Ryanair has adopted a notably restrained approach to growth across the former Yugoslav markets in 2026, marking a clear departure from the aggressive expansion strategies it pursued in previous years. Unlike earlier periods, when the Irish low cost carrier rapidly scaled operations by capitalising on Wizz Air’s challenges and capacity restraints, Ryanair’s plans for the coming year point to consolidation, although the carrier may yet schedule new routes and capacity growth. At this point, the airline has a combined total of 2.47 million seats on markets in the former Yugoslavia during the peak summer travel period in June, July and August, up just 2.8% year-over-year. This is compared to the 15.7% growth it recorded over the same period in 2025 compared to the previous year.
The low cost airline has so far announced just two new routes to the region next year, both catering to Polish holidaymakers. The carrier will introduce seasonal flights from Poznan to Podgorica and from Gdansk to Dubrovnik. Unlike in 2025, Ryanair does not plan to operate flights from Zagreb to Pisa, Hahn and Marseille, from Zadar to Hamburg and Maastricht, or from Split and Rijeka to Vienna. However, the airline plans to increase overall frequencies from Croatia, while scaling back operations in Banja Luka and Niš. This comes as Ryanair pursues a broader consolidation strategy across Europe, having recently announced significant capacity reductions in markets including Germany, France, Spain, Portugal, Austria and Estonia.
Ryanair has recently held discussions with Sarajevo Airport but has so far not committed to launching any new services. The carrier plans to maintain the same level of frequencies as in the summer of 2025, with the addition of one extra weekly flight on its Memmingen route. Meanwhile, in 2026, Ryanair enters the fifth and final year of the Growth Incentive Model it has benefited from so far at Zagreb Airport and contributed to its expansion. The broader shift in the airline’s regional strategy comes as Wizz Air stabilises its operations across the former Yugoslav markets and begins to pursue a more assertive expansion strategy of its own.
I'm just wondering if it's calm before the storm or they have pulled the breaks on expansion for next year.
ReplyDeleteLooks like it's going to be the latter.
DeleteLet's wait and see. There is still time. Although in general they have added very few routes next year, regardless of the region/location.
DeleteIt would make no sense for them to expand significantly from ZAG in their final year of subsidies unless they have strong guarantees they will get more subsidies.
ReplyDeleteI just don't get how almost every ex-Yu airport managed to have new routes next year except Zagreb. Anyone I hope ZAG secures some new routes in 2026 be it from Ryanair or someone else.
DeleteThat's good news for Croatia Airlines.
DeleteBut the thing is even Croatia Airlines didn't add new routes from Zagreb. They went for Split and Dubrovnik. It's just odd.
DeleteI still keep thinking it has something to do with them wanting to avoid the terminal expansion next year and are trying to delay it.
DeletePeople keep talking about that expansion because of the concession contract but as if they couldn't renegotiate with the government to push it back to 6 million passengers and as if the government would not agree to it. Remember they were originally chosen and contracted to build a much larger terminal and didn't. ADP was chosen to run the airport but it is now fully run by Turkish TAV.
Delete^ fair point
DeleteNot surprising at all. Ryanair is pulling back everywhere, not just in the Balkans. Too many seats in Europe which is resulting in lower loads and cheaper fares. Ryanair needs full cabins in order to earn more.
ReplyDeleteActually Ryanair continues to grow its capacity in Europe.
DeleteI don't know where some of you get your "facts".
And how much is it growing capacity in Europe next year?
DeleteEuropean expansion 2026 vs 2025 will expected to be 3% yoy; definetely slowing down from 9% growth in 2024 snd 2025….talking about passengers, not finances here
DeleteOnce incentives start expiring the expansion suddenly slows.
ReplyDeleteMakes sense.
DeleteRyanair had a free run for a couple of years. It's over now
ReplyDeleteAnd only a year and half ago they were saying they are going to be the largest airline in the Balkans.
DeleteIt's great that booth will be competing. More choice and better prices for passengers
Delete*both not booth, sorry
Delete08:38 is absolutely correct.
DeleteBut we still get some genius here wishing that LCCs would vanish from our region so that we are stuck again with their favorite state owned carrier...
@07.35
Deletejust a month ago they said how Wizz Air would collpase.
Would be great if all articles were published at 7:00 in the future.
ReplyDeleteMy steak is too juicy and my lobster is too buttery.
DeleteNo need for the theatrics.
DeleteGuy probably lives in US.
Ryanair has already picked most of the low hanging fruit in the region. Without ever higher subsidies, there isn’t much left to justify aggressive growth.
ReplyDeleteThere are still a lot more opportunities in Sarajevo.
DeleteThe managment mess at SJJ certainly didn't help. Maybe if Bajic it's reinstated things change
DeleteThis is the truth about the lowest hanging fruit. Everything else will be more effort. The routes from Zagreb have especially been optimised - Pisa flights for example had load factors as if they were OU flights, not FR.
DeleteStill even with this miniature growth, I am optimistic for 2027.
Ryanair used Wizz Air’s problems perfectly in 2023–2025. Now that Wizz is back on its feet the easy gains are gone.
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteDo you think they might even lesve zagreb if they dont grt another 5 years scheme?
ReplyDeleteHighly doubt ZAG would allow that to happen.
DeleteFor heaven's sake anonymous 09. 11, it probably is your wet dream, but are you aware that Ryanair is increasing Zagreb, modestly but increasing, are you aware average LF is around 90 percent, are you aware they are pressing in order to get old terminal, base more aircraft and open more routes? Leaving Zagreb, hau jes nou
DeleteI don't believe that LF is 90%. You can find tickets for 15 EUR on many destinations from ZAG, few days before flight. That's not so good for company.
Delete@11:08 Ryanair know exactly how to fill aircraft, and are the market leaders on almost every aspect of aviation so believe what you wish sir.
DeleteI'm not talking about Ryanair ( in this case about Lauda). I'm talking about Zagreb possibilities. O new lines in next year talking enough.
Delete^ And yet I'm pretty sure ZAG next year will have a higher growth rate in traffic than say BEG.
DeleteSuper. Enjoy in success.
DeleteAs far as I can see, BEG added more passengers this year than ZAG. Looks like next year will be similar.
DeleteI think they are saving some planes to launch SKP next year, a new base with 4 planes initially, gear up everyone and Happy new year! :)
ReplyDeleteLol they literally said the other month they won't fly to Macedonia.
Delete9:20 wishful thinking indeed. Lol
Delete@anon 09:22 where did they said that?
Deletehttps://www.exyuaviation.com/2025/08/macedonian-government-rejects-ryanairs.html
Delete@09:20 jumping in with a 4 aircraft base would never be Ryanair's way. SK would always begin with a couple routes, perhaps to Italy and Sweden. But if it was to come it would cause a war with Wizz as the market in North Macedonia is relatively small.
Deletehe is joking and you fell for it. in the same time he wanted to bash SKP for no reason
DeleteI could still imagine Ryanair launching a couple of new SJJ routes. Last year they announced new routes on January 8.
ReplyDeleteFingers crossed
DeleteRyanair will not touch LJU as long as Fraport will be it's owner. Looks like that EasyJet is their favourite. Who knows, maybe LJU is going to be their stronghold in the region.
ReplyDeleteMBX had a chance to get Ryanair though, but missed out on it.
DeleteLOL, Ryanair has zero problem flying to so many other Fraport operated airports but in LJU they draw the line and refuse to do business with them! 🙄
DeleteThey said multiple times that LJU is too expensive for them
DeleteFR says that every airport is too expensive for them in the hope that they will allow them to fly for free.
DeleteRyanar failed in Zagreb. According to who, you may ask? According to Michael O'Leary's own plans presented at the press conference in Zagreb, Sept 2021:
ReplyDelete“The airport should be handling 3.5 million passengers next year [2022], six million in 2023 and over seven million travellers in 2024. We [Ryanair] plan on carrying over ten million passengers in cooperation with Zagreb Airport over the next five to six years”
https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/09/ryanair-to-unveil-zagreb-expansion-today.html
Very accurate. That's why no expansion next year, probably they will close base by 2027, after 5 year deal finishes.
DeleteLOL
DeleteRyanair will be launching new routes in ZAG as soon as the airport blinks first. This is all part of the negotiation game.
ReplyDeleteCutting secondary German routes says more about Germany than the Balkans.
ReplyDeleteIt is because of taxes in Germany. The government recently surprisingly reduced them so let's see what happens.
DeleteIf Wizz Air really pushes in 2026, Ryanair may regret standing still.
ReplyDeleteI highly doubt they will be standing still for long.
DeleteRyanair squeezing frequencies instead of opening routes tells you margins are under pressure.
ReplyDeleteSqueezing frequencies instead of collecting new destinations is actually a good idea.
DeleteWould love JU to do it.
I guess Ryanair will still ad new routes later in next year to Ex Yu.
Air Serbia does well so it can both expand destinations AND increase key frequencies for 2026. From couple of days ago: From a financial perspective, the year will certainly be profitable, although we do not yet know the final result. Performance is better than originally budgeted.
DeleteAdding frequencies, if you didn't read it here on Dec 18: In addition to launching new services, Air Serbia will primarily focus on densifying its existing network during the 2026 summer season. Destinations set to see frequency growth include Vienna, which will increase to three daily services, or 21 weekly flights, up from seventeen, Athens, rising from fourteen to eighteen weekly, Milan, increasing from nine to eleven weekly, and Brussels, which will grow from three to five weekly rotations. A further group of destinations will see the addition of one extra weekly rotation compared to the 2025 summer season. These include Bucharest, Florence, Istanbul, Lisbon, Madrid, Malta, Nice, Oslo, Prague, Thessaloniki, Stuttgart and Tbilisi.
Thats good to hear.
DeleteJUs network is already good as it is.
Happy new year to all f you!