Ryanair’s Chief Commercial Officer, Jason McGuinness, will hold a press conference in Zagreb next Wednesday, where he is expected to unveil the airline’s plans for the Croatian market for the 2026 summer season. The carrier told EX-YU Aviation News last week that it is in the process of finalising its schedule. Ryanair maintains a base in Zagreb, as well as seasonal bases in Dubrovnik and Zadar. So far, it has scheduled two new routes for the upcoming summer. from Dubrovnik to Budapest and Gdansk. Unlike in 2025, Ryanair has not scheduled flights from Zagreb to Pisa, Hahn and Marseille; from Zadar to Hamburg and Maastricht; or from Split and Rijeka to Vienna.
This year, Ryanair enters the fifth and final year of the Growth Incentive Model from which it has benefited at Zagreb Airport, an arrangement that led to the opening of its base in the Croatian capital. Under the five-year agreement, the airline was required to add at least 75.000 departing passengers per year in order to maintain the incentives, with the possibility of securing further discounts if it exceeded 150.000 additional departing passengers. This framework provided Ryanair with a strong incentive to steadily increase its traffic from the Croatian capital each year.
Ryanair recently said it would reallocate capacity from several markets to the likes of Croatia. At this stage, the airline has 22.804 flights scheduled on the Croatian market for the 2026 summer season, representing an increase of 4% compared to last year. The low cost carrier currently has a total of 4.258.792 seats on sale on its Croatia services, marking a year-on-year capacity increase of 4.5%. In 2025, Ryanair was Croatia’s largest airline by capacity, holding a 28% market share, ahead of Croatia Airlines, which accounted for 19.4%.
Wonder if they will announce more routes from ZAG
ReplyDeleteWhich new routes could they launch?
DeleteBaltics are a no brainer
DeleteMaybe Spain or Scandinavia?
DeleteOr some Chech, Polish, Romanian destination... Maybe LUX and something in Portugal.
DeleteAll of those would make sense
DeleteOr some Greek destinations even ATH as Aegean operates now year round 3 weekly flights seems that demand is there
Delete+1
DeleteIf Paphos works from ZAG for FR so would a number of Greek destinations, not just ATH.
On July 23rd it will be exactly 5 years since Ryanair came to Zagreb. This event could mean two things: either announce fifth aircraft in Zagreb or throw rocks if incentives are not being continued.
ReplyDeleteYes, will be interesting to watch
DeleteBut can airport afford another 5 years? is it profitable for them?
DeleteNo. They will have to come up with some new scheme. Can it be profitable both for Zagreb airport and Ryanair, it's hard to tell. Maybe they'll bring in old terminal and then make the plan around it, we'll have update next week...
DeleteLosing Ryanair scale would be too risky.
DeleteTo me, the existing inconsistencies in the schedule, like Zagreb-Sofia not operating for 2 months in the middle of summer, indicate there will be some new routes.
DeleteW6 would probably jump to the opportunity opening a base in ZAG if Ryanair decides that the subsidy ain't big enough.
DeleteThere are rumors that W6 should be opening a base in ZAG,however we will have more information in june.
DeleteWhats the source of that statement?
DeleteThe source is "trust me bro" and anonymous comments on this website.
DeleteCould be ZAG's strategy/spin for negotiations with Ryanair
DeleteInteresting timing. Does Ryanair consolidate or do we see another expansion?
ReplyDeleteThey are not going to hold a press conference to announce a consolidation.
DeleteThey have done it before.
DeleteA 4% increase in flights and 4.5% in seats is solid but not spectacular. Considering Ryanair said it would reallocate capacity to Croatia, I expected a bigger jump.
ReplyDeleteSome route cuts are normal fine tuning. They are still growing.
Deletegiven how large Ryanair’s base in Croatia already is, that’s actually a significant number of additional passengers.
Delete5% growth is not spectacular but it's pretty strong.
DeleteWe can't tell it by heart, it depends on FR's average growth rate in the network and on average European growth rate in aviation this year.
DeleteRyanair holding 28% market share is huge. That’s more than Croatia Airlines by a wide margin. Without FR, Zagreb would look very different today.
ReplyDeleteIt's significantly more than Croatia Airlines because Ryanair flies aircraft with 95% load factor and Croatia Airlines flies with 60%.
DeleteIf Zagreb Airport doesn’t extend favourable terms, Ryanair could quickly shift aircraft elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteThat's what happens when you get into bed with Ryanair.
DeleteBetter than a half empty airport
DeleteFR's negotiating position today is not as strong as it was 5 years ago.
DeleteI would argue it's stronger than 5 years ago. It singlehandedly delivered all of Zagreb's growth in the last 5 years.
DeleteYou need to look at some statistics if you think Ryanair was the only airline growing at Zagreb.
DeleteI did look at the statistics from last year which were published here and have a direct comparison to 2019 as well. Many airline still below 2019 levels.
DeleteIn 2026 market there is no Covid lockdowns, W6 has fixed its fleet issues, AF/KL is making a big push for our region and Europeans travel at record levels.
DeleteIn 2021 airports were desperate, not in 2026.
+1
DeleteAgree 100%
Time for fourth aircraft in Zagreb.
ReplyDeleteYou are very late. They have 4 aircraft in Zagreb for years.
DeleteSorry meant fifth aircraft
DeleteRyanair is clearly focusing on volume. The question is whether Croatian airports are comfortable with such high dependence on one carrier.
ReplyDeleteWould you mind explaing how one quarter of passenger traffic, and no cargo, with another +20 airlines operating year-round and +50 operating seasonally can be "dependence on one carrier?"
DeleteYou have an airport like Zadar where they hold over 80% of all capacity.
DeleteSPU is near by,. ZAD could close tomorrow and the area would still be full of tourists in the summer.
DeleteZadar would not exist without Ryanair. That is not "dependence", that's their whole existential strategy. How is that a bad thing? The airport is super happy with Ryanair.
DeleteDubrovnik has plenty of non-Ryanair traffic even with the Ryanair base there.
Zagreb still has a lot of traffic from other airlines too, despite Ryanair growing so strongly there.
Finally. Let's see if they deliver new routes.
ReplyDeletei dont know why but i think they will not be present in a same way as today ...
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean?
Delete"Ryanair recently said it would reallocate capacity from several markets to the likes of Croatia"
ReplyDeleteSugarcoating of what has been their strategy all these years which is to assert their business rules onto others and when that does not work they move elsewhere...
Your shop raise prices- you go for your necessities to the other shop. Countries or airports raise taxes- they go to other countries and other airports. Is it so difficult to understand?
Delete^ There isn't an infinite number of countries that tens of millions of tourists want to visit in Europe.
DeleteFR has repeatedly threated and screamed about the fees in Spanish, French, Greek, Portuguese airports.
BUT every single year they increase capacity in these very markets because that's where people want to travel. O'Leary has understood this and thus continues to add seats to Spain rather than to Slovakia or Estonia.
@Anonymous 10:15
Delete+1000
Τhe country someone's visiting is not a shop like any other that differentiates based on price. If that was the case Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria would be full because they are much cheaper than Italy, Spain, Greece, France etc.
Well obviously cost is not the only factor. Egypt and Tunisia can offer free flights and free hotels and people would still avoid them because of a whole bunch of reasons. There's a reason they are cheaper than Spain and Italy.
DeleteCost is not only factor even when you choose a shop and not even in Serbia where you have several types, from value-for-money to the super premium. There are many differentiators beside the price (lifestyle is really important), although during the crisis the price becomes most relevant.
DeleteThe incentive model worked exactly as designed — it brought rapid growth. The question is whether growth is sustainable without financial support.
ReplyDeleteThe question is why Zagreb Airport has such high fees to begin with. Lower fees for all airlines would bring more traffic from everyone. But the government sold the operational rights of this critical infrastructure to a foreign private company so we are where we are.
DeleteRyanair has been vocal about high taxes and fees across Europe. If Croatia remains competitive, it could attract even more aircraft in 2026.
ReplyDeleteI think they won't announce anything new. Just promote their new routes.
ReplyDeleteYou think they will hold a press conference to announce two seasonal routes from Dubrovnik?
DeleteLet’s wait for the press conference. Ryanair usually likes to surprise with at least one unexpected announcement.
DeleteSo unless the airport gives a new incentive scheme, Ryanair will have to pay full prices from 2027 onward?
ReplyDeleteThey would still qualify to the overall incentives available at the airport but they are much less generous.
DeleteAha, could you explain a little more in detail since I am not familiar with them. Thanks!
DeleteThe airport has different traffic incentive models. Ryanair is currently benefiting from the rapid growth model but that one has a limit of five years, so the only model they could use from next year onwards would be the traffic volume model.
DeleteMaybe an announcement that they will be moving to the old terminal?
ReplyDeleteI don't think that is realistic. It would be too expensive for the airport to activate and run the new terminal.
DeleteAnd that would also be a long process to do.
DeleteDoes not sound feasible to me. But who knows
DeleteWatch out Croatia Airlines!
ReplyDeleteIf they decide to add new routes it will be scandinavia and poland for sure.
ReplyDeleteFR has a small presence in the Nordics. Poland I could definitely see.
DeleteFR operates from 6 airports in sweden and 2 in finland, and serves zagreb from only gothenburg and malmo. Stockholm is an easy pick, another one Helsinki. If they start Stockholm for example, they will kill the OU line.
DeleteThey will not start any route directly in competition with OU because they can't get incentives for it, at least under the current plan.
DeleteThey started Dublin against Croatia Airlines and pushed Croatia Airlines out.
DeleteThat is the only route. But you can read the incentive rules. You can't get money if you launch a route already in operation.
Delete@anon 11:07 Helsinki is not flown today, and Stockholm has dubious situation with both Skavsta and Västerås, which are marketed as Stockholm but... Fine print.
DeleteAnd massive amount of lines possible from Poland.
Looking forward to hearing from them
ReplyDeleteWonder if McGuiness will say something about yet another round of Croatia Airlines state aid.
ReplyDeleteLast time they sued them over the covid aid but they lost the case.
DeleteRyanair never sued Croatia Airlines. Get your facts right.
DeleteThey sued the European Commission for allowing OU's state aid
Deletehttps://www.exyuaviation.com/2022/11/ryanair-loses-court-challenge-against.html?showComment=1668175129664
And FR has lost all these lawsuits.
DeleteIt only makes the lawyers richer.
Hoping for new routes!
ReplyDelete3 aircraft base from 1 May in RJK, seasonal summer only.
ReplyDeleteIf that is true, it would mean they are definitely not counting on ZAD for future growth.
DeleteNew base in RJK, one would expect the announcement from Rijeka, not Zagreb. So, no.
Delete