Fate of American's Dubrovnik service to be revealed next week


American Airlines is planning to go ahead with its seasonal summer service between Philadelphia and Dubrovnik but a final decision on the route's fate will be announced on April 5. At this point, the carrier has moved the route’s resumption date by several days, from June 1 to June 4 and cut short the flying season by a week to October 18. Furthermore, frequencies will be reduced in October, from the initially planned daily flights to three weekly. The carrier intends on replacing the operating aircraft between the two cities. Initially, the transatlantic service was to run with the 209-seat Boeing 767-300ER jet, however, the coronavirus Covid-19 pandemic has forced the airline to bring forward the type’s retirement from its fleet by May. American is yet to advise which alternative aircraft type it will use on the route, although the B767s have been earmarked for replacement by the Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, which features 239 seats.

American Airlines’ service between Philadelphia and Dubrovnik proved to be extremely successful during its launch year in 2019. The carrier maintained three weekly services from June until late August and increased frequencies to four weekly during its last month of operations in September. It handled 17.782 passengers during its four-month service run last year, with an average cabin load factor of 83%.

MonthPassengers carriedLoad factor (%)
JUN3.67585.8
JUL4.61883.8
AUG4.44483.8
SEP5.04579.8

Data provided by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics of the United States

American Airlines has delayed the resumption of a number of seasonal flights from the United States to Europe so far, however, Dubrovnik remains unaffected for the most part at this point. The carrier has said its Europe-wide cancellations for the coming period are based on guidance from the US government and customer demand. Meanwhile, Dubrovnik Airport, which was to reopen for commercial traffic on March 28, has extended its closure until April 13 as a result of the coronavirus Covid-19 outbreak. Seven staff members at Dubrovnik Airport have tested positive for the virus. Only state and medical flights will be permitted to land. Other commercial airports in the country remain operational at this point.




Comments

  1. Anonymous09:03

    They are optimistic if they think there will be demand for June especially with what's going on in the US these days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:29

      Other airlines like JU seem to thinke the same..

      Delete
    2. Anonymous10:47

      Passenger structure from BEG is completely different than it is from DBV. Don't forget that JU flew full to JFK until the very end.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous10:48

      So now please explain the difference in terms of coronavirus.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous10:50

      Well in terms of coronavirus is very simple. AA in DBV relies exclusively on tourists while JU in BEG relies on local demand, cargo demand as well as a growing list of transfer options from the region and beyond. So JU on BEG-JFK has far more sources of business than AA does in DBV.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous11:14

      Ah I understand- the Virus simply circumvents the events when it comes to JU. People simply travel and enter the US as they like. No effects in the markets JU serves- thanks for that explantation.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous13:59

      Obviously the explanation was not enough for you to understand that market dynamics between JU in JFK and AA in DBV are different starting with the fact JU has feed on both ends, AA doesn't.
      JU is not reliant on tourists but has ethnic travellers to both Serbia and the Balkans.

      You know, not everything is doom and gloom for JU, no matter how much you would want that.

      UA in ATH is more similar to JU in JFK than AA in DBV is.

      Delete
    7. Anonymous14:49

      Well everyone does understand that. The question was however what the difference is in this worldwide Cornoa crisis? If it were like you say, airlines would fly normally today, Wizz would be transporting all diaspora without interruption- only tourists would not fly.

      So what is the difference in terms of coronavirus? Please explain as Anon 10.48 rihtfully asks.

      Delete
    8. Anonymous15:10

      Huh? No one is speaking about AA flying right now, at the height of the corona crisis but rather after it, in June. You are mixing things up. Please stick to the actual discussion. Wizz Air not flying right now is irrelevant. However, they plan on resuming flights from May 1st, long before AA returns to DBV... if they return that is.

      Delete
    9. Anonymous15:12

      I completely agree with the guy who is trying to explain that the structure is completely different. People flying from the US to Dubrovnik are old white tourists and right now they are scared to get out of their house, let alone fly to Europe

      Delete
    10. Anonymous15:45

      I know DBV is attractive because of cruise ships but I still think SPU or ZAG would be more successful because their catchment area is much larger.

      Delete
    11. Anonymous17:12

      And yet again you missed the point. If the crisis goes on into summer (either with the actual epidemic or with restrictions after it), both JU flights to NY and AA flights to Dubrovnik will be affected. Why? Because if there are limitations, those are valid for diaspora, businessmen and tourists. Nobody is saying that the flights in terms of passengers are the same, but in terms of corona they are perfectly equal.

      Delete
    12. Anonymous17:14

      Anon. 15:12 Rich white ?

      Delete
    13. Anonymous17:30

      Old white americans will be scared? You didn't get it. It is not about being scared and not flying, it is about limitations. You are impling that businessmen and diaspora are not scared, while old americans are. Well, scared or not, they just won't be able to fly.

      Delete
    14. Anonymous17:47

      No one said JU won't be exposed to the negative effects (hello, they are grounded right now) but when it comes to viability of their transatlantic operations, JU is in a better position in JFK than AA is in DBV. Reasons for that are up there. If I had to bet money which route will be around in summer, I would put my money on JU. Same way there is more chance of Austrian flights to JFK than there is for AA to be flying to DBV. Just like there are huge chances of AA ditching tourist heavy destinations in Europe and beyond. PHL-DBV is a tourist heavy line and tourism industry is in a downward spiral.

      BEG-JFK might be affected but it won't be destroyed because ethnic travellers will find their way to get home at least once a year which is enough for JU to make this route work.

      Delete
    15. Anonymous20:33

      i ja znam dvoje koji su putovali za Crnu Goru preko Filadelfije i jednu za Bosnu. I pricali su mi da su vecina putnika sa juga exYu.

      Delete
  2. Anonymous09:03

    Hope these will materialize.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous09:06

    Good luck with that

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous09:11

    The peak of Infections will hit the US later than the rest of the world, which will be April/May, and I do not think anybody in the US will be thinking about a vacation in Dubrovnik, or anywhere else for that matter in early June.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous09:14

    This will be a very tough year for Croatian tourism, extremely tough especially since corona has only now started attacking key markets where tourists come from: Germany, UK and Spain and Italy.
    I don't think the market will recover by June though. Maybe August will be ok-ish and only if hotels, restaurants... drop their prices to synch themselves with the new reality.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:29

      Hopefully this virus will be some sort of a great equaliser and force the opportunistically high coastal prices to return into the realm of normalcy once again.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:39

      It's not only that the key markets are being attacked only now. If Croatia manages to end the thing sooner, there will be limitations for tourists and everybody coming to the country. So this season is basically over.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous10:34

      Although Croatia will be hit hard, it will hit other as well. Demand is 0. Germany has travel advisories for the whole world. Every nation is repatriating their citizens right now. Hard to believe that people will be travelling soon.

      Delete
  6. Anonymous09:20

    Well some 3 weeks ago nobody thought whole airline fleets would be grounded around the world and airports closed. So June is quite far away from this perspective. What else should they do except planning as done If DBV gets cancelled or postponed this will happen at short notice but the USA will have quite other problems then than that of DBV flights.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:31

      Only thing is that overnight over 3 million applied for unemployment benefits in the US. Economic impact of corona will be massive, gigantic even I would say.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous10:38

      Well hire and fire.. good we do not have that system in the EU.

      Delete
  7. Anonymous09:21

    not to mention that Croatia is part of Europe and Europ is closed for now for non-EU residents

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:31

      Europe is not closed, Schengen area is.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:40

      Don't think the flights will materialize.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous14:07

      It all depends on what the US economy looks like in a few months from today. Unfortunatel corona has hit the US just about the same time when most people book their summer tour packages. Let's see what becomes of the Congress' relief package and if it helps bring the economy back to life. Unemployment exploding does not help. I expect US carriers to decimate their European network to leisure destinations.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous15:34

      I am not entirely sure about the US, but in Europe people book their summer vacations statistically mostly in the months of January (the most) and February (2nd most). Furthermore, last minute bookings are made between June and August.

      Crisis did not hit Europe and US significantly before March.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous17:17

      Last anonymus, and? Many of them cancelled summer, and more will follow. Do you honestly expect crowded beaches in July? Really?

      Delete
  8. Anonymous09:32

    Those LF figures are crazy!! It seems there is super high demand!
    BRAVO Hrvatska!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:38

      Is it though? July and August are not that high especially since they flew with the 763 which has like 220 seats. LF should be closer to 95% in high season.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:41

      Yes, they are excellent results, especially for the first year of flights, especially for a 10 hour TATL route.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous09:43

      No, they are really bad results obviously American is loosing money so they planed to fly daily this year and through to October. Probably because they wanted to loose money and had no passengers lol.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous09:50

      Anon 09.43 I imagine you were triggered by an opposing argument which is why you went to the extreme is making a nonsensical argument. He said there was super high demand which can't be really the case if they are flying a 220 seat 767 at 83% LF. Loads are ok but they are far from being crazy.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous09:53

      1- Those LF's are not enough for a transatlantic flight to be commercially feasible but I guess the no. of J class on board pays for the low LF.
      2- American Airlines is the most aggressive among the three main carriers in US, we can see that both in their courage to launch DBV last year and in insisting on the increased schedule for this year. That's why American is the weakest of the trio, with $34 billion debt awaiting while United and Delta have $20 billion and $17.5 billion respectively. Its bonds yield over 10%, indicating an increased chance of bankruptcy in forthcoming period.

      Good luck with buying tickets and serving the planes!

      Delete
    6. Anonymous09:55

      @9.43 they have better LF then every ex-yu state airline

      Delete
    7. Anonymous10:14

      This is true. American had better average LF in these three months during first year of flights than Air Serbia in its third to New York
      https://www.exyuaviation.com/2019/06/air-serbia-registers-growth-on-us.html

      Delete
    8. Anonymous10:29

      They were planning on launching Chicago-Dubrovnik in 2021 too.

      Delete
    9. Anonymous10:46

      Selling 220 seats for a transatlantic flight is not like selling 220 LLC seats. So for AA this is quite profitable to have such a high LF.

      Delete
    10. Anonymous10:51

      Fair point. AA is extremely expensive on this route.

      Delete
    11. Anonymous10:56

      They are, aren't they?

      Delete
    12. Anonymous11:16

      yes but it is a niche market they can charge that premium for a direct flight. J is full and look at the prices they cahrge there.

      Delete
    13. Anonymous12:59

      Honestly these AA travelers are more valuable than 20 easyjet flights.

      Delete
    14. Anonymous12:59

      I mean for the local economy.

      Delete
    15. Anonymous13:38

      quiet the opposite. they hope on a cruiseship and thats it

      Delete
    16. Anonymous13:39

      Not true. These tourists don't go on cruise ships.

      Delete
    17. Anonymous14:02

      Erm yes they do, why do you think Volotea is introducing JMK flights from DBV, for many Dubrovnik is just an entry point. Very few Americans will travel all the way to Croatia and just stay in Dubrovnik, they all travel around. What differs is where they start their journey. Dubrovnik is not Barcelona, Rome, Athens, Istanbul... for them to exclusively stay there. Heck they don't even stay in Venice the whole time. Let's not lose focus por favor.

      Delete
    18. Anonymous14:44

      I would say Americans do DBV and surroundings. There are lots of places to explore. As we already mentioned they are kind of tired of the Caribbean and want to explore culture and a different, Balkan experience. DBV is definitely the Gateway of the Western Balkans.

      Delete
    19. Anonymous14:55

      Anon: 14.02. You are right. Just imagine Europeans fly to LA and than take an Aeromexico flight to Cancun. Must all be Cruise passengers. Foreigner cannot organise flight by themselves. Why would an American tourist do DBV-JMK-ATH and VCE.

      Just imagine a European fly to New York and then taking a Jet Blue Flight to FLL and then a Southwest DFW for touristic purposes?

      Delete
    20. Anonymous15:12

      Your comment about LAX or NYC makes no sense because they are not starting points for cruis traffic: MIA, FLL and SEA are.

      As for DBV-JMK, well they are obviously there for wealthier Americans. Who do you think would fly between the two cities with a collective population of 100.000.

      Delete
  9. Anonymous10:04

    Hope things will calm down by then. Interestingly they have cancelled all of their seasonal Italy flights for the enitre summer.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anonymous10:12

    Good results last summer. Unfortunately I don't think these will start in June unless the virus mutates over night in the next month.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:26

      if it goes like this a few more weeks it will endanger the entire summer season

      Delete
    2. And it most certainly will.

      Delete
  11. Anonymous10:12

    I'm quite interested to see what will happen with this route due to an expected economic crisis everywhere. In 2008/09 demand for leisure travel and expensive holidays hit rock bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous11:33

    If the trend continues in the future, 1% of DBV traffic will be only from AA. Amazing results!!!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anonymous13:00

    I wonder if, after all this is over (virus), airports will do more to stimulate airlines to fly. Say DBV reduces charges for AA or something like that.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Anonymous14:33

    This year people will be spending their vacations in their own country. I think this flight will not happen or will be with much reduced frequencies. Coronavirus is starting to spread in Croatia and the hospital in Dubrovnik will be a real mess in the next few weeks. My mother was on oxygen in that hospital and already some of the equipment was not working!! (and let's not talk about the nurses' station where they take breaks and smoke cigarettes...it smells like cigarette smoke in the corridors near the rooms where people are on oxygen! The virus needs to be contained in every country in the world before people feel comfortable traveling. There may be more VFR travel than tourism. 2021 will be much better.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anonymous18:21

    First official case in Wuhan was in December. WUH airport is still closed for passengers and won't reopen before April 8 at the earliest. When it opens it won't be filled right away with tourists from all over the world looking to have fun vacation or a city break. You do the math and apply it other airports.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:37

      lol yeah because Wuhan was such a massive tourist destination. Maybe for bat soup fans but other than that...

      Delete
    2. Anonymous13:32

      Wuhan is a huge city with an extremely busy airport. Your stereotypical comment about China shows
      your ignorance. You need to travel outside of exyu.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous22:08

      "The airport served 20,772,000 passengers in 2016" - just for the record :)

      Delete
  16. Anonymous20:54

    I doubt the start in June given the Corona pandemics will not only keep airports closed but also a global recession will follow and many people will thinks twice beofore spending an expensive vacation abroad. The tourism in Croatia (as everywhere) will be halved this year (optimistic scenario).

    ReplyDelete
  17. Anonymous05:26

    BRAVO HRVATSKA

    ReplyDelete
  18. After crisis will be less flights to the west and more to china. JU can get it.

    ReplyDelete

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