Zagreb Airport is introducing a revised four-year Growth Incentive Model, marking a notable shift in its route development strategy compared to the previous scheme launched in 2021, and opening the door for competitors to challenge Ryanair’s dominance across a number of thin and secondary markets. While the earlier model was designed exclusively to stimulate the launch of entirely new routes, the updated framework expands its scope to also support so-called “thin routes” - services operated by a single airline without competition. The new incentive model comes into effect on June 1, with airlines eligible to apply until December 31. Ryanair was the only beneficiary of the previous scheme.
Under the original programme, carriers were required to generate at least 75.000 additional departing passengers annually to qualify for incentives, with further benefits tied to higher growth thresholds. In contrast, the new model significantly lowers the entry barrier, requiring a minimum of 35.000 passengers per year. This change is expected to make the scheme more accessible, particularly for smaller markets and airlines considering lower-volume routes.
The incentive structure has also been simplified. Previously, benefits were calculated on incremental growth, with a tiered system that included an initial 80% discount on passenger service charges and smaller additional reductions at higher thresholds. The new model retains the 80% discount but applies it to all departing passengers on eligible routes, offering airlines a more predictable and financially attractive framework. In addition, participating carriers are exempt from certain infrastructure charges.
Another key difference lies in the programme’s duration and flexibility. The earlier model ran over a five-year period, whereas the new scheme is limited to four years but introduces mechanisms that reward stronger early performance. Airlines exceeding 100.000 or 150.000 passengers in the initial years can secure continued incentives without needing to meet annual thresholds.
Under the new Growth Incentive Model, Zagreb Airport excludes a defined list of destinations from eligibility. These are considered either sufficiently developed or strategically not targeted under the scheme. Notably, they are primarily routes not served by Ryanair. Within Europe, they include Athens, Amsterdam, Barcelona, Berlin, Brussels, Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Helsinki, Istanbul IST, Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen, Kyiv, Lisbon, London Heathrow, Madrid, Milan Malpensa, Moscow Sheremetyevo, Munich, Oslo, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Prague, Stockholm Arlanda, St. Petersburg, Stuttgart, Vienna, Warsaw and Zurich. Regionally, it includes all domestic destinations, as well as Belgrade, Sarajevo, Skopje and Tirana. Longer routes excluded from the scheme are Doha, Dubai, Seoul Incheon, Tel Aviv and Toronto. In practice, the airport is now targeting secondary or underserved European cities, niche leisure markets and new point-to-point opportunities outside core trunk routes.
Looks like they really are going after Wizz Air.
ReplyDeleteAgree. This is basically an open invitation for Wizz Air or even easyJet to step in. Looks like
DeleteNot sure this will change much in the short term. Ryanair is already deeply entrenched and has the cost advantage anyway.
DeleteI don't get it? Why would this show that they are after Wizz Air? I don't see it.
DeleteDirectly without competition there is maybe 10 routes left, and all of them will directly or indirectly compete with Croatia Airlines. Good days for OU!
DeleteMore benefits for OU with already established routes rule
ReplyDeleteIt protects them from direct competition but it does not really offer them anything. OU certainly won't go after thinner routes. At least I doubt it.
Delete^ OU still has the connecting capital city model. They can launch flights to larger airports, some of which are still not linked to ZAG. Is that scheme still active?
Delete@9.07 that one ends this month, according to this recent article
Deletehttps://www.exyuaviation.com/2026/03/lccs-eye-zagreb-as-ryanair-backed.html
^ thanks
DeleteCroatia Airlines can apply just like anyone else.
DeleteInteresting move. This clearly lowers the barrier for entry and finally gives smaller carriers a chance to test routes without massive upfront risk.
ReplyDeleteFully agree!
DeleteAirlines like Volotea, Norwegian, Corendon, Jet2 could start with one or two routes to test the market and then grow their operation to something much larger.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a wave of 2x weekly leisure routes pop up under this scheme.
DeleteThat would be great considering FR has had a lot of success with leisure routes which were really lacking beforehand.
DeleteThere is precisely zero chance for Volotea or Jet2 to launch new routes.
DeleteI can only maybe see Norwegian or Wizz Air applying
Aaaand just like that FR growth at Zagreb comes to an end
ReplyDeleteFR can very much benefit from this subsidy program too.
DeleteFR hates to compete with LLC if they had an upper hand beforehand
DeleteWrong! In order to expand, FR demand terms only for themselves. They do not want to compete with others with same conditions. They will be leaving within hours, if W6 step in
Delete09:54 can you give me any evidence or examples for your claim because Ryanair competes across Europe
DeleteI like the focus on “thin routes”. That’s exactly where Zagreb has been lacking. Too many obvious trunk routes and not enough niche connectivity.
ReplyDelete'Niche connectivity' could also mean 'hard to make profitable' but i like the use of langauge :)
DeleteObviously yes, what else would it mean?
Delete"Hard to make profitable" is exactly the reason ZAG created this kind of incentive and the reason why airports provide incentives at all
DeleteThis feels like a more balanced and mature strategy compared to the previous scheme, which was almost tailor-made for Ryanair.
ReplyDelete35,000 passengers is a very reasonable threshold. This opens the door for seasonal or 2–3 weekly routes that previously didn’t make sense.
ReplyDeleteMost Ryanair routes started as 2-3 weekly routes
DeleteOk, but why LIS and HEl are excluded? That makes no sense...
ReplyDeleteBecause they expect Croatia Airlines to start both in the next year. Remember that OU applied but failed to get LIS slots for this summer.
DeleteAlso TIV. Maybe OU starts it. Or Air Montenegro.
DeleteAnon 09:08
DeleteYou really think that OU will get slots next year for LIS?
Probably not. They were stupid to let it go in the first place.
DeleteLol
DeleteSmart move, diversification and competition is the best way to increase traffic!
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteGood news!
ReplyDeleteJasmin will be in Buzin drinking coffee looking at an atlas with a magnifying glass looking for opportunities
ReplyDeleteJokes aside, I wonder what OU's take on this will be. They were not happy about the last one.
DeleteMuch more important is how Ryanair will react to this
DeleteCroatia Airlines will make noise, Ryanair will launch routes
DeleteI think Jasmin read articles here and deciding. He is smart and not stubborn. I advice him not to open new routes, due higher losses. Better wait more stabile times. He is one of the best airline CEO in Europe. Keep in mind that.
Delete3 weekly to INI.
DeleteRyan could give hard time to JU's Ljubljana route from INI.
DeleteLol it's not happening. Besides JU gets paid to fly INI-LJU. I doubt it is too successful anyway
DeleteYup, I was joking, but I really believe that 2 weekly INI to SPU can work in summer season with ATR.
DeleteThe airport is clearly targeting secondary cities now.
ReplyDeleteSmart move to reward strong early performance. Airlines like quick returns and this gives them exactly that incentive.
ReplyDeleteThis will bring some competition on routes where Ryanair is currently the only option.
ReplyDeleteOverall, this looks like Zagreb trying to reset its strategy and reduce dependency on Ryanair.
ReplyDeleteDependency on Ryanair? Ryanair is not even the carrier with most capacity in ZAG, it's the second, and there are over 20 other airlines operating to ZAG. How is that dependency?
DeleteRyanair has more than 1/4 of pax in zagreb. It’s important airline for zagreb
DeleteThe growth was very much dependent on Ryanair past years. Not the airport but the growth of the airport
DeleteWhere does these proposals to open the old terminal?
ReplyDelete*where does this leave the proposals
DeleteThis might actually benefit network carriers more than LCCs, especially on thinner European business routes.
ReplyDeletePray tell which network carriers might want to open routes from secondary airports to Zagreb? Business routes? What is a business route in 2026 tbh
DeleteTAP, EL AL, Cyprus Airways.
DeleteTAP and El Al to where?
DeleteLIS and TLV obviously, where do you think?
DeleteBut both are excluded from this scheme
DeleteOh I did not notice that. I never read the story, just go strait to the comments. 😂
DeleteEL AL started flying to ZAG back in 1990
Delete@10:52 perhaps you should then.
DeleteGood move, but timing could be tricky. The market is volatile right now and airlines are cutting rather than expanding.
ReplyDeleteOne mistake in the text. The excluded airport on the list is Tirana, not Tivat.
ReplyDeleteIs this only for European airlines or is open for everyone?
ReplyDeleteEveryone.
DeleteI wish Vinci would offer a similar scheme in BEG.
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteVinci doesn't need to.
DeleteUnited Airlines is coming next year
ReplyDeleteEWR or some other of its hubs?
DeleteI have read the same comment every year for the past 13 years.
DeleteThis model looks much more airline friendly
ReplyDeleteIt’s MUC underserved?
ReplyDeleteThe real question is: will Ryanair respond? They don’t like competition on their routes.
ReplyDeleteBut airlines don't love competing with Ryan too. I don't see many Ryan routes launched by competitors, these conditions leave space to launch, say, Valencia instead of competing at Alicante...
DeleteI hope Baltics, Nordics or smaller Italian cities are coming thanks to this.
ReplyDeleteThat would be great. And hopefully by airBaltic or Norwegian.
DeleteI'm totally surprised about Moscow. Aren't flights to Russia completely banned in Croatia?
ReplyDeleteOf course they are, they even have Kiev on the list.
DeleteProbably copied and pasted from some old document without double checking it before publishing it.
Well it says it's excluded.
DeleteHopefully the war will not last forever. I don't think it's copy paste but open doors for post war reintroduction of russian and introduction of ukrainian flights
DeleteOnce flights to between the EU and Russia begin i do not think Zagreb will very high on the list of any airline and this is not going to occur for many years to come.
DeleteSorry, my mistake. I didn't read the article fully before commenting.
Delete13.22
DeleteYou are aware Aeroflot had daily flights to ZAG before the war?
@14:44 I remember it well! Doesnt mean that Aeroflot or whom ever starts flights into the EU (in the distant future) will have Zagreb anywhere near the top of their list.
DeleteOk, if you say so it must be truth and nothing else but the truth
DeleteIndeed
Delete80% discounts? well no suprise FR is mad at BEG and SKP
ReplyDelete35.000 passengers per year is roughly a year round 2 weekly with A321
ReplyDeleteWell alot of people were saying that FR would fail on most of its routes when it started. I dont think Wizz will launch new routes if it comes to this decision so there is still plenty of room for both. After all FR does not chase transfer pax neither does W6 but could be huge win for ZAG and passengers at the end.
ReplyDeleteSorry, “Wizz will not launch routes that FR already operates…” :))))
Delete