Three airports in the region are currently on course to register a reduction in both flights and seat capacity during the upcoming summer season compared to last year. Although airlines continue to fine-tune their schedules for the 2026 summer timetable, which runs from March 29 to October 24, current filings indicate that Banja Luka, Mostar and Zadar are all trending below 2025 levels. While additional frequencies or last-minute route additions in the coming weeks could still alter the outlook, a significant reversal of the present trend appears increasingly unlikely, particularly in the case of Banja Luka and Mostaar. At the same time, several of the region’s larger airports are poised for only marginal expansion. Sarajevo, Dubrovnik and Split are currently scheduled to see modest growth, with a slight increase in both flight frequencies and overall seat capacity planned for the summer months.
Banja Luka Airport is set to see a downturn in operations this summer season, with the number of scheduled flights declining by 18.7% compared to last year. Overall seat capacity is also down by 16.3%. The contraction is wholly driven by adjustments made by Ryanair. The low cost carrier will reduce its overall flight and seat offering to Banja Luka by more than 30%. While it will continue to serve all existing destinations, frequencies are being halved on routes to Stockholm and Baden Baden, alongside further reductions to Vienna and Memmingen.
Mostar Airport is also facing a contraction this summer season, with the number of scheduled flights down 10.6% compared to last year. Capacity is declining at a sharper rate, falling 17.8% year-on-year. The reduction is largely attributable to Sky Alps, which has trimmed its operations by 22% for the upcoming summer. Unlike in 2025, the regional carrier has not scheduled services from Mostar to Naples and Munich. In addition, Sky Alps will standardise its operations with the 76-seat Dash 8 aircraft across all Mostar routes this summer. This marks a shift from last year, when the airline deployed a mix of 118-seat Embraer E195 jets and Dash 8 turboprops, resulting in higher overall capacity.
Zadar is currently scheduled to see a modest 2.4% decline in flight numbers this summer season, translating into a 0.9% reduction in overall seat capacity. However, these figures remain fluid and could shift in the coming weeks as airlines, including the airport’s dominant carrier Ryanair, continue to finalise their schedules. Although Ryanair accounts for a commanding 84.8% of Zadar Airport’s total summer capacity, it is not the primary driver behind the downturn. Instead, the decline is largely the result of easyJet discontinuing several routes, leading to a reduction in both frequencies and overall capacity. However, Ryanair is expected to influence the final end-of-season figures, having scheduled fewer flights in September and October compared to last year. Additional downward pressure stems from Eurowings’ reduced programme, as well as Trade Air’s inability to schedule domestic services for the upcoming summer due to delays in the Public Service Obligation (PSO) state tender process.
Banja Luka Airport's problem is also lack of charter flights this year compared to last. Not looking like a good summer for them.
ReplyDeleteWhich charters did they have last year?
DeleteAir Cairo and Nile Air charters to Hurghada. Not operating in summer 2026.
DeleteThank you. Interestingly, seems Tuzla gets those flights this year.
DeleteYes
DeleteHurghada is too hot during summer.
DeleteIt can be hot but that's when most people travel to Hurghada from across Europe. In any case BNX isn't getting these charters in winter either.
DeleteBanja Luka will have Air Cairo this summer.We can see Tivat and one new more destination this summer
Delete"Although Ryanair accounts for a commanding 84.8% of Zadar Airport’s total summer capacity"
ReplyDeletewow
They have a 70/80% share at Stansted too.
DeleteSJJ will see modest growth which means reaches its maximum, nothing more than this to expect in future🙃
ReplyDeleteIt's growth last year was almost entirely generated by Ryanair. Since there are no new Ryanair routes so far the growth will be more modest. But there are rumours of new routes and even a base from autumn. If that happens, figures will explode.
Deletelol why "nothing more than this to expect in future", whatever thats supposed to mean? I am not sure it will see modest growth, Transavia is launching Paris, Eurowings Berlin, and I think Ankara and few more routes plus frequency increases, so there will still be growth for sure, sorry :)
DeleteIt is currently projected to jump 7-10% plus the new routes that will surely be added in the following weeks on top of Bodrum, Ankara, Paris, Berlin and others already confirmed. RYR is also rumored to expand in the winter schedule. Hence it is very likely Sarajevo grows by 12-15%. For an airport with no permanent base (yet) like Skopje or Priština have it's pretty good to have ~2.5M passengers. The main problem is that it has reached its terminal capacity already and summers will be cramped.
DeleteGrowth in SJJ will be no where near 12-15%. It will be around 5%.
DeleteSarajevo Airport's current capacity growth for the summer is at 2%. However, airlines may still schedule new flights. In the case of Sarajevo, low cost Saudi carrier Flyadeal still hasn't scheduled its summer operations to Sarajevo. It usually does so very late.
DeleteHowever not only the terminal building capacity is reached, the projected overall capacity is as well reached to its maximum, so we cannot expect any strong growth in future...
DeleteHow come OU is able to continue flying domestic flights even without the PSO tender while Trade Air can't?
ReplyDeleteAnyone is able to fly any route they want. Why would Croatia Airlines not be "allowed"??
DeleteCroatia Airlines keeps flying those routes and is then paid retroactively because of systematic corruption. They know they will get the contract no matter what. Trade Air does not.
DeleteIn most EU countries this would be resolved months in advance.
DeleteThis is avoidable.
DeleteHow long was Trade Air unable to operate domestic flights last time the tender was delayed?
Delete^ 5 months. They missed the entire summer of 2022. The government really screwed them over.
DeleteCrazy stuff!
DeleteWith the 'expert' team in place at BNX, I'm really not surprised.
ReplyDelete+1
DeleteDon't worry, Banja Luka Airport is getting an ice cream machine this summer.
Deletelol
DeleteStrucnjak says that he will provide new routes for BNX.
DeletePoor BNX... But they should have known better
DeleteWell, they surely deserved it as long as they trust that he will improve their business.
DeleteAt least not too many airports
ReplyDeleteYes, it's a good sign. Aviation is generally slowing across Europe. Before someone attacks me, I didn't say it's going into negative territory but growth is slowing down to low numbers.
DeleteIn Mostar all the flights are subsidised, so not great.
ReplyDeleteAnd 10-15 years ago, all flights were charters, none were paid for and the airport had more passengers.
Deletenormalization after aggressive post-pandemic expansion. Growth curves don’t go up forever.
ReplyDeleteExactly
Delete@ 09:22
Delete+1
Unfortunate
ReplyDeleteRyanair adjusts constantly. A 30% cut in February filings doesn’t mean the season will end that way.
ReplyDeleteOr maybe it does. Ryanair doesn’t cut capacity by that margin unless performance was below expectations.
DeleteFebruary performance is not saying anything about summer or a year, it's a dead month for almost all Euro airlines. It does tell FR expected it to be better but I think everyone calculates with lowest LFs and negative profits mid January-March.
DeleteArticle is about summer, not February.
DeleteSky Alps switching to Dash 8s could improve load factors dramatically.
ReplyDeleteHope so. But they also need better marketing to promote these routes. A lot of people don't even know about them.
DeleteMostar losing Munich is unfortunate.
ReplyDeleteSkyAlps was never the right airline for the route.
DeleteWhich airline would you suggest? (honestly asking not trolling)
DeleteZadar remains heavily exposed with 84% of capacity from one airline.
ReplyDeleteApparently JU will upgage to E190s this summer!
DeleteThat's cool. Would be nice to see JU's performance on regional airports year-on-year especially in Croatia. I think they have nice presence, could add more winter flights to SPU, DBV and maybe some bigger birds on summer flights here and there...
DeleteSPU will be 3 pw next winter which is an increase from the 2 pw this winter. DBV is likely the next Croatian destination to have year round flights. Both DBV and SPU are long overdue for double daily rotations.
DeleteWhat are you talking about? JU has always flown to Mostar with Bulgaria Air's E190s. So there is no upgrade this summer.
DeleteGood to hear but Mostar is not what we were talking here about which is obvious from the first word of the first comment.
DeleteThe difference between flights (-2.4%) and seats (-0.9%) in Zadar suggests larger aircraft somewhere?
ReplyDeleteI think Ryanair is deploying more out of base aircraft with actual Ryanair equipment, which have more seats than the Lauda Air A320s based in Zadar.
DeleteAirports need to rethink incentive strategies.
ReplyDeleteAirports in ex-Yu have become waay overreliant on incentives to be honest.
DeleteNot incentives (normal at every airport) but direct subsidies. And it is often done very untransparent.
DeleteEurowings still flying to Mostar this summer right?
ReplyDeleteYes
DeleteBNX is heavily mismanaged for quite some time, so really no surprise there, plus Tuzla base could have some impact. Adriatic is interesting, modest growth/decrease on major airports this year, while Montenegro gets new base and Albania keeps adding figures in mass, will be interesting to watch. DBV made mistake with Ryan base, it's utter nonsense and now you have all area Zadar-Dubrovnik competing for the same tourist. Maybe that's good, but it's definitelly weird.
ReplyDelete+100 couldn't agree more.
DeleteAirlines are reallocating capacity toward larger, more resilient markets across Europe.
ReplyDeleteIs Albania really that resilient?
DeleteAt the moment yes
DeleteTIA is on fire!
DeleteFirst W6 and FR started to fight for it and then the rest of European carriers launched direct flights there.
Would be cool to see which ones will grow the most too.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure admin will post them in time.
DeleteWizz bases, new and old.
DeleteNo brainers are Podgorica and Tuzla.
Deletesplit also has many cancelled destinations, and weekly flights,
ReplyDeleteand very few new flights...
how is it that the reduction is not felt?
Maybe airlines fly more frequencies or bigger metal. OU for sure...
DeleteIt says in the article that it will have marginal growth. Meaning small increase.
DeleteI'm not sure that with so many cancelled destinations and a negligible number of new weekly flights, it can bring a plus in the total number of seats offered...
Deletemany lccs have cancelled several weekly flights....
Yes but it adds up to net zero or slightly above. Hey, there are new US flights 3x a week. Also new OU route to nantes and bigger aircraft on some routes, new Vueling route to Bilbao...
DeleteSplit Airport currently has a 0.2% increase in capacity, although it has a 2.8% decrease in the number of planned flights.
DeleteThat's very slim growth for SPU. Let's see how things go. Wishing them luck though.
DeleteAnd increase in capacity comes from OU (A220 instead of Dash)?
DeleteThe biggest increases come from Croatia Airlines, Wizz Air, SAS, the new United service, Transavia France, Air Serbia and KLM.
DeleteThank you for all the data admin
DeleteActually it's pretty encouraging that only 3 airports are down on last year and Zadar will probably flip to growth. which leaves just two.
ReplyDeleteCapacity and flights is one thing. Actual passenger numbers are another. Let's see how things develop.
DeleteBanja Luka Airport is an absolute mess. Not just decrease in traffic but also its financial situation is dire. That's what happens when you appoint unprofessional politically loyal management who have no clue in running an airport and have no relation to aviation. The airport's expert advisor who is getting paid god knows how much is also a whole other story.
ReplyDeleteTrue though previous managements were exactly the same.
DeleteWe would be lucky if only mismanagement was the problem. The infrastructure is collapsing, the runway could be closed if reconstruction does not take place soon, the airport "building" still looks more like a small town bus station, and the parking system, though improved in comparison to the previous period, still causes headache to visitors. The problem is that the government is not willing to increase investments, and Banja Luka City administration does not even notice the airport, not to mention to support it financially ....
DeleteBanja Luka Airport made a horrible mistake making contacts with self-proclaimed zamaAnalyst. It's their own fault and responsibility.
DeleteCan someone explain why suddenly Dubrovnik, Split and Zadar have such small growth or no growth at all for summer? I'm genuinely interested what happened. They did relatively well last year.
ReplyDeleteI think you can’t have huge growth each year. And there are other markets which could be more successful in attracting the flights from key markets for Cro tourism, Albania for sure and could be Podgorica if we are talking about our region. And then you have more and more people who avoid traditional summer vacations due to heat and crowds, which should bring some extra tourists to these airports out of peak months… The key for all Med destinations will become spring and fall. South of Spain is already year long destination, south of Italy is becoming as we speak…
Delete