Very good numbers for Korean air in Zagreb , 91% in September, October over 86%, larger plane sent in Mid October onwards.

September A330 200 - 218 seats
October 15 - Aribus A330 300 - 276 seats
I think B777 200ER starts from this month. with 261 seats.

The way they are going, they could add more frequencies next summer, or increase capacity.

Good news for ZAG

Korean plans winter 2019/20 flights to operate without Zurich stop and in summer 2020 to fly 5 per week flights to Zagreb. Same number as Air Canada Rouge which plan to introduce 2 flights per week in winter 2019/20.

Amazing! Heard they are gonna up the capas for Summer 2019 to 773 or even 748.

They really contributed to Zagreb Airport's growth. Without them growth in September would have been just 3% in September and 5% in October.

How do you know whose going to operate what and how in a years time?

Some sources on another forum said that they dont plan to increase ZAG frequencies, but could send larger plane.

I think rather than adding more frequencies to Zagreb, they might launch Dubrovnik as well.

Impressive numbers I have to say, for just two month of operations.

Would love to see the B747-8 docked in ZAG :)

And as far as I remember they didn't put tickets on sale too early in advance either.

The maximum number of frequencies they can operate is 5 per week. That's how much they got the rights to operate.

Which has a greater chance of seeing Korean Air - Dubrovnik or Split?

Not surprising. With 500,000 visitors from Korea it's baffling they didn't launch the route earlier.

wasn't this the same as when Emirates started flying to ZAG?
And now they ended up with Flydubai....

EK obsession saga continues...

Actually there is a significant difference, mainly that Korean Air started ops. outside of the height of the summer season and that it started much more cautiously and was much wiser with lower frequency and lower capacity aircraft. In winter they also carry passengers to Zurich on this route.

That’s a lot of Korean tourists. Koreans are also big spenders so it's a good group to attract.

So there are more Korean tourists in Croatia than from the US and Canada? Correct?

It would be very interesting if we see Asiana also start flights to ZAG.

A 748 docked on one bridge, would be 1st ever on earth...

Logical

Bravo Hrvatska!

These are great figures so far. Very smart planning from Korean to launch the route in September.

They currently have a codeshare with Croatia Airlines from western European cities.

You got to wonder where is Croatia Airlines to benefit from tourism growth and to benefit from markets like Korea, Japan, China, US, Canada...

Nowhere. They are preparing to lease two CRJ1000s for a third year in a row and swap around some intra European routes. Incompetent.

It's a pity that ZAG, being a new airport does isn't capable of handling the A380. We could witness it landing in ZAG and only BUD would envy ZAG for acheiving such a milestone in its regional profile.
The same applies for EK. Both KE and EK are A380 operators.

I don't think the market is that strong enough yet to sustain two carriers. Mayabe in 2-3 years.

These are great numbers. Personally I don't think we will see increase in frequency or some major increase in capacity any time soon. Despite great loads, 99% of passengers on this route are just incoming tourists from Korea and this is unlikely to change, which means passenger numbers will stay roughly the same. There isn't much traffic from Croatia being generated by this route, other than tourists going home. We will see. But so far so good.

They could start Dubrovnik.

Vratimo se osnovama......
Aerodrom je isti, stari......novi je samo terminal na aerodromu.

Brač

Do we know how many seats are blocked for ZAG and how many for ZRH this winter?

I also think Croatia Airlines should have leased a widebody some years ago. Not only could they have expanded internationally and reaped the benefits of Croatian tourism but also they could have fed their European network.

OU is a regional player and as such it does its job.
Aegean also does not have transantlantic flights or flights to Asia and yet it does a good job in the tourism industry in Greece.

I would agree with you but difference is Aegean has 50 planes and 140 destinations. Croatia Airlines has 12. Unlike Croatia Airlines, Aegean has not received state money for over 2 decades.

Also Aegean has branched out and flies some long flights with narrowbodies. They has a good network in the Middle East and rather than just focusing on P2P they also fly a lot of transfers.

Some lessons could be learned from them, that I agree.

I don't think any seats are blocked.

haha :D

Agree with anon 9.11. I thought the first airport to likely receive a connection to Seoul would be DBV considering most Koreans go there in Croatia.

Dubrovnik definitely.

in all their adds for the Zagreb flights they actually used Dubrovnik.

Presumably, once Zagreb is well established they will start Dubrovnik.

Wish them luck. I think they have a very good chance of doing well on this route long-term.

That is very likely, if we assume they'll maintain over 80% load factor, and all indications they will, there's a good chance they'll 4th weekly flights in 2020 with B787 year round. They're starting flights with B787 900 in Early January, three times per week. In 2019 if we amuse weekly flights continue at present rate x3x52- 312x261x80% = 65400 pax on the route.

Adding additional rotations would increase the capacity by around a third.

2020: flights per week
4x52x2x261x85% = 92290 seats,

2020: 5 flights per week
5x52x2x261x85% = 115360

I guess ideal scenario would be 4 rotations in 2020, and 5 in 2021, 6 in 2022 and daily in 2023. So far most visitors are Koreans, a vast majority or around 85% are from S. Korea, some 15% are everyone else, including 5% of Croatians visiting S. Korea, Japan and China.

Surprisingly there's large number of Australians and Kiwis on these flights as well, 7-8%, a few Japanese and few Chinese. Indications are, if ANA and China Eastern start flying to Zagreb directly, there'll be no risk of market saturation.

Croatian Tourist board just released latest statistics on visitor numbers.


Non European visitors 2018/1-10:

USA - 568.584
S. Korea - 360.002
Australia - 239.448
China - 217.553
Canada - 175.562
Japan - 148.273
Taiwan - 116.253
Brazil - 64.765
India - 62.388
Argentina - 52.593
Singapore - 45.894
New Zealand - 42.664
Malaysia - 38.543
Hong Kong - 32.035
Thailand - 34.869
South Africa - 24.646
Mexico - 16.942
ME/UAE/Qatar/Kuwait - ~24 000
Chile - 13.198
Indonesia: 11.512

Projections for entire 2018:

Non European visitors 2018/1-9:

USA - 600.000
Korea - 450.000 (Koreans travel more in winters)
Australia - 270.000
China - 250.000
Canada - 200.000
Japan - 175.000
Taiwan - 125.000
Brazil - 70.000
India - 66.000
Argentina - 57.000
Singapore - 47.000
New Zealand - 47.000
Malaysia - 40.000
Hong Kong - 35.000
Thailand - 37.000
South Africa - 27.000
Mexico - 20.000
ME/UAE/Qatar/Kuwait - ~26 000
Chile - 15.000
Indonesia: 12.000




Projections for 2019:

Non European visitors 2018/1-9:

USA - 720.000
S. Korea - 500.000
Australia -325.000
China - 350.000
Canada - 255.000
Japan - 200.000
Taiwan - 150.000
India - 95.000
Brazil - 87.000
Argentina - 72.000
Singapore - 58.000
New Zealand - 57.000
Malaysia - 50.000
Hong Kong - 45.000
Thailand - 45.000
South Africa - 35.000
Mexico - 25.000
Chile - 20.000
UAE - 16.000
Indonesia: 16.000
Qatar - 12.000

Korean Air has a really good on board product. Their pitch in economy is 34', which is almost as much as some airline’s premium economy product.

Will be nice seeing their B787 parked at the gate in two months.

No not on earth, but in EX-YU ;)

What's most important is that this is a year round route, which is good to see.

HM, you're now assuming, I don't think they'll go 5 times per week from current 3, at most they'll go with 4 weekly flights, and year after if numbers are good, to 5. However, yes I agree Zurich flights will be abandoned in 2019/2020 winter schedule, as is now Zagreb flights are almost full, did some calculations and in September the load factor was 91.4% and in October 86.3%. If this continues on and indications are it will, Korean air might give up on Zurich this winter, however, Zurich is attractive destination and they'll need to figure out how to cover that destination without loosing Vienna, Barcelona, Zagreb or Prague. 3rd Korean Restaurant to open in Zagreb, and 2nd only Korean Hostel to open soon. On another note, 2nd Hilton hotel opened in Zagreb, 150 room/suit 5* Hotel on Branimirova Ulica, plans for 3rd Hilton hotel in Zagreb are underway and 7-8 4-5 * hotels under construction as we speak. Hotel Admiral, 4* hotel and Casino opened also, but its ugly as hell,designed like Las Vegas brothel. no comment.

ended up with Flydubai....? Yes for the slowest Months they will rationalise capacity and then be back with the daily B773 from March until at least December 2019. Basically the same rational beahviour KE is showing by linking ZAG up with ZRH.

The few remaining long haul carriers in EX-Yu could not even make that work...

No seats are blocked! They are dynamically distributed according to demand and bookings. at some point it may be 50% of cap, at other 90%.

No, it would be first on earth. They usually use two air bridges at least.

Oh that is what you meant :D but also ok ;)

Would be interesting to see how many premium passengers there are on these flights.

No. Only more than Canadians.

USA - 568.584
S. Korea - 360.002
Australia - 239.448
China - 217.553
Canada - 175.562

That's generous.

Well done Zagreb!

Hopefully although for variety it would be nice seeing Asiana there.

B787-9 :)

I do wonder if the number of tourists from Korea will actually increase because of this new line.

Just to remind you

Emirates from March to December - 8 months per year
flydubai from December do March - just 4 months

and frequency is 7 flights per week all year!!!!!

Aegean gets PSO for flights to some islands inside Greece, just like Croatia does, but Aegena gets several times more. No other subventions are allowed and are not given to Aegean or Croatia.

How many millions did Croatia Airlines receive before Croatia entered the EU? And the government keeps guaranteeing loans for them?

Aegean did not have that luxury.

Totally not true. Next summer A332 3pw and next winter is already on sale again eith Zurich 3pw.

Of course it will. Just like it was with Air Transat and Air Canada

777 today

Most probably because there are people that only fly if they have a direct flight.

@"Anonymous14 November 2018 at 09:06
Amazing! Heard they are gonna up the capas for Summer 2019 to 773 or even 748."

NO, B787 900 remains for duration, it offers 269 seats, 6 first class, 18 prestige sleeper and 245 economy seats. Sending Boeing 747-400 or Boeing 747-8I with 48 prestige sleeper and 12 first class would be hard sell, they can fill B787 900 with 18 prestige and 6 first class, but B744 or 748 is not possible, these aircraft are meant to fly to places like LA, SF, Shanghai, London. There's no chance for A380 to Zagreb either, 94 prestige sleeper seats, and 12 first class, 304 economy. They make a killing on these flights to various mega cities Korean flies to, the last thing would Korean do is fly that thing to a small city like Zagreb.

Next market from which Zagreb should attract airlines from is Japan. Great work from Korean.

@Anonymous14 November 2018 at 09:15

Seasonal Charter flights to Dubrovnik are possible, but only after 2020, perhaps 2022, or after.

Great news. Looking forward to see this route develop further.

It's a surprise to see that their Zurich route is struggling that they have to link it with another one.

Isn't Zagreb extending the terminal this year and adding extra jetways? The one they plan to add first is a 'double jetway'.

@10:16- do you know how many changes ther will be until then? :D

PRG has a daily 747-8. So there would be no problem in filling it also to ZAG 3 per week.

Aegean is also not the one to be compared to OU. You can gladly compare Olympic to OU.

And Olympic got a hundredfold of OU got.

Highly speculative here, but 2020 figures, why not, to round things up.

Non European visitors 2020: Only countries with over 10 000 visitors

USA - 850.000
S. Korea - 550.000
China - 500.000
Australia - 400.000
Canada - 325.000
Japan - 250.000
Taiwan - 200.000
India - 145.000
Brazil - 110.000
Argentina - 87.000
Singapore - 70.000
New Zealand - 70.000
Malaysia - 70.000
Thailand - 70.000
Hong Kong - 55.000
South Africa - 50.000
Mexico - 35.000
Chile - 25.000
UAE - 22.000
Indonesia: 20.000
Qatar - 16.000
All Other non-European visitors: 200 000
total in 2020: ~4.2 million non European visitors, total visitors expected ~ 21 million in 2020, including 2 million domestic visitors.

4.2/19 = 22% of all foreign visitors not from Europe.

Nice. ZAG can certainly be regarded the most successful airport in EX-YU concerning wide body regular ops.

EK B773
KE B772 / B789
AC B763
TS A333

@Anonymous14 November 2018 at 10:32

Korean?

Well they were flying to Prague for many years, by now they're established there, Zagreb just started, don't see them sending 748 any time soon.

@Anonymous14 November 2018 at 09:22
It would be very interesting if we see Asiana also start flights to ZAG.

No chance, where Asiana flies Korean doesn't, and vice versa. i guess there's a deal between the two.

@Anonymous14 November 2018 at 09:31

A380 can land @Zagreb, no problem, can't dock to the terminal as it lacks proper gates. ;)

@Anonymous14 November 2018 at 10:17
Of course it will. Just like it was with Air Transat and Air Canada

Yeah number of Canadian visitors did really jump, my projection was 175 000 for entire 2018, latest data shows that's how many Canadians visited in first 10 months. 200 000 Canadians now expected to visit Croatia.

@ 10: 44 Asiana and Korean fly both to: LAX, SFO, NYC, FRA, LHR, CDG, FCO and many others. So if Korean proves popular there are certainly chances for Asiana to start. Same as with TS and AC.

Or 2024 or after. Or 2026. ...

O mlikaikruvati

ANA in the pipeline..

Ahhhhh....

So approximately 5 thousand pax every month until 2018

So the rough estimations are as follows:

2019 - 60,000
2020 - 95,000
2021 - 133,500
2022 - 205,300
2023- 300,000
2024 - 333,750
2025 - 420,000

If ZAG handles 5 million by 2025 this means that the Koreans will represent almost 8% market share in ZAG, which means up to 5 weekly flights easily doable even flying 787-900.

Nice! :)

PRG is 3 pw during the winter with 787, and 747 4pw during the summer.

@Q40014 November 2018 at 10:30
Isn't Zagreb extending the terminal this year and adding extra jetways? The one they plan to add first is a 'double jetway'.

We don't know yet, there was plan to expand the terminal by two new wide body gates, i.e one for B777/A380, but there's talk expansion won't happen before airport hits 5 million pax. However, as part of the agreement with the government terminal must be expanded to its full planned expansion which is phase 2D, and 300 000sqm apron, and they operator must complete all the work by Jan 1st. 2032.

This:
http://hajdasdoncic.hr/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/radovi-faze-2.png

Well done Zagreb. Hopefully we get some new announcements for 2019.

@Anonymous14 November 2018 at 10:53

You're comparing Zagreb with likes of London, seriously man, no chance of Asiana in Zagreb. in terms of Korean visitors, Zagreb is like Prague 5 years ago, does Asiana fly to Prague ?

@"Anonymous14 November 2018 at 11:12
So approximately 5 thousand pax every month until 2018

So the rough estimations are as follows:

2019 - 60,000
2020 - 95,000
2021 - 133,500
2022 - 205,300
2023- 300,000
2024 - 333,750
2025 - 420,000"

How you got to 420 000 per year, no idea. there's little chance of Korean air handling @Zagreb more than 150-200 000 pax per year, even with daily flights. Zagreb isn't London, NYC or LA have such a huge demand, there's a demand, but not that huge, 200k is at most Zagreb can hope by 2025, with Korean Air.

so:

2019: 65-70k
2020: 95-100k
2021: 115-120k
2022: ~150k
2023: ~175k - possibe start of seasonal charters to Dubrovnik, around 12 charters...
2024: ~190k
2025: ~200k

Oh my god, either you cannot read or are not very good in logics.
I was simply correcting Anon. 10:44, who claimed that "No chance, where Asiana flies Korean doesn't, and vice versa. i guess there's a deal between the two."

Then I said that TS and AC also fly to ZAG parallel from exactly the SAME destination - and your comment is "You're comparing Zagreb with likes of London, seriously man, no chance of Asiana in Zagreb. in terms of Korean visitors, Zagreb is like Prague 5 years ago, does Asiana fly to Prague ?" :D :D Does AC and TS fly to PRG?

Ok then TS and AC it must be a fata morgana in ZAG.

do you have it also for 2050?

year-round?

Yes, sure
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/passenger-aircraft/a380-family/airlines-destinations/airport-compatibility.html

what is the obsession with year round here on the forum?

Better seasonal for many decades then year round for one year... ;)

What is your obsession with Serbia?

+1

Its not struggling, Korean is betting the two destinations will be more successful over low period. So Korean is playing safe. Will they continue the same next year, we'll see how well Zagreb performs this year, so far numbers are very good, first two months 10 000pax, November - March might be bit less cause of Zurich, after all the traffic is split, so Zagreb will be around 40-50% of the total pax or around 100-125 pax per plane, I know not ideal, but this is what happens when you combine two destinations.

When a direct flight tokyo - zagreb is expected? It has already been announced.

Announced where? What are you taking about?

They have good loads, right...but at what price?

Same as Air Canada 5th frequency, announced already but still not confirmed.

Announced where?!?!

? What do you want to say?

Nebuloze. Announced znaci da imamo let. Nitko ga (jos) nije najavio.

Air Transat starts with just 1 flight per week 3 years ago
Next year we will have Air Transat and Air Canada Rouge 7 flights per week.

Korean tourists 8 times more than Canadian so how comes it is not real that there would be two carriers with more than 3 flights per week?

Croatia has no guarantees for loans.

http://www.mppi.hr/default.aspx?id=36465

Zagreb-Shanghai-Zagreb 21.10. - 3.11.
Emirates via Dubai 599 EUR - BOUGHT!
Lufthansa via Frankfurt 593 EUR
Turkish via Istanbul 774 EUR
Korean via Seoul 788 EUR
...so it was not so cheap option. Almost 200 EUR more than Emirates or Lufthansa.

Let´s be serious... Have you looked at the destinations ANA is flying to in Europe?
Chances to see ANA here in ZAG are like 0

To Shanghai but what about to Seoul?

sorry guys, but that´s all sweet dreams..
We can be happy if KAL will stay in ZAG at all!
Even ZRH can´t make it to get a yearly nonstop flight and VIE has nothing more than 6 weekly B77W in summer and 3 weekly in winter with B772...

Sure. They will definitely shut down one of the best performing international route.

Yes, for now.

Olympic was privatized in 2009, they haven't received state aid in almost a decade. Also, OA is owned by A3.

Nothing is written in the stone.
You have any other smart ones to share?

+100 Anon 13.59

It has been announced by the Japanese ambassador a year ago(i heard this at the croatian chamber of commerce) + in either Jutarnji or vecernji ( article 2 months ago) a direct flight zag - tokyo is under consideration (probably by ANA, but I really do no know for sure).

https://www.exyuaviation.com/2018/05/croatia-seeks-scheduled-japan-flights.html

Article in Jutarnji or vecernji around 23 August 2018-direct flights zag - tokyo , Beijing and toronto have been under consideration

Emirates is offering dirt-cheap prices. Let's see how they're gonna be once they start sending the Max.

...sold at dirt-cheap prices.

Just keep in mind..Loadfactor says nothing about the yield.

So not true. Korean was one of most expensive option for my flight from Zagreb. Even Lufthansa was cheaper. So I choose Emirates. Korean was 200 EUR more expensive.

Even in this decision it said: this is not guarantee. This is just confirmation that they, as public company can take a loan, but in same confirmation it said that this is not guarantee, and that loan was not conditioned with and guarantees.

Nije novi samo terminal, nego i istočni apron, kao i dio taxiwaya.

Today 185 pax from Zagreb to Seaoul via Zurich

And who start this stupid "tko ima većeg" again and again and again!

Koreans don't just travel to Dubrovnik. Zagreb is usually a stop on their itinerary in its own right (just walk around Zagreb Gornji Grad and you will spot Korean tour groups), Plitvice Lakes is popular too and naturally so are the coastal destinations such as Pula, Zadar and of course Dubrovnik. I don't think we will see regular scheduled flights to Dubrovnik though, charters might be a possibility.

Looking at the South East Asia visitor numbers I think a TG service from BKK (tied in with their recently reinstated VIE service, say twice weekly could be an idea). The numbers are there (or getting there) and it could tap into the large Australia/NZ market with the added bonus of TG being in Star Alliance for onward domestic Croatia destinations ... just floating a thought bubble :-)

KE is a high quality airline. My first choice if they are flying on the route I am travelling. Food and service is top notch.

O mlikaikruvati

Maybe Emirates is dirt-cheap in this moment, but for sure Korean is not. And LF is 90%+

And for sure Emirates is not even near to cheapest option during summer. Always cheaper option is Qatar and Turkish, even Aeroflot, Air France and Lufthansa, on some routes even British. And I was surprised to learn that. I was sure Emirates would be the cheapest option for travel to East. And it is not.

So, you should decide eider it is Emirates dirt-cheap, eider Korean, and should dream on. If you really decide to put here real information google is your friend. You can check this in a second and will see that it is not true.

@:Anonymous14 November 2018 at 19:10

I've posted actual figures for foreign visitors to Croatia from non-European destinations.


Non European visitors 2018/1-10:

USA - 568.584
S. Korea - 360.002
Australia - 239.448
China - 217.553
Canada - 175.562
Japan - 148.273
Taiwan - 116.253
Brazil - 64.765
India - 62.388
Argentina - 52.593
Singapore - 45.894
New Zealand - 42.664
Malaysia - 38.543
Hong Kong - 32.035
Thailand - 34.869
South Africa - 24.646
Mexico - 16.942
ME/UAE/Qatar/Kuwait - ~24 000
Chile - 13.198
Indonesia: 11.512


Canadians are in 5th place behind china, australia s. korea and us. I can't see difference being more than double the numbers, 175x8 = 1.4 million, err, you got your maths wrong.
Zagreb won't see Asiana, at least not S. Korean airline in Zagreb any time soon. We can hope Asiana X from Thailand shows up, that'd be something, ey.

Also, Zagreb is served by most major European legacy carriers, so options for S Koreans to visit Croatia are many. if number of S,. Korean visitors exceed 700 000 to Croatia,yes there's a chance for Asiana to come to Zagreb.

I had to fly to KL mid October and the cheapest I could find a week and a half prior was shitty Turkish for €680. Next was Emirates and the most expensive was Qatar, which is usually the cheapest, to my surprise.

Do you have a link to these numbers on a website? Where did you get them as I can't see any press release?

Yes, https://www.htz.hr/hr-HR/informacije-o-trzistima/turizam-u-brojkama

And you have loads of data there, so it might be bit confusing, however everything is there.

Thanks very much! I can find the data for this year, but not for 2019 or 2020, which is what I am looking for - can you post the link to those? Much appreciated.

Of course! Nonstop is always more expensive than onestop.

@Anonymous16 November 2018 at 10:03

2019 and 2020, are my own projections based on current data, data for 2017 and 2018 was used to make some assertion of what is likely visitor numbers for 2019 and 2020.

Japan flights might not happen before 2020, right now we expect around 160 000 Japanese visitors to Croatia in 2018, 185 000 in 2019 and 215 000 in 2020.

I think likely Japanese flights might happen once number of Japanese visitors to Croatia exceeds 200 000. So 2021 or 2022.