Air Serbia sees weaker H1 long haul results


Air Serbia has registered weaker numbers on its sole long haul service between Belgrade and New York during the first half of 2019. According to the latest available data from the United States Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the Serbian carrier welcomed 30.282 travellers during the January – June period, representing a decrease of 4.9%. The airline is unlikely to reach its 2018 annual passenger result on the route, which totalled 79.657, since it temporarily suspended flights between the two cities from September 24 until October 6 as its sole Airbus A330-200 had to undergo mandatory maintenance checks. The airline’s full-year performance will be made public in June of this year.

Air Serbia’s capacity on the Belgrade - New York - Belgrade service decreased during the first half of 2019 in part due to the usage of Etihad Airways’ Airbus A330-200 aircraft between January 12 and February 14, while its own jet of the same type underwent scheduled maintenance checks at Etihad Airways Engineering in Abu Dhabi. Over the same period, Air Serbia’s European network was exposed to a number of frequency cuts, as the carrier consolidated its network in the lead-up to a significant expansion from June onwards. Over the first half of 2019, the airline’s average cabin load factor on the route stood at 78%, representing a noticeable improvement of twelve points.

During the first six months of the year, Air Serbia uplifted 2.289.063 kilograms of freight on the Belgrade - New York service, down 32%. Since launching operations between the two cities on June 23, 2016 until July 1, 2019, Air Serbia handled a total of 228.080 travellers on the route. The airline previously said its JFK service was a “long-term investment”. "The introduction of flights to New York is a long-term investment for Air Serbia. Such routes usually take three to five years to achieve optimal results. What you get from the service to New York is an important air bridge between the United States, Belgrade and other destinations”, the company noted.

MonthPassengers carriedChange (%)Load factor (%)
JAN4.862Decrease 4.478.5
FEB2.599Decrease 2.363.0
MAR3.935Decrease 10.578.7
APR5.282 3.880.0
MAY5.439 4.782.4
JUN8.165Decrease 13.380.4

Data provided by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics of the United States




Comments

  1. Anonymous09:07

    This would be very expensive and loss making project for Air Serbia, if the government didn't subsidise this route.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:53

      The launch of BUD should certainly help to build this route and to fend off competition from LO.

      Delete
  2. Anonymous09:08

    With the increase to Greece from April will be interesting to see how JFK performs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why Greece? Only if the price is right. ATH in summer season has 4 to 5 daily flights to New York, don't need to mension 1 daily to Chicago and 1 daily to Philadelphia. And don't forget great connectivity to New York via FRA, MUC, CDG, FCO, LHR, ZRH.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous16:02

      Why not Greece? JU already does well there, loads are fantastic the whole year and JU has been present on the market for a while now.

      Delete
    3. @ANONYMOUS 16 :02 you are talking about the ATH - BEG - ATH sector,which certainly is successful. I am talking about the ATH-BEG - JFK - BEG - ATH sector. Don't count so much to the Greek passengers for that one. All I am saying is that Greek passengers have more alternatives options for their travel to New York.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous18:13

      Ah yes, the usual 'no one will fly with JU because there are other options out there.'
      What are you basing your argument on? If one is to follow that logic then no one would be flying with JU from IST to Europe since there are so many other alternative. Let me remind you that non-stop flights from Athens are not cheap, not cheap at all. Fact is that ATH has been one of JU's most successful destinations so far which sees a lot of transfer passengers.

      Delete
    5. Calm down @ANONYMOUS 18 :13 and read the first comment that I clearly say that if the price is right Greek passengers will choose Air Serbia flight to New York. OMG everyone is on the verge of fighting here!

      Delete
  3. Anonymous09:09

    Another proof that current management doesn't see long haul as key for Air Serbia. Without additional destinations long haul seems to be on a way out at Air Serbia.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:15

      How exactly not adding YYZ or PEK is bad for JFK? For JFK the best thing is to increase SKP, TIA, ATH, SKG, OTP... something JU is doing right now.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous12:15

      Because that doesn't strengthen long haul ops at all. Remember ASL said a second bird would be added within 2 years of starting JFK. Quite clearly ops will not stay long term with only 1 aircraft as that can never become even close to profitable.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous12:18

      But it will be four years this year since the route was launched and there is no second aircraft in sight.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous13:30

      That was said during Dane Kondic's era when the airline went into deep crisis. Since he left the situation has stabilized and JU is growing more logically now. You first build short haul and only then long-haul. JU did it the other way so now they have some catching up to do.

      Delete
  4. Anonymous09:19

    Less passengers but very high load factor, I would consider the latter to be of greater importance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:23

      They did say that increasing their LF is one of the things they are after. Seems like they successfully achieved that. What makes me happy is that in 2019 they managed to consolidate but to cautiously grow as well.

      Btw last night BEG-KRR departed almost full in economy and 8 people in business class. I heard at the gate 17 transfer passengers ended up in Nish. Ouch.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous11:34

      Gate 17? Where is that?

      Delete
    3. Anonymous11:57

      I think he meant there were 17 transfer passengers from VIE to KRR, it was just awkwardly written.

      Delete
    4. Ah, those comas.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous13:31

      Seems like JU is the biggest winner of OS suspending KRR flights.

      Delete
  5. Anonymous09:21

    80-82% is good LF and I suppose that during the summer months it is even more.

    The problem is February but is is already known that this month is the slowest in aviation not only in Serbia but mostly in all European countries

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yields are also paramount.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous14:20

      For long-haul 78% load factor is very low. It should be 85% at least in winter, in top season 95%, average 90%. Everything beyond that is losings money.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous16:03

      Nonsense, just because a flight might be full doesn't mean an airline is making money. It all depends how much the average ticket costs. Someone can be making money 50% while someone else might be losing with 90%

      Delete
  6. Anonymous09:22

    Ouch that drop in June :/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:25

      LH increase has taken away pax, especially via MUC.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:33

      LH increase started in March so ... you need to come up with a new conspiracy theory.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous09:47

      LH increase takes no ADDITIONAL pax away.

      Even before this increase there were sufficient connections onto JFK flight, if only somebody wanted to fly indirectly with LH. Now it is about connecting on LH to yet another wave in MUC.

      Pls also note that there will always be pax flying indirectly because of the price. Flying indirectly is simply cheaper and this is everywhere in the world, not only in BEG. Therefore this leakage of pax is and will always be part of the airline business. Example: in WAW number of pax flying from WAW INDIRECTLY to NYC according to the airport website is more than 70.000 yearly despite LO having direct flights from WAW (JFK+EWR) of 17 weekly in peak.

      Delete
  7. Anonymous09:23

    Finally the increase of LH, LX AF and other show effect on the long haul ops of JU. LOT to BUD will do even more.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:25

      Maybe before BUD shows any signs of affecting Belgrade LO might want to sort out their fleet issues first. Who wants to fly on an ancient B767 or A340? They extended the leases on Air Belgium aircraft until October 2020. Ouch.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:29

      Well obviously people from the the regio have other priorities other than what aircraft they fly on. The price will be decisive and flying via BUD they will end up on the 787 anyway.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous09:32

      Three B788 and one 789 are currently grounded, are you sure they will end up on the 788? I highly doubt it. LO fleet ops is a disaster and at the moment they are no threat to JU, even on the BEG-WAW sector. There are no more slots/gates at WAW so they are stuck at 11/week. OS and LX are profitting from this situation to consolidate their position in the booming market.

      What's interesting is that the moment BUD lost Morocco flights, BEG got them. It's not like BEG can't strike back.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous09:33

      Anon 9:25.

      Calm down. No need to be irritated. LOT flies with Air Belgium from WAW not from BUD. And Air Belgium fleet is all 11-12 years old, so the same age as Air Serbia A330 (12 years). Have a good day!

      Delete
    5. Anonymous09:38

      Anon 9:32.

      BEG-BUD by LO is not aimed at transfers to JFK. LO transfers pax from BEG to JFK only via WAW (approx. 1 hour transfer time in WAW). Just look at arrival/departure times.

      WAW is not maxed out as to long haul. Only this year they start WAW-IAD and WAW-SFO.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous09:40

      Anon 09.38 you need to tell that to the other Anon who insists that LO's JFK will somehow affect JU to JFK out of BEG.
      As for WAW, yup, it's pretty maxed out especially in the non-Schengen department, there are almost no gates and the expansion of the airport was halted due to political reasons. The current government wants to build a brand new airport outside the city. LO can add flights here and there but at the expense of something else. Look at their Ostrava schedule, it's all over the place.

      Delete
    7. Anonymous09:40

      Anon: 9:38
      So what is it then (exclusively) aimed at?

      Delete
    8. Anonymous09:46

      LO in Budapest will offer connections from Belgrade to Brussels, London, Stuttgart, Warsaw and one way to Krakow (other direction goes via WAW). I don't know if it connects to ICN. By the way, I think BUD-JFK connects only in one direction.

      As for Air Belgium, I had the 'pleasure' of flying on it from ORD to WAW and it's horrible. Seats are cramped and there is no IFE. Never again. That said, LO's 787s are fantastic.

      Delete
    9. Anonymous09:52

      Ok then this will put pressure on JU flights to those destinations. LO has to fill a daily 100 seats to these destinations which is not little.

      Delete
    10. Anonymous09:57

      Why will it only put pressure on JU? EW will fly to STR and W6 flies to FKB. Wizz Air flies to London and this summer they are selling €140 ONE-WAY fares to Luton without luggage.

      Also won't LO cannabilize their BEG-WAW by offering connections via BUD? So in a way LO expansion is bad news for LO. lol

      Delete
    11. Anonymous10:06

      Exactly. It will put pressure on all airlines. In the end I do not see people fly STR-BEG via BUD.

      JU loads on that route is bad anyway. EW is clueless what to do with teir planes. Maybe in the end LO realized that BUD does not make to much sense anyway.

      Delete
    12. Anonymous10:09

      On Airliners there is a discussion about LO and Polish posters on there are saying that LO is getting money from Orban to fly from there. So as long as money is flowing in, LO will be flying out of BUD.

      Delete
    13. Anonymous10:15

      Re anon 9:46.

      You are wrong.

      The main purpose of BEG-BUD by LO is currently to make use of the plane that would otherwise stay on tarmac useless between the morning flights and evening flights, in the hope that it would get some O&D. From the moment LO had to reduce a bit the number of planes shifted to BUD because MAX grounding was extended, and they cancelled the initial schedule for BUD-BEG, this is were it is. They probably also wanted to check on that occasion what is O&D between those city pairs.

      BEG-BUD by LO connects well only onto BUD-LCY and back and BUD-BRU and back (less than one hour connection time each way). I leave WAW aside as there are direct flights from BEG by LO and because of the number of flights BUD-WAW this connection means nothing.

      Anon 9:38.

      PS. By the way there is IFE on AirBelgium (simply look at reviews online), so not really sure whether you have not mixed it with something else.

      Delete
    14. Anonymous11:39

      I didn't mix anything, IFE wasn't working and the crew told me that they haven't loaded it or something like that.

      Delete
    15. Anonymous12:43

      BUD-BEG just for LCY and BRU? I mean those are nor really strong direct routes and BUD in itself is hard to fill at reasonable prices for such a short hop.

      Delete
    16. Anonymous10:51


      This year, LO will acquire B777-200, previously used by Singapore Airlines, in exchange for A340 Air Belgium whose rental agreement ends in October. Unofficially it will be 3x777-200

      Delete
  8. They really need to replace the A330 with the A321XLR as soon as it comes out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:27

      They better cancel that lonh haul adventure and concentrate on other stuff.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:30

      Why cancel it when they are not paying for it? It's something the government insisted on while JU profits from it by filling some seats on their regional flights. It's a win win situation for everyone.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous09:39

      Will the government also pay for the A321XLR?

      Delete
    4. Anonymous12:22

      Can A321XLR make BEG-JFK range-wise, at least without restrictions?

      Delete
    5. Anonymous12:25

      Can A321XLR make BEG-JFK range-wise?

      Delete
    6. Anonymous13:33

      On paper yes, in reality when you add winds, non-direct routings and so on. I read somewhere that BUD-BOS can carely work so BEG can't to JFK.

      Delete
    7. Nah, I read that flights from Toronto to Split would be no problem, JFK and Belgrade is basically the same length so yes the A321XLR should be able to make the route.

      Delete
  9. One of the biggest reasons for the low LF is the failure of JU to coordinate online bookings for anything beyond JFK. You can't book on the JU website connecting flights to ORD, MSP etc... neither will online travel sites. Plus having 2x a week flights to JFK on weird days makes it hard to coordinate bookings to the point that people just get frustrated and book a combination with another carrier. I agree with comments above on the need to add YYZ, PEK (or even ORD). If they have the plane they should use it!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous09:56

      There are some 20 pax flying daily from BEG to ORD. How do you want to fill the plane? All transfer pax looking (that is absolutely normal) for cheapest offer (as for them it is absolutely indifferent where they transfer)? This idea looks good in theory, but - think about it - there must be a solid reason management did not go for another lh venture.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous09:59

      Any source to back that 20 passengers per day number?

      Delete
    3. Anonymous10:49

      Anon 9:39, I dont understand your claim that there is not possible to book connecting US flights from JFK? It is possible, for long time, you have connecting flights with JetBlue...

      Delete
    4. 20 passengers per day to ORD seems a bit low of an estimate. In addition, a direct flight from BEG to ORD would be used by many that don't use ORD as a final destination (e.g. MSP, YWG, YYC, YVR, LAX as well as a bunch of smaller towns that don't fly to Europe). In effect, using both BEG and ORD as separate "Spokes/Hubs" will have a positive effect on LF.

      Last year I found a Jetblue connection with JU (it had a baggage fee) but there was no connection available with Delta, American or any other airline. Also, if someone wanted to go to Canada there was no connection offered with Air Canada or Westjet. This severely reduced the ability to make a booking.

      Delete
  10. Anonymous10:09

    Why did the plane have to do two mechanical checks in one year. Makes no sense.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:13

      They had to upgrade the software since experts in AUH the last time said there was no need, was too soon. This time around maintenance was done in Istanbul.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous10:14

      Does not surprise me. Etihad "know how".

      Delete
    3. Anonymous10:18

      Is there any scheduled heavy maintenance planned this year when the aircraft might be out of service?

      Delete
    4. Anonymous11:45

      Hopefully not if they did it just a few months ago.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous13:49

      Was it the D-check they did last year?

      Delete
  11. Anonymous10:14

    This route was launched three years too early. Should have just been introduced now with the latest expansion.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous10:17

    People are saying how the LF improved but didn't it improve simply as a result of reduced capacity?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous11:27

      Of course, but with that logic you can say that number of passengers also dropped due to reduced capacity, not because JU performed badly. I think the title is misleading.

      Delete
  13. Anonymous10:29

    Competition starting to bite.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:30

      It will get worse this summer with new Swiss and Austrian flights.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous10:45

      Good. They've had a free ride for far too long.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous11:27

      What free ride? There are so many options for North America flights out of BEG.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous11:33

      You are wrong: people that wanted to go indirect already have their options from BEG. Its just more competition between those who offer indirect flights from BEG. The question boils down to whether there are sufficient numbers of people that want to go direct from BEG AND pay for this a decent premium over going to JFK indirectly. These people will go direct irrespective whether there are 5 indirect options or just 4 indiect options, ie the 5th indirect option will not make them change their mind and go indirect, while existing four didn't do this. I wish Ju that there are such clients.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous11:41

      Who exactly had a free ride until now? JU most certainly didn't as competition to North America was solid enough. What we are seeing now is a solid offer becoming even more solid which is good. If anything, those extra flights by LX and OS will hurt TK, AF and AZ more than they will hurt JU. Those who fly with JU do it most likely because they don't want to connect at various airports.

      Delete
  14. Anonymous11:41

    Air Serbia is no loner that cheap to New York as they used to. Other airlines are cheaper from BEG.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous11:47

      *longer

      Delete
    2. Anonymous11:48

      It is normal that the airline offering a nonstop service is more expensive than the one offering a one stop service.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous15:15

      Didn't we have here fun boys saying that Ju is performig so badly that they need to drop down the prices?

      Delete
  15. Anonymous11:46

    The main issue missing here is a codeshare partner in the US.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous11:48

      True. But from what I've heard, Air Serbia has tried to get codeshare partners but American carriers are simply not interested.

      Delete
  16. Anonymous11:47

    They seem to have lost some steam with these long haul flights. No major changes to the route in ages (frequency wise), A330 getting older and it didn't arrive in great shape to JU to begin with, service level has generally dropped, while prices are not cheap.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous11:49

      +1

      Delete
    2. Anonymous11:58

      JFK was literally boosted to 6 weekly this summer.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous11:59

      ^ Not true. It was increased to six weekly in the summer of 2018
      https://www.exyuaviation.com/2017/12/air-serbia-to-boost-new-york-operations.html

      Delete
    4. Anonymous12:09

      I agree that something has got to give. I flew with JU's A330 twice. Once in 2017 and once in 2018. In 2018 my seat back IFE was not working and I couldn't move anywhere as the plane was full. In 2017 we got two full meals in 2018 we got one full meal and a "snack". The entertainment options on offer in 2017 and 2018 were exactly the same (and it was exactly a year from one flight to the other).

      Delete
  17. Anonymous11:49

    Time to get rid of that poorly designed special livery.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous12:23

      Yes please!

      Delete
    2. Anonymous15:16

      Please, please, please!

      Delete
    3. Anonymous15:25

      While we are on design issues, I really think they should redo their poor (and rather cheap) animated A330 safety video.

      What a fantastic opportunity to further promote Serbia. They could get that pretty lady that has been featured in the promo material for years (https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2qcjYKT_pt0/Uxuqd1Z8pKI/AAAAAAAALkw/zmpzPctAlDM/s1600/maja.jpg) to do the safety demo in front of some nice sights across Serbia.

      This safety video from Qantas always takes my breath away
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhbXFHrDmTg

      Delete
  18. Anonymous11:51

    Great to see such a high load factor in relatively quieter months.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Anonymous11:55

    Any info on the profitability of the route?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous12:57

      How on earth can anyone know that except people working at JU.

      Delete
  20. Anonymous11:55

    They need to offer more connecting flights within the US.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Anonymous11:57

    Time to completely rething long haul operations or simply shut them down.

    In my opinion they should lease two newer aircraft, be it A350 or B787 (and yes it is possible, bankrupt South African Airways has leased several A350s recently). Redesign your on board long haul product by introducing premium economy as well and launch a second long haul route.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Anonymous12:24

    Interesting to see so many people claiming JU should close JFK flights. I guess they are still not over the fact JU flies long-haul.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous12:58

      Exactly. People same as people all around the word not getting over the fact that Alitalia still flies and always will.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous13:34

      Alitalia will outlive us all. lol

      Delete
    3. They are flying as long as people of Serbia paying.Soviet economy.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous23:56

      Howson, son, you need to get the knack of how things operate in the region before making harebrained comments. Croatia Airlines is being supported by their taxpayers. Montenegro Airlines even more. Heck, even Wizzair is being supported by taxpayers in Northern Macedonia, Hungary, Bosnia and many other places. Your mind is still stuck in soviet economy (isn't that an oxymoron?) gutter, so you need to get on with the program.

      Delete
  23. Anonymous12:26

    To be honest this long haul route is a political vanity project but we are stuck with it so let's see how it can work at least.

    Despite decreasing passenger numbers, CLF is not actually bad which is a relatively good sign. It could show that JU are just better matching supply and demand and that the suspension of frequencies from time to time is not a bad thing.

    The big expansion in the last summer season is also not fully reflected in the data from H1. It would be interesting to see how H2 went considering the sizeable addition to JUs network. This will be further boosted by expansion this year with several destinations that could be of interest such as maybe KIV (Is there a big Moldovan diaspora in NY?) or other markets that do not have direct flights.

    Since this is basically being operated at the insistence of the government, I don't think focusing on adding destinations such as PEK or YYZ would be a good business decision at the moment. They need to solidify, expand and enhance their SH operation and make it more efficient, streamlined and profitable and only then should more long haul be looked at.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Anonymous12:52

    Would be interesting to compare how other airlines in the region are performing on the New York route.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous13:05

      Here you go:

      June 2019:

      OS:

      VIE-JFK 5.523 pax, 82%
      JFK-VIE 6.002 pax, 89%

      LH:

      FRA-JFK 22.142 pax, 85%
      JFK-FRA 25.034 pax, 96%

      MUC-JFK 7.666, 86%
      JFK-MUC 8.696, 98%

      LO:

      WAW-JFK 9.679, 86%
      JFK-WAW 10.677, 95%

      BUD-JFK 3.470, 81%
      JFK-BUD 3.382, 79%

      Delete
    2. Anonymous14:14

      How's TK's stats to JFK?

      Thank you.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous14:46

      For May 2019 (with TK included):

      OS:

      VIE-JFK 5.497 pax, 79%
      JFK-VIE 5.936 pax, 85%

      LH:

      FRA-JFK 22.942 pax, 84%
      JFK-FRA 24.990 pax, 94%

      MUC-JFK 8.103 pax, 88%
      JFK-MUC 8.829 pax, 96%

      LO:

      WAW-JFK 8.912 pax, 78%
      JFK-WAW 10.190 pax, 89%

      BUD-JFK 2.470 pax, 61%
      JFK-BUD 2.767 pax, 69%

      TK (absolutely top destination for TK in US as no other exceeds one way in May 2019 10k pax)
      IST-JFK pax, 25.057 pax, 87%
      JFK-IST 25.533 pax, 89%

      Delete
    4. Anonymous15:15

      Where is JU?

      Delete
    5. Anonymous15:22

      JU is very close to VIE and way ah of BUD when it comes to direct JFK service.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous15:24

      JU is very close to VIE and way ahead of BUD when it comes to direct JFK service.

      Delete
    7. Anonymous15:48

      Pls remember that these are only pax + LF and not yield stats.

      As to BUD, in my opinion the results are surprisingly good, if you take into consideration that there is no feed whatsover in BUD. It is now almost 100% O&D BUD-JFK-BUD. When (not if, but when) LO provides some feed to BUD, the results will go materially better. Usually you would expect O&D to be approx. 40% of total pax and here you see that pure O&D assures LF much higher than 40%.

      May 2019 total pax:
      VIE-JFK-VIE 11.433 pax
      BEG-JFK-BEG 5.439 pax
      BUD-JFK-BUD 5.235 pax

      June 2019 total pax:
      VIE-JFK-VIE 11.525 pax
      BEG-JFK-BEG 8.165 pax
      BUD-JFK-BUD 6.852 pax

      Have a good day!

      Anon 13:05+14:46

      Delete
    8. Anonymous16:04

      Not entirely true.

      VIE has the same pax structure as BEG yet it's only slightly ahead in June.

      Given that VIE handles twice more pax than BUD this seems fairly accurate and won't change much due to LO.

      Delete
    9. Anonymous16:04

      All in all BEG is doing very fine.

      Delete
    10. Anonymous16:25

      To anon 16:04.

      Nobody here knows what is the pax structure in VIE or in BEG, so what you do is pure speculation and there is nothing to base these speculations upon. The only thing we know is that in BUD its almost all O&D, because currently LO doesn't provide feed there (or on the US side for that matter), so no transfers there (except maybe some self-transfers).

      Maybe pax structure in BEG is 70% O&D and 30% transfers, maybe 80% transfers and 20% O&D. The same about VIE. Obviousely the latter would mean permanent loss making on the route.

      So what I said stands: LO is not stupid as there seems to be good O&D in BUD-JFK. They just need some standard (maybe even substandard) feed to make it work, increasing both LF and yield. Why they don't do it, I don't know. Maybe they are paid by Hungary in a structure where they have no incentive to do it.

      Anon 13:05+14:46

      Delete
    11. Anonymous16:26

      Explanation: I meant pax structure in VIE on JFK-VIE-JFK and in BEG on JFK-BEG-JFK route.

      Delete
    12. Anonymous16:52

      Building a hub from scratch costs. Let's see how long this Hungarian adventure lasts.

      Delete
    13. Anonymous20:24

      This comparison is so stupid. For example OS flies to both JFK and EWR. Same as others dividing the pax to NY and transfers onwards.

      Delete
    14. Anonymous20:39

      All fly to EWR and JFK (OS from VIE, LH from MUC and FRA, LO from WAW, TK from IST). All is mix of transfers and O&D. They also fly to other destinations in US and what? The discussion was about JFK, because this is were JU flies.

      Delete
    15. Anonymous10:09

      Then that is even worse. The anon above is comparing apples and oranges. If only one airline out of that excerpt of the statistics - if we pretend the numbers are correct as there is no source provided - flies to only 1 NYC airport whereas all others fly to two, then only for JU the O&D pax are not halved. Therefore JU numbers (JFK) will include all NYC O&D and for ex. for OS only 50% of course lowering their isolated JFK numbers statistically speaking - or JU numbers appear boosted to the extent of 50% of their NYC O%D.

      Apart from that, of course what counts if looking at success of a route are revenues and not LF or absolute number of pax, and none of us has any of these maeningful values, unfortunately.

      Delete
  25. Anonymous12:57

    Really interesting to see this data. Thank you :)

    ReplyDelete
  26. AirCEO13:54

    Everything points to management trying to walk away from long haul next year using poor numbers as an excuse. Mark my words.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous15:25

      Then what about LO in BUD? Seen their numbers?

      Delete
    2. Anonymous16:53

      Doubt it, JU is just consolidating their performance during the slow months.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous17:13

      JFK has been "consolidated" to 2-3 flights per week since 2017. Winter consolidation of that route has been dead in the water fourth winter in a row.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous18:15

      Well it has consolidate to that with the current schedule in H1. However if you check some past news then you will see that JU will be boosting its regional network in H1 2020 meaning there will be more room for JFK expansion as there will be more feed. ;)

      Delete
    5. AirCEO22:38

      I was around during H1 2014 when Air Serbia claimed their goal was to go double daily to regional destinations. Winter of 2013/2014 was a time when JU flew to some destinations with the same or even more frequency than today, and they didn't even have that "hungry" 2pw JFK route to feed:

      W2013/2014 W2019/2020
      ATH 14 7/10
      SKG 7 5/6
      SVO 14 7
      BNX 7 3
      TIV 11 7
      SJJ 7 7

      On the other hand some destinations have since blossomed, like LJU.

      Overall, announced boost in regional network doesn't sound like a plausible cause for JFK expansion. There are no news releases, announcements or any other clear sign from the current JU management on their commitment to keeping long haul, let alone order new planes and expand it.

      Delete
  27. Anonymous14:21

    JU should cancel this route after 2020 elections.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous15:25

      Cancelling JFK would have enormous impact on the regional network.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous16:17

      +100 Anon 1421.

      If a route is not making money and flies empty, why sustain it?
      After all DY for example constantly updates its long-haul market and quickly cuts loss-making routes.
      Either deploy YU-ARA on winter, exotic charters and in busy routes such as ZRH, SVO and SKP or return to EY, although it might be too old for them as a model.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous16:54

      JU is not empty though

      Delete
    4. Anonymous17:50

      You can have 100% LF and still be loss-making.

      No way a single long-haul route with 1 aircraft in fleet (of the type) can be profitable with 77% average LF, unless tickets are sold for gold.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous18:16

      Why not? JU is not dumping prices for transfer passengers. Also they have a lot and I mean a lot of cargo which boost revenue. JU C class is also full.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous20:35

      Northern American long-haul is expensive and you need years if not decades to make money.
      The BEG-JFK route is less than 5 years old and still needs more time to mature enough.
      Even if the LF is high, they can still be selling the prices real cheap.
      You have to pay for the slots, for the stay, for the pilots and cabin crew and given the situation of the dinar, it is not really favourable compared to the USD.
      Many factors speak for themselves.

      Delete
    7. Anonymous11:31

      Re anon 18:16:

      Cargo:

      For June 2019:

      JU:

      cargo BEG-JFK-BEG 236.296 lbs total; 5.907 lbs per operation

      OS:

      cargo VIE-JFK-VIE 361.643 lbs total; 6.027 lbs per operation

      LH (LH operates on these routes not only passenger aircraft, but also freighters, so a totally different story in terms of lbc per operation):

      cargo FRA-JFK-FRA 6.577.329 lbs; 42.434 lbc per operation

      cargo MUC-JFK-MUC 1.193.313 lbs; 19.888 lbs per operation

      LO:

      cargo WAW-JFK-WAW 1.032.633 lbc total; 12.293 lbs per operation

      cargo BUD-JFK-BUD 292.174 lbc total; 8.593 lbs per operation

      Delete
  28. Anonymous20:09

    Whenever I am buying ticket to SJJ I do not see JU as an option. In the beginning they were available through major web sites, now they are nowhere to be found.

    ReplyDelete

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