Flight bookings for EX-YU markets tumble amid Ukraine war


The latest data from analytics company Forward Keys indicates that the ongoing war in Ukraine has caused an immediate stall in flight bookings to Europe, with almost all markets in the former Yugoslavia affected. Excluding Ukraine and Moldova, which closed their airspace, and Russia and Belarus, which are subjected to flight bans and safety warnings, bookings to Croatia and Slovenia have been among the most affected in Europe, declining between 30% and 50% compared to previous weeks before the start of the war. The markets of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo saw bookings decrease between 10% and 30%, while bookings for flights to Serbia decreased less than 10%.

Intra-European air traffic was more negatively affected than transatlantic travel. Flight bookings within Europe fell an average of 23%, whereas they decreased 13% from the United States. Montenegro’s National Tourist Organisation has warned that the ongoing war will have a big impact on the country’s summer tourism season. During the corona-impacted 2021, over 15% of all holidaymakers arriving to Montenegro were either from Russia or Ukraine. Flights between Russia and Montenegro have not been in operation since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. In 2019, a total of 631.561 passengers flew between Moscow and Tivat alone, with services from a number of other Russian cities, including Saint Petersburg, which accounted for 62.147 travellers. This summer will mark the absence of flights between Belarus and Tivat as well. Last summer, prior to the introduction of sanctions against Belarus, the country’s national carrier, Belavia, was planning up to four daily flights to Tivat. Finally, the fate of summer flights from Ukraine remains highly uncertain. Last summer, Ukraine International Airlines maintained twelve weekly flights to Tivat from four Ukrainian cities, while SkyUp Airlines operated twelve weekly services from three cities, and Windrose Airlines ran two weekly rotations from the Ukrainian capital.

New routes that were due to commence this summer from Ukraine to former Yugoslav markets included Ryanair’s service from Lviv to Zagreb, Ukraine International Airlines’ flights from Kiev to Split, Pula and Tivat, as well as Windrose Airlines’ service from the Ukrainian capital to Ljubljana. The Ukrainian market accounted for 3.3% of European passenger traffic and 0.8% of global traffic in 2021. The Russian international market represented 5.7% of European traffic (excluding the Russian domestic market) and 1.3% of global traffic in 2021. The sudden spike in fuel prices is putting further pressure on airline costs. “When we made our most recent industry financial forecast last autumn, we expected the airline industry to lose $11.6 billion in 2022 with jet fuel at $78/barrel and fuel accounting for 20% of costs. As of March 4, jet fuel is trading at over $140/barrel. Absorbing such a massive hit on costs just as the industry is struggling to cut losses as it emerges from the two-year Covid-19 crisis is a huge challenge. If the jet fuel price stays that high, then over time, it is reasonable to expect that it will be reflected in airline yields”, IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, said.



Comments

  1. Anonymous09:01

    Not really sure how u can get much lower than ljubljana bookings. The fact that Maribor will have more news routes than ljubljana speaks for itself

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:11

      * new

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:17

      They won't, yes they are getting 3 after very long time. The problem is that we rather give and gave, money to fu**ing MBX rather than let say adri who colud fly out of mbx as well and they did.

      Anyway, LJU can't do nothing about aeroflot ban so there's a part it's not their fault.

      But yes I do agree Fraport should do way more that what they are doing.

      Delete
  2. Anonymous09:02

    I'm surprised bookings to Slovenia were that impacted.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous09:03

    It's going to be a rough ride, that's for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous09:04

    Not surprised about Serbia. Director of YUTA was on tv the other day and he said that people were not giving up on booking their summer holidays because of Ukraine. Don't forget that when it comes to these things, Serbs are fearless. When there was the coup in Turkey, no one refused to board a flight to Turkey. When there were shootings on the beach in Tunis no one cancelled their holiday.

    Same will be with Ukraine. I don't see why anyone from Serbia would cancel his booking unless he is going to Ukraine or Russia. And to Russia they might not go because ofhow expensive fares have become.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous19:14

      No it has obviously nothing to do with that BEG is one of the only places in EU that has flight to Russia.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous19:16

      BEG is not in the EU...

      Delete
    3. Anonymous20:21

      Europe

      Delete
    4. People will be cancelling their holidays due to high inflation and drop in standard of leaving.

      Delete
  5. Anonymous09:05

    Now we know why FR reduced some destinations from ZAG. People are just too afraid to travel at these unpredictable times.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Anonymous09:07

    Don't worry Covid will make a comeback too. Cases rising in Austria and Germany. New variant had been discovered.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:18

      :/

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:31

      Each new variant is more contagious but less deadly.

      Don't spread the panic. Unless it is your goal.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous10:43

      I'm not spreading panic, I'm just telling you that numbers are rising, including hospital admissions. They don't know yet anything about the new variant.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous12:19

      The world needs to learn to live with Covid and treat it as you would a cough or cold. It's good that the UK has some common sense at last! Masks need scrapping on flights also.

      Delete
    5. Anon 10:43 of course they know. The rise is due to Omicron sub variant BA.2 who’s been around for 3 months and now becoming dominant. 1.5 more contagious but not more dangerous. We’ll be fine unless we panic unnecessarily and rulers respond with measures.

      Delete
  7. Anonymous09:08

    Aviation industry just can't catch a break.

    - War
    - Covid
    - Oil prices

    EX-YU airlines are going to need a lot of state support.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:13

      "EX-YU airlines are going to need a lot of state support"

      So... business as usual.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:18

      Some will be unable to provide that support.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous09:18

      That in fact was the idea of those masterminding all these events, to reduce air travel for the mass public, to kill the idea about free travel and allow only the super rich to fly. Aviation as we know it will disapear.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous11:51

      JU has already received millions and don´t forget the subsidised domestic routes and not to mention the continuation of the flights to Russia buuut...

      Delete
    5. Anonymous11:52

      ^ I guess same as OU which has already received millions and don't forget the subsidised domestic routes. They don't fly to Russia since they barely fly to 10 international cities from ZAG.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous12:23

      Well said anon 11:52 !

      Delete
    7. Anonymous12:31

      When it comes to OU they are useless at this point. Last year they lost €38 million and this year I don't see them improving their finances. In two years they might have losses close to €80 million. At this point they are becoming worse than Jat.

      Delete
    8. Anonymous12:38

      The amount of aid given to OU is way much lower compared to JU. Also, the no. of employees vs fleet is another story...

      Delete
    9. Anonymous13:07

      Talking of JU, anyone know why there is a charter flight to IST on the A332 taking off right now? Regular flight on A319 is landing in IST.

      Maybe it is carrying passengers from canceled TK flights?

      Delete
    10. Anonymous13:09

      Yes because of snow storms in Istanbul many flights have been cancelled today and in the last few days. Situation should normalize tonight. Turkish is also operating tonight's Belgrade flights with A330-300.

      Delete
  8. Anonymous09:17

    Sad

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous09:23

    Just as recovery from Covid was beginning.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anonymous09:24

    It makes sense that countries relying on inbound tourism will be more affected than others.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anonymous09:24

    It's going to be a very difficult year for Tivat Airport.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:43

      Goes to show you should always work an diversifying your sources of tourism.

      Delete
  12. Anonymous09:27

    I'm pretty sure that this article is a bit off. The decline in booking is mostly effected by ban om Russian carriers. It's not that people don't want to fly its simply a case of less flights available. So no we are not seeing another corona crisis in aviation where flights were available but people weren't flying

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:29

      Sure. The loss of 5 weekly flights from Moscow to Ljubljana resulted in 50% decline in bookings to Slovenia.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:31

      You gotta remember that it's not just direct flights but also no-fly zones that are in effect. Myself I do business in Belarus and they are literally unaccessible right now. And not forget about Finnair canceling flights to Asia as well as many others.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous09:36

      Finnair already moved HEL-LJU from April to June.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous09:46

      Finnair had 60% people transferring to Asia so its understandable

      Delete
  13. Anonymous09:31

    In the US we have a lot of cancellations for holidays to Europe. And they are growing each week. No matter how close or far the country is from Ukraine, people are choosing to go to holiday mostly to central America instead.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:42

      It is logical. During the Iraq war in 2003, markets like UAE were affected with a big decline in tourists, even though they are not even geographically that close.

      Delete
    2. @ANONYMOUS 09:31 I don't know about other cities, but from Boston that my relatives own a tourist office through internet, the reservations to the new Delta airlines route to Athens are going extremely well! No cancelations for now.

      Delete
  14. Anonymous10:01

    Onla Serbia, Belgium and Iceland are in green zone.

    Fearless Serbs :-)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous11:16

      + Russian bookings.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous12:24

      From what I know, Russian bookings would only count for point to point. Transfer passengers are not counted as Serbian bookings since they are just transferrings planes.

      if someone is flying VIE-BEG-SVO then that booking is attributed to Austria and not Serbia or Russia.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous12:30

      Russian bookings play no significant role at all taking in consideration there are less seats offered now to Russia than before 24.2

      JU does not fly to KRR and ROV, Aeroflot & Nordwind do not fly to BEG.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous14:09

      JU flies double/triple daily often with wide-body.

      Delete
  15. Anonymous10:20

    Surely the war will have an impact on travel but people are still eager to fly. In Ireland, Ryanair has recently announced its largest number of destinations ever out of the 5 main airports. No matter how much the tickets go up by, people are so keen to fly after 2 years of Corona. Michael O'Leary might be a prick but he knows business. He is announcing massive expansion everywhere in Western and Central Europe.
    In additional, it's normal to have a drop in demand cause this was a shock for many people.
    Im confident that the demand will go up again as soon as some sort of agreement is made.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:41

      For example in Zagreb Ryanair has over the past few days decreased frequencies on a lot of routes for this summer.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous11:25

      It might be that there isn't a strong demand for Zagreb as it is for Zadar or Dubrovnik during the summer time....hence the reduced frequency

      Delete
    3. Anonymous12:25

      Inflation is eating away Europe's wealth. It's not so much the war in Ukraine that is lowering bookings but the fact that people in Europe have more expenses and less disposable income. Since we are in mid-March, we can bid farewell to any meaningful tourist demand for May. If this lasts longer then June will be a problem as well.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous12:26

      @anon 10:41

      Could you please list FR destinations that have been reduced this summer from ZAG?

      Thank you.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous12:27

      At the moment they reduced Corfu, Hahn, Dublin, Basel and Gothenburg. Each has one less frequency than it was initially planned.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous12:30

      For whole summer?

      Delete
    7. Anonymous12:54

      On the topic of FR, are they refunding passengers, who had tickets for flights to destinations in the Ukraine and Russia, or are they just keeping the money for travel on a later date.?

      Delete
    8. Anonymous13:08

      Anon 12.30
      Yes, for the whole summer. Reductions like DUB start in May.

      Delete
  16. Anonymous12:00

    Nice photo! Was this in Zagreb?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous12:05

      Yes I believe that was from when Mriya visited Zagreb.

      Delete
  17. Anonymous20:36

    Long haul flights to the region will be affected as well. Vacation demand from the US is traditionally sensitive to any instability in the wider region. Booking trends and any potential changes to United service to DBV could be canary in the coal mine indication for the whole region.

    Inflation, raise in Covid cases in China, Russia overflight insurance concerns and oil price increases will likely mean end of Air Serbia plans for long haul expansion this year. Flights from Korea to ZAG are unlikely to return this year.

    As already known since last fall, Air Canada is not returning to ZAG. Air Transat service to ZAG and Air Serbia service to JFK remain but reductions should not come as a surprise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Vlad21:44

      I don't think BEG-JFK will be impacted as it relies mostly on O&D pax from Serbia and Montenegro.

      Delete
  18. If only people could understand that no “uncertainty” or other “concerns” determine the oil prices. The prices are determined by SPECULATORS trading on commodity markets. They pump up the price under BS pretense like this one.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

EX-YU Aviation News does not tolerate insults, excessive swearing, racist, homophobic or any other chauvinist remarks or provocative posts with the intention of creating further arguments. A full list of comment guidelines can be found here. Thank you for your cooperation.