Australia reopening to provide boost for EX-YU markets


Australia’s reopening for international travel over the next three weeks is expected to provide a notable uplift in passengers for select markets across the former Yugoslavia, as the region saw significant traffic flow to and from the continent prior to the coronavirus pandemic. Most Australian citizens and residents can now travel abroad. As of tomorrow, entry into most Australian states will be permitted to anyone with a valid visa, while from March 3, the state of Western Australia, which boasts a large Croatian, Macedonian and Serbian ethnic population, will finally permit its citizens and residents to leave the state’s boarders after two years. Australia expects huge pent-up demand to generate close to record travel during the upcoming Southern Hemisphere winter.

Gulf carriers accounted for over 70% of travel between Australia and the former Yugoslav markets prior to Covid-19. Their performance in the former Yugoslavia has been hit hard by the continent adopting one of the strictest boarder policies in the world. These measures forced the suspension of Emirates’ service to Zagreb, Etihad Airways’ to Belgrade and Qatar Airways’ operations to Skopje and Sarajevo. The Qatari carrier has also slashed its frequencies to the Croatian capital from fourteen weekly to three weekly, while its operations to Belgrade have now mostly recovered, alternating between five and seven weekly rotations compared to daily flights two years ago.

Croatia has seen the largest number of passengers travelling to and from Australia compared to the remaining markets in the former Yugoslavia. In addition to having a sizable diaspora in Australia, Croatia has seen strong passenger growth from the continent due to tourism, with the country becoming increasingly popular Down Under. Based on OAG data, in 2019, the last full year Australian nationals and residents were permitted to head overseas, 62.888 travelled indirectly between the two countries, meaning they either started or ended their journey in Australia or Croatia on a single itinerary. Based on that data, passengers travelled the most from Sydney and Melbourne to Zagreb. Croatia also saw a notable number of Australian passengers arriving in Split and Dubrovnik. Qatar Airways was the main carrier of choice between the two markets, with over 40% of all travellers opting to fly the Qatari carrier via Doha. In 2020, the airline was also planning to introduce seasonal operations to Dubrovnik to cater for the Asian and Australian markets. However, those plans did not materialise due to the pandemic. Qatar Airways was followed by Emirates as the preferred airline for transfers between Croatia and Australia, while combinations with Star Alliance member carriers, mainly Croatia Airlines and Singapore Airlines, were also popular. Another regional carrier, Air Serbia, profited from its codeshare cooperation with Etihad, with just over 1.400 passengers flying in combination between the two to reach either Croatia or Australia, making it the sixth busiest airline between the two markets. Emirates has said it hopes to restart its flights to Zagreb.

Busiest Australia - Croatia routes in 2019


Busiest airlines for indirect traffic between Australia and Croatia in 2019


Serbia was the second largest EX-YU market from Australia with Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane providing the biggest number of passengers. Qatar Airways was again the carrier of choice, handling 41% of the Serbia – Australia market. It was followed by Etihad Airways with 32%, and the Emirates - Flydubai combination, which accounted for 11% of passengers. Although Qatar Airways has managed to quickly rebuild its frequencies to Belgrade thanks to a notable increase in travellers from India, it plans to maintain between five and seven weekly flights to the Serbian capital this summer, although this could be revised as the Australian market fully reopens. Etihad Airways, which catered for a significant portion of passengers between the two countries, has said it is evaluating the possibility of resuming flights between Abu Dhabi and Belgrade.

Busiest Australia - Serbia routes in 2019


Busiest airlines for indirect traffic between Australia and Serbia in 2019


Macedonia was closely behind Serbia in terms of passenger flow to and from Australia prior to the pandemic. Gulf carriers relied on transfer traffic from Down Under to feed the bulk of their flights to Skopje. A whopping 62% of passengers flew with Qatar Airways between the two markets, followed by Turkish Airlines and its codeshare partners, which held an 11% share of the market, and the Emirates - Flydubai combination with a 10% passenger share. Both Qatar Airways and Flydubai suspended their services to the Macedonian capital in March 2020 and are yet to restore flights. The Dubai-based carrier has tentatively scheduled its return to Skopje for late October, however, Australia’s reopening could see the two Gulf airlines revise their plans for the Macedonian market.

Busiest Australia - Macedonia routes in 2019


Busiest airlines for indirect traffic between Australia and Macedonia in 2019




Comments

  1. Anonymous09:21

    Interesting. Well done to QR for capturing such a big share of the market

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous09:22

    Hope this means we will see EY back in Belgrade. Wonder where those Aussie pax will migrate to.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:24

      Qatar Airways

      Delete
    2. Anonymous10:55

      I think most will switch to FZ which plans double daily flights in BEG. With those they will be much more competitive than anyone else.

      Delete
    3. Wife took QR, her family took EY.
      By what I'm told QR sounds better.

      But as the previous comment states FZ will be a force to be reckoned with from now on.

      Delete
  3. Anonymous09:23

    Seems like QR'S SKP route pretty much depended on Australian transfers.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous09:24

    I would love to see Qatar back in SKP so we will not need to drive to either BEG or SOF to enjoy the best airline around the globe...

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous09:38

    Wow really interesting data. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  6. Anonymous09:40

    Got to say I expected much more from EK-FZ when it comes to transfers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:48

      I live in Sydney and I can tell you no one ever liked the experience of transferring between Emirates and Flydubai at Dubai Airport.

      A couple of years ago almost everyone used to go with Etihad (to Serbia). Then their service went downhill big time. I flew with them at a point when we were offered a sandwich on a 16 hour flight from Sydney to Abu Dhabi and everyone was in jackets because their AC was not working on the plane and it was 15C in the cabin the entire trip.

      So everyone started travelling with Qatar instead which offers great service and prices. I'm not surprised by their success. They also fly from many Australian cities. Pre covid they even flew to Canberra.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous10:01

      Interesting. Thanks for the explanation. I could see how transferring from full fare to hybrid airline would not be so popular.

      Delete
    3. Fully agree with 09.40 and 09.48. Tried combination FZ/EK from ZAG, just once and never again. Next time went to VCE for entire EK trip. Not because of transfer but because FZ and EK onboard experience is totally incomparable and frankly speaking I don't understand how that combination functions at all, generally

      Delete
  7. Anonymous09:49

    QR will only keep growing their Australian share. They were the only foreign airline that never stopped flying to Australia during Covid and they even introduced new routes like Brisbane.

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  8. Anonymous09:51

    We booked tickets from Perth In April! Can't wait to visit our family and friends. We haven't been able to travel at all for 2 years, not even to the east coast as even domestic travel was banned in WA!

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    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:56

      Happy for you. Which airline and where are you heading if it is not a secrete?

      Delete
    2. Anonymous10:21

      Qatar Airways to Belgrade. We decided to risk it and booked before the premier announced the reopening of Western Australia two days ago. Happy to finally get out of here for a bit and be reunited with family.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous10:27

      Nice, enjoy :)

      Delete
  9. Anonymous09:54

    If Etihad wants to attract passengers, they literally have to do something immediately. I'm not so optimistic that they'll restore BEG very soon.
    Still can't believe that they discontinued flights. There are also other markets than Australia, e.g. India, many passengers would fly to BEG via AUH.
    Etihad has really made a lot of bad decisions, caused troubles for JU with leasing prices, additional costs etc.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:59

      Problem is that Etihad's main transfer passengers on BEG route were from China and Australia and both of those had/ have very strict entry rules. EY has very few professionals and most of their decision making is done by software and computers which can't see the bigger picture or potential market trends. They just crunch numbers based on past travel flows. And I speak from first hand experience.

      Delete
  10. Anonymous09:55

    Not surprised about Croatia being the biggest market in ex-Yu for Australia. It has become really popular here in recent years. Lots of Australians go there for holiday now. Same as Greece which has become hugely popular. In the past, when going to Europe Australians almost exclusively went to the UK and maybe combined it with a trip to France. Thankfully this is changing.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anonymous10:19

    That is great demand for Croatia. Wonder if we could eventually see someone like Jet Star star flights.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous12:29

      *start

      Delete
    2. Anonymous12:36

      If they ever do venture into Europe, I think there might be some more higher priority markets for them.

      Delete
  12. Anonymous10:23

    Unfortunately don't think we will see EK in Zagreb this summer but you never know. 2023 is more realistic.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anonymous10:27

    We can conclude that majority of Macedonian diaspora is in Melbourne, while Croatian and Serbia in Sydney :D

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:31

      Yep correct. Many Macedonians in state of Victoria.

      Delete
  14. Anonymous10:28

    Did I understand that Australia will now allow you to enter for tourism purposes? What are the entry requirements?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:31

      Yes from tomorrow you can enter Australia for tourism (except Western Australia i.e. Perth, you can go there from 2nd March). Requirement is that you are fully vaccinated and have a PCR test up to 72 hours before departure.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous10:36

      Good. What vaccines do they recognize?

      Delete
    3. Anonymous10:40

      All vaccines approved by World Health Organisation are accepted.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous10:43

      Great so Chinese vaccine included, like in the US?

      Delete
    5. Anonymous10:51

      Yes, that's right

      Delete
  15. Anonymous10:52

    Enjoyed this article. I would really love to see a similar one for US and Canada markets. Really interested to see what are the main trends, which airlines are being used etc.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Anonymous10:53

    "Another regional carrier, Air Serbia, profited from its codeshare cooperation with Etihad, with just over 1.400 passengers flying in combination between the two to reach either Croatia or Australia, making it the sixth busiest airline between the two markets. Emirates has said it hopes to restart its flights to Zagreb."

    But we were told here by some that no one from Croatia transfers with Air Serbia.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:56

      This also shows that Etihad pulling out of BEG will have an impact on Air Serbia's passenger performance. They managed to feed them quite a lot of passengers to many markets.

      Delete
  17. Anonymous11:07

    I'd love to see QR at LJU.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous12:51

      If they would get A321Neos we would see them in LJU, but I can't see them fill 737-10s

      Delete
    2. Anonymous13:07

      QR's A321neos would have 166 seats. I doubt MAX 10 would have way more seats.

      Delete
  18. Anonymous12:36

    Good to see Croatia Airlines picking up quite a few passengers from Australian market.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It would be even better to see Croatia Airlines picking up those passengers in Bangkok or Singapore instead in Frankfurt and Munich. But for those used to kiss boss ass, think Graz is the World 's capital, and drink coffee and gossip instead serious work, it's impossible

      Delete
    2. Anonymous13:36

      Pozdrav, you always aim high, I respect that. Yes, the demand will be there really soon but exyu national airlines will get peneats of it, at best.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous14:02

      Sometimes way too high

      Delete
    4. Anonymous15:15

      So its better to feed Thai Airways than to feed LH?

      Delete
    5. If you do one hour flights and then let your passengers fly another airline for 12 hours, it means that you feed that other company, in this case LH, SQ, TG, CA, or whichever.

      If you operate 12 hours flights, for example ZAG-BKK-ZAG, and another company, TG, CA, SQ or whichever operate one, two or three hour flights between BKK and let's say Phuket, Saigon, KL, Manila, Hong Kong, Denpasar, then they feed you.

      If you both operate long haul, as it would be the case with AUS/NZ, and OU/TG pool, then you are partners which feed which other.

      The problem of OU is they are not partners within their own alliance, but feeder only, and they have no intention to work on it and change it.

      You cannot feed short haul with long haul, it's the other way round. And before posting, you should learn some basic things

      Delete
  19. Anonymous13:30

    Etihad is so silent about BEG, I'm afraid JU will snooze Australian market opening waiting for Etihad's return. Is it possible to find other code share partner for this market?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous21:49

      It was published here around 2 weeks ago that "Serbia remains part of their plans" and that they are considering returning to BEG.

      Delete
    2. Maybe British or Qatar, but I don't think so.
      Maybe if TK starts flying down under one day.

      Delete
  20. Anonymous16:27

    EX YU Aviation News where the data for Sarajevo ?

    ReplyDelete
  21. Anonymous21:50

    QR really far ahead of others on Australia- EX-YU sectors. Very interesting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous03:41

      QR is currently the only one offering single airline experience between Australia and EX-YU.

      Delete

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