Air Serbia’s CEO, Jiri Marek, previously indicated the airline would maintain a weekly frequency on its Chicago service over winter. Speaking to EX-YU Aviation News earlier this summer, Mr Marek noted, “It was a good decision that we went to one weekly. Over the winter, we managed to increase our load factor to over 80% on the Chicago route, which is good because we channelled the demand during that one day of the week. If we hadn’t reduced it, the alternative was to have it seasonal. We trialled a one weekly service the previous winter, which was a very good decision. It is clear we will keep the route year-round and during the next winter it will also most likely be once per week”.
Based on data provided to EX-YU Aviation News by the Chicago Department of Aviation, the Serbian flag carrier handled 43.324 passengers on its Chicago service in 2024, which marked its first full calendar year of operations on the route. This total included 22.477 travellers departing from Belgrade and 20.847 originating from the Windy City.
The carrier still has three weekly flights scheduled between Belgrade and New York over the entire upcoming winter, representing one additional weekly rotation compared to last winter, when this frequency was maintained only during the holiday period from mid-December to mid-January. However, further changes remain possible.
One flight per week for a major city like Chicago? That’s hardly competitive.
ReplyDeleteJU cannot withstand losses in Q1 like all large companies, flying half empty planes just to keep routes running
DeleteNext surprise is probably gonna be cutting routes in February and March, like HAM, HAJ, GOT, LYS…
Delete@09:16
Delete+1
They do this every year. So I have stopped booking these type of destinations months in advance with JU cause I will be scrabbling for alternatives too close to the time I need to travel.
Competing with whom like people can't realise there Air Serbia is the only airline from the Balkans with flights to Chicago and it's very hard for an airline from a country with low amounts of tourists to eaven maintain winter flights so if 1 weekly is profitable for them it's a success
DeleteTrue dat.
DeleteLow amount of tourists is a fact, but JU seems to be failing to become a real player offering connections from the balkans on the long haut routes all year round.
DeleteThey are not getting business travelers or cargo flows with such reduced frequencies.
@09:32
DeleteThat is exactly their problem. They need to attract a lot more pax than they do from the rest of the Balkans, Greece, Turkey and rebuild their network to the Middle East.
If they could offer connections from TLV, BEY, CAI both ORD and JFK routes would be doing much much better.
I flew with LOT many times from ORD and it seems to be bad for them as well . Their flights are half empty . Last Feb 14 on my flight 97 empty seats. I believe JU is smart to keep it 1 per week.
DeleteAnonymous09:35 Yes because flying to TLV and BEY nowadays is completely risk free and cant bring sudden cancelations or haults...
DeleteAirSerbia will not become a major player anytime soon, but sure is a regional power in terms of passanger numbers and connections, its growing, it needs time so 1 weekly to ORD is more than we had 10 years ago.
Dozens of airlines fly daily to both TLV and BEY.
DeleteTheir insurance providers deem it to be safe now. But you think that somehow only JU is in some sort of danger. Sounds strange to me.
Because other airlines have 50+ sized fleets so if a plane gets stuck in Beirut their whole network would not collapse. Not to mention and come from much bigger markets.
DeleteNo aircraft is getting stuck in Beirut. They all relocate to LCA. MEA too. Same situation with TLV.
DeleteAnonymous12:28 Now they are not getting stuck but you never know if they will. You do not know how reactive aggressors in war can be so the airlines need to be careful.
DeleteThere are wars in Lebanon for 50 years now. They still transfer the aircraft to Cyprus every single time. Same thing with TLV.
DeleteBut if you are always looking for excuses why one airline knows better than dozens of others you can always claim that an Alien invasion in Lebanon might occur.
So when bombs are falling they will just fly to Cyprus. Right.
DeleteThat's exactly what ALL airlines have been doing for 50 years. And it worked!
DeleteAnonymous15:51
DeleteTrue, major airlines that can afford the risk, not a mid sized regional airline. Its common sence not to risk to disrupt your entire network over 2 cities
Both BEY and TLV have airlines flying there a lot smaller than JU.
DeleteNo disruption, let alone major would happen to an airline the size of JU if one A320 or one E-jet is stuck for a few days there. Which won't happen anyway as it hasn't happen to the other airlines flying to these two countries.
Once weekly service is inconvenient for most travellers
ReplyDeleteSure. That’s why the load factor is over 80%.
DeleteYou can have a LF of 100% and be loosing money...
DeleteOn long haul even with a LF of 60% you could be making money if you have premium fare passengers and your cargo holds are full of perishable products.
The load factor wouldn't be at 80 if they had 2 or 3 weekly. Having a high load factor does not mean having connections, it only means having p2p traffic
DeleteNo airline with a 100% load factor to Chicago in the winter is losing money and every airline with 60% is so stop talking nonsense
DeleteThe load factor is over 80% beacuse they initially sell two weekly flights to cancel the one then and surprise - offer the remaining to the affected pax. Happend to me, they would not allow a reebooking onto another airline on the same day that the original flight should have taken place.
DeleteMakes sense to keep it once a week in winter if it boosts load factors. Better than cutting it completely.
ReplyDeleteChanneling demand is one thing, but this looks more like cutting costs than growing the market.
DeleteThey need to do a whole lot better job in getting transfers from the region, Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Cyprus, Georgia, Albania flying to the US with us.
DeleteSame as from Serbia, very low levels of people travel from those regions to Chicago or US in winter. You will see that Athens, which has multiple US destinations in summer, has only flights to New York in winter. There is a reson for that.
DeleteThe reason is that the American carriers shift their aircraft to Latin America during winter and the travelers to and from the countries mentioned above travel via IST, MUC, FRA, ZRH, VIE, AMS etc.
DeleteAha so it's not demand it's just that American airlines preffer Latin American markets in winter. There are millions of dollars to be made to fly to Athens in winter but they just preffer not to.
DeleteYou should inform yourself about how late widebody deliveries are from both Airbus and Boeing.
DeleteUS carriers for ever flew half the year to the Mediterranean destinations and the other half to Latin America. During the last few years the time spent flying to the Med destinations has increased and the time to LM has decreased.
PLUS the US3 hate flying less than daily to a destination and pay for crews staying in a hotel more than the absolute legal minimum.
So you are saying the demand has always been massive, they just don't want to fly 5 weekly but daily in winter so they don't pay crew hotels.
DeleteThat is their modus operandi! They avoid like the plague flying anywhere in Europe less than daily. If a route can not be flown daily they just do not bother.
DeleteI'm glad they are committed to keeping the route year round. It takes time for a new long haul to mature.
ReplyDeleteFor JU it seems to take much much longer that other airlines.
DeleteORD needs a partner at the US side offering connections. Jet Blue is non existent in the Chicago market. Relying just to O&D in winter is nowhere near enough. And also they should try to move more cargo, revenues from this really helps during the slow months of the year.
Just my2cents
Which other airline flies to Chicago from a comparable market to Serbia for you to say "seems to take much much longer that other airlines"?
DeleteMaybe there is a reason small airlines from small markets do not fly to ORD, especially during winter. And without a code sharing partner on the other end of the route.
DeleteThink about it.
@Anonymous 09:53
DeleteThis is precisely what is happening - they need a major US partner to make this route work. AA and UA each have enormous hubs at ORD, and AA would be the most natural partner for JU, but somehow every time they tried they failed to get a codeshare agreement. Interlines are much, much less convenient (I know having flown on JU interlines TATL several times).
^ AA would be tremendously helpful for JU in MIA too!
DeleteThey talk about high load factors, but that’s easy when you only have one flight. It doesn’t mean demand is strong overall.
ReplyDeleteIt is not easy, actually. But it is loss-making anyway.
DeleteBased on what can you conclude that it's loss making with 1 weekly flight?
Delete^ Dude lets be serious, no airline route on the planet is profitable with just a one weekly frequency.
DeleteWith 80% LF. On his academy, that’s loss making route. Only those below 63% is profitable
DeleteYou don`t get basics of economy if you ask why a one-week service cannot bring profits, sorry.
DeleteWhy not? Each route has fixed costs. If it can be coveered by the one flight on which they can keep laods and fares high, what difference does it make if you have another 7 flights per week flying empy?
DeleteThe airline kept saying the Tianjin route was profitable until the day they discontinued it.
DeleteWell, you don`t cover the fixed costs with a one weekly flight given that there are seven days in a week, otherwise that would not be a competitive market. And it is highly competitive.
DeleteAnd with a large plane resting for 24 hours in Chicago... yeah, it is profitable.
And by the way, noone from the airline is claiming it is, just some overly enthusiastic fans here.
They didn't say anything about profitability on either Tianjin or Chicago. They said Tianjin had passengers. Making things up to suit your argument is traditional for many wannabe CEOs here.
Delete@9.30 it is always good to have you to tell us it is not profitable. You must feel excited this morning.
DeleteAnd it shows now that each route is unprofitable?
DeleteSure.
Folks, you are refering to ad hominem, and thus presenting your... load factor here. Hardly there are many airlines in the world whose all routes are profitable, if any, are zou aware of that? Please don`t do start any business if you don`t, otherwise bigger players will kick you out of the market in no time.
DeleteYou are just being ridiculous claiming that O`Hare flights make money for Air Serbia, while it is evident they don`t for the time being at least, and there`s been no voice from the company that it does. Chill out, it`s hot outdside.
Literally the whole company is on the verge of profitability during winter.
DeleteIf operations were profitable enough they could added the second flight and fly it half empty on important lang haul route as ORD.
That’s what made JFK work in the end, always keeping the two or three weekly service despite the financial loss.
9:51
DeleteBeing ridiculous here is your fashion model. You are delighted to hear about frequency cuts, so you are falling to your dreamworld and bubbling nonsenseness. Having 80% LF with cargo is surely profitable. If it wouldn’t, it would turn seasonal. Sorry for ruining your day, that started delightfully
Nobody wants to transit via BEG to ORD with one weekly flight
ReplyDeleteO&D only.
DeleteWhy not transit if the day works for you?
DeleteI mean mostly.
DeleteIt‘s been more than two years since the resumption of the route but they‘re still struggling, summer freqs staying on three weekly and not to mention winter struggle.
ReplyDeleteUnbelievable that with such large network you aren’t able to sustain two weekly flights at least. And then we hear Marek saying MIA will be year-round, but I guarantee the same issue will be with that route as well.
At this point, it’s better to shift their focus to China because that market is way less seasonal.
+1
DeleteYou guarantee? What with?
DeleteWith indirect passenger numbers registered between BEG and MIA being much smaller than indirect BEG-ORD traffic used to be.
DeleteThe only data you have is that in 2024 Miami was the busiest unserved rotue in the US from Belgrade while in 2019 it was fourth.
DeleteMIA can get a lot of connections from Russia and northern and eastern Europe.
DeleteHopefully they'll do a better job at getting them compared with the ORD route.
As mentioned MIA would do fantastic if American Airlines and JU got to a code share agreement. MIA is by far the biggest hub for central and south America traffic and AA could provide JU with tons of connections south of Florida!
Delete@9:34 With his zama aero diploma
DeleteSo does the flight have a 2nd crew team on board to fly the return leg or they stay in Chicago for a week?
ReplyDeleteHow does that work, does anybody know?
It would be interesting to know but it seems very expensive either way.
Delete"Air Serbia has revised its planned schedule for the Belgrade - Chicago service, opting to operate a single weekly flight, on Fridays from Belgrade and Satursdays from Chicago"
DeleteThe aircraft stays in Chicago for 24 houts and comes back with the same crew.
It layovers 12 hours at ORD and come back with a same crew
DeletePlane stays in ORD for 24 hrs and same crew that brought the plane returns it. They do the same in winter in Shanghai too I believe.
Delete@9.18
DeleteIt is not 12 hours. ORD rotation is over 10 hours. Crew can't be back on the plane in 12 hours.
Plane arrives from Belgrade in Chicago at 14.35 on Friday
It departs Chicago at 17.30 on Saturday.
Lets hope ORD doesn't charge them too much in parking fees.
DeleteSeems it's a problem for some that they keep flying to ORD.
ReplyDeleteSeems that some people are in denial about ORD's viability as a profitable route for the airline.
DeleteDenial? I see them flying 3 weekly in summer and weekly in winter. I don't have an issue with it. I personally don't use the route, as I assume 99% of people giving their expert armchair oppinions here. I understand it would make you happiest if they declared bankruptcy tomorrow, but that's another story.
DeleteI don't see an issue. They are maintining the 1 weekly flight for the diaspora which at that time of year has low demand. Meanwhile, there are nuerous European carriers cutting US flights. Not just frequnecies but destinations too. Demand for travel to the US from around the world has crashed. Btw Serbia has been imposed with some of the highest tarrifs on imports to the US, impacting cargo demand too.
ReplyDeleteThanks to diaspora the route is making it, but the question is where are the rest of the transfer passengers from the network?
DeleteWe all remember Marek saying in 2023 that ORD is a success and that they will add extra frequencies soon.
Something is definitely off with their initial projections.
Give me the link where he said that. Especially about adding extra frequnecies because I know he didn't say that. I have noticed a lot of people here likle to make things up when they write comments.
DeleteAgree
DeleteAir Serbia is trying to move away from diaspora by building a hub in Belgrade. They need to be more agile and able in getting them to fly via BEG.
DeleteTariffs are irrelevant as they weren't there last year when they reduced flights to just one weekly.
AUH daily A330 flights will happen instead. you heard it here first
ReplyDeleteInstead of what? They fly to ORD in winter as they did last winter.
DeleteThat 2nd weekly flight was the bottleneck on that day
DeleteI believe that they should have tried to operate it with a YYZ stop instead of cutting frequencies.
ReplyDeleteWhy? Toronto is even worse than Chicago since it's more expensive and it's a major Star Alliance fortress hub where Air Canada and their allies rule.
DeleteWith a single weekly flight they won't be able to do much besides get the crumbs others have left behind.
I meant to keep 2pw but operate them with a stop in YYZ to give it a try and fulfill what they were talking about for 10 years.
DeleteAnd who should pay for the losses flying triangles with no fifth freedom rights would accumulate?
DeleteNo need for fifth freedom rights.
DeleteSure. You don`t sell tickets for one leg, but hell, you need to pay for landing&handling. Seams like a good job.
DeleteIt's not the optimal solution but like that, you could keep higher frequencies and make your route more competitive. Like this, a regular passenger is really constrained to fly with JU and would likely opt for LH / TK / KL.
DeleteAlso, don't forget the handling fees for the 24-hour parking of a plane @ ORD which will now be the case.
Maybe they'll send one A330 to Phuket, Male this winter.
ReplyDeleteIs there a sufficient market to operate a sufficient series of flights?
DeleteAnd again you leave the airplane and crew for 24 hours or you fly back leaving the crew one week there? The crew will be happy, no doubts, will such an operation be economical, I doubt.
And this must be initiated by agencies, not by JU.
The market is here, I think it's no problem for the crew to rest in Bangkok or Phuket before the return charter to Belgrade.
DeleteMarek's brilliance once more comes to light:
ReplyDelete' “It was a good decision that we went to one weekly. Over the winter, we managed to increase our load factor to over 80% on the Chicago route, which is good because we channelled the demand during that one day of the week. If we hadn’t reduced it, the alternative was to have it seasonal. We trialled a one weekly service the previous winter, which was a very good decision. It is clear we will keep the route year-round and during the next winter it will also most likely be once per week”.'
Right, so instead of improving your product, investing in marketing, building customer loyalty... they went for the easy way out and reduced flights. He says the alternative would have been to make it a seasonal operation. Of course since they are not doing more to consolidate their year-round operations over there.
Chicago is a massive market with a lot of demand to the Balkans, an area JU is covering quite extensively. Passengers are there in winter, they might not be as many as in summer but they are there. Air Serbia has failed and is still failing to capture them.
On top of that, ORD is a huge UA base so many potential passengers are members of the Star Alliance loyalty program. Air Serbia needs to convince them to make the switch to flying directly instead of via one of the Star Hubs.
In reality and if we do not sugarcoat it, this is JU's failure to consolidate their position in Chicago. If the CEO says that cutting flights is the right thing to do instead of investing into growing there then there isn't much to add really.
Air Serbia should aim to grow on a year-round basis. Given his statements and their one weekly presence there he obviously doesn't know how to stimulate additional demand. It's ok, his old employer LOT will profit from their inertia.
This is not Varna or some tertiary, regional airport, this is Chicago we are talking about.
I believe they should start some more feeding routes to "make Chicago great again". Firstly, Banjaluka, as it appears to me that lots of the "new" Serbian diaspora does not actually come from Serbia. Maybe something could be done in Southern Poland, but they`d have to engage into a price war with LOT there, so... I`m not so sure. Any other possibilities_ Well, Ireland is quite of a backtrack...
DeleteNemjee you are 100% right!
DeleteAnd I'm sure 9 out of 10 people here agree with your assessment. Apart from the usual cheerleading suspects of course.
JU needs a closer cooperation with American Airlines in order to get better feed in ORD. UA seems far to committed to sending its passengers to eastern Europe and the Balkans via FRA and MUC.
AA would be a tremendous asset in MIA too for JU.
@Anonymous 11:02A
DeleteAlbania, Greece and the Middle East would be the best sources of connections to ORD. Sadly JU has abandoned TLV, BEY, AMM, CAI.
BEG, TIA, SKG and ATH should be enough to fill two weekly in winter. However, people flying to these markets need to:
Delete1. know JU is flying to ORD.
2. actually chose to fly on JU because they want to.
This is where you need a good product, competitive pricing and strong marketing. Long-term they should work harder to position themselves on the Italy-US market. BEG is not so much out of the way.
If Lufthansa can sell Utah, Colorado etc. via SFO then those flying between Italy and the US can do it via BEG.
Yes, Italians could do it. As for Albanians, a flight to Valona should be introduced, now that the airport is fresh, also connecting to US-bound flights.
DeleteAlthough developing the Belgrade hub further is going to be quite of a challenge, as it starts to get congested.
DeleteNemjee, what are you writing about would hold if the situation is anywhere near normal. But it’s not. America is on the verge of bankruptcy, Trump is doing his best to restore economy, but that’s a long shot. Similar is in most of European countries, so these timea are not so well for traveling, particularly long haul.
Delete^ Actually long haul travel is at a record high!
DeleteAnd the US3 can't get enough aircraft to satisfy the long haul demand.
If you bothered to read more about it, you would know it's at record levels due to OUTBOUND tourism. Meanwhile arrivals to the US are down by almost 10%. The dollar is strong making the US expensive and passport control in the US has become awful.
DeleteEconomy is struggling globally and JU is making the right decision. ORD has low yeald for Europe from November to March, and every EU airline struggling on that route . Americans mostly travel to Florida and majority do not even know more then 5 Europian countries. Diaspora makes JU flights full and they can only afford to do so ones a year. Some families travel every few years
DeleteSo what was their excuse last year when they cut this route to just one weekly? It makes no sense. Americans are traveling more than ever and other European airlines have (so far) not cut their winter flying to ORD. Heck, AA just the other day announced a whole bunch of new routes for summer 2026. Following your logic, does it mean that next summer JU will be boosting both ORD and JFK since US carriers are doing the same with their TATL flights?
DeleteORD is the only international airports in huge chunk of land going beyond the city of Chicago. The catchment area is heavily populated by Balkanites. Just like I wrote it before, the market is there, JU just failed to capture it. You know, when it comes to business, if you want to make it you have to make an effort. Seems like JU under Marek's leadership has done next to nothing to promote itself, not just in Serbia but overall.
@Anonymous12:27 the dollar is the weakest it has been in decades against all major world currencies!
DeleteIt is currently at 1.17$ to 1€.
What is LOT current frequency to Chicago?
DeleteSummer and winter
Delete12 weekly and 6 weekly.
DeleteMight want to keep in mind Poland has a population of 36.5 million people who can travel visa free to the US and there are 8.8 million Polish Americans making up almost 3% of the US population, most of which live in Chicago.
Belgrade-Chicago, Via Toronto?
ReplyDeleteOr Cleveland. Maybe even BEG-ZAG-ORD?
DeleteThese are very good suggestions and they would be great for the winter season in particular!
DeleteHow come those are good suggestions? Do some calculations yourself.
DeleteI have, you can capture a lot more traffic for just two extra hours of detour.
Delete43.324 pax / (240 flights in 2024. (both way) x cca 262 seats (aircraft capacity)) = 0.69
ReplyDeleteso load factor for the whole year is 69%
And that is why they reduced it in winter. In winter 23/24 they operated 2 weekly throughout. This year they will have total of around 52,000 seats.
DeleteYes, the market is a problem... the market which welcomed 80 million passengers in 2024 or 8.5% more than the year before. When looking at ORD's top 10 international destinations, 5 are located in Europe.
DeleteThe cake is there, JU just can't get a piece of it.
Nemjee +1
DeleteWhat 5 locations in Europe? Here in Milan, no flights from Chicago.
DeleteWhen looking at the top 10 busiest international routes from ORD, 5 are in Europe: LHR, CDG, FRA, MUC and DUB.
DeleteThat said, given the amount of people with Irish descent in the Midwest, this route is basically a gasto flight.
Better than burning the money but I think August was too early to give up on this… The other question is how far they can go with hub&spoke model during summer and effectively P2P during winter but for me as a tax payer it’s still better than loosing the money.
ReplyDeleteIs it possible to be hub and spokes in summer and P2P in winter?
DeleteIf you set a hub model it should run all the year.
No, you can't do that because it's impossible from an operational point of view. That is why airlines shift capacity with seasons. For example, once winter comes to Europe, airlines redirect some of it to the southern hemisphere where people go to escape the cold.
DeleteThat is why many on here have advocated for JU to introduce seasonal flights (or charters) to warmer destinations.
I think it's a last moment for JU to officially announce some of already announced winter expansion feeding routes to Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia
ReplyDeleteJU does not even have tickets for any of their destinations in sale for SUTT26.
DeleteToo little feed for their long haul flights.
ReplyDeleteWith notorious low frequencies to anywhere.
^ Unfortunately yes!
DeletePalermo and Catania just twice a week. Mykonos the same ...Poor!