I remember when OU was far ahead of Jat Airways and look at it today...

Pre pandemic Montenegro and YM were very dependent on Russian tourists.
They have done a good job of diversifying their market and naturally Air Montenegro benefits

I agree but the airline is very untransparent. We read news here and there how the government secures them an aircraft, but what does that even mean? In all the Montenegro EU progress reports, state aid to the airline is listed as an issue, so they are likely still getting state support in a significant volume.

Air Montenegro is stable but not competitive yet.

We will see how they do this year considering the Wizz competition.

This year they will again get huge amounts of money from the government in the form of PSO.

That will make them the same as JU and OU in that department.

Yes

Great math

Ha ha ha

Air Serbia did account for 65% of passengers from the total figure

Just 18%!

https://www.exyuaviation.com/2026/01/former-yugoslav-airports-handle-39.html

That's really poor actually.

Extremely poor

The gap between Air Serbia and the other two is getting bigger every year.

Air Serbia revenue of €719 million vs Croatia’s €269 million. That gap is massive

At this rate, Air Serbia could soon be larger than the other two combined.

Air Serbia’s growth is impressive but how much of it is dependent on transfer traffic that could disappear quickly if conditions change?

If anything we've seen transfer traffic rises when 'conditions' change. I would be more worried about the economic situation in Serbia and how that may affect domestic demand.

You are right. Everything relating to Serbia and Air Serbia is terrible. Hope you can now continue your day in peace.

@09:50

You can use that same argument on any airline. Just look at the ME3 for a recent example. There are alot of "what if" scenarios in aviation.

@09:50 40% however you forget that for the most part air Serbia offers transfers between European destinations. Its doing in the region what other heavily dependent european airlines do. I wouldnt be so alarmist in that regards.

+1

78% load factor is solid but not spectacular. There is still room for optimisation.

It is even less considering the LF is calculated according to IATS´s ASK weighted average load factor calculation. Longer routes push the LF up quite a bit.

* IATA´s

When publicly reporting load factor, airlines simply use raw passenger data divided by capacity. Your IATA calculation is used internally by airlines for network analysis

That is not correct- IATA airlines do report the weighted ASK average LF as a standard. Non IATA airlines like Ryanair do it the way you describe.

An airline with more ASK (longer flights) will push up the LF networkwise quite a bit.

Yes, Air Serbia has 2% load factor. It's because they fly to New York that is 78%.

Well it is not just the one long haul destination served by JU- New York- I do not know what the ASKs are, but JU also flies longer routes altogether- like LIS, SVO, VLC, MLA and many others whse distance is farther. That is a fact.

You can not make this stuff up. Some people are so desperate it's sad hahaha.

Never mind, it's the same for JU and any other IATA airline so it's comparable.

Croatia Airlines needs a serious rethink. Either boost frequencies or cut unprofitable routes – this middle ground isn’t working.

Croatia Airlines’ fleet renewal is poorly timed. Investing heavily while still below 2019 traffic levels is risky.

The real test will be post A220 rollout.

If they are still around past the roll out

Croatia Airlines is suffering from competition by Ryanair more than anything else.

Competition is a problem for OU but not the main one. Their operations have been unprofitable for years while operating out of a major European tourism destination. They've failed to take advantage of every opportunity thrown at them, they've done nothing to optimise schedules while a lack of adequate growth has allowed for competition to jump in. Taking on the A220 has only made a bad situation worse.

Well put

Croatia Airlines increasing flights but still losing money suggests weak yields or poor route planning.

cost per seat data would also be interesting.

No airline publishes their cost per seat data. It's a business secrete for a reason.

Bravo OU?

Please try to understand him. He wants so badly OU to be among profitable airlines in ex Yu.

The region clearly cannot sustain three strong flag carriers at equal levels. Let alone more.

I didn't say there should be more. I just think it's sad.

Why? The remaining states of the region are very small. The fact that Montenegro has managed to survive is quite a wonder. Its not sad. Just reality. If I was a North Macedonian or Bosnian tax payer i would rather the state invested in renovating the railways and roads than pumping money into an airline. The demand for travel can be covered by large foreign carriers better than they could ever do.

However tax payer funds are not adequately being spent on improving infrastructure. I haven't noticed a renaissance of Slovenian infrastructure since the collapse of JP. JA has been bankrupt for 11 years, how large of an improvement do we see in BiH infrastructure?

Bosnia's roads are improving given the country's economic woes and geographical difficulties making construction very expensive. North Macedonia has fairly good roads althouh the motorway to Ohrid has been slow. But pumping money into state airlines would be a very bad use of funds needed for the railways etc.

Experts thinks that numbera are false. It’s not possible to earn money at Balkans. Everything is conspiracy theory

There was a time when OU was making some money, Adria too, so yes, it's possible.

You mean when they sold Pleso prijevoz?

Hard to compare these airlines directly when one operates long-haul and the others don’t. It’s not really the same business model.

Exactly. And not only that. Different markets, different realities. Serbia has a strong diaspora and transit position, Croatia is heavily seasonal, Montenegro even more so.

The Serbian market is also heavily seasonal however JU is active in mitigating the effects of this issue (new routes launched in the winter months, turning seasonal routes into year round destinations, charter routes into seasonal routes allowing for a longer season etc). Passenger numbers at BEG double during the summer months.
Diaspora isn't necessarily a factor for JU's growth (I doubt there is a strong Serbian diaspora in cities such as Tbilisi, Seville, Palermo, Alghero, Krakow etc).
JU's long haul growth is coming from the fact that they have been active in strengthening their regional operations to further boost the viability of such routes. The only reason why OU hasn't launched long haul routes is due to OU's own incompetencey.

It's just not comparable. Montenegro has to cover 2 airports with 3 planes; Croatia has airports which are dead for 8 months and then have to handle almost all-year air transport in several months on majority of its airports. It's nightmare for fleet organization and utilization. OU is doing it really bad, but the markets are completely different, and it's not just about look how JU can do it, working almost exclusively from one airport all year. That's a no-go both for Croatia Airlines and Air Montenegro.

Right so JU has it easiest and that's why it does well. Otherwise Jasmin Bajic would be making millions for OU if it were covering one airport. The things you read here.

The markets are different but similar. Croatia is heavy on inbound tourism while Serbia is more outbound. However, both markets are similar in the aspect of being highly seasonal.

Organising operations can be easy or complicated depending on the strategy the airline wishes to take. A3 is also an airline in a heavily seasonal, tourism market with operations from multiple airports across Greece yet thrives. OU has no adequate strategy behind it hence the issues it faces. OU has failed to establish any meaningful hub in ZAG, is too focused on connecting Croatia with Germany and neglects major European markets visiting Croatia (Italy, Spain, UK). Anything east of Croatia is as if it doesn't exist. And this is scratching the surface of their issues.

For cargo traffic you need either strong industry production or strong trade market; neither of those exists on ex yu market, ok

JU is not so small actually. Even by European standards.

All ex Yu countries are small by European standards.
So?

JU is middle for European standards lets agree on that lol. And yes the economies of all thr ex yu countires are essentially footnotes on the wider market, but important and valuable to those who live and operate in them as any country is to its inhabitants.

+1

+100

Given Serbia's less than easy political development in the past 30years this is even more impressive and important for Belgrade and the country. I would also argue for regional connectivity which JU provides very well.

Tell us, please

OU has had a fair bit of government support (PSO, unpaid loans) and is still unprofitable. JU repaid loans given to them during Covid and PSO funds JU receives isn't crucial for their profitability. Hypothetically, even if JU recieved additional funds or subsidies it wouldn't be at an amount that would dramatically affect their profitability.

Anon 12:20
Why do you destroy their poor attempts to insinuate how JU is getting "indirectly" support from Serbian Government?
🤣

1.75m if Condor PAX are included

Air Montenegro is not dominant on its home market either. It is something like the third or fourth busiest.

@11:15 that statement is a bit strange. Do you expect an airline from this region to dominate in another market? They're never going to. Its about being strong in their own market

2 of these 3 can't even launch any flight from any foreign market

not dominate but their market share in other ExYU markets is very low

Well JU fly to every airport in Croatia bar Osijek (which some strange people believe could work). They fly to almost every airport they politically can fly to in the former yugoslavia. Of course they wont have huge market shares, they can't send A320s to Mostar and Skopje now can they? Coverage is outstanding from Belgrade.

It's crazy they don't share codes at least on tricky routes like Dublin, Manchester, Moscow, China, would be beneficial for both (but not for LH)

Croatia Airlines fly to neither Dublin nor Manchester from Zagreb making that a non-starter. Nor would they wish to code share to Moscow in the other direction. While cooperation would be interesting its not going to happen.