Zagreb awaits Ryanair effect, reaches 33% of pre-Covid traffic


Zagreb Airport handled 191.092 passengers this September, representing a decrease of 45.4% on the same month in the pre-pandemic 2019. Over the thirty-day period, low cost carrier Ryanair stationed its second aircraft in the city and launched nine new routes, while Flydubai restored operations from its hub. Although performance expectations were higher due to Ryanair’s expanded presence in the Croatian capital, Zagreb Airport did reduce the difference in passenger numbers between the months of August and September. In 2019 it stood at 25.888 travellers, while this year the difference was just 3.901. During September, Croatia Airlines accounted for the most flights to and from Zagreb, with a market share of 52%, followed by Ryanair with 14.2%, KLM with 4.6% and Eurowings with 4.3%. The most capacity was offered between Zagreb and Frankfurt, followed by Amsterdam, Split and Dubrovnik.

Airline market share at Zagreb Airport based on frequency in September


During the first three quarters of the year, Zagreb Airport welcomed 877.780 travellers through its doors. It is now at 33.4% of its pre-pandemic traffic. Aircraft movements stood at 20.076, down 41.5% on 2019. In the last quarter of this year, the airport is set to see the launch of ten new routes. Nine of them will be introduced by Ryanair, which will base its third aircraft in the city in December, while Eurowings will commence its new service from Prague in mid-December, “This year, Zagreb will be connected with 42 international destinations and six domestic ones. This is the largest number of destinations we have had in Zagreb history”, the airport said.

During the first half of the year, Frankfurt was Zagreb’s busiest route, operated by both Croatia Airlines and Lufthansa. It was followed by Amsterdam, run by the Croatian national carrier and KLM. Domestic destinations of Dubrovnik and Split ranked third and fourth, while Turkish Airlines’ Istanbul flights topped of the five busiest routes. Out of the five, Turkish Airlines had the highest average cabin load factor over the six-month period with the average cabin occupancy amounting to 68%, a high number during the pandemic. It was followed by Amsterdam, with a load factor of 58.3% and Frankfurt with a 52.8% cabin occupancy rate. Domestic flights to Dubrovnik and Split hovered at around 40%. It should be noted that the first quarter of the year was heavily impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, with many of Zagreb’s key markets having entry restrictions and requirements in place, as well as lockdowns and curfews.

Top five busiest Zagreb Airport routes, January - June




Comments

  1. Anonymous08:03

    I was expecting for better results considering the amount of new routes launched.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous08:04

    How many passengers could Zagreb have this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous08:08

      My guess 1.2-1.3 million.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous18:59

      They should celebrate if pass over 1 milion!

      Delete
  3. Anonymous08:05

    Funny how LH is slowly giving their flights to OU. They are reducing FRA-ZAG from 14 to 11 while OU increased to almost all Airbus. LH did not continue their MUC-ZAG but OU increased flights. Now Austrian Airlines is reducing ZAG to just 4 weekly but OU is increasing it to 14.
    Swiss left ZAG long time ago and this market is now served by OU.

    This is starting to remind me more and more of JP.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous08:07

      Interesting. I think LH won't come back on the MUC-ZAG route.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous08:09

      FR dumped too many seats too soon. They increased capacity before demand grew so someone had to reduce flights.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous08:13

      Anon @8:05, how does OU increasing flights remind you of JP?

      Delete
    4. Anonymous08:20

      Remember in LJU how Star Alliance was literally not present and all passengers were flown by JP for less money? Now it looks like they are doing the same in ZAG. Why would LH give flights to OU if they were profitable?

      Delete
    5. Anonymous08:23

      Maybe code sharing is better for LH group. That way they can better utilize aircraft.
      Not sure, just a thought.

      Delete
    6. Vlad08:25

      It's cheaper for LH to have OU deliver connecting traffic to their doorstep than flying their own metal and crew to ZAG. It's that simple.

      Delete
    7. Anonymous08:27

      How come it doesn't work that way for other cities LH flies to in the region?

      Delete
    8. Anonymous08:34

      Maybe because OU is the only slave left, JP died and they tried with YM 2.0 but it didn't go as planned.

      Delete
    9. Anonymous08:42

      Still doesn't explain why LH flies to other cities in our and wider region.

      Delete
    10. Anonymous09:03

      Love LH in our region.

      Delete
    11. Anonymous09:15

      Love any airline in our region.

      Delete
    12. Vlad17:41

      @Anon 8:27

      I don't really understand the question. LH flies where it has to in order to pick up connecting traffic. Where they can, they outsource much of the flying to a regional LH Group or Star Alliance member. JP did it from LJU before it died, OU is doing it from ZAG, Air Dolomiti is doing it in Italy. OU is of course their best deal because the losses are picked up by the Croatian state.

      Delete
    13. Anonymous19:02

      Considering load rate of 50% they should all half number of flights

      Delete
  4. Anonymous08:06

    I expect much better numbers in the next few months.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous08:06

    Another early posting.
    I love it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous08:08

      haha yes, nice surprise

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:14

      Here comes the 9:00 rush. Hahahaah

      Delete
  6. Anonymous08:08

    Is Skopje still ahead of Zagreb in terms of passenger numbers this year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous08:09

      Yup I think it iwll be ahead this year

      Delete
    2. Anonymous08:45

      How times have changed. Unthinkble just a few years ago.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous09:12

      True dat.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous10:23

      Don't forget that SKP relies on the Albanians and shares traffic with PRN.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous11:09

      So?

      Delete
  7. Anonymous08:10

    Looks as if the FR flights didn't make any affect last month. My guess is load factor was relatively low which is understandable considering the situation. Things should improve next year when I expect we will see the real impact of FR in Zagreb.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anonymous08:11

    I'm surprised at how popular ZAG-AMS-ZAG is. Second busiest route.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous08:15

      Lots of transfers.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous08:46

      To where? US/Canada or other European destinations?

      Delete
    3. Anonymous09:05

      N. America.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous11:09

      Interesting. Thanks

      Delete
  9. Anonymous08:15

    Disappointing

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:16

      It's not going to be a great year for any airport in 2021. They are still handling fraction of the traffic from two years ago

      Delete
  10. Anonymous08:26

    Anyone know how the FR routes are performing? Who is doing best?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous11:10

      I think Rome is doing well from what I've read.

      Delete
  11. Anonymous08:32

    It will take a few months before we see Ryanair's impact

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous08:41

      But they started flights in June and have had 1 plane already based since the peak summer months.

      Delete
  12. Anonymous08:41

    2022 will be boom year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That was said for 2021.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous14:51

      We didn't know Ryanair would open a base in 2020. It is realistic to expect numbers will surge. Covid will probably be calming down and Ryanair will base anther two planes in Zagreb next year.

      Delete
    3. Nevertheless. The pandemic is still going strong and with all the rules and testings and uncertainty, many people won't be flying. I'm one of them and I used to travel several times a year.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous08:51

      Plus don't forget that Croatia is in top 4 EU states by people refusing the vaccine. That won't help with covid.

      Delete
  13. Anonymous08:47

    Well done to TK on the high load factor.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous08:50

      What equipment do they mostly use.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:20

      Mostly planes.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous09:23

      Hilarious...

      Delete
    4. Anonymous13:03

      A320. they've started sending A321s over the summer.

      Delete
  14. Anonymous08:49

    It will take some time for people to get accustomed to Ryanair and for Zagreb resident's habits to change in regard to travel.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:11

      What you think they need an adjustment period? When people decide to fly they will search out the best prices, or best schedule.
      People can very quickly change their habits when something cheaper comes along.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:11

      Let's hope so

      Delete
    3. Anonymous10:16

      It is not a norm for majority of Croats to even consider having a holiday abroad or weekend break in other European cities, let alone flying on a plane.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous10:29

      And that is the problem because going the other way someone will only come to Zagreb once or twice before checking out another city break destination.

      Delete
  15. Anonymous09:10

    Since ZAG is now having bigger and bigger LCC presence, they should try and attract Wizz and easyjet.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:18

      not sure Ryanair would be happy with that.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:23

      ZAG and W6 were in talks but doesn't seem an agreement has been reached

      Delete
    3. Anonymous09:34

      I would be happy with easyjet too thoguh.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous13:56

      With FR expanding so much so quickly in ZAG, there is little chance we will see another LCC come anytime soon. Also if they did it would put the final nail in OU's coffin.

      Delete
    5. No more LCC's will come as the "sale" that Zagreb Airport did already expired in June so the airport costs are back to normal now

      Delete
  16. Anonymous09:14

    I hope ZAG will have a swift recovery

    ReplyDelete
  17. Anonymous09:18

    I think there are a few more European airlines that could start Zagreb. SAS, TAROM, Air Baltic and Finnair.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:21

      AirBaltuc better hurry up and start Riga otherwise FR will launch it next summer.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:22

      Luxair would be a good addition too.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous09:22

      *airbaltic

      Delete
    4. Anonymous09:26

      I think Luxair will start Ljubljana instead of Zagreb. They already said they were looking at Ljubljana.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous10:30

      LJU is a bigger market from LUX than ZAG. So they will start LJU. Or maybe both.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous11:05

      No chance for both I think. We will see

      Delete
    7. Anonymous11:16

      SAS stopped flying to Zagreb in 90s, would love to see them return

      Delete
    8. Anonymous14:45

      Did that SAS offshoot Snowflake fly to Zagreb in the 2000s?

      Delete
    9. Anonymous14:50

      No, they flew to BEG and SJJ and were extremely expensive.

      Delete
  18. Anonymous09:31

    When will 2019 result be reached?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:35

      Next year or 2023

      Delete
  19. Anonymous10:32

    I'm sure that Croatia Airlines is also awaiting the Ryanair effect.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous13:54

      I think they are already feeling it.

      Delete
  20. Anonymous10:52

    With the way covid is spiralling in a country where not that many people can be bothered to get vaccinated, it is going to be a long slow winter.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Anonymous11:11

    Really interested in knowing how FR's routes like Sofia and Podgorica are doing from Zagreb.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous12:43

      Me too. Anyone know?

      Delete
    2. Anonymous14:20

      When I flew ZAG-TGD-ZAG last month both ways were about 60-70% load. Most of Pax were Montenegrians.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous14:32

      That's not bad at all actually

      Delete
  22. Anonymous11:15

    Wish them good luck

    ReplyDelete
  23. Anonymous11:16

    Why doesn't Iberia start year-round flights? There must be enough demand to sustain full year operations.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous11:52

      Its pandemic so demand is low. They flew year round 2 years ago.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous12:44

      So the seasonal flights are just temporary? Good

      Delete
    3. Anonymous13:53

      When demand is restored, so will the flights.

      Delete
  24. Anonymous13:06

    Too early to judge FR's impact. We will see in a few months.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous13:23

      This reminds me on OU reaction when Adria went belly up.

      Delete
  25. Anonymous13:42

    Seems like FR just took passengers from others.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Anonymous13:52

    A good sign is that the difference between August and September has decreased by a lot. It means that FR certainly brought quite a few pax to Zagreb.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Anonymous13:53

    I'm shocked that the Bravo Hrvatska guy has not written today.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Anonymous15:05

    Not so bad I would say.
    The neighbour who has currently the Presidency of the Council of the EU would be jumping with satisfaction with double monthly numbers ... in a year!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous17:42

      Croatia is bigger country with bigger population. It's logical to have more passengers.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous08:53

      Plus continental Croatia has just one real airport so everyone has to fly from there.

      Delete
  29. Anonymous17:43

    A bit disappointed with the September numbers but hoping October will perform much better.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Anonymous17:44

    ZAG could reach around 40% of 2019 traffic at the end of this year I think.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous15:29

      I think they're going to stay at 35% i dont see it going higher than that. But next year if covid calms down we could even see a surpass of the 2019 numbers

      Delete
  31. As everyone knows, travel plans are usually made a few months in advance, so “RYR effect” will not be visible before somewhere next year. In addition to that, covid “passports” are precluding people who haven’t gotten the jab from traveling, so you need to count them as well. All in all, RYR can handle this without even blinking. Seems like they’re here for the long run, at least long enough to help finish CTN.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Anonymous18:30

    So which airport will be busiest in Croatia this year? Zagreb or Split?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous18:32

      Split without doubt.

      Delete
  33. Anonymous18:40

    Big surprise Frankfirt being the busiest route :D what are the current frequencies for LH and OU on this route?

    ReplyDelete
  34. Anonymous18:41

    Why such low load factors from Zagreb to Dubrovnik and Split? Do they mostly use Airbuses on these flights.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Anonymous20:17

    I'm not sure what FR expects from ZAG, locals do not travel much and when they do they love a bus. There are only so many people who will come for a city break in ZAG.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Despite their claims of coexistence, they are attacking OU. That is what they're expecting. Notice that the OU still has a wapping 52% share at the Zagreb airport. That is a huge pie, especially once the numbers go back up in the next couple of (hopefully) post-covid years.
      FR wants and will almost certainly get a big piece of that pie.
      Additionally, Ryanair's strategy is also creating demand, they explicitly state that. This happens once people realize they can fly for a similar or cheaper price than what they'd pay for a bus ticket or traveling by car.
      I fully expect for OU's share to drop next year to below 50%, probably way below and if next year ZAG goes up from 1/3 to 2/3 of 2019. pax number, you can see how beneficial that'll be for FR.

      Delete
    2. Especially to Sweden and Netherlands.

      Gotta love these know-it-alls.

      Delete

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