of the Asian country remains tightly regulated due to Covid-19.
Top five busiest China - Serbia routes in 2019
If you would like to find out the full list of the busiest unserved routes from Belgrade, of which three of the top five are in Asia, subscribe for this week’s EX-YU Aviation Premium Newsletter here.
wow very interesting. Who would have thought.
ReplyDeleteI read an article recently on world passport rankings which referenced henleypassportindex.com. Serbia (ranked 38th) must be the only European country that has Visa-free travel to EU/Russia/China. I think that's pretty cool. So, in addition to Chinese residents and the large-scale infrastructure projects currently under way, this free travel is a factor. On the negative side, it is not the best passport for Anglo-run nations like UK/USA/Canada/Australia with whom Serbia should introduce reciprocal measures because it is starting to look stupid now.
DeleteActually Hainan discontinued BEG because the local authority that was subsidizing those flights no longer wanted to do so.
ReplyDeleteWhich would indicate the route was unprofitable. Hainan authority subsisdises most routes for 1 year.
DeleteOf course it was unprofitable when it operated with a PRG stop.
DeleteWhy did the government, embassy go after linking Beijing and Belgrade when the demand is obviously for Shanghai.
DeleteI think the whole plan was poorly executed but also JU codeshare was extremely expensive and ineffective so that ddn't help either. Actually JU codeshares are always so expensive, that department is really useless.
DeleteBecause Beijing is the capital and the seat of the government.
DeleteHainan Group had extremely huge financial problems. Their chairman perished in Paris. Not looking into good shape.
Delete@9.13
DeleteBecause that's what you get when bureaucrats get mixed up in aviation.
Or maybe because Hainan was willing to launch flights and they happen to be based in Beijing.
Delete09:06
DeleteBut how is then SQ doing good with triangle routes in Europe and US? Or Emirates?
2 completely different things
DeleteEK doesn't operate any triangle routes in Europe. They even cut DXB-LCA-MLA.
DeleteThey operated it and it was succesful during normal times. And continent doesnt matter, only things that matter is will it woek.
DeleteThe tag LCA-MLA-LCA allowed for the aircraft to be back in DXB for the 3am wave to better facilitate transfers (Asia/Australia), while not keeping an aircraft on ground for hours in LCA (crew legalities), as well as tapping into the MLA market.
DeleteI wouldnt say successful as theyve been playing with MLA for years (direct, via MLA, via TIP, via TUN).
That's quite a lot of passengers from/to Shanghai. The route could work with very good loads twice per week year round.
ReplyDeleteAfter covid
DeleteWE WANT CHINA FLIGHTS!
ReplyDeleteTime for Air Serbia to launch Shanghai.
ReplyDeleteOr Guamgzhou.
DeleteAir Serbia should have started Shanghai.
ReplyDeleteWith what? :D
DeleteWith an A330-200.
DeleteWell with A330
DeleteShanghai is much more logical route to BEG then PEK.
ReplyDeleteThere would definitely be more O&D traffic.
DeleteThen PEK, or than PEK? Big difference in meaning.
DeleteHe obviously meant than
DeleteAeroflot was winning big time with China transfers.
ReplyDeleteNo wonder they planned 3 daily in 2020.
DeleteWell they did not only plan it, they executed it in winter 2019.
DeleteJU should take the chance and start to fly triangle flights BEG-PVG-PEK-BEG
ReplyDeleteThat would be suicide because it would make them uncompetitive. Age of triangle flights is long gone.
DeleteDemand for two destinations seems too small to me.
DeleteTrends would change if you launched nonstop flights. The figures in the article are just O&D. You would get a lot of transfers on these flights on both ends.
DeleteI see probeblem in competition. TK, SU and QR are doing very well in BEG and that is not soo good for an airline which would launch flights. I hope that BEG will get them one day, but it doesnt seems so possible when projectons are saying that recovery for long haul will last longer. I doubt any chinese airline will go in an adventure in BEG considering whats going on now.
DeleteAnon 09:39
DeleteWell, Air China is succesful with triagle route PEK-MSQ-BUD. There is demand so it works.
Would never have thought that. Very interesting.
ReplyDeleteShanghai has potential. Once corona is over it can be used by business people, expats and tourists. I'm also sure there would cargo traffic on this route.
ReplyDeleteHow many Chinese tourists were there in Serbia in 2019? Maybe once they hit the 500.000 mark flights could happen.
DeleteI suppose QR profits as well? After all they had 10 weekly to BEG
DeleteObviously. It says int he article:
Delete"As a result, Aeroflot, which introduced a third daily service to Belgrade in the winter of 2019/2020 before Covid-19 struck, was the number one feeder carrier. It was followed by Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways"
There were 144k Chinese tourists in 2019
DeleteThere is also lot of people traveling to Hong Kong and then transferring to mainland China. Many of the travelers to Shenzhen & Guangzhou were using this route because you can transfer directly from HK airport by car, train or ferry.
ReplyDeletelove this data. Thanks :)
ReplyDeleteLove it!
ReplyDeleteI would prefer JU focus on USA/Canada and leave China to one of their Interline partners.
ReplyDeleteWhy?
Delete"A total of 576 people flew indirectly to Belgrade from Wuhan, which would become the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic just a year later."
ReplyDelete:D
What's interesting is that the number of Chinese tourists to Serbia did not decrease when Hainan flights were cancelled.
ReplyDeleteWhich shows that Hainan was flying empty to BEG.
DeleteWhich shows that passengers did not like connection in PRG
DeleteOr they where not interested to come in Serbia in larger numbers with direct flight becasue there were a lot of transfer options.
DeleteOr that tourist numbers grew regardless of flights offered.
DeleteHow does that has any connection with my comment?
DeleteYou would think some European city would be top unserved. Interesting.
ReplyDeleteVinci should really target getting flights to Shanghai. Shanghai not only offers excellent transfer opportunities to other important Chinese domestic destinations, it also serves as a hub for people travelling to Japan, South Korea, other countries in Southeast Asia, and to Australia or New Zealand.
ReplyDelete+100
DeleteCrazy that there are no flights between Belgrade and Shanghai.
ReplyDeleteIt will happen sooner or later.
DeleteInteresting about most Chinese being from two provinces near Shanghai. When did the current Chinese community settle in Serbia?
ReplyDeleteIn late 90s, that's when they start arriving
DeleteThe biggest move was in late 90s early 2000 as above anon rightly says. Slobo abolished visas and many of them used it to escape to EU. That is why JAT started flights to Beijing in 1998. When Slobo was toppled the EU requested for the JU flights to be suspended and for visas to be reintroduced. During these migrations, naturally thousands of Chinese stayed in Serbia.
DeleteThanks. Very interesting.
DeleteAnd to think now they can travel to Serbia without a visa and the EU has no problem with it.
DeleteWell it is a very different time now. China then and now are two different worlds.
Delete@An.09.54.
DeleteJAT did not start flights to PEK in 1998. The first time JAT tried PEK was 1977 with B707 via Karachi. The first attempt was not successful. China was still closed at the time. The only two European airlines to fly to China at that time were Swiss Air, once weekly to Peking, on DC-8, and Air France, once weekly to Shanghai on B707. After couple of years, being unprofitable, the service was terminated. Second JAT attempt to China was 1986, when JAT started seriously growing its long-haul network with scheduled Montreal and Toronto, Detroit, Kuala Lumpur, Calcutta, Beijing, Bangkok, Los Angeles, and plans for more (Bombay, Seoul, Tokyo, Johannesburg, Caracas, Washington, Houston, Miami, San Francisco) Those flight to Beijing were operated via Calcutta, in times when China started to open to the World, and unlike before, flights were profitable. This "story" with PEK just shows how wrong are people who claim JAT was operating political and non profitable routes. And it is true that PEK restarted in 1998, but as the third attempt, and by an airline which was definitely not JAT any more at that time, even if it carried the name.
JAT was profitabile and succesful but i doubt it will be the same in these times. They had less competition then airlines today so it was expected to operate routes like these and make profit.
DeleteSorry, but I can't agree with you completely. JAT had direct competition on all long-haul markets. Pan American had operated from New York and Washington to BEG, ZAG and DBV. Air Canada had operated to ZAG. Air China, which was called CAAC at the time had operated from China to BEG. Qantas had operated to BEG as well. Varig of Brasil and Air India had pool cooperation. On European continent, only Iberia, Sabena and Olympic did not operate to Yugoslavia from the markets served by JAT, all other airlines did, and even on domestic market there was competition with Adria (and others, but mostly Adria on major domestic routes). Also both Adria and Aviogenex competed in charter segment. Generally what you say is true, there were no LCC'S, and generally the offer, and competition were not that huge as today, as today we have inflation of airlines everywhere, but particularly, JAT had faced fierce competition everywhere, or almost everywhere it had flown
DeleteI didnt say they didnt have a competition, but that they had less competition. And competition isnt only direct one, but and indirect one. How many of these flights towards long haul markets would be profitabile today when you only have LH offering in normal times up to 12 daily flights to the region. And they have amazing connections. And include to that all other airlines which do offer connections and multiple daily flights. Simply JAT wouldnt be able to compete with all these airlines on small market as ex yu.
DeleteDisagree again. Two airlines with the fastest and biggest growth after the disintegration of Yugoslavia are Turkish and Austrian. Do you think that's just like that? It is not. If Yugoslavia didn't have wars and mafia organizations which after the wars continued to control the ex-yu republics, and if JAT remained as flag carrier, it would be competitive and profitable even today on major long-haul markets it operated before. Of course, with moderated operations model, probably with no Cleveland, Detroit and similar flights, no direct Australia because of MEB3, but major destinations in the North America and the Far East, on frequent nonstop flights, with one hub (BEG), tourist potentials of the entire ex-yu, immigration/diaspora, and feed from surrounding countries/regions, in addition to tradition and history, and some operational costs lower than to the west, would result in profitable company transporting serious number of passengers now being funnelled to LH, TK, OS, BA, AF, KL, and the likes
DeleteYou really think JAT had same competition then as it would today? Immposible, neoliberalization changed aviation industry totally.
DeleteNo, I already wrote that generally competition is much much bigger today. But I think you underestimate the size of ex-yu market, and position JAT had on the market because of its quality, history, hub location, feeding markets, developed network... Because of that I am absolutely sure JAT would be big and profitable even today, despite of all the competition, of course if we had normal overall development which all others you mention did have
Deletepoz from Riki, I appreciate your insight and commentary on history of JAT. I tend to agree with you. You must have been JAT big shot years ago. ;-) Cheers mate.
Delete@Charlie
DeleteI was the biggest shot for my Mum and Dad :) But same like them, I 'll never forget JAT, my first love :) Thanks mate! Cheers!
Once market settles, I have a feeling JU will be heading to China.
ReplyDeleteAir Serbia has a huge potential here, because it also serves some of the other top unserved European routes from Shanghai, and little bit advertising in China, and there you go: Shangai-BEG-Shanghai could work.
ReplyDeleteThey can get cheaper equipment for that now.
DeleteWhy it didn't happen:
ReplyDelete- BEG-PVG-BEG is probably more than 24h rotation -> suboptimal use of equipment
- point of sale heavily on the Chinese side -> Chinese prefer to use Chinese airlines - a setback for JU
- a lot of pax are construction workers in Serbia -> price sensitive
- no transfers for JU on the PVG/PEK side - a great deal of those Chinese pax are actually tranfering at PVG/PEK to fly onwards to their places all over in China - they are not really from PVG/ PEK - it would work differently for a Chinese airline with transfer possibilities on the Chinese side
PVG would be slightly over 24 hours. They could use the aircraft between rotations to another destination ie 2 routes on 1 ac.
DeleteFor example:
BEG PVG 1350 0720+1
PVG BEG 0900 1420
BEG YYZ 1700 2100
YYZ BEG 2230 1215
Its tight, but doable.
Connections on the Chinese side could work with either interline or a new codeshare agreement, which I'm sure will be signed.
Another thing to look at is cargo, which especially for the next couple of years will be an important factor.
Ex-yu, which are the other top ten unserved routes from Shanghai?
ReplyDeleteDusseldorf was the busiest unserved route, followed by Manchester, Cairo, Penang, Sao Paulo, Venice, Athens, Hamburg, Berlin and Johannesburg
DeleteDoes Air China fly from Shanghai to European cities?
ReplyDeleteBefore Covid, yes
DeleteYes they flew to Barcelona, Frankfurt, Milan, Munich and Paris.
DeleteCome on Belgrade, we can do it!
ReplyDeleteWhat is interesting is that BUD has 5 Chinese connections, while visas are currently required for them to enter EU and Hungary. Currently from BUD there non-stop flights from to: PEK, PVG, CKG, CTU & XIY. That's even more than WAW I guess!
ReplyDeleteWho knows if they will all return.
DeleteHungary and China are very close. Lots of Chinese businesses in Hungary and big Chinese population living in Hungary now.
DeleteWhere is this Chinese population in Hungary? Is it Budapest?
DeleteHungary has invested a lot into those flights, same like with Sarajevo.
DeleteThe first flight to Chongqing had like 25 passengers.
Guys don't forget that Hungary is in the Schengen zone meaning passengers can start their journey there. I am sure BUD gave them a much better price than VIE which before covid had no more space. Budapest was an entry point for many of these Chinese. Many tour operators sell Budapest and Vienna as a single tour.
DeleteTo get transfer passengers Beijing would make more sense though, simple codeshare with Air China or China Southern would transfer the pax to SHA, CAN, and other chinese places...
ReplyDeleteAnyway it would still be hard to compete with Turkish Airlines for this traffic, hence I don't see it as a profitable operation for JU...
+100
DeleteNot only TK, but SU, QR, FZ, LH, LO, OS... i dont think these chinese routes would have positive impact on JU at all. It is better to have chinese airlines to operate these then JU.
I honestly believe this is more the sign for Air Serbia to start flying to Shaghai than for any Chinese carrier to start flying to BEG.
ReplyDeleteIt is obvious that second wide body will be introduced to JU fleet in next few years and they will use it to fly together with YU-ARA to JFK, YYZ and PVG. Later on maybe ORD as well depending from the flying schedule.
At some point they should replace ARA which is getting "oldish"
DeleteIt is getting replaced in April.
DeleteIt looks like Belgrade is turning into the new Vancouver- which had similar Chinese investments 25 years ago! Watch the number of flights skyrocket - along with property values.
ReplyDeleteWow, truly one of the more bizarre comments seen here.
DeleteNovi Vankuver
DeleteWhat we all forget are transfer passengers that could use JU european network to reach their final destination via BEG. PEK-BEG-VIE for example or any other.
ReplyDeleteSo not only that chinese visiting Serbia could use a flight, but also transfers would work well.
In my opinion, one additional A330 would do great with 2PW Beijing and 3PW Shanghai, while during winter 2PW Beijing, 2PW Shanghai and 1PW Sanya.
When JU establish its routes with China maybe there will be option for additional A330 (or bigger).
Please keep in mind "owner" or BEG who wants this even more that JU