Air Serbia and Croatia Airlines are increasing the number of available seats and flights next month, with the two national carriers approaching pre-pandemic levels in both metrics. Based on data provided by Cirium, Air Serbia has scheduled a total of 1.649 flights in March, which is at 84% on the same month during the pre-pandemic 2019. On the other hand, Croatia Airlines plans to operate 1.460 flights, which is also at 84% on pre-pandemic levels. As reported yesterday, both airlines will be increasing frequencies on select routes during March, with Air Serbia also restoring flights to four destinations - Banja Luka, Brussels, Sofia and Thessaloniki - while Croatia Airlines will increase frequencies to Germany, Austria and Switzerland.
In terms of available seats, Air Serbia has put 186.852 tickets on sale for the month of March, reaching 87% of available capacity during the same month in 2019. Its Croatian counterpart has 149.374 seats on sale during the coming month, down 20% on March 2019. Changes to the number of scheduled flights, which directly impacts available seat capacity, remains possible, with airlines responding quickly to both an increase and decline in demand as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, with countries across Europe lifting all entry requirements, consumer confidence is expected to rebound from next month onwards.
The figures are in contrast to the slow month of February, which was impacted by the emergence of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus late last year, which hit travel demand and saw the reintroduction of strict entry requirements across a number of European markets. During February, Air Serbia is operating 1.146 flights, which is at 66% of the pre-pandemic February of 2019, while seat capacity stands at 131.952, down 30% on the same month three years ago. On the other hand, Croatia Airlines is operating more flights this month than its Serbian counterpart, with 1.238 operations, down 20%. However, it is doing so with smaller Dash 8 turboprop aircraft, resulting in a 31% decline in capacity compared to the pre-pandemic era with the airline offering 119.460 seats this month.
I'm surprised they will already be up to over 80% next month. That means by summer they could actually be at pre-Covid levels.
ReplyDeleteNot necessarily. OU's capacity compared to 2019 will drastically reduce from May as they don't plan to restore any of the multiple routes they suspended from Zagreb with exception to Barcelona. These seasonal routes always began in May.
DeleteCorrect, I forgot about that. I do hope they bring back more routes besides Barcelona.
DeleteSo OU had more flights than Air Serbia this month but over 12,000 seats less!
ReplyDeleteBecause they are operating a lot of flights with Q400s.
DeleteIt also probably means that OU had much fewer losses in February than Air Serbia.
DeleteHigh utilisation of Q400 by OU is a mart decision in these times.
DeleteUtilization of Q400 says something about a part of the variable costs, nothing about their revenues (you can still fly empty Q400) nor fixed costs, so also not much about losses.
DeleteProbably JU is losing more with empty A319/320 but it is just the fleet structure.
DeleteCapacity and flight numbers are great but the real metric of recovery will be passenger numbers and whether there is enough to fill those seats.
ReplyDeleteLoad factor would be interesting to see.
DeleteThe real metric is financial results and these are not always linked to load factor or passenger numbers. A lot of factors impact on financial performance, from operational costs to cargo.
DeleteIt would be interesting to see which route is best performing for both airlines. Both passengers wise and financially.
ReplyDeleteI know in terms of capacity that Croatia Airlines usually has the most seats to Frankfurt, then Dubrovnik and Split.
DeleteAs for Air Serbia, it is usually Zurich, Podgorica and Paris at this time of year.
DeleteThis is actually much better than I thought.
ReplyDeleteSame. I'm surprised their capacity is so high vs 2019.
DeleteMore of an indication that both airlines have unsuitable aircraft.
DeleteI don't think aircraft size is as much of a problem as much as their ticketing policies. O&D air fares are waaay too high at both companies.
DeleteOU for example doesn't have ZAG-DBV for under 100€ yet they receive subsidies for the route. ZAG-TGD on the other hand 15€. Fares are for the same dates, end of March.
JU isn't any better. I could buy 4 return tickets to Stockholm for the price of 1 to TGD, with TGD being amongst the cheapest destinations in ex-YU.
I'm not saying both should compete with ULCC's with 10€ fares, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 30-40€ fares for example BEG-TIV return with no luggage. Introduce those fares and you will see more of the O&D market move from busses to aircraft, as well as flights with less empty seats.
Question is how many flights each airline will cancel in March.
ReplyDeleteConsidering countries are lifting restrictions, maybe they actually schedule more flights rather than cancel.
DeleteWhat a drastic difference between February and March.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget that February also has fewer days than March or any month in the year.
DeleteThe number of flights for both are peanuts compared to other European airlines.
ReplyDeleteIn the region is probably among the higher figures.
DeleteMore than Aegean, Turkish, Wizz Air? Are you serious?
DeleteMost countries in the region don't have a national airline :D
DeleteJU and OU cut less in ex-YU than Wizz Air.
DeleteRyanair too, In ZAG they suspended 7 routes in January and February.
DeleteHope bookings are performing well too.
ReplyDeleteWell JU did say that plan to be operating at pre-Covid levels by the end of the year.
ReplyDeleteThey might be back with capacity and flight operations but I doubt they will be at pre Covid levels in terms of passenger numbers.
DeleteWhat is the share difference between OU and FR in Zagreb? I think Ryanair is getting close.
ReplyDeleteRyanair has double the number of destinations to Croatia Airlines from Zagreb.
DeleteBut Croatia Airlines has double the number of flights.
DeleteThey are however flying only twice per week to their destinations while OU has at least daily flughts to their destinations.
DeleteActually I find that OU just has a lot of frequencies to LH hubs - especially Frankfurt while to others not much difference to Ryanair. I mean Rome is 3 times per week via Split...
Delete^ That's why Ryanair's busiest routes from Zagreb are Rome and Dublin. Rome because Croatia Airlines' turboprop flight via Dubrovnik is completely uncompetitive and with Dublin we have already seen Croatia Airlines retreat by suspending flights until April.
Delete@9.29 they actually have very decent frequencies to Paris, Amsterdam and Copenhagen as well, so it's not just Lufthansa hubs.
DeleteFlightwise OU has much more. But would be interesting to see capacity. We see in this example that OU has more flights than JU in February but much less capacity.
DeleteThese are some encouraging numbers.
ReplyDeleteFebruary was weak.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of the number of flights, it is not bad for Croatia Airlines at 80% of 2019 levels.
DeleteIt's weak for everyone in the industry.
DeleteRyanair has +2% so not for everyone
Delete+2% on which year?
DeleteIf OU has more flights than you, I would really start asking myself some questions at JU.
ReplyDeleteJU's reduction in February was huge. They removed a lot of planned flights.
Delete^ They have the biggest network and amount of flights so...
DeleteIt might be an indication that they are taking much more care of their financial performance.
DeleteThey just messed up in January and February. Hope it will not impact their year result significantly but JU could have better start of the year.
DeleteThey messed up? Have you heard of Omicron?
DeleteI have but it seems 150k passengers at BEG who opted for some other airline in January haven't
DeleteGood luck to both of them.
ReplyDeleteUntil EU lifts entry bans, there will be no full recovery for JU
ReplyDeleteYes especially since you have a major market like Italy where Serbian citizens have to go into 10 day quarantine regardless of vaccination status.
DeleteWhat ridiculous rules.
DeleteItaly is calling the rules off as of 17.04.
DeleteYes these rules have had a big impact on JU. Thankfully they have a lot of transfers which has kept their network alive during the pandemic.
DeleteGood to know! And especially important for JU that those rules are ending considering they will have so many destinations in Italy this summer.
DeleteBoth of these are heavily dependent on their states. Without the states, they would collapse in a matter of days, maximum month. Especially in the current conditions.
ReplyDeleteBut they are also important for the states and their economies, otherwise they would not sponsor them.
DeleteIt is really sad that all mentioned companies are still alive only due to illegal support (one way or another) of their governments.
DeleteThat applies to almost every single flag carrier in Europe!
DeleteThe subsidies made available to OU are in full compliance with EU regulations so I would not refer to them as illegal.
DeleteYeah sure. LOL
DeleteWell, that is what one says when one has no argument.
DeleteThere is no point to argue with you. Read the terms of Croatia Airlines' restructuring 10 years ago and how the government gave them tens of millions of euros in 2019 (before corona) in direct violation of that restructuring agreement.
DeleteThe subsidies are legal. I am not arguing, simply refusing to accept your BS as a fact.
DeleteAgain, read the restructuring agreement and let me know for how many years is OU forbidden from receiving state aid and subsidies. Then calculate how many years passed by 2019.
DeleteNice
ReplyDeleteAny estimates on how many passengers each could handle by the end of the year?
ReplyDeleteThe year has just started so it's really hard to make the estimation. Furthermore, I think we still don't know OU performance in 2021?
DeleteWe will know their 2021 result by the end of the week. From what I've heard it was an absolute disaster with minimal increase on 2020. But let's wait for official numbers in the next couple of days.
DeleteNo surprise there, you reap what you sow and OU didn't sow anything last year
DeleteYes there is talk of just 4% increase on 2020 which would be an absolute disgrace so I refuse to believe it could have been so bad but let's see.
DeleteIf that figure is true, then it means that Ryanair is having a massive impact on them. It could also explain why they are not doing anything.
DeleteThey did report +4.3% for Q1-Q3 2021 and with Ryan's continued expansion I doubt they performed better in Q4
DeleteOU's growth in 2021 should be around 25% in total. Growth at ZAG is the slowest and SPU highest.
DeleteThat would mean they had +95% in Q4. Let's wait and see
Delete@An.11.29
DeleteFully agree, just with one small correction : not just last year, it's last 25 years
Very small numbers in general when you think about it
ReplyDeleteWell there is the issue of the global pandemic.
DeleteShould be even better than April.
ReplyDeleteLet's hope June and July are at 2019 levels :)
DeleteRange of JU destinations is quite good
ReplyDeleteIt is really sad that we are down to only two serious national airlines in ex-Yu.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see how Air Serbia performs this year. They are facing a lot of competition on some key routes. KLM will have two daily flights to Amsterdam which is huge competition. Wizz Air will be competing directly against them on two more routes - Rome and Barcelona and Red Wings plans to start Rostov which will take away P2P passengers.
ReplyDeleteThey are facing a lot of competition. We saw that their share at BEG reduced dramatically this January.
DeleteI think AMS is the one to watch. During summer 2019 JU was operating 10 pw. Getting more slots in AMS I believe back then was a problem, as the Dutch put a limit to the amount of flights AMS can handle even if capacity wise it could take on more. If JU operate at least daily they should be fine. They also codeshare with KLM.
DeleteLCC's have always failed on the BEG-Italy market. Wizz hasn't so far been successful with their BEG-Italy flights, while JU was flying to 3 destinations year round pre pandemic (FCO, MXP, VCE) while another 3 will be launched this summer (BLQ, TRS and BRI seasonal).
BCN was a success for JU, prior to the pandemic they intended to increase their frequencies for summer 2020. JU is doubling their destination list to Spain this year with VLC and PMI as their new additions. I don't think JU will have a problem there, and Wizz will just be healthy competition.
As for ROV, there isn't much of an O&D market for 2 carriers. JU has the upper hand with their hub in BEG, where JU is offering their entire network for connections while Red Wings has no hub in ROV. If Red Wings do launch flights, I don't think they will last long.
JU and KL codeshare only for transfers, not p2p.
Deletethat's interesting. Didn't even know such codeshares existed where you don't code on the P2P route. What's the reason though?
DeleteAlso will be important to see how Croatia Airlines can perform this year. Its the first full years of Ryanair's operations from Zagreb. It will be a very tough battle for them, especially since they have shown to be very poorly prepared to compete.
ReplyDeleteThe rocketing price of oil definitely won't help either airline with the financial recovery.
ReplyDeleteAs if either airline cares about finances.
Delete84% on pre Covid numbers is very high. I wonder what are the rates at other European airlines like LH group, Air France, LOT... Anyone know?
ReplyDeleteI don't know for March, but right now the change in number of operations compared to 2019 is: Ryan +1%, Turkish -20%, Wizz -22%, AF -40%, Lufthansa -50%
DeletePerhaps a bit overly ambitious with the March schedule.
ReplyDeleteWhy?
Delete^ Air Serbia is back and i like that.
ReplyDeleteI think Air Serbia will have breathing room in March because foreigners are being cautions with their flights out of BEG. I looked at two weeks in March (week of 7th and 14th) and this is what I found:
ReplyDeleteMUC goes from 12 to 13 and their flight on 16th is upgraded from CRJ900 to A319.
FRA from 9 to 10.
VIE stays as 11 but the Friday flight out of BEG was upgraded from E95 to A320.
ZRH with LX stays as 14 both weeks but first week their Wednesday flight is upgraded from A220 to A320neo and then the week after to A321neo.
Only increase by Wizz Air is EIN which goes from 2 to 3 weekly and then the week after to 5.
LO is also 5 weekly but some flight have been upgraded from E70 to E75.
April will be a real challenge for JU as that's when Wizz Air resumes most of their suspended routes and when they boost almost all existing ones. Wizz Air is currently hiring in BEG (crew) and I think that's why they are responding only in April.
EW resumes STR in April and DUS is being launched in May.
DY is increasing OSL from 2 to 3 weekly in April and then 4 weekly in May.
From March 27, Turkish Airlines is adding their third daily flight.
All in all there are a lot of additions planned from April so Air Serbia has to make sure it faces its competitors with a competitive schedule otherwise they are going to be run over like in January.
I know it's easy to sit behind the screen and write comments but it looks like JU could have started their expansion earlier. It looks like demand for Middle East&other leisure destinations made difference in January (and February) and JU didn't have a lot to offer in that department. They are bringing back some routes in April and starting launch of new destinations, but maybe they can revise launch dates for some, introducing them before June. Of course it would have to be coordinated with fleet renewal plan.
DeleteThen it means their sales team did a really poor job. Then again why should they care when all losses will be covered.
DeleteLet's be fair - it's really not easy to plan these days. But JU said they are constantly developing different scenarios which seems as correct way to do business during crisis. It just looks like some scenario they didn't think of actually happened in January.
Delete@14,55
DeleteI agree. JU should definitely start launching routes earlier. Even current seasonal routes start later than they should ie DBV and SPU.