Ljubljana Airport figures hit amid Adria demise


Ljubljana Jože Pučnik Airport has seen its passenger numbers decline 10.1% in September after Adria Airways discontinued most of its operations on the 25th of the month, prior to declaring bankruptcy five days later. Slovenia’s busiest airport welcomed 172.387 travellers through its doors, while aircraft movements stood at 2.976, also down 10%. Overall, during the first three quarters, Ljubljana Airport still improved over last year with 1.450.849 passengers handled, up 1.9%. The airport expects for its figures to decline between 100.000 and 200.000 travellers this year. Over the weekend, General Manager, Zmago Skobir, said, “It's hard to say exatctly how business will perform until the end of the year. However, there will certainly be consequences”.

MonthPAXChange (%)
JAN103.525 3.1
FEB105.470 6.3
MAR133.641 3.0
APR157.992 0.1
MAY170.307 1.8
JUN188.622 6.7
JUL207.292 4.2
AUG211.431 4.5
SEP172.387Decrease 10.1

In the coming weeks, Swiss International Air Lines, Brussels Airlines and Lufthansa will introduce flights from Zurich, Brussels, Frankfurt and Munich to the Slovenian capital. Furthermore, low cost carrier Wizz Air, which was to discontinue services from Charleroi to Ljubljana over the winter months now plans to resume operations on the route on December 19. Mr Skobir noted that ČSA Czech Airlines will likely introduce flights from Prague, while a carrier would be found to cover services from Copenhagen “sooner or later”. However, the General Manager said a replacement for Adria on destinations such as Pristina and Tirana are unlikely to be found, while efforts were being made to link Ljubljana with Skopje “as soon as possible”. Commenting on flights to the Middle East, which Ljubljana Airport has been attempting to secure for years, Mr Skobir said, “I believe we'll see the day when Qatar Airways or Emirates arrive. The key question is whether Slovenia as a market is interesting for long haul or trans-oceanic flight. My response is probably not for a long while yet. Market size is essential”.

Almost all airlines currently serving the Slovenian capital plan to increase their operations to the city this coming winter season. Air Serbia will boost frequencies from last year’s eleven weekly rotations to seventeen, while Air France will almost double its flights, from six to thirteen weekly. LOT Polish Airlines will fly from Warsaw eight times instead of seven times per week, while Aeroflot will strengthen its daily operations from Moscow by deploying the larger Airbus A320 instead of the Sukhoi Superjet 100 aircraft. Finally, Montenegro Airlines will add an extra two rotations this winter season for a total of six flights per week.




Comments

  1. 10% isn't that huge all things considered.

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    Replies
    1. That was the result of 5 days of Adria being gone. Let's see what happens in October.

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    2. If 5 days no JP (in Sept.) already equals a 10% drop of monthly pax, then 30 days no JP in October should be equal to about 60% passenger drop.
      I can hardly imagine that!
      I think the numbers are that large, also because pax were counted twice when they were transferring at LJU?

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    3. Transfer passengers are counted twice at every single airport in the world.

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    4. 60% is too much. Adria actually cancelled almost all flights from 23rd of September, which makes it 8 days without Adria or a bit more than a quarter of the month. This means that the airport loses max 40% of passengers in October, but the actual number will be lower because LX arrives in the middle of the month and LH at the end of it. But these are of course very rough estimations.

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    5. JP had more than 50% of all passengers at lju airport so the noumbers are ok...

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  2. Good to hear CSA will come again :)

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    1. Hardly a good airline but it is good someone will take over the Prague route.

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    2. PRG is a popular destination in the whole ex-Yu and could be working for a lcc (LJU,ZAG,BEG, SKP) but rarely some of them is flying east-east

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    3. But an LCC would mean B737-800 or A320. Would there really be so much demand between Prague and Ljubljana to have a LF of 90%+ on this route?

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    4. Ma nema šanse. Letio sam ja nekoliko puta jer živim u Češkoj. Nisu uspjeli napuniti CRJ.
      Ovisno je doduše također o vremenima letova. Ako bi OK letio tako, da bi bilo zanimljivo za transferne putnike iz/za ICN moglo bi biti nešto više.

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  3. Without JU the drop would be much higher.

    Three new flights are selling ok, I was surprised to see transfers to FCO.

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    Replies
    1. B733 last night to LJU had over 110 passengers in both directions.

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    2. A kako ćeš drukčije? Ako nemaš auto, da odeš do TRS... A vjerojatno ti vremenski dođe isto kao i preko CDG ili WAW a treću varijantu nemaš

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    3. Always undermining JU. for the record JU has increased capacity on flights after LH and LX launch flights to LJU so...

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  4. What a miscalculation on Wizz Air's part.

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    Replies
    1. Well at least they are back in December. But something tells me they won't resume London.

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    2. why? they will keep Brussels

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    3. Because they are giving Brussels Airlines (operating from main airport) a nice head start with very low fares. What was the point of suspending this route in the first place? Even the birds knew Adria would not be around this winter.

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    4. SN will be killed on the route by Wizz.

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    5. SN is selling tickets for 75 euros return. They are competitive.

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    6. Their costs are much higher than Wizz Air though. They might not be able to make money from 75 euro tickets.

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    7. SN is selling tickets for 75€ Return- They won´t be there next winter, unless they find 150pax per flight paying 100€ on average one way.

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    8. Not to mention that their flight times suck so there isn't much to connect to.

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    9. Wizzair to CRL is absolutely no competition to SN to Brussels. Target customers are completely different and there is more demand for BRU than CRL (except summer tourism). Expect summer schedule to bring 2 flights per day BRU-LJU.

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    10. DA. A W6 leti triputa tjedno, tako da je neprimjeran za poslovne putnike.

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  5. Sad to see. Numbers will decline further :(

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  6. they are obv in talks with Wizz to start Skopje

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    Replies
    1. It would yet another subsidized route since the A320 is too big. Also they could fly maximum two times per week so business passengers would still fly via BEG.

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    2. Aha what Anon 09.55, could you present some arguments maybe?

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  7. "I believe we'll see the day when Qatar Airways or Emirates arrive."

    Emirates?? Seriously? With flights to Zagreb in the back yard. Don't think so.

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    Replies
    1. Yes, would be smarter to secure flights to Vienna first.

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    2. Skobir is known as a man whose predictions and statements should be ignored. As long as I can remember he has been working on establishing routes to the Iberian peninsula, Italy, Scandinavia and so on.

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    3. Hahahahahahahahah

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  8. Chisinau airport will have over 1 million more pax than Ljubljana this year.

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    Replies
    1. You might also want to compare the geographical position of Moldova to Slovenia.

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    2. On top of that Moldova has a significant diaspora.

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    3. Slovenia is wealthier and has a larger and wealthier catchment area.

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    4. Yes and that's why many people fly from Venice, Trieste and Zagreb where there is greater choice and many people can drive a short distance by car to numerous European capitals.

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    5. Slowvenia is right. LJU in sharp contrast to Chisinau is much wealthier, has more tourism, more higher yielding and better paying business pax, plus a wealthy Austria just 20 or 30km away. Not far from Chisinau, there are also many other airports (large and small: Odessa, Iasi, Suceava etc), therefore also Moldavians use many other airports in neighbouring countries.

      LJU should have at least 3 mio pax+ per year - already at this point.

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    6. You forget it's much easier for Slovenians to go to VCE, TSF, GRZ, etc. than it is for Moldavians to go to ODS or IAS. Schengen and all that jazz.

      It is true that greater presence of LCCs could increase the number of pax in LJU significantly, but I doubt it will ever reach 3 mio.

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    7. Rumunjska nije u Shengenu a Ukrajina još manje!

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  9. Those new airlines can't come soon enough.

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  10. Interesting what he says about Copenhagen. Who could take over this route. SAS or Norwegian?

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    Replies
    1. SAS? They are not flying to ZAG and BEG, but they will fly to LJU? LOL

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    2. They are not even flying to VIE

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  11. We need more LCCs.

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    Replies
    1. Airport should offer incentives to other airlines which could step in to replace Adria. In my opinion they should strike a deal with either Wizz Air or Ryanair so as to have a base there.

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    2. I do not get why LCC are so weak at LJU. Maybe Ljubljana could have capitalised on the fact that most low costers are avoiding Zagreb.

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    3. LJU airport fees are quite high (including things out of LJU's control like fuel) and the market is relatively small and in close proximity to more affordable airports. So it is not surprising why a lot of foreign carriers are avoiding LJU.

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    4. well JP was in reality a LCC: average income from 1 ticket sold was 115 EUR. For example Ryanair's is 110 EUR I believe. And both really had no service on board. And if we account in that JP had a "business" class, where tickets were more expensive, the horse-wagon class was therefore even more low in the income scale :)

      But on the serious side. Where to would LCC's cover the route at least 3-times weekly with 90% load factor with A319 or A320 high density planes? These are the numbers where LCC's break even usually.

      To add salt to injury, you have quite some studies (just read one from Berlin school of law and economics) that examine if economics of relationships between LCCs and airport revenues. It was concluded that the lowering of fees in order to get LCCs is not fully compensated by the higher ancillary revenue (increased parking fees, rent fees, higher sales of hotel/food/drinks, etc.) from increased passenger numbers.

      So based on the amount of discount that the LCC would request, there is probably a no-go mathematical situation with the airport. And on top of that every other airline that serves the airport would start to extort the aiport. And airport with only LCCs generally cant be profitable (seen already multiple times).

      Remember Ryanair and MBX: they will fly if there are no fees from the airport and the local community additionally has to give them some subsidy.

      So generally airports with established legacy carriers tend not to be very keen on a huge LCC presence.

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    5. Ryanair's average fare in FY19 was 37 EUR, not 110. And even if you think JP was a low cost airline, it was more of a low fare.

      Anybody can make a low fare airline - you just sell cheap tickets until you run out of money. It's the true low cost that is difficult to achieve. Certainly with 50% of staff (as was the case of JP) in admin, you can't have low operating costs.

      Airports with legacy carriers not having LCC presence: FRA, MAD, BCN, LGW,... LCCs not flying to major airport was perhaps true 10 or 15 years ago but definitely isn't anymore.

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    6. We don't need more LCCs - we need "some" LCCs to balance the supply side, and we really need proper connections to the main economic interest areas. The people commenting here about flying from Venice etc are maybe flying 1-2 times per year. These people are a minor contribution to the market. They are only loud on this forum, but not heard by the actual LCC airlines because they know they can't make money with such passengers. A lot of commuters and business people need reliable legacy airlines - so addition of Prague sounds good. Hopefully more connections come with the summer schedule.

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    7. There are no 100seat A/C in LCC fleets. Entering a Slovenian market with A320 (170seats) with daily flights is a commercial suicide. Plus why would Ryanair jeopardize good LF from TRS or TRF?

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    8. It would be very hard for LCCS to fill the planes because JP high load factor on some routes was because of transfer passengers from balkans

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  12. October will be an absolute disaster. Things should improve in November.

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    Replies
    1. Improvement in November? Highly unlikely.

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    2. Everbody knows, that LH, SN, LX will start new flights to LJU on 27th Oct/ 1st Nov.

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  13. Time running out to set up a new national airline with all these foreign companies picking up routes.

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    Replies
    1. Thank goodness. Really don't want to finance another airline that will be "restructuring" in 2 years time.

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    2. I think the majority of slo taxpayers are cheering for as much foreign airlines as soon as possible. Now even the average joes started to notice that every time there is a debate about strategic and/or national interest they have to hold on to their wallets.

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    3. Yeah, it's getting really busy in LJU. So many new destinations, people just can't make up their mind where to fly next :D.

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    4. This project looks over before it started - the law that was supposed to help was rejected by the parliament comission, didn't even go into the main session yet. All the main parties outside government were voting against it. It would need some serious political push to get this over, and since there are much bigger stories for the government deal with, I doubt this will happen with government support.
      And also as Anon 9:51 noted, it is getting increasingly harder to sell "national interest" in Slovenia.

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  14. Such a shame after really good figures up until this point.

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  15. Where is Eurowings??

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    Replies
    1. Trying to fix its financial disaster.

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  16. There are still a number of airlines Ljubljana could try to attract like KLM, Iberia, SAS, Alitalia....

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    Replies
    1. For Fraport it's better to fly us (Slovenians) over Frankfurt where they can sell us some sausages at the airport. Even flying to Rome, you have to fly over some hub.

      I believe that's why they bought LJU. To slowly turn it into a Frankfurt puppet.

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    2. Haha! Loved this, plus SKP seems to be much more imporant than Amsterdam, Madrid, Barcelona, Rome, I should not continue...

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    3. well obv it is

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    4. Why shouldn’t be SKP important for LJU? The market is obviously there since there is a solid O&D demand with the perfect mix of Business, Tourist and VFR traffic from both sides, the key for the success of a route on the long run.

      Wizz will do wonders there if they are going daily and offering a good price which both will generate even more demand for the new route.

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    5. Daily SKP-LJU on the high density A320? LOL

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    6. keep calm INI boy. if Wizz can feel 3 A320 with 5k macedonians on Malta imagine it how much would they need for 40k macedonians in SLO

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    7. KLM is already here - in the form of Transavia. Also increasing frequency. They would switch to mainline KLM only if they would conclude that they would have a lot of transfers for long haul or sell many business tickets. And the likelyhood of this in the short-ish term is small.

      The Iberian peninsula has so far proved to be a bit of a challenge. Not that much demand for south america flights (transfer point MAD), O&D was more in the direction of BCN, and even there only 2 flights per week were sustained, but then dropped. There isn't that much business traffic, but mainly touristy, so Iberia would have to provide really low prices. And focus on what O&D BCN or MAD. Both can't work in such a small market and with ZAG close at hand.

      Italy was a always a disaster. Business connections are huge, but with the northern part of italy, where you are quicker with a car. Italian tourists also drive here. JP has tried it a couple of times, always failed miserably. Maybe some LCC 2-3x per week, but Alitalia is almost a no-go from the get-go. They cover the FCO route from TRS.

      As said by others. The next one I think will be SKP. There is business travellers and O&D. But it would have to be 5x or greater per week in order to not lose passengers to let's say JU and such.

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    8. Anon 10.17 you are making a condescending comment towards INI when it's the one that has flights to LJU while SKP doesn't. That's enough to indicate who has a bigger priority. If the market was that large Wizz would already launch LJU from SKP. So I am not the one who needs to calm down, I am just presenting facts here.

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    9. Flights from LJU to INI just started couple of months ago, with 2 weekly flights
      On the other hand, JP had 2x daily to SKP for many years - to continue to present facts and priorities.

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    10. Yes two daily on a tiny regional jet, the route did so well by the end that they merged it with another regional destination. So in other words it didn't have more than 40 passengers.

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    11. I wouldn't brag with a biweekly flight that's being subsidized at 100 EUR / pax.

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    12. lol. when you talk about something you know nothing about.

      2 CRJ flights were always merged into one 319.

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    13. Nope, not by the end.

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  17. So maybe we can expect growth again in November?

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    Replies
    1. Major loss in Oct - and maybe a bit smaller but still very high loss from Nov...

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  18. a Wizz base is not imppossible now

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    Replies
    1. If LJU management was smart they would try to strike a deal with them ASAP.

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  19. LJU will bounce back.

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    Replies
    1. Unfortunately Ljubljana's numbers won't improve until the end of the year.

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    2. Or for years to come.

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  20. "However, the General Manager said a replacement for Adria on destinations such as Pristina and Tirana are unlikely to be found..."

    This is actually the best possible news for JU. They will make a lot of money on these tranfers.

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    Replies
    1. Especially from Priština :)

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    2. PRN traffic will fly on INI-LJU.

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    3. except there is none according Skobir

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  21. Let's not forget the possibility of Windrose from Kiev this winter :D

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  22. Result of over reliance on one airline.

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  23. I'm surprised Turkish Airlines hasn't done much.

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    Replies
    1. Well I doubt TK carries many people from Slovenia to western Europe where Adria flew to. So little need to react.

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    2. Plus JU stepped in much faster and they took over the market to the Balkans from Slovenia. While TK was sleeping JU stole its lunch.You snooze you lose.

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    3. Why are you laughing Anon 10.37? TK stayed the same while JU boomed.

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    4. He is laughing as he can't accept the fact JU reacted so good and fast.

      He and his friends probably think it is still "too early" to do anything related to the situation in LJU after JP went belly up

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    5. OMG! TK will burst into tears now that JU took over the Slovenian market.Get serious please. The financial figures between JU and TK are not comparable.

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    6. As if LJU wouldn't survive without the JU 737 :D
      What would TK say with their 2 daily A321s?
      Jesus Christ.
      Luckily enough it will not be necessary to fly south and east and then fly back to the north.
      LH, OS, LX and SN are all coming.
      Not to mention OK which flies to SEL and have a decent A330.

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    7. Might want to scrub up on your facts a bit. OK no longer flies to Seoul and neither does it have an A330. And this has been the case for a year now. Experts.

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    8. Yet JU keeps on flying full to LJU despite what you write on here. Your hate towards JU is making you blind to certain facts. ;) Look at Nemjee post, TK numbers are actually going down in LJU.

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    9. The report Nemjee is using is not accurate because he´s using a free version of the software.
      In fact TK are doing so well, they sent A330 to LJU.
      They are currently evaluating a 3rd daily flight to LJU by that time, JU will be out of the game when the LH family arrives.

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    10. Ah yes LH family with its horde of CRJs? :D As if they will be a threat to JU, they did just fine even when JP was around and they will do even better now when they are gone because LH will not fly passengers at a loss like JP did. First sign of this is that OS is not coming to LJU.

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    11. LJU can survive without JU / JP but without JU the passengers could not get to their final destinations when JP ceased all the operations.

      And that was the moment JU steped in with great rescue fares. I am sure many of those rescued passengers were quite happy with "737".

      Mind you, LH, OS, LX still do not fly to LJU and TK did not offer anything to the passengers that lost all the connections due to JP. Not not mention OU - it is comic story.

      So, no matter if you like it or not JU did great job and obviously they intend keeping it so. Nobody flies more often to LJU than JU.

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    12. There has been no TK A330 in Ljubljana for over a month. There will be some in next 2 weeks but it has nothing to do with Adria and has been scheduled since July
      https://www.exyuaviation.com/2019/07/turkish-to-deploy-a330-to-ljubljana.html

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    13. duuhh ... you have basically only 2 transfer airlines that cover the region with transfer options - JU and TK at th emoment (AF is just now upping up freq.). so you kind of have to use them or drive by car.

      wait for 2-3 weeks and not all of passengers will stay with JU and/or TK, cause why fly south to then fly north again if nothing else time-wise. But if pricing will be right they still can retain a chunk of these additional passengers.

      it will depend really on how much LH/LX will charge for FRA/MUC/ZRH with connecting flights and how quickly they will adapt the hours of departure to catch the wave for transfer flight onwards.

      We'll see, it's going to be interesting for sure.

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    14. JU has already upgraded some flights in November to A319/733 which is after LH Group starts flying to LJU.

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    15. If SN fly 85 squid return to Brussels then imagine the rest of LH Group.
      AF will most likely become agressive, what do you think...they will just be passive¿

      So far:

      LH - 3 daily
      LX - DAILY
      SN - 6 weekly
      Total: 5 daily flights and no 737s.

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    16. LH and LX are sending regional jets to LJU. On top of that LX will exclusively rely on transfers since there is almost no point to point traffic. In the end I think LX will fly seasonally to LJU, there is no market for them, at least for an airline with their costs.

      LH is a joke with three daily CRJ with 86 seats.

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    17. kind of don't agree with you, because the facts are against you anon 13:11. the ZRH route was by no means only transfer. Quite a lot traffic - Slovenian and from Kärnten for onwards transfers and also O&D. and what are you blabbering about CRj....what did JP fly these destinations beforehand...boeing 747? jesust christ some of you are really with IQ in the ballpark of room temperature.

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    18. Not sure if 737 klassika or CR9 is better.
      Nothing beats TK and their elegancy....

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    19. Elegancy? Maybe in the air but on the ground they are pure disaster!

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    20. Kako ne leti OK PRG-INC??? Zašto lažeš???? https://www.csa.cz/cz-en/destinations/

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  24. Well at least the residents in Brnik who were bitching and yelling about the noise earlier this year can now sleep soundly.

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    Replies
    1. https://www.exyuaviation.com/2019/05/public-urges-noise-reduction-at.html

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    2. now just wait for the 40 or 60 LJU employees whose contracts were not prolonged, that they will be protesting for the government to establish a state-owned additional airport :D

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  25. Late Christmas this year will surely not help them boost their numbers. Too early to judge the full effect of JPs demise but 10% is not so bad for 10 days of Adria's agony in September given their market share there but then again market is very small and little changes produce huge percentages. October will show the full effect but hopefully numbers will stabilize in November. This time next year no one will think about this shame.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wrong. Traffic figures will be affected for years to come.

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    2. It will take at least 5 years for LJU to see those passenger numbers again. Remember, most of Adria passengers were transfers, so even if LJU manages to find airlines to operate to the main hubsn in Europe, the passengers transferring in LJU have disappeared. And lack of transfer passengers will make it more difficult for the newcomers to operate those routes financially.

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    3. its not true that most were transit. however transit pax counted twice in the statistics

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    4. Actually LJU/JP had approx 300.000 transfer passengers

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  26. So will JU become the busiest airline in LJU in terms of passengers and frequencies?

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    Replies
    1. No in term of passengers.

      Only in term of frequencies

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    2. With so many A319s and B733s sent to LJU and the noon flights selling well as well as full flights from INI, I think they might become number 1 soon.

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    3. Who is number 1 anyway now that Adria is gone?

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    4. Will be interesting to see JU numbers at the end of 2019.

      Q1
      LJU-IST: 21.895
      LJU-BEG: 13.108

      April plus May 2019:

      LJU-IST: 27.808 (-1.532 pax)
      LJU-BEG: 11.178 (+215 pax)

      I suppose JU has more than doubled its capacity to LJU in recent weeks so numbers should considerably grow.

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  27. In my opinion October will perform the worst. At the same time it will be interesting to see if Zagreb benefited in October because of Adria's bankruptcy.

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  28. I am surprised LO is sending E75 to LJU. I thought with JP gone they would be able to fill E95.

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  29. Wonder what CSA will use to LJU. ATR72?

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    Replies
    1. That's the only aircraft that they have that would make sense on this route.

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  30. There is nothing to panic and those red figures are temporary. We saw the same thing with BUD and look where it is now. People even forgot who Malév is.
    Fraport have a good relationship with FR so my guess is that there might be some new destinations next year: BVA, DUB, KBP, HHN, FKB, BCN, MAD and maybe MLA and VIE.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are being over-optimistic. It will be a success if Ljubljana reaches the same number of PAX next year ... growth is almost impossible.

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    2. There is every reason to panic. We'll never see Adria's frequencies to main hubs for years to come (if ever). LJU is not the same as BUD. Budapest alone has almost the same population as whole of Slovenia! People will start missing Adria in a couple of months, mark my words (of course, not the ones traveling twice per year who are usually the loudest when it comes to Adria's demise).

      Delete
    3. "We saw the same thing with BUD and look where it is now."

      Ah okay no big deal. Just have one of the largest LCCs in Europe have their headquarters in your city. That is easy.

      It took Bratislava over a decade to match their 2008 numbers after the collapse of Slovak Airlines, SkyEurope, Air Slovakia and Seagle Air.

      Delete
  31. Everyone is freaking out for no reason. Let the market stabilize and order will be restored. LJU will be fine just like BUD was fine after Malev disappeared.

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    Replies
    1. Budapest has ten times the population of Ljubljana.
      Still don't get the point of considering Slovenia and Ljubljana as any other country in Europe.
      It is not, it's a tiny country with a tiny capital city and small business going on. That's it.

      Delete
  32. I must take my hat off for Air France for making the best out of the situation .
    Also they have the right aircraft for LJU even if it is not mainline .
    Their HOP brand is actually very nice .

    It will be interesting to see if they send their Embraers also to their other new destination in Ex Yu -
    Airbus will definitely have bad loadfactor there in first quartal 2020 .

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    Replies
    1. Actually JU made the best of the situation, AF is second, right behind them.

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    2. Actually it was JU and then YM since they had rescue fares as well. :D

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    3. Mrtvi se zbrajaju na kraju. JU na dugi rok nema šanse, da preuzme puno putnika iz LJU osim za balkanske linije poput SKP i TIA

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    4. Живи били па видели. Многи су тврдили да ЈУ неће опстати на многим тржиштима па ето нас ту где смо данас. ЈУ ће наставити да доминира у Љубљани.

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