Flight bookings for EX-YU markets tumble amid Ukraine war

The latest data from analytics company Forward Keys indicates that the ongoing war in Ukraine has caused an immediate stall in flight bookings to Europe, with almost all markets in the former Yugoslavia affected. Excluding Ukraine and Moldova, which closed their airspace, and Russia and Belarus, which are subjected to flight bans and safety warnings, bookings to Croatia and Slovenia have been among the most affected in Europe, declining between 30% and 50% compared to previous weeks before the start of the war. The markets of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo saw bookings decrease between 10% and 30%, while bookings for flights to Serbia decreased less than 10%.

Intra-European air traffic was more negatively affected than transatlantic travel. Flight bookings within Europe fell an average of 23%, whereas they decreased 13% from the United States. Montenegro’s National Tourist Organisation has warned that the ongoing war will have a big impact on the country’s summer tourism season. During the corona-impacted 2021, over 15% of all holidaymakers arriving to Montenegro were either from Russia or Ukraine. Flights between Russia and Montenegro have not been in operation since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. In 2019, a total of 631.561 passengers flew between Moscow and Tivat alone, with services from a number of other Russian cities, including Saint Petersburg, which accounted for 62.147 travellers. This summer will mark the absence of flights between Belarus and Tivat as well. Last summer, prior to the introduction of sanctions against Belarus, the country’s national carrier, Belavia, was planning up to four daily flights to Tivat. Finally, the fate of summer flights from Ukraine remains highly uncertain. Last summer, Ukraine International Airlines maintained twelve weekly flights to Tivat from four Ukrainian cities, while SkyUp Airlines operated twelve weekly services from three cities, and Windrose Airlines ran two weekly rotations from the Ukrainian capital.

New routes that were due to commence this summer from Ukraine to former Yugoslav markets included Ryanair’s service from Lviv to Zagreb, Ukraine International Airlines’ flights from Kiev to Split, Pula and Tivat, as well as Windrose Airlines’ service from the Ukrainian capital to Ljubljana. The Ukrainian market accounted for 3.3% of European passenger traffic and 0.8% of global traffic in 2021. The Russian international market represented 5.7% of European traffic (excluding the Russian domestic market) and 1.3% of global traffic in 2021. The sudden spike in fuel prices is putting further pressure on airline costs. “When we made our most recent industry financial forecast last autumn, we expected the airline industry to lose $11.6 billion in 2022 with jet fuel at $78/barrel and fuel accounting for 20% of costs. As of March 4, jet fuel is trading at over $140/barrel. Absorbing such a massive hit on costs just as the industry is struggling to cut losses as it emerges from the two-year Covid-19 crisis is a huge challenge. If the jet fuel price stays that high, then over time, it is reasonable to expect that it will be reflected in airline yields”, IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, said.