Markets across the former Yugoslavia are poised for a mixed summer based on existing capacity levels on scheduled flights during the second and third quarters. Notably, Wizz Air’s grounding of over forty aircraft due to engine inspections, and the subsequent cuts on a number of Eastern European markets including Macedonia and Serbia, will have an impact on the pair over the summer. Macedonia’s scheduled capacity is expected to contract by some 5% on last year, with 107.000 fewer seats than during the same period in 2023. On the other hand, Serbia’s capacity levels will remain flat, with minimum growth over the six months. Wizz Air itself will see capacity rise 0.1% on Q2 and Q3 on last year across its vast network.
Scheduled seat capacity, Q2 and Q3 2024
Croatia’s scheduled capacity will grow by over two million seats on last year, fuelled by Ryanair’s expansion in Zagreb and Zadar, as well as the opening of its Dubrovnik base. Overall, the number of available seats will increase by 20.4%. Montenegro’s capacity levels will surpass two million seats during the summer months, with Air Montenegro growing its operations, as well as new services by Pegasus Airlines, SAS, Flynas, Smartwings Poland, and El Al’s Sun d’Or. In addition, a number of carriers will significantly increase their number of flights and capacity on last year, including the likes of Norwegian, Turkish Airlines, Eurowings and LOT.
Bosnia and Herzegovina will see scheduled capacity remain similar to last year, with growth of 0.6%. Despite the strong increase in operations at Sarajevo Airport, it will be unable to offset the closure of Wizz Air’s base in Tuzla last September and a reduction in operations in Banja Luka. On the other hand, Slovenia will continue with its recovery, with an almost 20% increase in scheduled seat capacity on the six-month period in 2023. However, during the second and third quarters, Slovenia remains the second slowest recovering market in Europe on the pre-pandemic 2019, ahead of only Belarus. Elsewhere in Europe, a number of markets will still be below their summer 2019 capacity levels, including Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Bulgaria, Latvia, Germany, Russia, Czech Republic, Sweden, Moldova, and Finland.
Please note that the data in the above table is based on scheduled seat capacity currently available in the global distribution system. It does not include charter flights, which play a significant role on select markets. Further changes are likely as the summer progresses. Pristina’s seat capacity has not been included due to the bulk of its flights being categorised as charters.
Very nice growth in Croatia!
ReplyDeleteYes indeed.
DeleteMontenegro also this year will replace completely the Russian market traffic with European tourists. 🥳
Montenegro keeps winning!
DeleteReally? Montenegro has the slowest pace of recovery after Slovenia.... just 5% above 2019.
Delete@11:19
Delete+100
@11:19
DeleteYes which means it not only replaces its Russian traffic but increased it.
What happened to all those experts predicting a collapse because Vladimir and Julia won't come to Tivat for summer?
Well I'm pretty sure that Tivat numbers are still heavily down on 2019 and will stay that way this year. The 5% growth is likely being generated by Podgorica. Not that I predicted or am predicting some collapse.
DeleteIt's a well known ExYu blog fact that tourists who fly to Podgorica do not go for holidays in Tivat! 😄😂🤣
DeleteWe are talking about passenger numbers at airports not tourism numbers...
DeleteMontenegro should have had only one airport at Podgorica, make is one big, well medium airport handling 3-4 million pax each year, throw in 2 runways, as compensation for not having tivat. Build good roads and bob's your uncle.
DeleteI did not expect such an impact on Bosnia from Wizz's Tuzla exit.
ReplyDeleteThe impact of relying on one airline for all your traffic in TZL.
DeleteLet's be honest, it was their only choice
DeleteActually they had Ryanair and it was also a choice
DeleteTrue, forgot about Ryanair, which they chased away.
DeleteWell Ryanair was chased away from Tuzla by Bosnian Civil Aviation Authority, which decided it needed to collect taxes but 6 months later agreed it didn't need that taxes after all.
DeleteTZL did very little to attract any other airline and even less to keep Wizz.
DeleteWell the issue is that the operator (ie local government) keeps same management after these disastrous results (not to mention Lumiwings fiasco).
DeleteMacedonia from record growth in q1 to decline in summer...
ReplyDeleteIt is logical since Wizz has a big share of traffic.
DeleteHow is Ohrid impacted? How is it performing?
Delete"A number of other airports also saw their figures decline compared to last year, among which are Zadar, Niš, Split, and Ohrid."
Deletehttps://www.exyuaviation.com/2024/05/ex-yu-airports-handle-51-million.html
Meanwhile all of Wizz Air’s flights from and to SKP are packed. Mine from CPH two days ago was full, some pax were left in CPH due to overbooking. Also the gate agent gave all of us different seats from the original ones on the boarding pass. The plane had 186 seats, so they deployed the A320s in SKP with max capacity.
DeletePity that in Serbia the two largest airlines are not growing this summer.
ReplyDeleteAll things considered I'm surprised there is still some growth,
DeleteThey cannot grow every year
DeleteYes, but both had actually planned really strong growth for this year originally.
DeleteTaking in consieration how big was growth in 2023 this is more than expected.
Delete^ true that
Delete@09:24
DeleteThat just shows how poor job they did when they initially planned their resources.
We cant expect growth all the time. Serbia and Macedonia had big growth last year and this year will follow with the same or a little bigger numbers.
Delete1: Air Serbia is set to receive 5-6 aircraft in the next 2 months, from ATRs and Embraers to A330.
Delete2: Air Serbia is not risking scheduling more seats/services until aircraft actually arrive in Belgrade
Adding 1+2: Serbia will likely have more than 0.1% Q2&Q3 growth once those aircraft arrive in BEG and additional capacity is introduced to schedule.
Well done Croatia with +2 million seats!
ReplyDeleteVery good summer ahead.
DeleteThank you Ryanair.
DeleteCroatia will have growth next year as well as it will host Eurovision 2025.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThat's some inside news I guess. But the song is catchy.
Delete@Anonymous12:34
DeleteWe don't know who is going to win the Eurovision this year, so don't jinks it man.
As to Croatia having good year next year, it is have a blast this year, next year it'll just more of the same. This year Croatia has 16.4 million seats, Zagreb alone 5.67 million seats. Next year it'll be 20 million seats, or close to it. This year I expect 13.2-14.0 million passengers through all of Croatia's airports.
Zagreb - 4.3 million
Split - 3.85 million
Dubrovnik - 3.1 million
Zadar - 1.5 million
Pula - 650k
Rijeka 220k
Osijek/Brac combined - 80k
Total: 13.7 million ~ 95%
Next year is there are 20.00 million seats, highly probable, as this year we might end up with a total of 16.5 million seats offered, which is growth of about 3,3 million seats on 2023 when 13.2 million seats were offered on the market. With 20 million seats, very likely Croatia will have more than 15 million passengers in 2025, could be as high as 16 million.
Split airport sadly this year is underperforming for some reason, very slow start to the season. We'll see how summer turns for Split, but I don't think they'll do as good as I initially hopped. Split airport will reach 3.75 million passengers this year is most likely .could be as high as 3.85 million but it won't be 4.0 million I was hoping for. On a more positive note, Dubrovnik will manage 3.0 million and might reach 3.1 million this year. If that happens, Croatia will have 3 airport over 3 million passengers this year and very likely 3 airports over 4,0 million next year as Dubrovnik will grow like mad in 2025, hopefully Split too. Zagreb could also hit 5.0 million next year if this year Airport manages to reach 4.3 million.
Increased capacity of Croatian Airlines, i.e introduction of 15 A220 aircraft with increased annual flight operations that could reach 32000 when all A220s are delivered, and massive expansion of capacity (4.5 million available seats) would play significantly in passenger growth at all 3 main airports in Croatia, Zagreb especially by 2030. Even at 75% load factor, 4.5 million x 75% = 3.37 million passengers could be carried by Croatian Airlines by 2030, thanx to A220 fleet that will replace mix of A320 family and Q400s. Currently Croatian Airlines is handling around 1.73 million passengers in 2023 and probably around 2.0 million this year. In 2025 OU potentially could handle around 2.2 million passengers,.
LJU is still so far away from 2019 :/
ReplyDeleteFraport fanboys would make you believe the numbers have never been better.
DeleteThe passenger count drop will be less dramatic at the end, as LF is much higher compared to 2019 (the market is still very much underserved). But what is illustrative - all the other markets in the ex-yu region are much higher, so LJU is performing badly... In normal circumstances, it should be close to +20% which means cca 50% gap. It can not be excused by "Adria transfer passengers" anymore (approx. 15%).
DeleteLjubljana has also a lot of charter pax. In the end it will be on -25% probably (still a lot) but better
DeleteAt least it's good to see Slovenia not at the bottom of these aviation rankings for once.
DeleteYes, now it's second last. Behind Belarus under sanctions. Great success.
DeleteWas 2018 busier than 2019 in Ljubljana?
DeleteYes
Delete2018 - 1,818,229
Delete2019 - 1,721,355
It was. LJU had 1.812.411 passengers in 2018 and 1.721.355 in 2019
DeleteIn specific case of LJU the comparison should be done to 2018 instead of 2019...
DeleteI'm guessing that would be close to 40% decline.
DeleteNot so much for Q2 and Q3, but Q4 makes a lot of difference (and on yearly basis as well).
DeleteMinsk now is with real numbers 2-3 mln, now they have losed 2-3 mln transfer pax.
DeleteTransfer passengers are REAL numbers and most airports in the world attempt to have them.
Delete"Real numbers" lol
DeleteCongrats to most
ReplyDeleteAt least it is good to see BiH back growing. In Q1 there was a big decrease.
ReplyDeleteVery interesting info
ReplyDeleteNow it will be interesting to see how big of a load factor each market has on its flights.
DeleteUsually the more LCCs the bigger the average LF
Delete^ charters too
DeleteI'm wondering what Wizz will do in SKP and BEG this winter. Will the cuts continue or will they slowly return to growth.
ReplyDeleteI think we will only see growth from Wizz next summer.
DeleteIn my last comment I meant to say that Wizz Air will probably start growing from next summer, not before.
Deletewow Wizz at just 0.1% growth on 2023 across entire network is a disaster for an LCC.
ReplyDeleteA so-called self aviation expert was constantly writing how Wizz Air is growing everywhere and it is only in Serbia that they are not lol.
DeleteTuzla won't be seeing recovery from Wizz leaving anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteAre they even talking to any other airline?
DeleteNo
DeleteThese numbers put things into perspective. Often we get completely different perception if reading just the comments.
ReplyDeleteI think Serbian market will see very big growth in 2025. I expect Air Serbia to return to wide scale growth (they have already hinted at that), Wizz will come back and I actually expect Nis to see some growth too. They didn't build the new terminal for it to be empty.
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteOne who was proclaimed analiticar on this site claims differently but JU proves everything opposite. His favorite Dubrave closes toward his Ponikve. You can also see brain function instability for Petrovic on other blog.
DeleteAnalitičar loves JU and considers it a successful airline.
DeleteONLY ON THURSDAY MORNINGS.
DeleteHow come ZAG is reported to have some 30% more available seats in Q1 than PRN, yet PRN is still ahead by some 40k?
ReplyDeleteDoes that mean LF in one is around 60%, and in PRN is over 90%?
PRN has two metrics. One is scheduled capacity which is normally showed here, the other is charter flights which we do not have info about. For Pristina only a number of pax is relevant
DeleteBravo Hrvatska!
ReplyDeleteGood job Croatia! Almost more capacity than all other nations combined!
ReplyDeleteIt is to be expected from a country that relies heavily on summer tourism no?
DeleteEveryone wants to visit beautiful Dalmatia!
Delete"Everyone" is a tad bit of a generalisation. But yeah, tourists swarm in large numbers during summer, but the place is completely dead in winter. It's busy as a seasonal market.
DeleteAnon 11:37
DeleteThankfuly, airports and other subjects found a way how to attract more air passengers.
Yet no airport has more than 4 million. Compare that to Palma, Antalya or Barcelona for reality check.
DeleteCroatia is not heading for mass tourism such as Spain or Turkey, hence a comparison with those countries doesn't make sense. Moreover, it has nine civil airports, of which four have more than one million annual passengers, indicating that the air traffic is not centralized to reduce the capex and opex but rather decentralized to provide more direct flight opportunity (and more investment and more employment) to different parts of the country.
DeleteAnon 12:52 somehow comment reveals your origin...
DeleteJealousy or not, those numbers are great, especially for Ex-Yu region!
Since when is Croatia not going after mass tourism? It is not tiny and constrained like Monaco where mass tourism is simply not possible. Greece air traffic is also not centralized, look at their numbers. Or Portugal. Or Thailand.
DeleteWell those numbers are huge success for this region.
DeleteBoth Greece and Portugal are pretty isolated countrys for turistis to come by road. It doesn't need to be mentioned that tourists that come to those countrys are primary from Western Europe (UK, Germany, France). Therefore numbers are pretty logical.
DeleteI believe that Thailand does not need to be explained in particular...
"Anonymous12:52
DeleteYet no airport has more than 4 million. Compare that to Palma, Antalya or Barcelona for reality check."
You also have to look at starting point, Croatia practically had no real tourism industry when it comes to infrastructure till early 2010s, most if not all airports where built in the 80s, and and had limited capacity. Croatian aviation market till 2010 was barely strong enough to account for 5 million passengers all airports. Before 2010, Croatia had less than 8 million visitors, in 2024 it'll have 22 million. Croatia is also very close to its nearest emitting markets, Italy, Germany, Austria, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary. So these tourist in large part drive to Croatia, 75% of them that is. French, Benelux, Scandinavian, British, Irish, Polish and Baltic visitors use airports more than any other form to choose Croatian destinations and this is where mostly our growth comes from and of course intercontinental flights.
Spain is aviation destination and will remain so, same goes for Italy, Greece and Portugal. Croatia will remain by an large a car destination for most important markets to Croatia. Once train infrastructure is up to scratch, by 2030s, this is where there'll be a massive growth, once high speed line to Split is built via Dreznica which also connects to high speed Rijeka - Zagreb - Koprivnica line this will open whole new segment for Croatian travel, as frequent high speed train travel be possible, Zagreb - Split with in 3 hours, or Zagreb - Rijeka with in 1 hour or from Vienna to Zagreb with in 3 hours and to Split with in 6 hours. Of course Licka and Dalmatinska Pruga will be modernized too, but will become more of scenic routes, offering spectacular views of the countryside.
This is wild! I thought Europe was recovering much better,
ReplyDeleteElsewhere in Europe, a number of markets will still be below their summer 2019 capacity levels, including Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Bulgaria, Latvia, Germany, Russia, Czech Republic, Sweden, Moldova, and Finland.
Hmm wondering where Bulgaria is at compared to 2019.
DeleteAnon 11:35
DeleteSource?
In the article, second last paragraph last sentence.
DeleteVery long list. I'm surprised too.
DeleteMany of Croatia's markets have yet to recover, Croatian intercontinental network is still slow to recover, so far only Australian and US markets have recovered, well this year they will. Korean, Japanese, Chinese, South East Asian and South American markets are 70-80% down on 2019.
Delete"Slovenia remains the second slowest recovering market in Europe on the pre-pandemic 2019, ahead of only Belarus" - simply unbelievable! Bare in mind that there sanctions on Belarus as well...
ReplyDeleteCrazy and sad
DeleteIn bo zaradi uničenja lastnega letalskega prevoznika tako tudi ostala. Vedno bo odvisna od muhavosti tujih prevoznikov in nesposobne politike, ki ne more dojeti, da je letalski promet del infrastrukture. 5 let že pričakuje čudežno rešitev od tujcev.
DeleteTuzla negotiates with Turkiye aviocompanies to open base and flights,more of them.
ReplyDeleteThey have been negotiating with Turkish carriers over bases for the past 10 years. Just like they announced how Wizz will reopen base, which turned out to be pure rubbish.
DeleteFor Tuzla's sake I really hope they reach a deal
DeleteGood to see the numbers
ReplyDelete