Ryanair yesterday announced the opening of its base in Zagreb this September with the launch of twelve new routes, however, the airline plans to significantly grow its network from the Croatian capital in the years to come with a number of new destinations already planned for the summer of 2022. Ryanair’s Director for Commercial, Jason McGuinnes, noted the airline plans to offer up to forty new routes from Zagreb and become both the city’s and country’s largest carrier. “We will grow exponentially in the years to come. We plan to operate thirty to forty routes and handle two to three million passengers. This will transform Zagreb, transform tourism, accommodation, hotels, taxi operators… Basically everything. We will become the largest airline in Zagreb and Croatia within a very short period of time”.
Ryanair’s CEO, Eddie Wilson, noted that Zagreb took the initiative in attracting the no frills airline to the city. “The key for Zagreb is going to be the number of airports we have on offer in Europe. We made a bold decision to launch a base straight away. This shows our confidence in Zagreb with a two aircraft base”, Mr Wilson said. Commenting on the potential launch of domestic flights within Croatia, the CEO noted that while it is of interest to the airline, it is not a priority. “We have no plans just yet for domestic flights, however, it is something we will look at. Short flights enable us to have better utilisation of aircraft. But we will concentrate on international flights for now”, Mr Wilson added.
The General Manager of Zagreb Airport, Huseyin Bahadir Bedir, said that becoming a Ryanair base was a strategic decision in order to elevate the airport into a regional hub and speed up its recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. “We have worked on different business models and scenarios to overcome the coronavirus Covid-19 pandemic. We are more than happy to become the home of Europe’s number one airline. We will stimulate the number of tourists visiting this lovely city. The coast has been the driver of tourism in the country, but we think it is time for Zagreb to be a part of that as well”, the General Manager said.
Could ZAG reach 6 million passengers by 2025?
ReplyDeleteNope because Ou will go bankrupt by then and FR will chase many others away
DeleteWhy will OU go bankrupt?
DeleteBecause they are a dinosaur that has not reformed itself despite having enough time to do so? I am referring to the years of protectionism they enjoyed at ZAG.
Deletewell no company will reform without pressure. This will change it and they will have to adapt.
DeleteProactive companies survive. Not reactive ones. And there's only one somewhat proactive one in this region.
DeleteIt depends on whether they passed the point of no return. That is if the situation has gotten so bad that it's not worth investing all that money in trying to save them. OU lacks critical mass to survive when faced with FR.
DeleteThat's what saved JU in many markets where they faced competition: transfer passengers.
@Nemjee
Delete+1000
That's what I was permanently saying here and being spit at by uhljebs and fanboys
While JU is NOT the topic of conversation today, I am curious to better understand Nemjee's comment about transfer pax saving JU - since he raised JU not me. In fact, if it had "saved" JU, they would have been making money. Let's be honest here - what saved JU, is the Govt of Serbia, not anything else.
DeleteIn my humble opinion, now is the time for OU to press the long haul button and to develop flights to Nth America. That won't compete against the Ryanair juggernaut and will help them to develop transfer traffic within a 2-3 hr zone from ZAG that will want to fly long haul. There is no money in playing in the short haul transfer space.
When Nemjee said transfers "saved" JU, I'm sure he didn't imply JU was profitable today, but that its losses were manageable and decreasing every year, with LCC competition somewhat at bay. With OU we see the opposite trend - their losses are persistent despite several restructuring efforts, the core of their business model is based on hubs of other companies, and they lose market share every time they are attacked while not attacking anyone on their own.
DeleteAs for OU going long-haul, they don't have the short-haul feeder network for it, plus LH would never allow it considering the lucrative joint venture they have with UA.
Since JU seems to be an extremely controversial topic on here let's take some other examples. Both airBaltic and Aegean had to face a great deal of competition from LCC at their home markets. Both of them have a hub and spoke system in place meaning that when FR and others moved in (in an extremely aggressive manner), the loss of O&D passengers was compensated by transfers that continued their journey beyond Riga or Athens.
DeleteNo airline, including FR and W6, can dump prices indefinitely. That means that both BT and A3 weathered the storm thanks to a steady flow of transfers until their competition had to stabilize their operations and boost their yields.
Look at Austrian Airlines. Do you honestly think they could have survived an almost immediate attack by Level, Lauda and Wizz Air if they didn't have such an extensive network? A constant flow of transfers filled the seats that were emptied by the arrival of LCCs. That's how OS managed to keep so many flights while Wizz Air discontinued ALL flights from VIE from October to mid-December.
If that's not enough for you then take Etihad and Wizz Air in AUH. Once again, Wizz Air might attack them left and right but they will still have a source of income that's beyond W6's reach.
That is where OU is exposed the most. FR will attack them in some key markets and since they don't have a serious regional network to feed these flights, they will have to sink low to FR's level and to match their prices. Do you honestly think they can do that? Their cost structure and their expenses are nowhere near FR's.
" A constant flow of transfers filled the seats that were emptied by the arrival of LCCs. That's how OS managed to keep so many flights while Wizz Air discontinued ALL flights from VIE from October to mid-December."
DeleteYou forgot to mention the multi-hundred million state aid package :)
This is exactly what I wrote down in yesterday's comment. OU was stagnating for years and not being aggressive enough to fight for the transfers passengers.
DeleteNo one on here wants OU to collapse and be another aviation company to succumb because of the incompetent management.
We all want for OU to succeed and fly for many decades to come because there is a market for them on here but sadly it is not moving towards that scenario.
Why? Because OU hasn't down anything drastic for years to show us that they are the warriors and they can compete with other players. This is a wake up call I'm afraid. They've been making losses even before the coronavirus pandemic. This is probably they last hope to wake up and fight for they survivals.
They can do this if they're willing to do so by cutting half of OU force, open new routes to bring transfers to ZG and fly long haul towards Canada at first. Yes, they should hire a bigger plane and fly to Canada before JU introduces this routes. And boy JU is aiming for this believe me especcialy now that the market is not covered for any of us ex-Yu passengers. They should also start flying towards the Russia, Ukraine, ME, North Africa etc. The market is there if they willing to fight for another day as long as the management is replaced by someone who will be aggressive and proactive.
Will the real pozdrav from Rijeke please stand up. ;)
DeleteAnon 11.18
DeleteOf course but we must keep in mind that they got it because of covid's crippling effect on civil aviation. However, one can also argue that they would need a lot more cash to survive if they didn't have that extra income from transfer passengers.
I
I am here and I sign under every single word @An.11.30 wrote
Delete@Nemjee:
DeleteHow much money per aircraft based in VIE did Wizz get from Austrian government?
Wizz Air didn't get anything from the Austrian government, they got massive discounts from the Vienna Airport.
DeleteThen again, would be great to know how much Orban paid them for those China flights.
11:30 AM was my comment Mr. 11:53 AM, not Pozdrav iz Rijeke.
DeleteI'm sure many of us would agree with my comment, as long as your ex-Yu aviation enthusiast and not a hater.
Haters gonna hate, lovers gonna love.
Greetings from London.
wow this will be a real gamechanger for Zagreb
ReplyDeleteGreat news for ZAG but this is not looking good for Croatia Airlines.
ReplyDeleteDepends how innovative they are. You could also argue that competition has a positive affect on OU if they decice to also take bold measure and adapt to new realities.
DeleteAre you kiddin'? OU and innovative in the same sentence? Joke of the year!!!!
DeleteMore like joke of the decade.
DeleteSounds nice but let's wait and see. For now this is only PR.
ReplyDeleteDoubt it. They signed an agreement with the city which likely outlines how many routes they have to add each year during the duration of the contract. That's how most of their contracts work.
Deleteits usually Ryanair that dictates the contracts and not cities/airports.
DeleteIf the base is working for them they will add more ... as simple as that.
Well a contract has been made and the CEO of Ryanair said they are adding many new routes next year. So obviously what they dictated is to expand year on year.
Deletesure but it can also be only PR :)
DeleteWell then for your peace of mind, let's hope it's PR :)
DeleteFR are very good at it though
DeleteI'd also be careful with these PR fluff pieces, they are riding the wave of excitement right now and are throwing statements around.
DeleteEvery market out there, whether it is Kraljevo or London, has a certain market size which is based on O&D demand. This size can grow organically and it usually does at a modest, steady annual rate. This can only change if an airline starts offering connections and uses transfers to inflate demand. That is how small and insignificant airports become global hubs.
I think FR will do just fine in ZAG, at least when it comes to their own interests and goals. If they plan on having 40 routes then it begs the question what will happen to others who currently fly to ZAG? Will five daily to FRA become sustainable now when mandatory one stop flights will be offered nonstop? One good thing is that prices will drop, some will come and some will leave.
Sofia is a good example of what might happen in ZAG. Numbers will boom at first until they stabilize at a certain level. The only uncertainty here is what this certain level will be for ZAG.
Hopefully ZAG won't make the same mistake as BUD which trashed its yields in order to attract customers in a post-Malev world. I think it took them over a decade of losses to achieve some sort of profitability.
You are right. In fact they are not launching flights to Zagreb at all, it was just for PR...
DeleteHe did not say that, no need to get fussy. What comment do you have regarding ZAG-SOF comparison?
DeleteNemjee, SOF stabilised because of the fierce competition with W6. Don't forget they usually deploy the bigger 321s on busier routes. They know the market quite well because they are operating since 2005, while FR just started in 2016 and PDV back in 2010.
DeleteIf W6 enter ZAG, it will be quite difficult for them to expand. After all, W6 is the Eastern European specialist.
SOF stabilized because both FR and W6 could no longer dump prices and some common sense had to be restored. Both airlines adjusted their offer to the demand and some routes were cut and prices increased.
DeleteSomeone posted yesterday that FR is offering €39.99 prices which is a bit more than what they offer elsewhere. They know the market and know that there is no need to go lower since your competition will lose so much money if they tried to match them. Imagine someone like Lufthansa selling flights for €40 which also includes the airport tax. It would be a disaster for them.
Now if they were facing someone like Wizz Air in ZAG then this €39.99 would have been €9.99.
Cheapest LH return flight from ZAG to FRA in September is €195! :D
DeleteThat's for the whole month. ryanair will destroy them.
Its not the same airport and not the same customer. Im sure current passengers on FRA flights are transfers ...
DeleteDon't forget that LH relies on transfers.
DeleteSomehow I have a hard time believing that five or six daily flights between ZAG and FRA are only for transfers. I am sure at least two could be filled with O&D alone.
DeleteRyanair won't be much cheaper then 195 euros once luggage etc is added.
DeleteMy friend, Lufthansa is €195 without luggage.
DeleteI just checked ZAG-HHN on 1st/8th October, with 1 checked bag. €123.96 return.
DeleteCheapest OU tickets on same dates, €231.21. If you buy through LH website, it's €224.06.
So ballpark about 100 EUR/pax difference, IF you need a checked-in bag.
Many will use this, I can see people going from the city of Frankfurt to take this flight without a problem. Who wants to fly on an old A319 or a worn out Q400 when you can fly on a more comfy B737.
DeleteSo, Zagreb is going to be dominated by a LCC, like e.g. Charleroi?
ReplyDeleteExciting times definitely coming for ZAG.
ReplyDeleteFantastic news
ReplyDeleteWhat are the next routes we could see from them.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is Spain will be included next to the network.
DeleteProbably similar routes that were announced yesterday from Zadar.
DeleteAthens hopefully.
Deletecould Berlin work?
Deletelook at SKP and BEG (theor Wizz network) then you will see
DeleteZadar is leissure, ZAG is more gasto
My guess is that MMX will be among the first in the next wave of announcements.
Deleteyes Berlin could work but its already served with OU => no incentives for FR
DeleteAnon 09:38 since when?
DeleteBerlin was operated by Eurowings before it decided to shut down its base there.
Just look at FR's biggest bases in the EU and the UK.
DeleteExpect them to all be served by ZAG.
Berlin, Malmö, Basel ... as for ExYu i see potential for SKP route but again no incentives there because of the OU route
DeleteI wonder if this development may cause the real estate prices (especially at the center) to hike, as there will be a huge demand for private accommodation.
ReplyDelete"Short flights enable us to have better utilisation of aircraft. But we will concentrate on international flights for now”, Mr Wilson added."
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing this is why Podgorica was introduced. If they don't go for domestic flights they will maybe introduce Bucharest or Sofia next.
domestic flights are not a "priority" because they will not get incentives for them. ;)
DeleteCome on its Ryanair
Yes it's Ryanair, thanks God Croatia Airlines receives no aid, LOL. For the money pumped in OU over these 30 years, with results close to ZERO, any other company would have done miracles.
DeleteDid OU CEO make a statement?
DeleteDomestic market in OU is too small for FR and the road network is well developed, if we take into acount the Peljesac bridge when it will be built. Yesterday someone was comparing Croatia to Romania and Poland - those countries have nearly 5 or 10 times the population of Croatia, respectively.
DeleteThe only thing that would make sense perhaps is OSI-SPU/DBV, but is there enough demand to fill 180+ seat aircraft? Probably not.
The road network may be well developed between ZAG and the coast, but it also happens to be very expensive. You can't really do Zagreb-Split and back by car for less than 100 EUR - and that's assuming you have a car to begin with, which not everyone does. I'm sure that if Ryan offered ZAG-SPU flights for 20-30 EUR each way, the uptake would be significant.
DeleteAnd if you go to Dubrovnik by car you need to pay up to 40 euro per day for parking in the in the center only
Deletegood that they are telling Wizzair their plans :D :D
ReplyDeleteIn the case of Wizz, you snooze you loose.
DeleteIt could also be a tactic to warn off Wizz from thinking of starting flights :)
Deletewhat if Wizz announces a base too knowing FR's planes ?
Deleteif Wizz is interested in ZAG they will start flights just like they did in other cities in East Europe
DeleteJust wait a couple of days and wizz will announce plenty of new ZAG services ;)
DeleteI personally think that W6 will strike back and will not leave FR get away with it. They recently launched a base in Palermo and expanded even more in Tirana. My guess that they might jump into the London route and launch LTN or even LGW.
DeleteIt's great to see that not all routes are 2x weekly. Best of all is the daily London service.
ReplyDeleteThat is a huge amount of routes! They will cover whole of Europe.
ReplyDeleteBye bye OU
ReplyDeleteMore like bye bye LJU
DeleteUnless LJU invites Wizz Air.
DeleteThis is ideal for recovery from covid.
ReplyDeleteI would say bye bye LJU, rather than bye bye OU. Looking at the airports Ryanair announced yesterday, it is obvious that they are not launching any flights to the airports OU operates from ZAG. We all know that OU was dead in London since Kucko sold the slots. For Paris there are 14 weekly flights by OU and AF to CDG (and AF was trying to double operations prior to pandemic), FR will add 2 only to BVA, 80 km. far from Paris. For Frankfurt there are 35 weekly flights by OU and LH to FRA and FR will add 3 to HHN, 120 km. from Frankfurt. For Munich there are normally 28 weekly by OU and LH to MUC, and FR will add 2 flights to FMM, 110 km. from Munich... And the list goes like this. If someone thinks that this is competition and would bring OU to its knees, I'd laugh only.
ReplyDeleteIf OU goes bankrupt it'll be purely its own incompetence, not due to the competition with Ryanair, cause there's no competition in this scenario.
I agree. Still, they have main hubs and connection flights.
DeleteOU is not dead in London. Most flights operate at 100% capacity. They made a big mistake selling those slots especially when they were making a profit on that route, although they made out they wearn't to justify selling them.
DeleteMate, with these flights OU is a goner. As someone who lives in London I can tell you that whoever has money they migrated to BA.
DeleteGood luck to ZAG and FR!
ReplyDeleteIf you are wondering why they are waiting for September then this should give you an answer:
ReplyDeleteBRU 11
OSI 1
CPH 21
AMS 55
ZRH 22
FRA 88
OU loads this morning
I think Hahn will be a hit for FR!
DeleteOh my, that is bad...
DeleteThat's why most airlines aren't in a sure to start ramping up flights - demand is extremely low due all the travel restrictions in place.
Deletetypo: in a rush
DeleteLove the one passenger to OSI :D
DeleteHe had a private flight.
OU does not operate OSI flight.
DeleteTrade Air does for them, it's a code-share flight. OU had one passenger on the flight.
DeleteNo, Trade Air had one passenger on flight.
DeleteFor all those fearing OU going bankrupt, there is no room to worry. Tarom, Air Baltic, Bulgaria Air never went bankrupt even though the 2 latter are not backed by the government.
ReplyDeleteWhat's more, they were forced to enhance their fleets and adapt to the fierce LCC competition.
OU will focus on its transfer traffic via Germany and the domestic routes where they will face zero competition. As for O&D, they will simply lower the prices and deploy bigger planes on routes with more demand: FRA, LON, etc.
ZAG will finally be more accessible to reach to although it is important to connect the Iberian Peninsula and more UK/Ireland cities: LGW, MAN, EDI, DUB.
Estonian, Malev, Spanair, Cyprus Airways, Montenegro Airlines all say hello.
DeleteBulgaria Air is a "special project". Air Baltic is 96% government-owned and has received plenty of state aid throughout the years.
DeleteWhat do you mean by "special project"?
DeleteLook up TIM Group, that should be enough to start.
DeleteBravo Ryanair! Going straight for OU's jugular! OU has limited options. They didn't build a regional hub model and now is too late with JU owning that space. Seasonal charters have been dominated by other carriers. Long haul is already taken by other carriers except New York, and with AA+UA getting 100 A321XLRs that hole will be filled by 2025. ZAG to Europe will be cheaper with FR than OU, and with announced domestic flying OU is going to be in ruins. The only remaining option is OU being a feeder to LH hubs, but that didn't save Adria and it certainly won't save Croatia Airlines. Now it's just a matter of how long will it take for OU to disappear?
DeleteAs far as i understand discounted prices are only for new routes, so until than OU is safe ... that's why i say 40 new routes is PR. But i think what they have in mind is simple:
Delete1 step - 12 routes in 2021.
2 step - watch closely OU and government help in future (and report them)
3 step - drive OU to go bust
4 step - opening ex OU destinations
Bravo Hrvatska!
ReplyDeleteWow, wow, wow!
ReplyDeleteZAG should do a deal with AirAsiaX or Scoot and get low cost long-haul flights from Singapore and Malaysia.
ReplyDeleteI believe flights like this would do extremley well in both directions.