Ouch

And people said Slovenia was better off without Adria...

Expected. Hopefully things get better in November.

It is.

Well it seems the management's prediction that they will loose around 100,000 passengers this year will probably be correct.

I think there is going to me a minus in November too.

Yes -40% at LJU is a clear example of it...

LJU slowly sliding into insignificance now that JP is out of the picture. It will be a tiny, regional airport handling around 1.5 million passengers at best.

Without a hub airline operating at LJU numbers will never reach pre Adria levels again. Pax flying from PRN/TIA/SKP etc do not need LJU. It was jus one opportunity. Flying LJU-TIA p2p is sensless because the demand is not to LJU but to other destinations.

It is interesting that the airport isn't thrilled about either a new airline being set up or foreign airlines being subsidized.

"However, it has spoken out against the state’s initial plans of offering subsidies to foreign carriers"

What a different approach compared to Skopje Airport's management :D

Rome wasn't built in a day.

Well it's best for them for one of their shareholders - Lufthansa to take the cake.

Exactly the point to point demand is being well served with the offer right now.

With JU boosting both LJU and TIA, there is no point in seeking nonstop flights. It will never manage to beat the convenience of everyday connections via BEG.

Austrian Airlines being a mess and cutting routes and frequencies left and right, there is no way in Hell they will launch LJU flights. Especially not now when the Q400s are starting to leave the fleet.

Btw in Q1 2020 OS is also reducing TIA from 12 to 11 weekly. I guess Wizz Air hurt them.

There will probably be a minus all the way until June of next year or even later.

People who want to make Air Slovenia a reality disagree with you.

Don't know who would really travel on LJU-TIA P2P.

Why would they be?

So they would end up crediting yet another bankrupt airline in couple of months?

Maybe Rome wasn't but LJU is no Rome. How long have they tried to make LJU relevant? Adria was the last chance they had and they blew it. Unless they become some super big LCC hub, LJU will be a tiny player in the wider region, especially if ZAG ends up opening up to LCCs.

This is the reality.

Wish them good luck.

Which is why they will never be as successful as SKP. At least SKP was realistic about what they had to do. Fraport is disillusioned.

I think that's the first time in a long time that under 100,000 pax were handled in a month.

Sorry to disappoint you but I don't think that will be the case.

There still hasn't been any response from LCCs at Adria going bankrupt.

They will recover. Others will step in.

Without JP that will become the norm.

Like I said before, this goes to show that national carriers do have an important role, despite what many think here.

Anon 9:08

If you expect some great bounce back like in BUD I have bad news...

LJU can matter only if there is a local carrier in Slovenia. Geographical proximity to Venice and Zagreb will have no mercy.

Realistically speaking, what other airlines could we see come to LJU?

This really was their own fault to begin with. The writing had been on the wall for many years and the management refused to diversify.

LJU will recover but this was completely avoidable.

Well Wizz Air is cutting short its Charleroi suspension and resuming the route next month but other than that you are right, there has been no major response from LCCs.

Plus LJU management is pretty stupid not to exploit ZAG's high charges.

Free market in action, nice to see Slovenia making the most of it.

LOL!

How exactly will LJU recover? All they can do is stop the bleed but things will never be the same again.

Hopefully LH group will soften the blow in November.

It must be said that the offer was diversified in last 2 years and LJU's reliance on Adria decreased. They brought LOT, Aeroflot, Transavia...

Things could change quickly if new national airline is set up.

I have news, people of Slovenia (outside of enthusiasts on this forum) don't care about airport numbers (these are all private companies), the one thing they care the most is how this influences their personal budget (and to a bit lesser extend public budget). Nationalistic ideas are very hard to sell nowadays in Slovenia (especially when spending money is involved).

Austrian

The ones that have stepped in have stepped in. I don't think there will be any other major announcements. Airlines have mostly finalised their 2020 summer schedules.

:(

I was expecting more from easyjet to be honest.

In the short term it won't be easy, that's for sure.

It will but not enough to turn a minus into a plus.

What has happened with the planned strike at LJU in November? Has it been called off in light of current circumstances?

There main complaint was that they are working over time. Considering the current situation, they don't have much work at all.

Would make little sense for them to go on strike.

I agree. LJU needs a greater LCC presence.

Norwegian Air Shuttle could start Copenhagen for example.

^ Considering the situation at Austrian and the fact that they have already announced their 2020 summer schedule, I don't think they will launch Ljubljana this summer.

Lower operator charges and provide a scheme for a new carriee to base their operation there.

This isn't the first time this has happened in Europe. Plenty of case studies to analyse incl. Larnaca, Bratislava, Tallinn. The most important thing is to not repeat the same mistake, for example: the government is trying to start an new airline.

Even with Adria, Ljubljana was still missing many major European cities. So this is not good for them.

Who will take over the summer charter flights next year?

Now it is missing even more.

Can anyone estimate what the decline will be in November?

More likely until September.

Management believes it will be reaching these figures by mid 2021.

There will be no LCC expansion in LJU. Why is it so hard to understand? There is no market to fly a full A320/B737 daily to whatever destination you had in mind. I was surprised to see London getting so many pax but apart from that, I see no other destinations.

Slovenes just don't fly (even though people here were bragging about using LJU now that Adria is gone). As far as foreigners are concerned, tourism sector really needs to invest more into the infrastructure.

Maybe now would be a good time for Mr. Skobir to get along with Ryanair..

My guess is they expect the Slovenian EU presidency to have a positive impact. During Slovenia's last EU presidency there was a real boom in numbers which they didn't manage to surpass until recently.

Maybe what works in Skopje doesn't work in Ljubljana. The circumstances and the players are rather different.

+1 last anon

I think it will be around 25%.

Foreign airlines?

Days after Adria collapsed tour operator Nomago organized charters operated by foreign airlines. This will probably happen next summer too.

Weather the storm LJU and don't bite the bullet about new national airline.

First departure this morning at 9.40, first arrival at 8.40 :/

They would probably also be forced into giving some incentives to the new airlines.

If the EU presidency is seen as the main savior, then it is a short sided move.

Focus on LCC. The government officials talking about setting up new Slovenian airline are the same who burried Adria. I would not trust them with tax payers money. They should not be in the governmwnt anymore after the fiasco with crooks 4k. They did not react and they should not play that game any longer.

You are speaking like that because you don't have a national airline any more. Benefits of having a national are great. It's another thing if Slovenes are incapable of making their own work.

+1

Yikes. Not looking too good.

that is a price of destroying its own national carrier

Such a shame after really good figures . It will all be wiped out.

There are still a number of airlines Ljubljana could try to attract like KLM, Iberia, SAS, Alitalia....

For Fraport it's better to fly us (Slovenians) over Frankfurt. Even flying to Rome, you have to fly over some hub.

LJU airport fees are quite high and the market is relatively small and in close proximity to more affordable airports. So it is not surprising why a lot of LCCs are avoiding LJU.

"It's another thing if Slovenes are incapable of making their own work."

Replace "incapable" with "unwilling to drain millions of taxpayers money per year, which would go to something more useful, such as education or healthcare".

LJU will bounce back.

Apparently, Easyjet came to Ljubljane as soon as Adria collapsed, because they wanted to open a base in Ljubljana, but Fraport brilliant decision makers gave them some sort of an ultimat, that they could open it but under certain condition...they can fly only rutes from Ljubljana, which Fraport requires...stupid as sh****...

Perhaps not daily, but I believe a few times a week, LCCs can fly a full A320/B737 - Transavia does, Easyjet to Berlin does, WizzAir to London did. I think there are a couple more destinations that could work 2-3 times a week.

But... time will tell.

Some people still don't understand normal (profitable, successful) airlines don't have aircraft just lying around. Adria went bankrupt in last week of September. Did you expect airlines to start loads of new routes the next day?

LJU got LH, SN and LX within a month, which is a great success.

The way Slovenia is going, there will eventually be a sizeable gasto community as well, so LCCs could work eventually.

Your statement Anonymous 13 November 2019 at 09:26 is shortsighted.

Circumstances in business change constantly, airplanes become available or are being leased, lease and fuel prices change, etc.

There's plenty of charter airlines in Europe. Will probably costs agencies (and travellers) a bit more, but I guess it's better than being delayed for 10+ hours like it was norm with Adria this summer.

Would not agree witht you anon. 10.09. You mean drain millions of Euros to transport Kosovars or Albanians via a HUB to Western Europe so they do not spend too much? What a courtsey of those airlines, I mean their taxpayers.

Yes, we can look at successful airlines such as Air Bosnia or Adria in the past, who started selling tickets 2 weeks before commencment of the route and then everybody was surprised when the LF was low.

Very unlikely LJU will see more scheduled routes for SUTT 2020.

Probably only a few. But for the airport it was great having 4 passengers counted by a pax flying VIE-LJU-PRN. Probably those passengers didn´t even know where they were transferring, the price mattered. Those pax numers are now utopia for LJU Airport until they find someone that produces them 4 pax from transfering

@10.25 (1)

wow if that's true, what a missed opportunity for LJU.

If Latvia or Iceland can then Slovenia could as well, so it's not about investing in healthcare but rather about not being able to run an airline.

So why exactly Wizz air left?

Even for us (Slovenians) is better if we are able to fly over Frankfurt and other major European hubs. For small airport like LJU or any other ex-yu airport you can't expect hundreds of point to point routes, so the important thing is that you have good and reasonably priced conections to major hubs. That means you can travel almost anywhere in the world with one stop which is perfectly fine. And don't worry, there will be some new airlines and new hubs.

@11:12 - I have no idea, perhaps they can charge more at some other places. I flew with them regularly on LON-LJU, and it was always packed.

Come on guys, get real. You are talking like LJU is going to close it's door next month. -40% is figure for october when the airport was hit the most after Adria's bankruptcy. November will only be -25% and that is just 2 months after 50% pax share airline went under. Throughout the next year things will slowly get back to positive numbers.
Let's check the facts:
- New LH group airlines have done a great job introducing so many flights in less than a month. They have already announced some schedule and equipment changes in near future as their flights are doing very well at the moment
- Other airlines flying to LJU have increased their capacity, some significantly
- There are new announcemets coming up in the next months, be sure aboute that
- Ticket prices have gone down significantly which makes LJU very competitive in the wider region. It's the first time you are able to fly to USA for 300-400€ and around Europe for 100-200€ on legacy airlines.
- Major investments around the airport that have been going on for the last few years and also Fraport itself is going through a strong infrastructure investment cycle at the moment. And believe me that germans always think twice before they spend a single euro, so they must know what they are doing.
All things considered I have to dissapoint all the moaners, but LJU will be just fine.

@10:59

Both Latvia and especially Iceland have geographical position which makes them uncomparable to Slovenia.

+1000

The fact is that 2/3 of potential passenger living pretty near GRZ, ZAG, VIE (eastern part) or TRS, TSF, VCE (western part). The distance are often shorter and airports are reachable faster and more reliable. The term reliable is in connection with the Slovenian highway network with its daily incidents/accidents, which make passengers’ on-time arrivals to LJU very risky. Therefore, LJU depends mostly on the central Slovenian region and passengers which number is somehow limited and not changing significantly. Consequently, improvements in pax numbers are hardly to expect in the near future. The stupid idea about new national carrier should also consider this fact. If anyone thinks about new carrier, the most appropriate name will be Ljubljana Air which should be financially covered by Ljubljana or those who dream about and not from the taxpayers money. Most of mentioned 2/3 of Slovenians can easily deal with nonexistence of national carrier.

Croatia Airlines did some of the charters out of LJU afer Adria´s collapse.

We have to take into account as well that Lufthansa AG is the owner (3rd biggest one after the State of Hesse and City of Frankfurt) with  8,44% share of Fraport AG - consequently Fraport Slovenia/LJLJ as well. And as mentioned in earlier post LJU Fraport is in a strong investment phase. Why would be so if there would not be a strong strategy behind. They both know the aviation business. Not afraid for LJU, more for neighbouring airports - as LJU is going to bounce back. The strongest customer (JP) at airport has gone - now are all more or less equal, except LH Group who is soon going to get the prime position. I think that Fraport & LH have now free way to play the game at LJU.

Sure the strongest catchment area for LJU is central Slovenia and as centralised as Slovenia is it's not insignificant. But let's also look around - a lot of Kärnten region passengers have been flying from LJU as KLU really doesn't have much choice and those will continue do to that in the future for sure. Also significant amount of pax in LJU from Italian FVG region as TRS also has limited offer and Treviso airport catering for specific market. That leaves you only with VCE, and even for someone from Trieste LJU is closer than VCE. People from NE part of Slovenia tend to use both LJU and GRZ, depends on offer, but VIE again isn't so close. And finally LJU draws quite a lot of pax from Croatia on the LCC flights.
So, the whole catchement area is quite big actually with a choice of LJU,TRS,GRZ,KLU,ZAG,TSF, VCE,VIE. I think in general pax from the whole area fluctuate a lot beetween these airports and if LJU can offer well priced flights it can benefit significantly. And LJU is getting some good options indeed.

Well said +100

True, and they won't let it go.

Latvia's position is pretty bad, Slovenia is in a much better position, a thousand times better.

Yes, I expect them because the writing was on the wall for a while before it happened.

Running an airport is more about numbers. What did LJU get with JP's super short connection times in the last period? Other than numbers and a small bit of money, nothing, because pax didn't have time to spend money at the airport.

They probably didn't have enough yield. 100% LF does not mean high profits, or any profit for that matter.

Respect +10000

So by your logic, Lufthansa should have 2 or 3 aircraft parked from the beginning or summer schedule just quietly sitting there, because Adria may or may not go bankrupt sometime in the future?

That would be a great way of making money in this business, yes.

Well, Adria's pilots threatened to go on strike a week before the company went bust, so... You never know.

Finally someone here who knows what they are talking about.

Those who claim ZAG as a LJU alternative: I would like to see you queing with your cars at the border for more than two hours in summer.

So anon 12:13 claims that the supply dropped by 50% and prices dropped at the same time?

Keep up the good work boy :)

There are no Qs at border for hours, as there are many entries in to Croatia from Slovenia. Bregana is packing in summer months that is true, but this is mostly tourist traffic, local border posts barely have any tourist traffic. I cross at Dobova/Senkovec and never see any issues with waiting. Also Schengen will extend on Croatia next year from July, as Croatia enters Schengen Zone next year.

There are many detours to easily avoid queues, well known among potential travelers. Don't worry.

Anonymous 13 November 2019 at 15:35

"Also Schengen will extend on Croatia next year from July, as Croatia enters Schengen Zone next year."

... christal ball told you this ???

Fist of all, LJU have to improve accessibility by public transport and keep prices at reasonable levels. Something on this plan is already done when Adria finally disappeared from the market. But there is much more to do. Talking about VIE, it isn't so far from NE since they offer many very good prices including transportation costs. There are good train connections to the VIE from the NE.

Anon at 09:05, you are dead right. Ljubljana will never recover from the demise of AA. Never. Well, maybe if Fraport will fire the managment, who is just saying how much they try to get new lines to LJU. Knowing majority of them, I still stand behind that they are poor managers, but regardless of that, LJU will sink on the bottom, because such regional airport withouth national airline is doomed to remain small insignificant airport or become hub for LCC. Neither is good. But capitalism and its mechanisms of demand will do the magic trick, they said, and now here are the results. I think Fraport will not be owner for a long time...they will sell it to the Chinese, who have the money to buy things they don't need in order to get what they realy want.

please take int the account the news of big trouble in Austrian. My source in the airline says, that 100 pilot positions are to be axed very soon and the DHC8 will be phased out as Lufthansa hates it. So was parts of southern Austria will be left with poor connections to anywhere.

Anon 15:24: Feel free to check my claims yourself. Information about supply dropped is public and you can find prices on any air fare finder. Report back please.

Slovenians have different opinion when it comes to Croatia and Schengen.

Living in southeastern Slovenia, I was flying out of ZAG for a very long time, since prices for the same destination were about 20-30% cheaper than LJU. I as well am checking prices from LJU since LH came and prices for European, North American and Asian destinations are now practically the same. Since LJU is about 50 minutes away from my home and Zagreb is about 1h 10 minutes away (not counting in potential delays at the border), I will choose LJU over ZAG if ticket prices are the same. As will a lot of Slovenes. If this remains, ZAG will be hit significantly (based on my observation, there are a lot of Slovenes traveling out of ZAG) and LJU will definitely bounce back. The thing that could happen iz our government establishing new airline, LH backing off and prices go up. Then it's back to ZAG again, I guess. But as things look now, LJU has competitive prices. For most Slovenes, ZAG is only an alternative if tickets are much cheaper.

And apparently Germans, French and Dutch have it as well.

I don't know how near to LJU you live, but for example for Maribor to ZAG is highway to the airport doors. Travel time 1h25min, even if you take local border crossing. In opposite, you can to take highway ride only to Domžale, afterward over local and speed traps fully local roads. If you arrive in 50 mins, you must be the hell of a driver. Driving normally, you can't reach LJU below 1h15min. Of course if nothing happen in Slovenian terribly dangerous highways. I have few problematic ant time consuming situation on this highway driving to LJU. Thx for such lottery. Some EUR more are worth to arrive alive to ZAG or GRZ.

Aeroflot will start double daily next summer to Moscow.

The hell did you just wrote?

That's true, Zagreb is closer to Maribor than Ljubljana, or rather Kranj where the airport is. There were many Slovenes traveling from ZAG even before this, especially those from eastern and northeastern Slovenia. Plus you have LCCs in Graz.
Besides, LJU will bounce back for sure, but regardless, I think that mostly affects those living in Ljubljana's metro area. Otherwise Slovenes in other parts of the country need to travel to an airport anyway, doesn't matter if it's to Ljubljana or Venice, Zagreb or Graz. The only factors are the price and availability of the route.

lol...the LJU is centre of the universe guys again at work. You're funny really. But in fact LJU was insignificant in the grand scheme of things from the day it opened in 1963.

And the fixation of passenger numbers is pointless if you have 3/4 of JP passengers transfers. They mean basically nothing to the local economy, as someone already said, with 25min transfer, they didn't even drink a cup of coffee at the airport. So it it actually better to have more O&D pax at LJU, lured by lower ticket prices, as the airport makes more money with them (handling fees, parking, ancillary spending) than with transfers.

like I've said in the comment somewhere above, I fail to see the fixation of some commentators on airport numbers solely. Majority of JP's passengers were transfers - JP's unofficial language was shqiptar. So what's the point of those transfer passengers. They do squat to the local economy. Like the previous commentator said: they don't have the time to even drink a cup of coffee at the airport with the short transfer times. Their handling fee is much lower and they don't pay for parking and similar fees. They count as 2 passenger (one inbound and one outbound) but the benefits of them money wise are next to nothing.

OK, one would kind of be OK with it if JP would have positive balance sheets - so more passengers more profit, therefore more tax collected. But if you in reality increase the loss with every passenger carried, then it's pointless with the fixation on passenger numbers, as they mean nothing in reality.

Pobrkao si malo cinjenice. Germans, French and Dutch have negative opinions on Albania starting EU negotiations.
Slovenia is the only EU state which has "pomisleki" on Croatia in Schengen (and I don't say that they are 100% wrong).

Subsidizing a national airline is a waste of money. Let the market determine what happens. If there is economic value in having links, they will happen. If Venice and Zagreb provide cheap alternatives, so be it.