Zagreb Airport handled over two million passengers between January and July, marking its best performance to date during the seven-month period. However, the airport’s passenger numbers began to stagnate in May when compared to the pre-pandemic 2019 and growth failed to reach over 1% in July. Despite Ryanair opening a base in the Croatian capital in 2021 and launching over twenty new routes since, it has failed to compensate for Croatia Airlines’ reduced schedule out of Zagreb, as well as the loss of three airlines which maintained wide-body operations to the city over the summer months – Emirates, Korean Air and Air Canada Rouge.
The stagnant growth is expected to continue into August as the airport’s total offered capacity will be up just 1.6% on the same month in 2019. This month alone, Croatia Airlines has 25% fewer seats in Zagreb compared to four years ago, while other airlines that have notably reduced their number of flights or capacity include Eurowings, Iberia, Qatar Airways and Air France. Unlike in August 2019, the airport is no longer served by Aeroflot, Swiss, Brussels Airlines and Czech Airlines, in addition to the abovementioned wide-body operators. Overall capacity in September is currently projected to lift just under 3% versus 2019.
During the last month of the 2023 summer season in October, the airport is expected to accelerate its growth rate once again, with capacity set to increase in the double digits this December for the first time since April. Growth is expected despite Ryanair announcing the termination of three routes out of the Croatian capital from late October - Podgorica, Sofia and Manchester. At the same time the budget carrier will increase frequencies on several other routes including Malaga, Dublin, Gothenburg and Malta. Unlike last winter, Ryanair will not operate a weekend base in Zagreb and will have at least one departure out of its base each day of the week, although Fridays and the weekends will continue to be its busiest. Despite this, Ryanair will have some 2.000 fewer seats on its Zagreb flights this winter season compared to last. Croatia Airlines will continue to hold its position as the largest carrier in the city, with double the capacity of that of Ryanair. The pair will be followed by Turkish Airlines, Lufthansa, KLM, Austrian and Eurowings as the largest carriers in terms of capacity, while in terms of the number of flights, Croatia Airlines and Ryanair will be proceeded by Lufthansa, Turkish Airlines, KLM, Austrian Airlines, Air Serbia and LOT Polish Airlines.
Completely forgot that Swiss, Brussels Airlines and CSA all used to fly to ZAG in 2019.
ReplyDeleteMe too. So that's 7 airlines not flying this summer compared to 2019.
DeleteSwiss like Finnair has obviously chosen LJU over ZAG as the more lucrative airport in the region.
Delete9:21 the most lucrative with the least flights. Good job😀
DeleteAnd with the worst management in EX-YU.
DeleteSo tell me why would AY chose LJU over ZAG? There is obviously an economic reasons behind it.
DeleteThey haven't "closed it". You are speculating.
DeletePerhaps because Ljubljana does not have a single flight to Scandinavia and the Nordics and people use Finnair to transfer to these destinations.
DeleteFor baltics we mostly use WAW, for scandinavia (sadly) we use klm from zagreb
DeleteI think it has to do with LJU doing a better job at attracting Finnish tourists to fly there instead of other airports in the region.
DeleteIf you are from Slovenia flying to the Nordics is much faster via MUC, FRA or WAW.
Finnair has been flying to Ljubljana for almost 20 years (and still do this day just seasonally). Zagreb launched a year ago, and you expect the same results?
DeleteNo but I did not expect them to cut it so much this year. They are bringing it down to just one weekly on top of reducing overall capacity. Now they also cut the last flight. I at least expected better than this.
DeleteThere is obviously no demand for HEL-ZAG. What is worrisome is Vueling decimating flights to the Adriatic coast and terminating ZAG next summer. I guess this is good news for OU.
Forget AY to ZAG next year. Got info month ago. Regular traveler status.
DeleteI actually use OU from Copenhagen to Zagreb. Don't really know what they usually use on this route but this summer I flew both ways on an A319.
DeleteCompared to the years of Dash, that's one improvement I'm personally relieved about. I think that likely was THE worst OU route, taking way over 2hrs to get to ZAG, when a similarity distant Amsterdam had and hour and a half flights.
I literally preferred flying out of Malmø across the border regardless of where I needed to get in Croatia.
Well even compared to Ljubljana some destinations are falling in numbers
ReplyDelete- Zurich has been upgraded once again in Ljubljana and now has 3x weekly A321and 2x weekly A320
-Flydubai
-Belgrade
-Warsaw
-LHR from BA is now comparable during the winter
-Helsinki got scraped a month earlier
-Charter traffic
Last time I checked ZRH-LJU for week 11.9-17.9, Swiss has 3.318 seats (3x E190, 1x E190 E2, 1x A220-100, 2x A220-300, 2x A320 and 2x A321) while ZRH-ZAG has only Croatia Q400 with total 2.218 seats.
Deletewhats the capacity difference between zagreb and ljubljana on Zurich route?
DeleteZAG-ZRH 2.218 seats
DeleteLJU-ZRH 3.319 seats
LJU +1.101
Last time I checked for September a few days ago ZRH-LJU had 14.244 seats in both ways while ZRH-ZAG had 9.120, so LJU had 5.124 seats more.
DeleteSurreal!
DeleteLj fanboys, according to your comments Lj should be the most successful airport in the region...ups, wait, it is not.
DeleteZAG fanboys got their feelings hurt because ZRH-ZAG has less demand.
DeleteWow that's MASSIVE!
DeleteDoes anyone know how Helsinki route capacity was this summer? I flew with both A321 and E190 from Ljubljana and both flights were packed full...
9:47
DeleteI don't think a single person on here is saying that Ljubljana is preforming as it should. But the likes of Zurich, Warsaw and Belgrade are great - that's about it!
Well, facts are facts and LJU recorded its best post-JP month this July. Things are obviously improving and heading in the right direction.
DeleteIt would be disastrous if they hadn't reported their best post-JP month after 4 - FOUR years. Similar as Zagreb reported its busiest July ever.
DeleteWell LJU had a double disaster, JP dying and then covid hitting. What matter is that they are doing much better now.
DeleteZAG recorded its best month but this growth is dropping for a while now and at this rate it might not be there in August.
Ok, we will just wait and see at the end of month. Again, I know you excited by it but don't get your hopes up.
DeleteYes, let's hope this trend that was present for months now is somehow reversed so that ZAG resumes its double digit growth.
DeleteIf you read the article, double digit growth probably won't start until the end of the year.
DeleteOf course I read the article, I am merely expressing my doubts regarding the airport's projection.
DeleteI guess we are not allowed to question anything related to Croatia on here. Only to cheer and congratulate.
Who is cheering and congratulating? It's not the airport's projections, it is actual filed capacity.
DeleteRe Swiss from LJU, CH is Slovenia’s biggest trading partner (most exports go there at 21%).
DeleteLet me repeat what I already wrote: just because there is that much capacity on the market it doesn't mean it will translate into double digit growth.
DeleteThey need to sell those seats they put on the market. This summer many airlines flying into ZAG cut their capacity as there wasn't as much demand. So if that happened in summer then there is no reason to be optimistic about the upcomign winter season.
That is why I don't expect there to be double digit growth.
During Yugo times, both JAT and Swissair had DAILY flights each ZAG to ZRH on DC-9 /B737-300 (JAT) and MD-80 (Swissair). And it was not BEG-ZAG-ZRH, it was separate daily flights by both airlines both to ZAG and BEG. Thanks to wise politics which made Croatia one of the most prosperous european countries, 40 years later we have 2 Q400 flights per day, 100 % less. Bravo Hrvatska! Bravo Kradeze!
DeleteAnd now you'll even have less than LJU which didn't have flights to Zurich in ex-YU times.
DeleteOU is simply not competitive on this market and it's better to have LX just like they are more successful than JP was on this market.
LJU had year-round three weekly DC-9 to ZRH operated by JAT
DeleteBravo Hrvatska!
ReplyDeleteGood joke 😃
DeleteZagreb should really work on increasing frequencies around Christmas holidays, that is the best time to visit Zagreb
DeleteThe numbers would be dire had they not brought Ryanair.
ReplyDeleteThat's speculative. It is likely that had Ryanair not come, Croatia Airlines would not be at under 25% compared to 2019.
DeleteI don’t think that’s true. You can see how OU is proactive so doubtful they would do anything.
DeleteWhile Belgrade grows and grows, Zagreb stagnates. And it's not just because of OU. Example: Air Serbia flies to Berlin daily, but WIZZ is also opening a line to Berlin. Zagreb has no direct flight to Berlin.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone responded to the tender from ZAG Airport? Apparently even subsidies don't help
Very good article. Much better then some other “analysis” I read on another site where every other sentence is “what the hell is happening in Zagreb” and giving no answer.
ReplyDelete+100
DeleteExYu blog is so good that I automatically check it at 9am every day - it has almost became a routine. Good job whoever is in charge of it and to all the content creators working on it-kudos!
DeleteAgree. The best in ex-yu, and even wider
DeleteYes, this is analysis, with numbers and facts. Not only questions without answers as some self proclaimed annalists likes to do. Bravo exyu.
DeleteI fully agree with above comments.
DeleteHere we have a normal discussion about current topics and if you go on that other site you will see nothing but Kim Jong Un's way of different opinions understanding.
Don't understand why is Ex-Yu still only Ex-Yu. This blog is already outgrown this region and become one of top European aviation blogs. Come on Ex-Yu, face the challage and wider your area of interes.
Deletethen it will make no sense anymore. Exyuaviation is exyuaviation
DeleteEXYUA is essentially a curated newsfeeder.
DeleteDone well.
Not become wider region blog or eurpean. but instead Aviation blog for all Slavic nations and airlines.
DeleteI love reading about Ex-Yu and would love more also.
I think Bulgaria and Albania can be easily added, lot's of interest and they don't have their own aviation portals, at least no serious ones.
DeleteI am not buying what they are selling. What else are they supposed to say in these frivolous PR fluff pieces? If they failed to secure growth in the spring or the summer then they are most definitely not going to achieve it in winter when there is a lot less demand.
ReplyDeleteRyanair cut flights in winter because they know that there is going to be softer demand. Unfortunately 2024 won't be much better and Vueling and Finnair terminating flights to ZAG is a sign of that. Finnair has obviously chosen LJU as their main airport in the region as they already loaded flights for the 2024 summer season. Mind you some flights are already scheduled to be operated with the A321. This could be a good indicator that they expect some of their current ZAG capacity to be shifted to LJU.
LJU is hitting back and they are not holding back. They got winter flights by British Airways and Swiss is considerably boosting their presence there. Slovenes will be able to fly to Zurich on A320, A321, A220 etc. while Croats will have to stick to the ageing Q400s operated by the increasingly unreliable OU. So is ZAG losing the regional battle for Zurich like they lost it for Dubai? FZ has more seats to LJU than they do to ZAG.
Then Slovenia hit ZAG with LJU-SKP which is selling like hot cakes. Fares are getting higher and higher because people are paying peanuts to fly this route since their alternative is once again the ageing Q400 operated by OU. Btw OU is chariging €121 one way for ZAG-SKP while Wizz is charing €25 one way. I'd rather pay €50 return to fly on a brand new A321neo than €242 for OU. Croatia Airlines is increasingly writing cheques they can not cash!
Next summer JU is expected to boost LJU with noon flights. This is going to be another market where LJU will outperform ZAG.
ZAG bragged how they were going to profit from JP's demise and they did more or less. However now LJU is waking up and they are starting to reclaim lost ground. They already attracted flydubai, Luxair and next year airBaltic should launch flights.
Meanwhile ZAG has hiked fees and is hoping for the best. No strategy, no vision, no strategic planning... they are merely existing. That is why they are paying such a price now. Meanwhile LJU recorded its best month since JP's demise. For LJU this is just the start of a new chapter.
If I were you, I wouldn't get my hopes up about Finnair discontinuing Zagreb. Do you seriously think Finnair has finalized its summer network? Not to mention ZAG was put on sale for this summer in February.
DeleteI honestly hope they will not cut ZAG but things are not looking up for Franjo Tudjman's link with Helsinki. Finnair already cut the number of flights this summer and recently they downgraded the A321s to the Embraer. The other day they cancelled their last rotation which was planned for 08.10.
DeleteSo you honestly think they are going to give priority to an obviously underperforming route like ZAG?
I wouldn't call this a "PR fluffpiece". The article shows that based on the data the airport has not secured a replacement for the capacity it had. Not only did it not cover long haul capacity (which to a point is understandable) but it didn't cover short haul capacity (not understandable) and by bringing Ryanair as it is new favorite customer alienated its biggest customer.
DeleteAs for you claim that larger scale growth won't be back in winter, I highly doubt that. One thing that has changed compared to 2019 is that load factors have improved a lot and that is likely because of Ryanair. So if they have capacity growth of over 10%, it is likely passenger numbers will grow by as much or even above that.
They can put those seats on sale but it doesn't mean they are going to fill them. The same way Ryanair put TGD, SOF, MAN, MMX, FKB... on sale and we saw an increase in overall capacity but there were no takers so these flights were cut.
DeleteWe simply can't look at the future of ZAG without directly comparing it to what their biggest rival (LJU) is doing. Like I said, if they failed to thrive in summer like the rest of Europe then I don't see a business case for a strong winter season. Especially not with the current state of the European economy.
It is obvious that they are filling them. In May when the runway reconstruction was being done, it was reported that capacity had been reduced by 2% compared to 2019 while passenger numbers actually grew.
DeleteThey filled them in May but then in June and July we witnessed complete collapse in ZAG where they came to the verge of having fewer passengers than they did in 2019. Something went horribly wrong and would be good to know what happened there.
DeleteIn both months capacity was lower than achieved growth. It is written what went wrong. There were significantly fewer seats available than 4 years ago. Why is that the case, that is what the airport's management should have been dealing with and obviously hasn't bothered to address.
DeleteAnd you expect that same management to do something for the winter? Don't forget that OU did not finalize their network for the winter season and we have to see what they do in the end. I highly doubt there wasn't more capacity to ZAG because of the airport.
DeleteAirlines like Vueling cut flights, AF reduced capacity from A319/320 to E90 etc.
Capacity was there where it was because of airlines not seeing more demand.
"So is ZAG losing the regional battle for Zurich like they lost it for Dubai?"
DeleteWasn`t aware that there was a battle going on... I guess somebody`s playing too many video games in their parents` basement
Two airports that are 135 km one from the other are fighting for passengers in the same catchment zone. It's business 101. There is a reason why Tudjman organized a bus to Ljubljana.
DeleteMaybe you are the one who needs to leave his parents' basement and learn a thing or two when it comes to business.
I wondering who is taking a bus with this crazy timetable.
DeleteWhy is it crazy? What did they do now?
DeleteI'm happy about LJU finally recovering. And since we're both in the Schengen, who cares about which airport is doing better. What have you got out of any airport doing better or worse as a mere passenger? I'm pretty sure you ain't a stakeholder in either airport.
DeleteLjubljana is basically as close to Zagreb as Rijeka and far closer than Split, so better offer wins anyhow.
Fingers crossed for both airports. I consider both of them domestic, as do many Slovenes.
All Croatian airports should be worried about softer demand next summer. Its the most expensive country in the Med. Tourists will be after better value.
ReplyDeleteZagreb eyes...Zagreb eyes winter? Yes, because that is the time when people of the world come to Croatia...in winter...wait no.
ReplyDeleteEarlier Zagreb massive growth expectations for 2023 were not based on sound foundations. Once you start with inflated assumptions, you end up disappointed. Those who expected 3.9 million passengers and are placing the blame for lack of growth squarely with airport management are detached from real causes and reality in general.
ReplyDeleteFully agree!
DeletePeople have commented on LJU waking up with the new airlines. My thought is ,maybe these airlines are positioning themselves so that Slovenia will not 8nvest in a national airline. Justbmy thoughts.
DeleteAgreed last anon.
Delete